2014 Crystal Ball

[Kieran]

Ah, so it's your fault Rafa lost! You jinxed him!

I agree - it's too early for predictions - which is why I asked what it was based upon to predict that Rafa's usual reign wouldn't continue. He did, after all, win the match with Nole this year. I don't mind people predicting whatever, but it's reasonable to ask why...

Yeah but he won it by the skin of his teeth which is why it's hardly that outlandish to assume Novak beats him there at some stage. After all, he's getting closer and got very close last year. No one besides Le Sod has got that close to beating him there.

We'll see, brother. I recall that when Rafa returned earlier this year, I said that because of his absence, Nole had a shot - of taking it to five sets. Well, he did that. But next year, if they meet, I predict he's gone in four. I think I have more justification for making that prediction than anyone has for saying Nole will beat him.

But let's wait and see, eh?

 

[Riotbeard]

Ah, so it's your fault Rafa lost! You jinxed him!

I agree - it's too early for predictions - which is why I asked what it was based upon to predict that Rafa's usual reign wouldn't continue. He did, after all, win the match with Nole this year. I don't mind people predicting whatever, but it's reasonable to ask why...

Yeah but he won it by the skin of his teeth which is why it's hardly that outlandish to assume Novak beats him there at some stage. After all, he's getting closer and got very close last year. No one besides Le Sod has got that close to beating him there.

We'll see, brother. I recall that when Rafa returned earlier this year, I said that because of his absence, Nole had a shot - of taking it to five sets. Well, he did that. But next year, if they meet, I predict he's gone in four. I think I have more justification for making that prediction than anyone has for saying Nole will beat him.

But let's wait and see, eh?

To be fair both players have higher levels on clay than what they showed in most of this years five setter. Rafa wasn't the only one who played just pretty good that day.

 

[Iona16]

He said "May be a factor," Iona...

I did read the post Kieran. He "may be factor" would also suggest that he thinks Murray may not be a factor.

 

[Kieran]

He said "May be a factor," Iona...

I did read the post Kieran. He "may be factor" would also suggest that he thinks Murray may not be a factor.

Well, I think we should give the benefit of the doubt, no? Of course, Murray may not be a factor, but that's not what he said...

 

[Iona16]

He said "May be a factor," Iona...

I did read the post Kieran. He "may be factor" would also suggest that he thinks Murray may not be a factor.

Well, I think we should give the benefit of the doubt, no? Of course, Murray may not be a factor, but that's not what he said...

You're such a smart grass.

 

[Moxie]

My prediction is we're going to be arguing about RG up until and past the final Sunday of that tournament. :laydownlaughing

 

[Kieran]

My prediction is we're going to be arguing about RG up until and past the final Sunday of that tournament. :laydownlaughing

We're still arguing about the last one, so why not? :laydownlaughing

 

[Moxie]

My prediction is we're going to be arguing about RG up until and past the final Sunday of that tournament. :laydownlaughing

We're still arguing about the last one, so why not? :laydownlaughing

So I've got a near-lock on that prediction. But to your point...

 

[Moxie]

You can't extrapolate things that way. Rafa isn't Roger, and I thought he did great to win Paris this year, given how long he was out and how poor he was the first week. Took a while to get back into the best of five format. If Rafa is fit and fighting next year at RG, I'd give Novak a set against him, no more...

Why can't it be extrapolated that way? It makes sense that with practice Djokovic will perform better against Nadal at RG and as much as Nadal fans will argue he could've won it in 4, he didn't and Djokovic could easily have won if not for that episode touching the net. When a match gets that close it comes down to confidence. Currently Djokovic is riding a huge wave of confidence and if he carries that to next year anything can happen. A lot of said confidence/momentum will be determined at the AO and subsequent events leading up to RG. Personally very much doubt that Novak wins just 1 set but we'll see! Far too early for either fanbase to get cocky.

