2014 Roland Garros (French Open) May 25 - June 8, 2014: (Main Draw in Post #1)

[TennisFanatic7]

I'm expecting Berdych and Raonic to fall before the quarters but I reckon the rest of the top 8 seeds should make it without too much trouble. Ferrer could have trouble with Dimitrov but I reckon he'll come through.

 

[Front242]

Just hope Nishikori's fitness doesn't cause him to lose early again although it likely will if he can't compete properly physically even in best of 3.

 

[TsarMatt]

Just hope Nishikori's fitness doesn't cause him to lose early again although it likely will if he can't compete properly physically even in best of 3.

That's the problem.

If he can't play a week of best-of-3 tennis consistently, I doubt he could do any better across two weeks and best-of-5. Shame, too, because he is capable of causing a major upset if his body let him. He's really developed over the last year.

 

[Front242]

^ Yup. The way he's been playing he could beat anyone. Hope Chang forces him to really get stronger and fitter and if he can do that he'll be a major force next year or even later this year.

 

[Moose]

Kohlschreiber takes out Murray 3rd round. Kohli's been known to take 3rd round scalps over the years.

Stan got a gift of a draw - ddon't see anything slowing him down up to Nadal (and btw, thank you for finally putting Stan on Rafa's side after these last few Wawrinka/Nole slam showdowns).

I hope badly that Ernests holds it together mentally as long as possible, because I think he beats Fed.

Looking forward to a Dolgo/Kei 3rd round, becuase 1) I like watching both of them play, and 2) I think the winner of that match plays Nole in the 1/4s.

This is a good draw for Novak to work through for getting ready to win his first French title

 

[shawnbm]

THIS IS THE YEAR! That is what we have heard since last year--the year a player becomes the first to win a DOUBLE career grand slam and, the heavens will open and the spirit of tennis nirvana will descend, and Roger Federer will be the first to accomplish this feat, even though we all thought it would be Nadal in Melbourne. Silly rabbits (we are), tricks are for kids, and those who blindly contest tennis divine intervention in favor of the Chosen One!!!!

 

[Ricardo]

hahaha, wishful thinking can make one very happy. For that to even be possible to happen, we know someone needs to do the dirty work (taking out Nadal).

 

[El Dude]

Love it, shawnbm, but to be honest I think the Great One doesn't have much more of a chance to win Roland Garros - which would imply beating at least one of Novak and Rafa - as I have of a "chance encounter" with Ana Ivanovic, but it could happen!

[video=youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGdhc9k07Ms[/video]

 

[El Dude]

Seriously though, I'd give Roger's chances against Rafa and Novak at this point being something like this:

vs. RAFA
3 sets, hard ~15%
3 sets, grass ~30%
3 sets, clay ~5%
Slam, hard ~10%
Slam, grass ~20%
Slam, clay ~1%

vs. NOVAK
3 sets, hard ~30%
3 sets, grass ~40%
3 sets, clay ~20%
Slam, hard ~15%
Slam, grass ~25%
Slam, clay ~10%

Or something like that. Obviously much better chances against Novak, but still very slim at Roland Garros.

 

[El Dude]

As for the question of the poll, I am really torn between Novak and Rafa. Novak seems to have re-captured the edge against Rafa, but Roland Garros is Rafa's kingdom. That said, last year was so close...

Anyhow, I can't wait to see them duke it out in the final! I'd probably give Rafa 55-45 odds, but that's about as close as it's ever been.

 

[shawnbm]

As between Rafa and Nole in the final, I really could not say who--based on current form--I would bet money on. It is pretty much a 50/50 deal for me.

 

[DarthFed]

Seriously though, I'd give Roger's chances against Rafa and Novak at this point being something like this:

vs. RAFA
3 sets, hard ~15%
3 sets, grass ~30%
3 sets, clay ~5%
Slam, hard ~10%
Slam, grass ~20%
Slam, clay ~1%

vs. NOVAK
3 sets, hard ~30%
3 sets, grass ~40%
3 sets, clay ~20%
Slam, hard ~15%
Slam, grass ~25%
Slam, clay ~10%

Or something like that. Obviously much better chances against Novak, but still very slim at Roland Garros.

The odds against Novak are way too low across the board. It'd be probably about 50% or more on grass and 40% or more at USO while 10% or less at AO and I'd say 30% at RG. Against Rafa at AO we are talking less than 5% probably.

 

[TennisFanatic7]

I'd give Federer a much better chance than 20% of beating Nadal at Wimbledon. Rafa has won one grass court match in the last two years while Federer has won a Wimbledon, reached the Olympic finals and won Halle.

 

[britbox]

Seriously though, I'd give Roger's chances against Rafa and Novak at this point being something like this:

vs. RAFA
3 sets, hard ~15%
3 sets, grass ~30%
3 sets, clay ~5%
Slam, hard ~10%
Slam, grass ~20%
Slam, clay ~1%

vs. NOVAK
3 sets, hard ~30%
3 sets, grass ~40%
3 sets, clay ~20%
Slam, hard ~15%
Slam, grass ~25%
Slam, clay ~10%

Or something like that. Obviously much better chances against Novak, but still very slim at Roland Garros.

The odds against Novak are way too low across the board. It'd be probably about 50% or more on grass and 40% or more at USO while 10% or less at AO and I'd say 30% at RG. Against Rafa at AO we are talking less than 5% probably.

Agreed on Novak.

By the way, if somebody takes Nadal out at RG, then Federer is a real "live" contendor. He'd be second favourite in my opinion if Nadal is despatched. I've got a feeling Stan isn't going to make the semis regardless of what goes on around him.

 

[Sundaymorningguy]

Well, I will say this is a rather balanced draw.

 

[Kieran]

^^ I agree with this, BB. It's called the GSM Quandary: an Unnamed Assassin takes out the King and Federer benefits, again. He's definitely going to throw himself into this one, sensing that Rafa is vulnerable. I think if it came down to him against Nole for a place in the final against Daveed, I'd also bet on Roger...

 

[Ricardo]

^^ I agree with this, BB. It's called the GSM Quandary: an Unnamed Assassin takes out the King and Federer benefits, again. He's definitely going to throw himself into this one, sensing that Rafa is vulnerable. I think if it came down to him against Nole for a place in the final against Daveed, I'd also bet on Roger...

no it's like this, an 'unhaired' Agassi takes out the Assassin (Hewitt) and Sampras benefits.

but no matter how Roger wins, you are always ready to draw asterisk around him. i know your move, told you...

 

[Kieran]

Most interesting first round matches:

Grigor v Karlo
Gasquet v Tomic
Raonic v Kyrgios

I expect the first names listed in each will win, but these could all be good four setters...well, Gasquet should win in three, but it's an interesting one! By the way, is Tomic's dad still banned from venues?

 

[Moose]

By the way, is Tomic's dad still banned from venues?

The ban ended last week, I think. But I read somewhere today that his father has not applied for credentials at RG.

 

[Kieran]

By the way, is Tomic's dad still banned from venues?

The ban ended last week, I think. But I read somewhere today that his father has not applied for credentials at RG.

Thanks Moose, that's interesting. So who's coaching him now? His dad is still listed as his coach on the ATP site.

I know he's a jerk, but I feel sorry for Bernard. He never stood a chance, being conditioned by a bully and a maniac...