2025 (Bold or not) Predictions

[El Dude]

We haven't done one yet, so might as well start this thread. Try to give at least one bold/fearless prediction - something that seems unlikely to happen, but you think will (or hope) has a sneaky chance of occurring.

A lot depends upon the fate of Jannik Sinner - whether he's suspended and for how long. If he isn't suspended at all, I think he remains the top dog and consolidates his #1 ranking. If he's suspended, he could miss Roland Garros and Wimbledon and even fall out of the top 5, and Alcaraz becomes the top candidate for #1.

As a side note, if that happens it would be kind of sad for Alcaraz, because it would be his second dubious year-end #1 ranking. In 2022, he was really the third best player, but Novak missed two Slams due to Covid policies and Rafa fell apart in the second half. On the other hand, Alcaraz could take another step forward like Rafa in 2008, and earn that #1 ranking through just dominating.

Anyhow, what strikes me about the current top 30 or so, is that there is a huge number of guys who could finish in the top 10. The "second tier" between the elite and the field is deep, with a lot of talent. Part of this is because there are a bunch of youngish guys whose upside is still unclear: Fils, Rune, Draper, Musetti, Shelton, Korda, Perricard, etc, plus the weird case of Felix Auger-Aliassime. Some of those guys could vie for a spot in the top 10, but who do they replace? Old man Grigor? Novak? Will Tsitsipas surge? Is De MInaur's top 10 finish a one-off? (he seems like one of those place-holder guys like a Janko Tipsarevic).

I think Fils and Perricard will continue to rise and break into the top 10 - if not this year, then next. But I see players like Shelton, Musetti and Korda as more 10-20 guys, to go with guys like Khachanov, Tiafoe, and De Minaur. I also suspect Hurkacz will be more of a 10-20 guy going forward.

So one prediction I have is rather general: 2025 will be a "sorting out" year. The field after the elite will sort itself out, and by the end we'll have a better sense of who is who.

One fearless prediction is bounce-backs from Rune and Auger-Aliassime. These guys are too talented to be #13 and #29, respectively. I think Holger rises to at least the middle of the top 10, and Felix back to at least the cusp of the top 10. Rune may not quite make a new Big Three, but he's going to at least vie with Zverev and Medvedev for that #3 spot on tour.

Another prediction is that I think Novak doesn't win a Slam and retires at the end of the year, or maybe AO 2026. He'll play well at the AO, but Jannik is just too strong there, and at this point I think Alcaraz, Medvedev, and maybe Zverev can take him out. If I had to guess, I think Novak goes out in the SF, QF, F, and QF of Slams this year. If Alcaraz and Sinner weren't around, I think he'd still have a Slam or two left in him, but he seems to have lost a step that I don't think he can get back, and Sincaraz are just too good. That said, he's Novak, so if he wins a Slam I won't be too surprised.

Finally, Joao Fonseca is going to turn some heads this year. Ranked #145 and just 18 years old, he's still a couple years from his prime, but I think he rises about 100 ranks and finishes around #40. He'll have some bad tournaments, but will win his first title and go relatively deep (QF or better) in at least one Slam.

What about you? What your predictions, bold or not, and general thoughts about the 2025 season? What do you anticipate?

 

[mrzz]

Zverev (gasp) wins a major.
Djokovic retires.
Unseeded player wins Roland Garros.

 

[El Dude]

Zverev (gasp) wins a major.
Djokovic retires.
Unseeded player wins Roland Garros.

I also have a feeling about Zverev - he's my top choice for new Slam winner, but that's easy. At least until some of the young guys ripen a bit more. Really, the clock is ticking for him as he may be surpassed by guys like Fils, Rune, Perricard, and Fonseca within the next 2-3 years. It is one thing trying to get past 2 better players, quite another to get past 5 or 6.

I'm not ready to call it for 2025, but I see a Wimbledon title or two in Perricard's future. When you're second serve averages 130 mph, you're a factor - he basically goes with two first serves. One of his second serves in Basel this year was 146 mph! He's probably going to be the best server on tour in the foreseeable future, and he's not exactly John Isner with movement. He could be a better version of Milos Raonic.