Just to continue the endless argument about RG last year, and taking it into next year:

As I bolded above, and as you probably said a little carelessly, Djokovic could never have "easily" won that match…it was a 4'40" 5-setter, but you probably didn't really mean it that way. However, that "net-touch" is worming its way into folklore, in terms of what it meant. It wasn't game point, or the only game point of the match. It was one point. If it made Novak lose focus, that's his fault. He over-cooked that smash and lost the point. Full stop. It's not like he didn't have other chances to win the match, and he didn't have to drop serve two times to lose it.

That said, I agree that it's about confidence between Nadal and Djokovic. We'll see how they start out they year, and how they lead into RG, which is going to be Novak's goal, and Rafa's bulwark to defend until neither of them matters anymore, I'm sure. I think Kieran's point is not without merit: that there is every reason to believe that Rafa still has the best shot of winning it. You can argue that Novak is getting closer, but one might also argue he's getting farther away. He'll be 28 by the time the next finals are played, and he's only made one there. One wonders, after having won 8 times, if Rafa can keep it up for a 9th, but only Djokovic seems currently to stand in his way. That means Djokovic has to make the final. Statistically, the odds are still in Nadal's favor.

 

[tennisville]

What do think will happen in 2014, who do you think will win the big events next year . Any wild predictions will be appreciated as well . Maybe we can bump the thread in a years time to see how we did in predicting the big ones

For me the

AO: Murray
Rg: Djokovic
W: Nadal
UO: Djokovic
WTF Nadal

(Yes I believe Nadal wont win the french next year )

Ah, you've allocated these too neatly! It's like, let's give Nole his missing French and Rafa his missing WTF.

Why would you think Rafa won't win Paris? There's no reason to expect anything other than business as usual there...

I think Rafa wont win Paris because I believe Nole is catching him there.Before 2012 , he hadnt taken a set there . In 2012 he managed to take a set off Rafa and this year took 2 and was up a break in the fifth. He came pretty close there

So I believe next year he will get more closer and I believe Nadal will be worse next year than he was this year because he will be a year olden by then . So thats why I think Djokovic takes the French next year

Another reason might be is that Borgs records are jinxed. Nobody breaks them :snigger

 

[Kieran]

Ah, Borg's records are in the rearview mirror at this stage...

 

[brokenshoelace]

Another reason might be is that Borgs records are jinxed. Nobody breaks them :snigger

Rafa already broke them.

But I agree that at some point, Djokovic will catch up and win Roland Garros.

 

[herios]

You can't extrapolate things that way. Rafa isn't Roger, and I thought he did great to win Paris this year, given how long he was out and how poor he was the first week. Took a while to get back into the best of five format. If Rafa is fit and fighting next year at RG, I'd give Novak a set against him, no more...

Why can't it be extrapolated that way? It makes sense that with practice Djokovic will perform better against Nadal at RG and as much as Nadal fans will argue he could've won it in 4, he didn't and Djokovic could easily have won if not for that episode touching the net. When a match gets that close it comes down to confidence. Currently Djokovic is riding a huge wave of confidence and if he carries that to next year anything can happen. A lot of said confidence/momentum will be determined at the AO and subsequent events leading up to RG. Personally very much doubt that Novak wins just 1 set but we'll see! Far too early for either fanbase to get cocky.

Just to continue the endless argument about RG last year, and taking it into next year:

As I bolded above, and as you probably said a little carelessly, Djokovic could never have "easily" won that match…it was a 4'40" 5-setter, but you probably didn't really mean it that way. However, that "net-touch" is worming its way into folklore, in terms of what it meant. It wasn't game point, or the only game point of the match. It was one point. If it made Novak lose focus, that's his fault. He over-cooked that smash and lost the point. Full stop. It's not like he didn't have other chances to win the match, and he didn't have to drop serve two times to lose it.

You can argue that Novak is getting closer, but one might also argue he's getting farther away. He'll be 28 by the time the next finals are played, and he's only made one there.

You got the ages mixed up, Novak turns 27 this year, Rafa will be 28.

 

[brokenshoelace]

I love how every non-Rafa fan just conveniently ignores the minor detail of Nadal surrendering a break in the fourth, then after breaking again, failing to serve out the set. Yeah, I'm sure that's not as meaningful as one point early in the fifth.

