Top 5 in 2025

[El Dude]

Fast forward half a decade and the 2025 season is wrapping up. Who do you think will be the top five ATP players on tour?

Consider that at the end of 2025, Cilic and del Potro 37, Rafa will be 39, Novak 38, Wawrinka 40, and Roger 44 (!). Raonic will be 35, Dimitrov 34, and Thiem a ripening 32. Next Genners be approaching 30: Kyrgios 30; Berretini, Coric, Medvedev and Khachanov 29; Rublev and Zverev 28; Tsitsipas and Ruud 27. Whatever the generation after them is called, Shapovalov, de Minaur, Moutet, Kecmanovic and Fokina will be 26; Auger-Aliassime, Korda and Wild 25; Sinner 24; Musetti 23; and Alcaraz Garcia 22. And of course, who knows if someone else emerges.

I would say the four most likely choices would be Tsitsipas, Zverev, Auger Aliassime, and Sinner. After them, I'd say the main candidates would be Thiem, Medvedev, Rublev, and Shapovalov. I suppose honorable mentions to Musetti and Alcaraz Garcia because of their age, but I'd like to see how they develop before buying on them. I guess there's a chance Novak and Rafa are still around, but I don't think they'll be top 5.

What about you?

 

[Fiero425]

Fast forward half a decade and the 2025 season is wrapping up. Who do you think will be the top five ATP players on tour?

Consider that at the end of 2025, Cilic and del Potro 37, Rafa will be 39, Novak 38, Wawrinka 40, and Roger 44 (!). Raonic will be 35, Dimitrov 34, and Thiem a ripening 32. Next Genners be approaching 30: Kyrgios 30; Berretini, Coric, Medvedev and Khachanov 29; Rublev and Zverev 28; Tsitsipas and Ruud 27. Whatever the generation after them is called, Shapovalov, de Minaur, Moutet, Kecmanovic and Fokina will be 26; Auger-Aliassime, Korda and Wild 25; Sinner 24; Musetti 23; and Alcaraz Garcia 22. And of course, who knows if someone else emerges.

I would say the four most likely choices would be Tsitsipas, Zverev, Auger Aliassime, and Sinner. After them, I'd say the main candidates would be Thiem, Medvedev, Rublev, and Shapovalov. I suppose honorable mentions to Musetti and Alcaraz Garcia because of their age, but I'd like to see how they develop before buying on them. I guess there's a chance Novak and Rafa are still around, but I don't think they'll be top 5.

What about you?

We'll see! I'm gonna save this mess on my blog and try to remember to come back to it; if I can hang on that long! We've been trying to kick the "Big 3" off the tour for years, but I have a feeling they'll still be haunting the tour 4-5 years from now! The most likely candidate to be close to or in the top 5 would be Novak somehow! He's probably been the most resilient top player ever; with few real breaks in his career! Like the other 2, Fedal have had some absences, but it didn't stop them from winning majors and sustaining their highest ranks well into their 30's! This really is unprecedented! Usually there's a short shelf life for a top player and if they have a serious injury or break off the tour, they're usually done! Look at Haas who kept coming back, but with all his talent, he was never the same! It's a real shame the "Big 3" may have stifled one or more of these NG players' development just by "being there!" It's one thing to stay on the tour well past 30, but few have ever been as successful as Fedalovic, who are still cranking out records every time they go onto the court!

 

[El Dude]

We'll see! I'm gonna save this mess on my blog and try to remember to come back to it; if I can hang on that long! We've been trying to kick the "Big 3" off the tour for years, but I have a feeling they'll still be haunting the tour 4-5 years from now! The most likely candidate to be close to or in the top 5 would be Novak somehow! He's probably been the most resilient top player ever; with few real breaks in his career! Like the other 2, Fedal have had some absences, but it didn't stop them from winning majors and sustaining their highest ranks well into their 30's! This really is unprecedented! Usually there's a short shelf life for a top player and if they have a serious injury or break off the tour, they're usually done! Look at Haas who kept coming back, but with all his talent, he was never the same! It's a real shame the "Big 3" may have stifled one or more of these NG players' development just by "being there!" It's one thing to stay on the tour well past 30, but few have ever been as successful as Fedalovic, who are still cranking out records every time they go onto the court!

