2014 Aussie Open QF: Federer vs. Murray

[brokenshoelace]

I feel this might be the one match where we all pick Federer and end up being wrong (but that's just a baseless "feeling"). Still, based on form, I'm going with Roger.

One of my main issues with him against Murray, Nadal and DJokovic was that he wasn't consistent enough to rally last year. Every time an 8-10+ stroke rally ensued, you pretty much knew who was going to take it. I do feel he's playing sharper now, but still he'll need to play aggressive and avoid these long exchanges. You just never know when his backhand will start failing him.

The good thing for him against Murray is that even though Murray has a better backhand, Roger doesn't always do badly in these exchanges. He has less risk using his slice because Andy will not run around his backhand and punish with the forehand the way Nadal and Djokovic do (even if he tries, his forehand just isn't as good).

What I'm interested in the most is seeing if Roger attacks the net as much, and more importantly, whether he continues to attack the net if he gets passed a few times. Murray is not Tsonga. He has a much better court positioning, anticipation, movement and passing shots. Fed is unlikely to be as successful against him at the net. But I'd still attack the net if I'm Roger, although I'd mix up my approaches and go to the forehand more. Murray can do anything with his backhand pass, but his forehand will go cross court 90% of the times. If Roger has that scouted, his success at the net will increase.

What makes me lean towards Roger right now is that Murray's forehand has looked somewhat pedestrian to me in this tournament, and I think Roger will be able to exploit that. Meanwhile, Andy hasn't been serving too great so Federer will get his chances on serve.

I'm really looking forward to it and I feel it's the kind of match where no result will really be surprising, but I'll go with Fed in 4.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Schedule is out and as expected they screwed me. Match is at 3.30 a.m. in EST.

 

[Goldenboy]

With Novak out and Rafa having blister issues, this is an opportunity for both Roger and Murray to maybe go on and win the title. This is now a semi, and the match with Rafa (if he beats Dimitrov) is effectively a final.

Just increases the hype and anticipation.

Hope its a good one. Still pick Roger in 4, but Murray will fight till the end.

 

[isabelle]

Murray in 4 I guess

 

[shawnbm]

The good thing for him against Murray is that even though Murray has a better backhand, Roger doesn't always do badly in these exchanges. He has less risk using his slice because Andy will not run around his backhand and punish with the forehand the way Nadal and Djokovic do (even if he tries, his forehand just isn't as good).

What I'm interested in the most is seeing if Roger attacks the net as much, and more importantly, whether he continues to attack the net if he gets passed a few times. Murray is not Tsonga. He has a much better court positioning, anticipation, movement and passing shots. Fed is unlikely to be as successful against him at the net. But I'd still attack the net if I'm Roger, although I'd mix up my approaches and go to the forehand more. Murray can do anything with his backhand pass, but his forehand will go cross court 90% of the times. If Roger has that scouted, his success at the net will increase.

What makes me lean towards Roger right now is that Murray's forehand has looked somewhat pedestrian to me in this tournament, and I think Roger will be able to exploit that. Meanwhile, Andy hasn't been serving too great so Federer will get his chances on serve.

I'm really looking forward to it and I feel it's the kind of match where no result will really be surprising, but I'll go with Fed in 4.

I agree with much of the above. Andy and Rafa, to me, possess the best passing shots. Still, Roger has his chances here. They say his ball is moving through the court with more power and spin, ostensibly due to the new racquet (I missed the Tsonga match, so I don't know). If that is true, then he will be aided by that against Murray. I think it will be on up and down match for both men, as each is searching for his best form and playing his way into the tournament. I see in other posts something about Nadal with blisters. Is it serious?

 

[Front242]

I see in other posts something about Nadal with blisters. Is it serious?

They look more like callaces that anyone who lifts weights without gloves would get but seems the one in the middle maybe was more a fluid filled blister than a callace and burst.

Some photos here.

https://twitter.com/davidjnadal/status/425214026285867008/photo/1

 

[Front242]

Looks like he's getting some "relief" in the third photo on the right :gross:

 

[Correspondent Kiu]

Andy in 4
With no special reason.

 

[sid]

Hoping that by tomorrow lunchtime (GMT) Stan will be the Swiss #1.

 

[sid]

My vote is Andy in 4 hard sets long as his back holds up.

 

[huntingyou]

It will be suicide if Roger attacks the net with consistency; it has to be sporadic and not part of his game plan. If he stays steady from the backcourt and attacks Andy's forehand with the CC exchange....I like his chances. The same for his return, typically Andy serves around 60 or just below so there is no need to go ultra agressive...it's ok to block the first serve since he should get plenty of chances to manuever Andy during his second deliveries.

