2015 Wimbledon Semifinal: Federer v. Murray

[Moxie]

Coin toss! I'm excited for this semi! Flashbacks to the 2012 Olympics and Wimbledon!

No flashback. You must remember that Roger won against Del Potro in the semifinals with a scoreline of 19-17 in the last set. That kind of sapped Roger's emotional energies (not so much physical energies). Hence, Murray had an easy win in Olympic finals.

Having said that, Let me also say that Fed will not take Andy to Woodshed like he did in O2 last year. It will be a competitive and interesting match.

Obviously, Roger was pretty sapped in that Olympics final. (Call it emotional or physical...I think it was both. Del Potro looked like he'd win that match, but Roger simply refused to lose it.) But Andy was incredibly pressured in the just-previous Wimbledon final. So I agree the dynamics will be different. And I think the crowd will, as well. Not that that will fuss Roger. Both will look to get out to a fast start. Probably more nerves from Andy, but as the match goes on, I like his chances better and better. Look to Roger to blow a closing opportunity in a set, which will energize the crowd and Murray. (Hey, why not...if we're making predictions? :laydownlaughing )

 

[crystalfire]

I would say Roger has 30% chance of winning this in three sets, 50% chance of winning this in four sets and 5% chance of winning this in five sets. Murray's only chance of winning this will be in five sets, which I peg at 15%.

or fed could shank everything in which case murray has a 70% chance of winning this in 3 or 4. you never know with fed these days

 

[nehmeth]

I would say Roger has 30% chance of winning this in three sets, 50% chance of winning this in four sets and 5% chance of winning this in five sets. Murray's only chance of winning this will be in five sets, which I peg at 15%.

or fed could shank everything in which case murray has a 70% chance of winning this in 3 or 4. you never know with fed these days

Why would he, after playing so well this whole tournament, suddenly turn into Shankenstein?? :nono

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

I would say Roger has 30% chance of winning this in three sets, 50% chance of winning this in four sets and 5% chance of winning this in five sets. Murray's only chance of winning this will be in five sets, which I peg at 15%.

or fed could shank everything in which case murray has a 70% chance of winning this in 3 or 4. you never know with fed these days

Why would he, after playing so well this whole tournament, suddenly turn into Shankenstein?? :nono

I will answer this one: Because he played on his own terms so far. Murray can take him out of that zone. He has been able to do that even when he was a pup. Roger HAS to play his game to win.

 

[Moxie]

or fed could shank everything in which case murray has a 70% chance of winning this in 3 or 4. you never know with fed these days

Why would he, after playing so well this whole tournament, suddenly turn into Shankenstein?? :nono

I will answer this one: Because he played on his own terms so far. Murray can take him out of that zone. He has been able to do that even when he was a pup. Roger HAS to play his game to win.

Those are two very good points.

 

[nehmeth]

or fed could shank everything in which case murray has a 70% chance of winning this in 3 or 4. you never know with fed these days

Why would he, after playing so well this whole tournament, suddenly turn into Shankenstein?? :nono

I will answer this one: Because he played on his own terms so far. Murray can take him out of that zone. He has been able to do that even when he was a pup. Roger HAS to play his game to win.

When I posited my question, both points were understood. I've watched these guys all week, and while Murray's given Roger difficulty in their previous meetings, I think the old guy is in a good enough groove to be able to stay with it and win.

If Shankenstein shows up, then obviously I was wrong... sticking with Fed in four.

 

[DarthFed]

I would say Roger has 30% chance of winning this in three sets, 50% chance of winning this in four sets and 5% chance of winning this in five sets. Murray's only chance of winning this will be in five sets, which I peg at 15%.

I'm optimistic and think Roger "should" win but I wouldn't have even called their 2012 final an 85/15 match for Roger. I think it's closer to 60/40. I've noticed that Murray has served pretty well this fortnight and he does have the big first. That's probably the key to the match. A bad day serving for Roger on grass is low 60's% first serves, a bad day for Murray is low 50's or worse.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I would say Roger has 30% chance of winning this in three sets, 50% chance of winning this in four sets and 5% chance of winning this in five sets. Murray's only chance of winning this will be in five sets, which I peg at 15%.

I'm optimistic and think Roger "should" win but I wouldn't have even called their 2012 final an 85/15 match for Roger. I think it's closer to 60/40. I've noticed that Murray has served pretty well this fortnight and he does have the big first. That's probably the key to the match. A bad day serving for Roger on grass is low 60's% first serves, a bad day for Murray is low 50's or worse.

I just checked what the bookies think about it. The odds for AM is 5/6 ad for RF is 6/5.
This works out to 55% chances for Andy and 45% chances for Fed as per the bookies. But, I think your figures are more realistic than mine or the bookies.

