Kieran said:
NADAL2005RG said:
Riotbeard said:
A bit optomistic, as nadal has been playing some of his best tennis of his career. I think it depends more on Novak (not whether he wins, which either can win on any surface at their best), who has had trouble with consistency over five sets this year. If he can get his head back together by the F.O. he has a solid chance, if he can't, it is not going to 5 sets. I think he wins the AO again, against anybody. That's his home. These past two years have not been great, but he at least got the AO, and that surface is borderline perfect for his game.
You sure that Djokovic will beat Nadal at the AO? They went 6 hours in the 2012 AO final, and that was back when Djokovic had won 6 finals in a row over Nadal. The mental edge was greater than ever for Djokovic. Now Nadal has won 6 of their last 7 meetings, including their last 2 hardcourt meetings.
It's reasonable of Riotbeard to expect this. Novak in Oz is exceptional, and he'd be on his home slam turf, so to speak. Also, between now and then, the H2H may switch again, as it so often has in the past...
I think it will be interesting to see how the next few tournaments go, including the YEC, before we make a prediction about the AO, but I think you're right that momentum can change, and probably will, between Nadal and Djokovic, over the next couple of years.
NADAL2005RG said:
Except the trend in h2h is stretching more in Nadal's favor now than ever before, on hardcourts anyway. Nadal has won 2 of their last 3 hardcourt matches. The match Nadal lost, took 6 hours. No sign of momentum switching back to Djokovic at all. Whereas we noticed the h2h switching back to Nadal before the 2012 clay season, because he got so close at the AO.
People thought Djokovic was close to switching the h2h back this year at Roland Garros, only to witness Nadal beat Djokovic twice on hardcourts including a breadstick at the US Open. Nadal has won 22 in a row on hardcourts, peak career hardcourt form. While Djokovic hasn't won a hardcourt title for a long, long, long time. Nadal and Djokovic are going in opposite directions. Does Djokovic have the mental toughness to turn it around, again? We'll see. Nadal is known for almost a decade of mental toughness. Djokovic is known for 8 months of mental toughness. But anything is possible in sport.
It's fair to point that out. Who would have said that Nadal would be 2-0 on HCs v. Djokovic this year? But I don't think Novak is going to stop being a great HC player, or the favorite at the AO next year. That said, if they continue in a similar way in the next few months, I would give Djokovic a greater chance of making the AO final than Rafa, but should they meet there, I would give the edge to Nadal. But the next couple of months will tell us something.