2017 Australian Open Final: FEDAL XXXV

[El Dude]

Here it is, folks. For such a lop-sided match-up, it is awfully storied and very exciting. Vote and discuss.

FYI: We will have the live chat open for this match.

 

[DarthFed]

RE: 2017 Australian Open Final: FEDAL XXV

Worst nightmare realized. This won't be a match, Rafa looked fresh as a daisy in the 5th today, hitting harder and moving faster than he had in the 4 sets before it (not suspicious at all...). We know this drill by now.

 

[El Dude]

RE: 2017 Australian Open Final: FEDAL XXV

Here's a visual depiction of their 24 matches so far.

 

[El Dude]

RE: 2017 Australian Open Final: FEDAL XXV

Worst nightmare realized. This won't be a match, Rafa looked fresh as a daisy in the 5th today, hitting harder and moving faster than he had in the 4 sets before it (not suspicious at all...). We know this drill by now.

I see that you're not a bel18ver, Darth . But I feel your pain. I don't think I will be able to watch the match - thank the gods it will be in the early AM my time.

That said, I do have hope. Clearly Rafa is the favorite, maybe even heavy favorite, but this isn't 2013 when Rafa was unbeatable and Roger struggling. And this isn't the old AO - this is a fast hard-court. I'd probably give Rafa 2-to-1 odds, but that's better than it could be.

 

[lob]

RE: 2017 Australian Open Final: FEDAL XXV

I am going out on a limb here but Dude this is over. Roger won't win this even if he starts with a free set and has to just win two out of the remaining four sets. Congrats to loyal Rafa fans. Well deserved!

Sent from my 6045O using Tapatalk

 

[DarthFed]

RE: 2017 Australian Open Final: FEDAL XXV

At age 35 Roger can't move like Grigor was today or play as consistently off the backhand wing. Really the only chance is an incredible day serving and even that might not be enough. This was a patented match where Rafa was generally outplayed but just refused to lose...and he didn't.

 

[El Dude]

RE: 2017 Australian Open Final: FEDAL XXV

That's pretty much it, Darth. Actually, I think what you said solves the GOAT debate: Roger is the greater tennis player, but Rafa is the greater competitor.

 

[Puppet Master]

RE: 2017 Australian Open Final: FEDAL XXV

Dude, check out my prediction on the Grigor vs Nadal match. Come on, check it and then come back to read the rest of my post.

Ok done? Good.
Coincidentally, they played here in 2014 , but that match isn't a good indicator of what could happen, as it was with Grigor because the circumstances are too different.
I will say this. Grigor now moves better than Roger, he is steadier in rallies, clearly has more power in both his serve and the groundstrokes are debatable at least. But in the end only a few points decided it.
Roger will have to play absolutely lights out if he wants to win this one for real, which I expect he does.
If he peaks, like in the Berdych match, and Nadal shows up playing like he did today, it will be a very tight contest.
None of them can afford to show up lame come Sunday, because the other will destroy him. I also believe that Federer could probably hang on with Rafa if it goes 5 sets, Roger is way past his prime, but so is Rafa.
I still don't know who takes it. I will giveit a day and then try.

 

[the AntiPusher]

RE: 2017 Australian Open Final: FEDAL XXV

At age 35 Roger can't move like Grigor was today or play as consistently off the backhand wing. Really the only chance is an incredible day serving and even that might not be enough. This was a patented match where Rafa was generally outplayed but just refused to lose...and he didn't.

In the immortal words of Kieran, "Darth:emperor: is a "Front" in regards to Nadal" :snicker


Welcome to the party , pal :claps

 

[AnonymousFan]

RE: 2017 Australian Open Final: FEDAL XXV

Federer in four.

Winner isn't obvious like it was in 2014 IMO.

 

[the AntiPusher]

RE: 2017 Australian Open Final: FEDAL XXV

Dude, check out my prediction on the Grigor vs Nadal match. Come on, check it and then come back to read the rest of my post.

Ok done? Good.
Coincidentally, they played here in 2014 , but that match isn't a good indicator of what could happen, as it was with Grigor because the circumstances are too different.
I will say this. Grigor now moves better than Roger, he is steadier in rallies, clearly has more power in both his serve and the groundstrokes are debatable at least. But in the end only a few points decided it.
Roger will have to play absolutely lights out if he wants to win this one for real, which I expect he does.
If he peaks, like in the Berdych match, and Nadal shows up playing like he did today, it will be a very tight contest.
None of them can afford to show up lame come Sunday, because the other will destroy him. I also believe that Federer could probably hang on with Rafa if it goes 5 sets, Roger is way past his prime, but so is Rafa.
I still don't know who takes it. I will giveit a day and then try.

"Rafa past his prime "

I do understand why you say this but I disagree because let's give him time this Year to see if he can regain his form..if he can win a few master series and find a way to make another adjustment to dealing with Djoker then "Past his prime, He may not Be !"

 

[DarthFed]

RE: 2017 Australian Open Final: FEDAL XXV

That's pretty much it, Darth. Actually, I think what you said solves the GOAT debate: Roger is the greater tennis player, but Rafa is the greater competitor.