 

[crystalfire]

Why would he, after playing so well this whole tournament, suddenly turn into Shankenstein?? :nono

I will answer this one: Because he played on his own terms so far. Murray can take him out of that zone. He has been able to do that even when he was a pup. Roger HAS to play his game to win.

When I posited my question, both points were understood. I've watched these guys all week, and while Murray's given Roger difficulty in their previous meetings, I think the old guy is in a good enough groove to be able to stay with it and win.

If Shankenstein shows up, then obviously I was wrong... sticking with Fed in four.

i hope your right but i have seen fed play well most of a tourney only to go awol near the business end of tourney so im not saying anything until he actually wins the next 2 matches

 

[DarthFed]

Not that surprised. I would've seen it like that a week ago and the bookies are going to open the line based on who would've been favored in this matchup at the start of the tourney.

But I'm sure BS will be here relating this all to the 2008 match

 

[Carol]

In these last months Muzz is a "new player", more relaxed and playing much better. He also wants to win this tournament very badly and he will have most of the crowd in his side though I'm sure many Swiss will be there too
Hope Muzz will win in four and also to win the final :clap

 

[Johnsteinbeck]

or fed could shank everything in which case murray has a 70% chance of winning this in 3 or 4. you never know with fed these days

Why would he, after playing so well this whole tournament, suddenly turn into Shankenstein?? :nono

I will answer this one: Because he played on his own terms so far. Murray can take him out of that zone. He has been able to do that even when he was a pup. Roger HAS to play his game to win.

funny thing is that Murray actually was more able/likely to do it when he was a pup than he has in the past. the h2h since has turned more and more in favor of Fed over the last years (last year, Murray won just one set (in a tie break) in three matches).

that said, i still lean towards Murray - in five, because i think he'll take a couple of mental walkabouts, a la AO '13 semis.

 

[Federberg]

Not that surprised. I would've seen it like that a week ago and the bookies are going to open the line based on who would've been favored in this matchup at the start of the tourney.

But I'm sure BS will be here relating this all to the 2008 match

There'll be a huge amount of distortion in the betting odds right now as a lot of British punters will betting on Murray. If you listen to the press here, you would think that Federer is an old decrepit has been. They think that Murray will be too strong for him. We shall see!

 

[Federberg]

Why would he, after playing so well this whole tournament, suddenly turn into Shankenstein?? :nono

I will answer this one: Because he played on his own terms so far. Murray can take him out of that zone. He has been able to do that even when he was a pup. Roger HAS to play his game to win.

funny thing is that Murray actually was more able/likely to do it when he was a pup than he has in the past. the h2h since has turned more and more in favor of Fed over the last years (last year, Murray won just one set (in a tie break) in three matches).

that said, i still lean towards Murray - in five, because i think he'll take a couple of mental walkabouts, a la AO '13 semis.

I agree. Everyone gets caught up with this head to head, but if you actually look at the last 5 or 6 times they've played, it's been virtually all Federer. He has worked out what he needs to do to beat Murray. Even when he lost to him at the AO a few years back he had played some long matches beforehand, and you could see he hated the idea of losing to him. He even shouted an insult at him if I recall correctly. I have been cautious about this semi since the start of the tournament because I needed to see if Roger was forced to exert himself beforehand. That simply hasn't been the case, so Andy is facing a fully fit and rested Federer. If Murray pulls off a win I will be very impressed. I just can't see it. Unlike the Federer Djokovic match up, Andy is far less of a threat to a good serving Federer. In fact the match up tends to be more about how many first serves Andy can get in play, because Federer really gets his teeth into the Murray second serve. Really looking forward to this one, it's a real pity it isn't the final

 

[nehmeth]

^^^^
Had "like" stamped all over it, until the last sentence. If Andy wins, I too will be very impressed, but I think Fed has his foot on McToothy's neck in this one.

 

[Federberg]

^^^^
Had "like" stamped all over it, until the last sentence. If Andy wins, I too will be very impressed, but I think Fed has his foot on McToothy's neck in this one.

:lolz:
my bad! Just from a British fan perspective (and also I would rather Roger faced Murray in a final :snicker)

 

[isabelle]

King Muzza in 5 and he'll arive washed in final !!

 

[bobvance]

It's so hard for me to be objective when I'm predicting Federer matches so I'm not even going to try. I do think Roger is returning and hitting the backhand better than he was even a few years ago when he was still "young" (2010-2011ish) and his serve has obviously been pretty good this tournament. The nice thing is that this one will come down to who has the better day which is something I can live with as a Fed fan. I wouldn't be too devastated if Murray pulled this off but I can't explain how much I would love to see the old man get a crack at number 18.

 

[Federberg]

^I'm with you Bob. To be honest, I would almost rather see him win the US Open than Wimbledon. It's almost perverse to say that, but for the life of me I can't understand how his performance there have just evaporated after 5 in a row! :devil

 

[britbox]

Nothing would surprise me, but I'm liking Fed in 4.