 

[El Dude]

Players who I'm most curious to see how they do - who could be real disruptors to the established order, if things go well: Rune, Perricard, Draper, Shelton, Fils. All of these guys have the potential to make and impact and a run at the top 10, and upset the top players.

Mensik and Fonseca coming up behind, but probably a year or two away from playing a similar role.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

The Australian Open will end up being a one-off, rather than a full comeback, for Nick Kyrgrios. He retires for good after the Australian Open.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

The Australian Open will end up being a one-off, rather than a full comeback, for Nick Kyrgrios. He retires for good after the Australian Open.

Nick had problems with his wrist in his singles match at Brisbane International against Perricard yesterday, I cant see him playing on after this year, even though he has signed on for a tournament later in 2025. Nick had hinted he would play pickleball with Jack Sock lol!

 

[El Dude]

Here's one: Nick Kyrgios wins Wimbledon. I know, it is a real long-shot, but I was watching highlights from his match against Perricard and his Brisbane doubles with Novak. Not only did he look really good, like he wasn't rusty at all, but he had a different demeanor - less of a tempestuous clown. More serious. A serious, healthy Kyrgios instantly becomes a potential spoiler.

 

[El Dude]

Oh, and watching Kyrgios and Novak play together was pure joy.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Here's one: Nick Kyrgios wins Wimbledon. I know, it is a real long-shot, but I was watching highlights from his match against Perricard and his Brisbane doubles with Novak. Not only did he look really good, like he wasn't rusty at all, but he had a different demeanor - less of a tempestuous clown. More serious. A serious, healthy Kyrgios instantly becomes a potential spoiler.

Nick had the potential to be a Top Ten player, grass is his favorite surface, I still dont think he has 'the mentality' to win a Grand Slam, his wrist is still a concern for me.,that was evident in his match against Perricard., when he took a MTO after the 1st set. Nick also said it will be a 'miracle' if her gets through the AO with his wrist pain

 

[El Dude]

Nick had the potential to be a Top Ten player, grass is his favorite surface, I still dont think he has 'the mentality' to win a Grand Slam, his wrist is still a concern for me.,that was evident in his match against Perricard., when he took a MTO after the 1st set. Nick also said it will be a 'miracle' if her gets through the AO with his wrist pain

That's a bummer. Wrist and joint injuries have a tendency to not really heal, or get re-injured when used.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

That's a bummer. Wrist and joint injuries have a tendency to not really heal, or get re-injured when used.

Sad to say once a player has had wrist surgery, for example, it dosent heal 100%, Nick injured his wrist at age 23, refused to have surgery and played on, until he had no other option.

 

[mrzz]

Kyrgios is a very smart player. His biggest talent is his serve, but in second place is his ability to disrupt a match and get in the opponents' head. Very close third is his talent to find excuses.

 

[Kieran]

We haven't done one yet, so might as well start this thread. Try to give at least one bold/fearless prediction - something that seems unlikely to happen, but you think will (or hope) has a sneaky chance of occurring.

A lot depends upon the fate of Jannik Sinner - whether he's suspended and for how long. If he isn't suspended at all, I think he remains the top dog and consolidates his #1 ranking. If he's suspended, he could miss Roland Garros and Wimbledon and even fall out of the top 5, and Alcaraz becomes the top candidate for #1.

As a side note, if that happens it would be kind of sad for Alcaraz, because it would be his second dubious year-end #1 ranking. In 2022, he was really the third best player, but Novak missed two Slams due to Covid policies and Rafa fell apart in the second half.

Wait! If Sinner is does time for the crime and Alcaraz ends the season #1, how is that dubious? Alcaraz is the better player. It’s dubious if a player fails a drug test and competes, even though I don’t think Sinner tried to cheat.

And Rafa didn’t “fall apart” in the second half of 2022, he was injured. I see what you done there.