I would love to see Andy/Rafa though

 

[the AntiPusher]

Andy in four or 5. Murray and lendl will absolutely dare Fed to serve and volley or try to control from the front court. I think that Roger has the ability to still try to but not against an in form Murray, Djoker or Rafa.

 

[Front242]

That's the thing though. Is Murray in form? Is Fed in form? Lots of variables to consider and everything can completely change from match to match.

 

[DarthFed]

Attacking the net is suicide if you are continuously coming in on poor shots and coming in on the opponent's best side. Attacking Murray's forehand on good approach shots is not a bad play at all and should be part of the game plan. Roger did a good job of finding the weak Tsonga backhand off both his forehand and backhand, hopefully he can do the same against Murray's forehand.

Part of the problem is Murray is a much better mover than Tsonga and his forehand isn't anywhere near as bad as the Tsonga backhand. I'm only worried if Roger is consistently coming in on junk vs. the Murray backhand. That is a sure fire way to lose the point.

 

[Front242]

We've seen many Roddick-esque headless chicken random net dashes on atrocious approach shots from Roger last year so I agree that's suicide but as Darth pointed out it's only bad if it's on those bad approaches. That's hopefully something Edberg can reconcile as the net was his bread and butter. For me at least, Roger's most convincing net performance against Djokovic and Murray was at the AO '07 where he played sublime. Naturally though he was younger and so were his opponents. But even at his age now he can still have success at the net with good approaches and in fact he needs to if he wants to end points sooner.

 

[tented]

Attacking the net is suicide if you are continuously coming in on poor shots and coming in on the opponent's best side. Attacking Murray's forehand on good approach shots is not a bad play at all and should be part of the game plan. Roger did a good job of finding the weak Tsonga backhand off both his forehand and backhand, hopefully he can do the same against Murray's forehand.

Part of the problem is Murray is a much better mover than Tsonga and his forehand isn't anywhere near as bad as the Tsonga backhand. I'm only worried if Roger is consistently coming in on junk vs. the Murray backhand. That is a sure fire way to lose the point.

Have you watched enough of Murray this week to assess his movement? I haven't, so I'm wondering what his level is. If he's already back to his old self, then this could be a long night for Roger.

And I agree about approaching the net. If he does his Roddick impression, it's all over.


EDIT: I see Front and I just made the same Roddick comparison.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Obviously if Roger attacks the net a lot he will get passed, but that's the risk-reward factor. As long as he's coming in off of good approaches, he should be fine for the most part. Now if Murray is having an otherworldly day and passes him 90% of the times, then yeah, it would be a good idea to step back. But you gotta make him earn that respect you're giving him by actually testing how well he's going to pass you if you come in behind good approaches. Roger's always attacked the net well against Murray in the matches he's beaten him in.

 

[DarthFed]

Attacking the net is suicide if you are continuously coming in on poor shots and coming in on the opponent's best side. Attacking Murray's forehand on good approach shots is not a bad play at all and should be part of the game plan. Roger did a good job of finding the weak Tsonga backhand off both his forehand and backhand, hopefully he can do the same against Murray's forehand.

Part of the problem is Murray is a much better mover than Tsonga and his forehand isn't anywhere near as bad as the Tsonga backhand. I'm only worried if Roger is consistently coming in on junk vs. the Murray backhand. That is a sure fire way to lose the point.

Have you watched enough of Murray this week to assess his movement? I haven't, so I'm wondering what his level is. If he's already back to his old self, then this could be a long night for Roger.

And I agree about approaching the net. If he does his Roddick impression, it's all over.


EDIT: I see Front and I just made the same Roddick comparison.

I think he is moving well enough but I only saw the last bit of the Robert match. He wasn't hitting the forehand with any kind of authority though, almost like pre 2012 Murray. Hopefully he has left the Roddick net approaches behind him for the most part. His approach shots had much more precision and power against Tsonga then we've seen in a long time.

 

[DarthFed]

We've seen many Roddick-esque headless chicken random net dashes on atrocious approach shots from Roger last year so I agree that's suicide but as Darth pointed out it's only bad if it's on those bad approaches. That's hopefully something Edberg can reconcile as the net was his bread and butter. For me at least, Roger's most convincing net performance against Djokovic and Murray was at the AO '07 where he played sublime. Naturally though he was younger and so were his opponents. But even at his age now he can still have success at the net with good approaches and in fact he needs to if he wants to end points sooner.

The Murray match you're thinking of was 2012 Wimbledon. I'd argue his approach shots that day were good but not great. That day his volleying was otherworldly, he was making very difficult volleys look like cake.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

The bookies are picking Fed by a small margin.