Completely agree with that. It's impossible not to admire that about Rafa, he is the ultimate fighter. I of course was rooting for a DF or unforced error at 3-4 15-40 but even I couldn't help but applaud Rafa for what he did after. And I think everyone in the building knew the match was over at that point.

Roger is a much greater talent but on top of the H2H with Rafa he has never made the most of his opportunities. Counting the win against Stan I believe Roger is now 4-9 in 5 set matches in GS semis and finals, the worst stat of his career. 41 GS semis is absolutely absurd whereas Rafa only has 25 and yet come Sunday chances are he will only be down 2 in the slam count.

 

[DarthFed]

RE: 2017 Australian Open Final: FEDAL XXV

At age 35 Roger can't move like Grigor was today or play as consistently off the backhand wing. Really the only chance is an incredible day serving and even that might not be enough. This was a patented match where Rafa was generally outplayed but just refused to lose...and he didn't.

In the immortal words of Kieran, "Darth:emperor: is a "Front" in regards to Nadal" :snicker


Welcome to the party , pal :claps

Congrats on your boy's run here AP. I hate the POS more than ever, even during his awful 2015 and 2016 when all his losing made others feel sorry for him. Had a bad feeling he might be rejuvenated especially after seeing Nole's game fall off a cliff the last 7 months. If Nole was there today Rafa probably wouldn't have made his way to the semi IMO and if he did he would've lost.

Sad to see Kieran on vacation for so long :devil

 

[Puppet Master]

RE: 2017 Australian Open Final: FEDAL XXV

Dude, check out my prediction on the Grigor vs Nadal match. Come on, check it and then come back to read the rest of my post.

Ok done? Good.
Coincidentally, they played here in 2014 , but that match isn't a good indicator of what could happen, as it was with Grigor because the circumstances are too different.
I will say this. Grigor now moves better than Roger, he is steadier in rallies, clearly has more power in both his serve and the groundstrokes are debatable at least. But in the end only a few points decided it.
Roger will have to play absolutely lights out if he wants to win this one for real, which I expect he does.
If he peaks, like in the Berdych match, and Nadal shows up playing like he did today, it will be a very tight contest.
None of them can afford to show up lame come Sunday, because the other will destroy him. I also believe that Federer could probably hang on with Rafa if it goes 5 sets, Roger is way past his prime, but so is Rafa.
I still don't know who takes it. I will giveit a day and then try.

"Rafa past his prime "

I do understand why you say this but I disagree because let's give him time this Year to see if he can regain his form..if he can win a few master series and find a way to make another adjustment to dealing with Djoker then "Past his prime, He may not Be !"

Rafa's physical prime was from when he was 19 to about 25. The guy is a beast. After those years, his max intensity and footspeed has dropped off little by little. I mean the legend himself acknowledged it. It's no secret.
By no means am I saying that Rafa isn't capable of winning grand slams, or something absurd like that. I am merely saying that Rafa's once huge physical edge over Roger is not so huge anymore. It's also no secret that Nadal can't play 3 consecutive sets with full intensity. There will be a dip in play. Roger when extended, experiences almost the same issues. It's just that he rushes his opponents so much it's over before they know it.

 

[Frode789]

RE: 2017 Australian Open Final: FEDAL XXV

Sadly Federer will lose (again) in a GS final vs Nadal. Usually when Fededer meets Nadal in a GS final, he will drop his game, regardless of how great he may have played previously in the tournament or not. He's got Nadal on his brain, his UEs goes up up, while his 1st serve % goes down, down.. I do expect a reasonably tight match, it might even go to 5 sets, but Nadal will surely win. Either 4 or 5 sets. I'd give Federer a 25% chance. I'd be shocked to my core if Federer manages to win this GS. Happy of course, but I really doubt it will happen, ever, when Nadal is on the other side of the net.

 

[the AntiPusher]

RE: 2017 Australian Open Final: FEDAL XXV

At age 35 Roger can't move like Grigor was today or play as consistently off the backhand wing. Really the only chance is an incredible day serving and even that might not be enough. This was a patented match where Rafa was generally outplayed but just refused to lose...and he didn't.

In the immortal words of Kieran, "Darth:emperor: is a "Front" in regards to Nadal" :snicker


Welcome to the party , pal :claps

Congrats on your boy's run here AP. I hate the POS more than ever, even during his awful 2015 and 2016 when all his losing made others feel sorry for him. Had a bad feeling he might be rejuvenated especially after seeing Nole's game fall off a cliff the last 7 months. If Nole was there today Rafa probably wouldn't have made his way to the semi IMO and if he did he would've lost.

Sad to see Kieran on vacation for so long :devil

Thanks Darth
Congrats to your Beloved..