As for predictions, I hope Carlos wins Australia. A career slam at 21 would mark him clearly as the exceptional player of the post-3 era, one who is comparable to them. I also think he’ll win Wimbledon, and contend in Paris and New York. This kid has no roof, so it might be a special year for him, with multiple slams.

The worry is that he’ll schedule things poorly and not be at his best. Last season, playing the Olympics, the Laver Cup, Davis Cup, didn’t help his season end. DC alone was enough to play.

I think Sinner will feel a reaction to last season, though he’ll still be top 2.

I think this season will see the end of Djokovic. The more recent useless generation will still have its captain Medvedev as a competitive force, Zverev less so, and the rest of them will be forgotten. Tsitsipas will open a hair salon and forget he opened it, and then close it within a month.

Players like Draper will excel, basically because he’s an honest scrapper. Excel at his level meaning he’ll reach a slam semi, maybe even a final, but no gold.

Hopefully we get a season without drug controversies. Last season was messy and you get the feeling that something worse might come out this year. Hopefully not though..

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Djokovic struggles through the first half of the season, then wins Wimbledon like in 2018.

 

[El Dude]

Three months later, here's how I would adjust my initial post:

At this point, I don't see Alcaraz taking over #1. He might for a bit, but even if Sinner comes back rusty in late clay season, he's going to be the player to beat in the second half. I do think Alcaraz will right the ship, but doubts are beginning to creep in about whether he is going to jump that octave that I was expecting. But it is obviously early.

I'm more bearish on Perricard. For a moment there I was imagining: What if John Isner could move? Now it just looks like John Isner. Perricard will be a force, but I don't think the two first serve thing will pan out in the long run, and his movement will never be good enough to be more than a cuspy top 10 guy and dangerous floater type. Fils had a disappointing start, but has been playing well at the Sunshine Double and I think is as good a candidate as any for first-time Masters winner this year. I still think his upside is something less than greatness, but he could be a fixture in the top 10 for years to come.

Zverev and Medvedev are flailing, especially Daniil. I was expecting some bounce-back, but now I'm wondering if 2024 was the beginning of the end rather than a down year. He doesn't seem to have the drive. Maybe he hangs out in the 10-20 range for a few years to earn a pay-check, but I think he's done as an elite player and will likely never see the top 5 again. That said, Sascha's been playing well in Miami and I think he's more driven to succeed and will be a top 10 guy for a few more years yet. Still a Slam darkhorse, but I imagine if he doesn't win one this year, he'll be too disheartened to ever win one. RG is his best shot, with USO also a possibility.

Rune and Auger-Aliassime...so far, so good with my predictions. I still think Rune is a bonafide top 10 guy who can even spend time in the top 5, and Auger-Aliassime--even if disappointing from early expections--is, at least, a top 20 talent who will spend more time in the top 10. There have been positive signs from both.

As for Novak...as of this writing, before his Miami QF vs Korda, he's my favorite to win Roland Garros. I know, I know. But he's playing great and I think is going to be really dangerous for at least the Slam Channel.

Anyhow, I still see this as a "sorting out" year. By year's end, we should know a lot more about how the "post-Big Three Era" will look.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Three months later, here's how I would adjust my initial post:

At this point, I don't see Alcaraz taking over #1. He might for a bit, but even if Sinner comes back rusty in late clay season, he's going to be the player to beat in the second half. I do think Alcaraz will right the ship, but doubts are beginning to creep in about whether he is going to jump that octave that I was expecting. But it is obviously early.

I'm more bearish on Perricard. For a moment there I was imagining: What if John Isner could move? Now it just looks like John Isner. Perricard will be a force, but I don't think the two first serve thing will pan out in the long run, and his movement will never be good enough to be more than a cuspy top 10 guy and dangerous floater type. Fils had a disappointing start, but has been playing well at the Sunshine Double and I think is as good a candidate as any for first-time Masters winner this year. I still think his upside is something less than greatness, but he could be a fixture in the top 10 for years to come.

