2014 Slam Challenge! Australian Open

El Dude

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By request, I'm getting this going again for 2014 - let's try to get more participation this year!

The rules are below, but with one significant change from last year:

I've actually expanded the rules a bit to make it a bit more interesting - adding four quarterfinalists, and slightly adjusting the points to keep it an even number (see below).

2014 SLAM PREDICTION CHALLENGE - RULES
  • How to Play - Pick a Winner, Runner-up, two Semifinalists, four Quarterfinalists, one Dark Horse and one Wildcard candidate for each Slam.
  • Points - 12 Winner, 8 Runner-up, 3 Semifinalist, 1 Quarterfinalist for a total of 30 possible. Note that points are not cumulative, but you do get points if a player finishes lower than what you picked (e.g. If you pick Djokovic to win but he's the runner-up, you still get 8 points; if you pick Murray to be the runner-up but he wins, you only get the 8 points you picked him for).
  • Dark Horse - Gets points for whatever their final position is; they cannot have won a Slam within the last two calendar years, or eight Slams (thus if Federer doesn't win any Slams through Wimbledon this year, he could be picked as a Dark Horse at the US Open as his last Slam win was 2012 Wimbledon).
  • Wildcard - Gets points as the Dark Horse, but cannot be ranked in the top 10 at the beginning of the tournament.
  • Tiebreakers - After the US Open will be handled by predictions for the World Tour Finals.
  • Missing Slams - Members who want to join after the AO or miss a later Slam get a total number of points equal to the lowest score for the missed Slam, minus one point (For instance, if the lowest score for the AO is 14 and you missed participation, you start Roland Garros with 13 points)
  • Late Penalty - You can make your picks without penalty until the first serve of Round 1 on Monday, January 13th. After that there will be a -3 point penalty per day, so if you're late by a day or two you still can accrue some decent points!

Good luck and have at it!

p.s. secrettennisjunkie is the reigning champion from 2013, with kskate2 the runner-up and Moxie629 coming in third.
 

El Dude

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My (tentative and off-the-cuff) picks as a place holder, just in case I forget to vote before Monday.

W - Djokovic
F - Nadal
SF - Federer, Ferrer
QF - Murray, Del Potro, Berdych, Wawrinka
Dark Horse - Janowicz
Wildcard - Dimitrov
 

rafanoy1992

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Game on, El Dude!

W: Nadal
F: Djokovic
SF: Ferrer, Murray
QF: Federer, Del Potro, Berdych, Wawrinka
Dark Horse: Raonic
Wild Card: Hewitt (home slam)
 

GameSetAndMath

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My first cut.

W: Djokovic
R: Del Potro
SF: Federer, Berdych
QF: Nadal, Isner, Ferrer, Wawrinka
Dark Horse: Tsonga
Wild Card: Raonic
 

Luxilon Borg

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Winner: Nadal
Finalist: Djokovic
Semis: Del Potro, Wawrinka
Quarters: Federer, Murray, Berdych, Ferrer
Dark Horse:Tsonga
Wildcard: Hewitt
 

Riotbeard

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Winner: Djokovic
Runner-Up: Nadal
Semi-finalist: Federer, Murray
Quarterfinalist: Raonic, Tsonga, Wawrinka, Ferrer
DarkHorse: Del Potro
WildCard: Janowicz
 

GameSetAndMath

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Riotbeard said:
Winner: Djokovic
Runner-Up: Nadal
Semi-finalist: Federer, Murray
Quarterfinalist: Raonic, Tsonga, Wawrinka, Ferrer
DarkHorse: Del Potro
WildCard: Janowicz

Fed and Murray cannot both be semifinalists. See the draw RB
 

El Dude

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GameSetAndMath said:
Fed and Murray cannot both be semifinalists. See the draw RB

That's true, but the rules of the challenge don't say you can't pick both. Actually, by picking both he increases his chances of getting SF points. Its a strategy, if not one I'd follow.

For instance, let's look at a couple scenarios:

Scenario One
Pick: Federer SF, Murray SF
Results: Federer SF, Murray QF (or vice versa)
Points: 4

Scenario Two
Pick: Federer SF, Murray QF
Results: Federer SF, Murray QF
Points: 4

Scenario Three
Pick: Federer SF, Murray QF
Results: Federer QF, Murray SF
Results: 2

Scenario One is what Riotbeard is doing. Two is picking one but not the other; it works the same as One if you pick correctly. Three shows the problem of NOT picking both - you've got to pick them correctly or you only get half points.

What's the downside of picking both? Well, you miss out on the other half likely semifinalists like Berdych or Ferrer. Its basically throwing in the towel on that quarter. In other words, by picking both Roger and Andy, Riotbeard couldn't get SF points from the other half's draw.
 

