tented said:
If Rafa were to face Roger in the first round, then, yes, it would be a golden opportunity for Federer to beat Rafa at a slam for the first time since 2007. However, given that they would meet in a SF, that would mean Rafa will have had five rounds, and nearly two weeks to play himself into form. That's an entirely different scenario than meeting on the first day of the tournament.
I'm answering here your post from the other thread, Tented.
Yes, the above is completely true, but even if Nadal makes it to the semis I'll give Federer a shot. Yes, the obvious thing to happen is a repeat of the last events, and for some is very palatable to think of it as a sure thing.
But it is not, and that's a point I'm willing to make for a while: from mid-2014 onwards, Federer's backhand is simply much more solid. Match in, match out, you see much less shanks, much less UFE's from that wing. I did not check the stats, but I saw a fair share of matches to be quite sure of this.
Surely Nadal will test it more than the others, but one way or another the difference is there, and statistically he will get much less free points from there. And there's a side effect, as Federer wont need to take that much unnecessary risks knowing that he might miss the very next ball. All else being equal (which, by the way, it is not) just that is enough to see that he has a better shot than he had in 2013 and 2014.
Am I saying that Federer is a lock to beat Nadal at the AUSO? Hell, no. Am I saying that he is the favourite? No (he needs to beat him at least once this year for me take this step). I am saying he has a good, I would say around 40%, chance to beat him if they meet.
And, if I was him, I would
want the chance to do that.