I haven't watched a minute of Berdych this tournament yet, so I can't quite tell how he's playing, but his scorelines have been straightforward enough. He needs a really dominating service performance. I remember when they played here three years ago (I still can't believe it's been that long), it turned into a surprisingly fantastic match, with Berdych really close to getting a 2 sets to love lead but lost the second in a tie-break and then Nadal played otherworldly tennis from there.
Back then though, Rafa was moving and defending better than he is now, and Berdych needs to recognize that. In that match, it was one of the few times Berdych has actually been able to get on top of the rallies consistently (at least in the first two sets) and move Nadal around. That was facilitated by the fact Berdych was serving terrific and getting plenty of weak replies on the return.
There are some things that always bothered Berdych in this match-up that are kind of surprising given his size. Unlike other big men with a huge game, he really struggles to deal with Rafa's serve on the return, and fails to get on top of the second serve. Rafa's spin bothers him immensely so Nadal finds it easy to expose his movement and move him around. Berdych's cross court backhand doesn't trouble Rafa as much as say, someone like Del Potro. It is no coincidence that both Nadal's DTL forehand and inside out forehands always look great against Berdych, because he's able to open up the court with ease with his CC forehand.
So Berdych needs to be more aggressive than usual on the return to put pressure on Rafa, and also take his backhand earlier to get on top of the rallies early as once he gets caught behind he'll be yoyo'd. I keep referring to that above-mentioned AO 2012 match-up because it was one of the few times Berdych was able to do some of these things, and he forced Nadal to kick it into another gear to prevail. He needs to do something similar, especially since I'm not sure Nadal has that gear in him now.
Rafa's backhand has looked good this tournament, and his serve has looked better than I thought in the past two matches. If his forehand catches fire it'll be trouble for Berdych. Perhaps the change of coaches will be useful for Berdych and allow him to come in with a more aggressive game-plan, but if he doesn't, this won't end any different to their previous million meetings.
One thing to keep in mind is the rallies will be longer than the Anderson match, so Rafa needs to be in top physical shape.
I'll take Nadal in straights though if Berdych is ever going to do it, now would be the time.
Highlights of their 2012 match:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cg_rP8B0JoM (Part 1)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Z7_AvoNZbM (Part 2)