The match shouldn't have gone to a fifth to begin with. The better player won that day. Of that there can be no doubt. Djokovic outplayed Nadal in the second set, and the the tie-break in the fourth. That's about it.

 

[Slasher1985]

Some bold predictions right here in this thread.

I'm only gonna go so far as to predict a R32 or R16 presence for Nick Kyrgios at the Australian Open if he has a good draw without any Top 10 player in the way.

 

[Riotbeard]

I love how every non-Rafa fan just conveniently ignores the minor detail of Nadal surrendering a break in the fourth, then after breaking again, failing to serve out the set. Yeah, I'm sure that's not as meaningful as one point early in the fifth.

The match shouldn't have gone to a fifth to begin with. The better player won that day. Of that there can be no doubt. Djokovic outplayed Nadal in the second set, and the the tie-break in the fourth. That's about it.

I don't think anybody forgets this. But in there matches one break is hardly tantamount to guaranteed winning of the set (although it felt like rafa had a good chance to close it out in 4, before Novak broke back). Djokovic did the same in the fifth. I think the overhead was an important turning point in the fifth, but it was djokovic's fault. It doesn't mean rafa should get any less credit. Matches are full of those moments, credit to Rafa for capitalizing pulling himself back in after surrendering the fourth and being down a break in the fifth.

 

[Riotbeard]

I love how every non-Rafa fan just conveniently ignores the minor detail of Nadal surrendering a break in the fourth, then after breaking again, failing to serve out the set. Yeah, I'm sure that's not as meaningful as one point early in the fifth.

The match shouldn't have gone to a fifth to begin with. The better player won that day. Of that there can be no doubt. Djokovic outplayed Nadal in the second set, and the the tie-break in the fourth. That's about it.

I also think it's more of a product of who lost, so who has regrets. If rafa had lost, I am sure there would be more conversation about him losing the fourth after being up a break.

 

[brokenshoelace]

I love how every non-Rafa fan just conveniently ignores the minor detail of Nadal surrendering a break in the fourth, then after breaking again, failing to serve out the set. Yeah, I'm sure that's not as meaningful as one point early in the fifth.

The match shouldn't have gone to a fifth to begin with. The better player won that day. Of that there can be no doubt. Djokovic outplayed Nadal in the second set, and the the tie-break in the fourth. That's about it.

I don't think anybody forgets this. But in there matches one break is hardly tantamount to guaranteed winning of the set (although it felt like rafa had a good chance to close it out in 4, before Novak broke back). Djokovic did the same in the fifth. I think the overhead was an important turning point in the fifth, but it was djokovic's fault. It doesn't mean rafa should get any less credit. Matches are full of those moments, credit to Rafa for capitalizing pulling himself back in after surrendering the fourth and being down a break in the fifth.

Obviously, a break is not a guaranteed win of a set, but Nadal broke to serve for the match. So that's almost as decisive as a break can be (unless it's a break to actually win the match). I agree with you though, but it's ironic to say, since most are acting like if Novak had held in that game in the fifth, he was guaranteed to win the match.

 

[brokenshoelace]

I love how every non-Rafa fan just conveniently ignores the minor detail of Nadal surrendering a break in the fourth, then after breaking again, failing to serve out the set. Yeah, I'm sure that's not as meaningful as one point early in the fifth.

The match shouldn't have gone to a fifth to begin with. The better player won that day. Of that there can be no doubt. Djokovic outplayed Nadal in the second set, and the the tie-break in the fourth. That's about it.

I also think it's more of a product of who lost, so who has regrets. If rafa had lost, I am sure there would be more conversation about him losing the fourth after being up a break.

This, I completely agree with.

 

[herios]

Looking back to 2013, this was a blockbuster year for mens tennis, with 2 main headlines:
1. The fall of Roger Federer from 2 to 6 ranked player, with only 1 250 event won
2. The return of Rafa Nadal, who captured once again Number 1 ranking.

Will be next year as eventful as this year? Difficult to say. But I think it will. Men's tennis was totally dominated for 2 years 2011-12 by the top 4, that has now ended.
Will there be some new or younger faces in the top 10?
Or new SF or Finalists in slams, like Ferrer this year?
I hope both wil become true.