Zverev and Medvedev are flailing, especially Daniil. I was expecting some bounce-back, but now I'm wondering if 2024 was the beginning of the end rather than a down year. He doesn't seem to have the drive. Maybe he hangs out in the 10-20 range for a few years to earn a pay-check, but I think he's done as an elite player and will likely never see the top 5 again. That said, Sascha's been playing well in Miami and I think he's more driven to succeed and will be a top 10 guy for a few more years yet. Still a Slam darkhorse, but I imagine if he doesn't win one this year, he'll be too disheartened to ever win one. RG is his best shot, with USO also a possibility.

Rune and Auger-Aliassime...so far, so good with my predictions. I still think Rune is a bonafide top 10 guy who can even spend time in the top 5, and Auger-Aliassime--even if disappointing from early expections--is, at least, a top 20 talent who will spend more time in the top 10. There have been positive signs from both.

As for Novak...as of this writing, before his Miami QF vs Korda, he's my favorite to win Roland Garros. I know, I know. But he's playing great and I think is going to be really dangerous for at least the Slam Channel.

Anyhow, I still see this as a "sorting out" year. By year's end, we should know a lot more about how the "post-Big Three Era" will look.

Alcaraz had a chance to get back to No 2 ranking at Miami, though he stuffed it, he does have big points to defend in the clay/grass season coming up
Personally speaking I think it is a bit early to pick Novak for the RG title, he is on the entry list to play Monte Carlo and has confirmed to play Madrid, I would imagine he would want to play Rome before RG, is this playing too much? I guess we will have to wait and see
Sinner is also down to play Hamburg ATP500 after Rome I guess on his results in Rome, before RG

 

[El Dude]

Alcaraz had a chance to get back to No 2 ranking at Miami, though he stuffed it, he does have big points to defend in the clay/grass season coming up
Personally speaking I think it is a bit early to pick Novak for the RG title, he is on the entry list to play Monte Carlo and has confirmed to play Madrid, I would imagine he would want to play Rome before RG, is this playing too much? I guess we will have to wait and see
Sinner is also down to play Hamburg ATP500 after Rome I guess on his results in Rome, before RG

I also think it is too early...but there's no clear favorite. If Carlos gets his head out of his az, he'll be the favorite. Or if Jannik is rust-free by RG he's up there. But right now, Novak is playing better than anyone else, imo. But we're two months from RG, so a lot can change.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

I also think it is too early...but there's no clear favorite. If Carlos gets his head out of his az, he'll be the favorite. Or if Jannik is rust-free by RG he's up there. But right now, Novak is playing better than anyone else, imo. But we're two months from RG, so a lot can change.

There is a lot of clay court tennis to be played before RG, agree at present there is no clear favorite

 

[El Dude]

Well, my hope is Sascha final brings home a Slam trophy and RG is his probably his best chance. I know he's a bit of a whiny prick (and won't win any Boyfriend of the Year awards), but I do feel for the guy. It is really a deep mental hole he's in, and as much as a player shouldn't talk the way he did after losing to Jannik about him simply not being good enough to beat the #1, he wasn't wrong and was actually refreshingly honest (if in a Poor Me sort of way). For him to win a Slam at this point, he needs a perfect convergence:

- Jannik and Carlos get upset and/or hurt and/or inexplicably play poorly, AND
- Novak to lose access to the fountain of youth, AND
- Keep focused and un-stressed in a Slam final.

Even playing his absolute best, he can't beat those three if they're playing reasonably close to their peak level, and when was the last time any of them hadn't done that in a Slam final? Neither Jannik nor Carlos has (yet) lost a Slam final, and Novak hasn't lost a Slam final to anyone but those two since Daniil in 2021. But Sascha can, on a good day, beat anyone else...if he doesn't lose his head, which he almost always does.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I also think it is too early...but there's no clear favorite. If Carlos gets his head out of his az, he'll be the favorite. Or if Jannik is rust-free by RG he's up there. But right now, Novak is playing better than anyone else, imo. But we're two months from RG, so a lot can change.

Didn't Novak just lose 3 matches in a row before Miami?