As for Kieran, he hasn't taken enough vacations or sabbaticals over the past 18 months for my tastes ..I don't miss that stubborn Irish American television beinge watching dude not one bit:snicker

 

[mrzz]

RE: 2017 Australian Open Final: FEDAL XXV

One thing Federer does much better than Dimitrov is to volley, and Dimitrov lost a lot of net points Federer wouldn´t. Them both like stupid approach shots, and one thing that baffled me today is that Dimitrov fired a lot of approach shots right to Nadal´s hand.. and some of them actually worked.

More wishful thinking than anything, and I´ll go with Federer in three. Rational arguments never mattered that much in this match up, anyway. The only one I have is that Nadal is no longer the confidence beast he once was.

 

[the AntiPusher]

RE: 2017 Australian Open Final: FEDAL XXV

Dude, check out my prediction on the Grigor vs Nadal match. Come on, check it and then come back to read the rest of my post.

Ok done? Good.
Coincidentally, they played here in 2014 , but that match isn't a good indicator of what could happen, as it was with Grigor because the circumstances are too different.
I will say this. Grigor now moves better than Roger, he is steadier in rallies, clearly has more power in both his serve and the groundstrokes are debatable at least. But in the end only a few points decided it.
Roger will have to play absolutely lights out if he wants to win this one for real, which I expect he does.
If he peaks, like in the Berdych match, and Nadal shows up playing like he did today, it will be a very tight contest.
None of them can afford to show up lame come Sunday, because the other will destroy him. I also believe that Federer could probably hang on with Rafa if it goes 5 sets, Roger is way past his prime, but so is Rafa.
I still don't know who takes it. I will giveit a day and then try.

"Rafa past his prime "

I do understand why you say this but I disagree because let's give him time this Year to see if he can regain his form..if he can win a few master series and find a way to make another adjustment to dealing with Djoker then "Past his prime, He may not Be !"

Rafa's physical prime was from when he was 19 to about 25. The guy is a beast. After those years, his max intensity and footspeed has dropped off little by little. I mean the legend himself acknowledged it. It's no secret.
By no means am I saying that Rafa isn't capable of winning grand slams, or something absurd like that. I am merely saying that Rafa's once huge physical edge over Roger is not so huge anymore. It's also no secret that Nadal can't play 3 consecutive sets with full intensity. There will be a dip in play. Roger when extended, experiences almost the same issues. It's just that he rushes his opponents so much it's over before they know it.

No No..I get what you are saying and I agree with it..However..I am not so sure if Rafa in his prime had the skills in the front or forecourt (the area from around the net to the service line ) to defeat Dimitrov last night. Dimitrov played strong almost like a terminator all the way throughout the match and I couldn't see any chinks in his armor..I was chatting with my fellow Rafa fans throughout the match and I thought the only nuisance that may help Rafa was to hit low to Grigor's backhand..(also more flat first serves instead of the spin serves which Rafa has a tendency to fall in love with but just like Serena spin serve, it's the serve that can go wayward if the server is nervous. )

Rafa's coming forward and controlling the net was the big difference maker..Grigor began slowly at the net but clean up his game mid way in the 2nd set.

 

[El Dude]

RE: 2017 Australian Open Final: FEDAL XXV

Roger is also more experienced, smarter, and with more finesse and weapons than Grigor. Yes, he doesn't have that movement anymore, but Grigor tried to out-physical Rafa, a task only one player in tennis history has really been able to do: Novak Djokovic. So where Roger will lose ground in movement and pure physicality, he will gain it back in experience, tactics, and subtleties of play that Grigor simply doesn't have.

I'm also not 100% convinced that Rafa will be able to easily bounce back from this five-hour match. He isn't 22 anymore. He's still a beast, and should be fine, but he might drop a notch after this one.

That said, Rafa still has the edge. But I won't give up hope...

 

[DarthFed]

RE: 2017 Australian Open Final: FEDAL XXV

In the immortal words of Kieran, "Darth:emperor: is a "Front" in regards to Nadal" :snicker


Welcome to the party , pal :claps

Congrats on your boy's run here AP. I hate the POS more than ever, even during his awful 2015 and 2016 when all his losing made others feel sorry for him. Had a bad feeling he might be rejuvenated especially after seeing Nole's game fall off a cliff the last 7 months. If Nole was there today Rafa probably wouldn't have made his way to the semi IMO and if he did he would've lost.

Sad to see Kieran on vacation for so long :devil

Thanks Darth
Congrats to your Beloved..

As for Kieran, he hasn't taken enough vacations or sabbaticals over the past 18 months for my tastes ..I don't miss that stubborn Irish American television beinge watching dude not one bit:snicker

I doubt it will be a congrats come Sunday. I didn't expect Roger to make the finals here of course but nothing surprises me with him aside from seeing it all the way through. I doubt he does that this Sunday.

Unlike Rafa he doesn't need to move well to go deep in these tourneys. He was moving great against Kei and Berd but he looked like a turtle against Stan. I figured coming into this year he'd have a good chance to win Wimbledon, now I think he "should" win Wimbledon but you could argue that's been the case for nearly 15 years now. He's always one of if not the main favorites there until he retires. And if he wants to play until age 40 + he will still be making the occasional runs like this because a lack of movement doesn't kill his chances like it does to the other members of the Big 4.