Denis

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W: Djokovic
RU: Nadal
S: Murray, Ferrer
Qf: wawrinka, del Porto, federer, berdych
Dark horse: tsonga
Wildcard: Cilic
 

Kieran

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W: Rafa
RU: Nole
S: Federer, JJ
QF: DP, Berdy, Murray, Wawrinka
Dark Horse: Del Potro
Wild Card: Dimitrov
 

Riotbeard

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Riotbeard said:
Winner: Djokovic
Runner-Up: Nadal
Semi-finalist: Federer, Murray
Quarterfinalist: Raonic, Tsonga, Wawrinka, Ferrer
DarkHorse: Del Potro
WildCard: Janowicz

Had not looked at the draw yet, so some adjustments. There are intentional double ups in the quarters...

Winner: Djokovic
Runner-Up: Nadal
Semi-finalist: Murray, Ferrer
Quarterfinalist: Wawrinka, Berdych, Federer, Tsonga
DarkHorse: Del Potro
WildCard: Janowicz
 

ftan

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My picks for now:

W: Djokovic
R: Rafa
SF: Murray, Berdych
QF: Federer, Delpo, Ferrer, Berdych
Dark Horse: Wawrinka
Wild Card: JJ
 

the AntiPusher

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W: Rafa Nadal
R: Djoker
SF: Murray, JMDP
QF: Berdych, Federer, Ferrer, Wawrinka
Dark Horse: Tsonga
Wild Card: Raonic
 

Moxie

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El Dude said:
GameSetAndMath said:
Fed and Murray cannot both be semifinalists. See the draw RB

That's true, but the rules of the challenge don't say you can't pick both. Actually, by picking both he increases his chances of getting SF points. Its a strategy, if not one I'd follow.

For instance, let's look at a couple scenarios:

Scenario One
Pick: Federer SF, Murray SF
Results: Federer SF, Murray QF (or vice versa)
Points: 4

Scenario Two
Pick: Federer SF, Murray QF
Results: Federer SF, Murray QF
Points: 4

Scenario Three
Pick: Federer SF, Murray QF
Results: Federer QF, Murray SF
Results: 2

Scenario One is what Riotbeard is doing. Two is picking one but not the other; it works the same as One if you pick correctly. Three shows the problem of NOT picking both - you've got to pick them correctly or you only get half points.

What's the downside of picking both? Well, you miss out on the other half likely semifinalists like Berdych or Ferrer. Its basically throwing in the towel on that quarter. In other words, by picking both Roger and Andy, Riotbeard couldn't get SF points from the other half's draw.

And every pick has to be unique, right? Like, I can't pick JMDP for the QFs AND as my Dark Horse? 10 different players?

PS: I was going to set up a group for the TC Racquet Bracket Challenge. That's just for the fun of working through the draw, and playing as a team, as opposed to this one, which is our very own exclusive Challenge.
 

El Dude

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Moxie629 said:
And every pick has to be unique, right? Like, I can't pick JMDP for the QFs AND as my Dark Horse? 10 different players?

I didn't say in the rules but yeah, I think so -they should be different players. Plus, in the above example, it just wouldn't make sense to waste your QF on Del Potro unless you could double up points, which wouldn't make sense. 10 unique players it is.

PS: I was going to set up a group for the TC Racquet Bracket Challenge. That's just for the fun of working through the draw, and playing as a team, as opposed to this one, which is our very own exclusive Challenge.[/quote]

Sounds good - let us know when its set up.
 

Moxie

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I've got the rules now, and I have set up the Racket Bracket Challenge. It's a fun way for folks to work through the draw, and I find it helps with this one.

Winner: Nadal
Runner-up: Djokovic
Semi-Finals: Tsonga, Berdych
Quarterfinals: Ferrer, Wawrinka, Federer, Murray
Dark Horse: Del Potro
Wild Card: Janowicz
 

rahulpawar

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This list is with the assumption that it is required to submit 10 unique players.

Winner : Nadal
Runner up : Djoker
SFs : Berdych, Murray
QFs : Ferrer, Tsonga, Wawrinka, Federer
Dark Horse : Del Potro
Wild Card : Janowicz
 

askh

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W: Nadal
RU: Djokovic
SF: Murray, Ferrer
QF: Delpo, Federer, Berdych,Wawrinka
Dark Horse: Tsonga
Wild Card: Cilic
 

Goldenboy

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Winner: Rafa
Runner up: Djokovic.
SF: Federer, Berdych
QF: Del Potro, Ferrer, Kohlscreiber, Wawrinka
Dark Horse: Tsonga
Wild Card: Verdasco
 

britbox

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Winner: Djokovic
Runner up: Nadal
SF: Murray, Berdych
QF: Del Potro, Federer, Youzhny, Wawrinka
Dark Horse: Tsonga
Wild Card: Haas