imjimmy said:
Before today's matches, I would have called Nadal in 4 or 5, but I am not so sure anymore.
To me it seems that both players are NOT playing that well. Nadal is definitely not playing the best hard court tennis of his carrer. He is not as sharp as he was in UsOpen 2010. His serve is not comparable and his ROS is also not as good. Today's match was a little disappointing from Nadal's perspective. His forehand didn't have the same penetration. He was overspinning his backhand and standing back for ROS making the server look good. This typically happens when Nadal is not very confident. In short: Rafa definitely looked better in the earlier rounds of the UsOpen. Especially against Robredo. So did Nadal peak too early at the Open?
If you thought Nadal was sub-par, things are not looking so great for Djokovic either. Wawrinka dismantled him for 1.5 sets today and was clearly the better player for the majority of the match. Djokovic has had difficulty being aggressive and changing direction with his DTL backhand. His serve too was also not as good as it usually is. In the end he won the match, because he was stronger physically and played better in the bigger moments. Biggest reason: Wawrinka didn't have the self-belief to seal the deal. In short Djokovic is not the same guy who blew the competition away in 2011.
So what's going to happen? The Montreal Nadal-Djokovic match was a very good indicator. Nadal was very aggressive (Especially with the off-forehand) and he continually changed direction and never backed off on his backhand side. He was pushing Djokovic from side to side and coming to the net at every opportunity. Then he raised his level in the Tie-break and hit HARD to Djokovic's forehand. Even then the match was close. I haven't seen Rafa play with the same authority in the UsOpen, which makes me wonder whether there is any truth in the speculation that Rafa's B team is better than the A team (Toni).
It'll come down to the day to day form. Nadal needs to play at atleast as well as he did in Montreal to have a good shot. Since Djokovic has the matchup advantage and has usually been better than Nadal at this surface, it's hard to argue against him. He tends to perform better against Rafa at non-clay slams while looking sub-par earlier (think UsOpen 2011, Wimb 2011 and AO 2012). For Nadal, it's now or never. He has all the momentum. The iron is hot, and he has to strike. No excuse in being defensive and losing.
All said and done, based on today's performances I have to say Djokovic in 5. But of course I'd be happy to be wrong.
Whoever wins this is the best player of the year IMO, irrespective of the rankings.
Good points imjimmy especially about Rafa's B team instead of A team with Toni. If you look at it, the B team is undefeated on the hardcourts and Rafa seems to had been playing looser.
I don't agree with what your analysis of Rafa's play so far in the USO but I do feel that you are saying what you honestly believe.
Here are my reasons:
Rafa's hardcourt success this year has been an astonishing accomplishment this year. To totally dominate the North American hardcourts master series is against all the top players in the ATP tour cannot be underestimated. ( I know he hasn't beaten Murray but truthfully Andy hasn't been his best during both swings of the North American tour).
Indian Wells
R64 Ryan Harrison (USA) 73 W 7-6(3), 6-2
R32 Leonardo Mayer (ARG) 64 W W/O
R16 Ernests Gulbis (LAT) 67 W 4-6, 6-4, 7-5
Q Roger Federer (SUI) 2 W 6-4, 6-2
S Tomas Berdych (CZE) 6 W 6-4, 7-5
W Juan Martin Del Potro (ARG) 7 W 4-6, 6-3, 6-4
Montreal
R32 Jesse Levine (CAN) 132 W 6-2, 6-0 Stats
R16 Jerzy Janowicz (POL) 18 W 7-6(6), 6-4 Stats
Q Marinko Matosevic (AUS) 74 W 6-2, 6-4 Stats
S Novak Djokovic (SRB) 1 W 6-4, 3-6, 7-6(2) Stats
W Milos Raonic (CAN) 13 W 6-2, 6-2
Cincinnati
R32 Benjamin Becker (GER) 100 W 6-2, 6-2
R16 Grigor Dimitrov (BUL) 29 W 6-2, 5-7, 6-2
Q Roger Federer (SUI) 5 W 5-7, 6-4, 6-3
S Tomas Berdych (CZE) 6 W 7-5, 7-6(4)
W John Isner (USA) 22 W 7-6(8), 7-6(3)
Keep in mind that Rafa was scheduled to meet Isner and Federer at the USO which I still feel that his results would have been similar.
In the past especially after getting dismantle by JMDP at USO 09, it was said that Rafa couldn't handle the big hitters which at that time appeared to be true. Rafa has made a ton of adjustments to his game to counter this.
In the past against excellent hardcourt players such as Federer and Djoker, it was said that Rafa chances was less than certain but Rafa has counter this.
Djoker made some adjustments in his game since their meeting at the USO 2010 which Rafa won in 4 sets. The primary was when a short ball was hit to Djoker's backhand, Nole crushes the ball to Rafa's forehand by pull him off the court and controlling the center of the court.
Rafa has made some adjustments by being more aggressive to Djoker's forehand which is more prone to breakdown and produce more UFEs. ( please reference Montreal 2013).
Rafa has been more aggressive at the net and his slice backhand down the line is landing deeper so far this year. Unlike the past, Rafa is playing the big points in his service games better mostly by going for more placements with his serve and shorten the points. He is playing more aggressively from the beginning of his matches with Djoker and shorten the rallies.
I have stated before, if all things remain true, it will always be Rafa vs Djoker. When they are both healthy, they are the best two players on the planet on every surface regardless of what happen this year at SW19. These two are Twins in talent, movement and defense. It too hard to make a prediction because it should come down to just a few points, who plays the big points better. So far this year it has been Rafa and I cant see why there is a need to change.
This is the best Rafa has ever been on the hardcourts.
The biggest intangible is confidence, Rafa is the more confident player, imo.