I could see Novak and Rafa still being around, but I think the inevitable loss of speed and perhaps increasing injuries will push them out of the top 5, sometime within the next five years. I highly doubt Roger will still be playing in 2025.

 

[Kieran]

I like the Dude’s thinking here regarding the Big 3, and I co-sign the 5 nominees, difficult to say now who’ll be the best of them. One caveat is that, for whatever reason, young players don’t hit the peaks of yore these days, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Thiem at the top then, but again, that’s difficult to predict...

 

[tented]

In no particular order: Tsitsipas, Thiem, Rublev, Shapovalov, and Djokovic.

 

[Bonaca]

Daniil, Sissyfuzz, Austrian midget, Jannik and Zverev.
Andrej, Denis and Felix close.
Borna? More hope than belief.

Novak and Nadal no factor in 5 years.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Jelenafan]

God, I fervently hope Rafa and Novak aren't contenders a full five years from now. Let them salvage their knees/body and enjoy their tennis accomplishments by the age of 39 and 40. I expect Rafa committed by then to his family/foundation and his academy and likewise Novak to be fully vested in the Serbian tennis federation and to be their Davis Coach captain by then.

Federer I expect to still be playing the random tournament here and there chasing Jimmy Connor's all time title singles record.

5 years from now...

Theim, Tsitsipas, Zverev, Rublev, Sinner and I chose an unknown, presently off the radar 21/22 year old phenom who bursts out of the scene. I would love Musetti to continue to develop because that 1H Bh.

 

[Moxie]

God, I fervently hope Rafa and Novak aren't contenders a full five years from now. Let them salvage their knees/body and enjoy their tennis accomplishments by the age of 39 and 40. I expect Rafa committed by then to his family/foundation and his academy and likewise Novak to be fully vested in the Serbian tennis federation and to be their Davis Coach captain by then.

Federer I expect to still be playing the random tournament here and there chasing Jimmy Connor's all time title singles record.

5 years from now...

Theim, Tsitsipas, Zverev, Rublev, Sinner and I chose an unknown, presently off the radar 21/22 year old phenom who bursts out of the scene. I would love Musetti to continue to develop because that 1H Bh.

I like your idea of reserving a slot for the "player to be named later." 5 years is a long time. (Though barely more than 4 to the start of 2025.) Of the Big 3, Djokovic is the only one I see even possibly still playing, and only if he believes he can still win Majors. Thiem, at 32, and with all or most of the Big 3 gone? I see him in there as a consistent guy-to-beat. I like Sinner a lot for the long-haul, given game and his head. I'd like to see Tsitsipas up there. And I'm warming to Rublev...he also seems pretty sturdy. Zverev is ambitious but inconsistent. Medvedev inconsistent but dangerous if he finds his confidence. I'd like to add Kyrgios, if we were talking about 2-3 years from now, but he may well have had enough in 5 years. Shapo is really working on his maturity, so I think he'll be in there, as will FAA.

I know I've mentioned more than 5, but across a whole year, probably even 10 players will be within the top 5.

I'll go with: Thiem, Sinner, Tsitsipas, Rublev, Medvedev, Zverev, Shapo, FAA and Berrettini (why not? Shout out to @kskate2!) to be in the top 5 at some point in 2025.

 

[Kieran]

God, I fervently hope Rafa and Novak aren't contenders a full five years from now. Let them salvage their knees/body and enjoy their tennis accomplishments by the age of 39 and 40. I expect Rafa committed by then to his family/foundation and his academy and likewise Novak to be fully vested in the Serbian tennis federation and to be their Davis Coach captain by then.

Federer I expect to still be playing the random tournament here and there chasing Jimmy Connor's all time title singles record.

5 years from now...

Theim, Tsitsipas, Zverev, Rublev, Sinner and I chose an unknown, presently off the radar 21/22 year old phenom who bursts out of the scene. I would love Musetti to continue to develop because that 1H Bh.

Yeah, I'm kinda over the Big 3 now, to a large degree, and impatient for the youngsters to show their mettle. It almost devalues the achievements of the Big 3 that in their dotage they're still pushing the witless kids around. I don't think it's got to do with physicality, it's mental.

A lot of Roger's titles are 250's, so if he focuses there, he can catch Connors, but I think he won't do either (focus there, or catch Connors)...

 

[Fiero425]

Yeah, I'm kinda over the Big 3 now, to a large degree, and impatient for the youngsters to show their mettle. It almost devalues the achievements of the Big 3 that in their dotage they're still pushing the witless kids around. I don't think it's got to do with physicality, it's mental.

A lot of Roger's titles are 250's, so if he focuses there, he can catch Connors, but I think he won't do either (focus there, or catch Connors)...

I've been saying it for years! I was so apathetic towards Fedal 10 years ago, I wasn't even paying attention to men's tennis! It went on for years with both owning the tour with no real break until Novak showed up! That got me back interested in watching the game on TV again! There has to be some doubt to make it worthwhile unless you just want to see your fave win everything in sight! With Novak there is always some doubt believe it or not! He's been the most vulnerable of the Big 3; dropping majors and a couple YEC thru upsets when he was expected to add to his resume and record!

 

[Mile]

I think Djoker and Nadal will be among top 5. At least Djoker for sure.

 

[MarvinClark]

Definitely Novak and Nadal are going to be in top 5 pro players. No one can beat these players.

 

[Moxie]

Definitely Novak and Nadal are going to be in top 5 pro players. No one can beat these players.

Welcome to the forums, Marvin! Do you really think that Novak and Rafa will be in the top 5 in 4-5 years?

 

[Front242]

Definitely Novak and Nadal are going to be in top 5 pro players. No one can beat these players.

Welcome. Did you watch the WTF/ATP finals? Medvedev and Thiem say hi.

 

[MarvinClark]

Welcome to the forums, Marvin! Do you really think that Novak and Rafa will be in the top 5 players in 4-5 years?

Yes I still say so. Wait and watch

 

[Front242]

Yes I still say so. Wait and watch

Personally I don't see either still playing but we'll see. Their motivation will drop once Federer retires so can't see either hanging on 5 more years personally.

 

[Moxie]

Personally I don't see either still playing but we'll see. Their motivation will drop once Federer retires so can't see either hanging on 5 more years personally.

I'm with you that they'll likely have retired by then, much less be top 5, but I don't think Federer retiring will cause them to be lacking in motivation, while they still have each other and the records on offer.

 

[Front242]

I'm with you that they'll likely have retired by then, much less be top 5, but I don't think Federer retiring will cause them to be lacking in motivation, while they still have each other and the records on offer.

Well, they'll obviously be competing against each other. To put it another way, I expect both to quit within months of each other unless one happens to be on par on slams or slightly behind and chooses to continue to try and eclipse the other.

 

[El Dude]

None of them will retire until it is clear they can't win another Slam. If Roger doesn't win one this year, I would guess 2022 will be his last year - and probably much diminished. Rafa has at least two more years. Novak will stick around and try to pass them both in the Slam count, so could still be around in five years, but likely won't be in the top 5.

As for the original post, I'd slot Medvedev into the likely top 5 over Zverev. I see AZ as akin to a modern day Berdych - flashes of elite stuff, but doesn't have the mentality to consistently dominate.

 

[Front242]

None of them will retire until it is clear they can't win another Slam. If Roger doesn't win one this year, I would guess 2022 will be his last year - and probably much diminished. Rafa has at least two more years. Novak will stick around and try to pass them both in the Slam count, so could still be around in five years, but likely won't be in the top 5.

As for the original post, I'd slot Medvedev into the likely top 5 over Zverev. I see AZ as akin to a modern day Berdych - flashes of elite stuff, but doesn't have the mentality to consistently dominate.

100% agreed so far on Zverev. A case of "You 'aven't got the technology, mate!" (in a Cockney accent)