Early Roland Garros thread

[mrzz]

Too soon to draw absolute conclusions, but almost too late for an early thread. So let's speculate....

I sense that this edition of the French Open would be a memorable one. Obviously Nadal is still the main favorite, but I am pretty sure that a lot of practice courts became busy as soon as his match against Fognini ended. Quite open tournament with at least two realistic threats to Nadal's reign. Also, a few floaters and low seeds that could disrupt the tournament. My take on the main suspects:

Nadal: Duh! Not in his best shape yet but obviously will arrive at RG fuming.

Djokovic: Duh (but for other reasons)! Also not in his best shape, but, as Nadal, will get there ready to fight. On current clay form he is bellow Nadal IMO, making his task of beating him at RG specially difficult. But if I recall correctly he did reasonably well in the last few majors...

Thiem: The guy playing the best clay tennis, by far. Has been on a final and on two semis before. One factor to consider is that he might arrive at a semi against one of the two above having spent much less time on court (he is obliterating the opposition). Not a given if he maintains his form though.

For me, all others have just an outside shot. Here are the ones I think have a puncher's chance.

Federer: It is illogical not to mention the guy who has won more majors in history, that can play good clay court tennis, and is playing at quite good level this year. I think his current style/game plan might actually work well on clay, and he knows how to win majors. Also, he has nothing to lose. If he somehow gets to quarters or semis, it would stupid to dismiss him. But still a long shot. (as a Federer fan, if I could chose one last major to win, it would be this one).

Wawrinka: He is exactly were he likes to be when he strikes: Nowhere. I actually have seen him play this year, and while there are visible holes, at times I thought he was just a fine tune away from monster mode. Being a low seed (he is #33 at the moment, most likely will be seeded, also counting on withdrawals), he could upset some big name early, and after that he could become unstoppable. The most likely of all unlikely scenarios.

Zverev: The guy has two MS' on clay, so, ok, he makes the cut for this list. But I think he is most likely to lose on R128 than to win it all. However, if by some miracle he starts progressing and upsets happen, he might suddenly become a favorite or co-favorite. His recent poor results may actually help and spur him a bit.

Fognini: The guy just won MC and have beaten Nadal, so deserves the mention. He already did well on RG before, and his unpredictable nature helps him a lot in clay Bof5. I actually think he is more "stable" now, and will end up achieving more on average of what he historically achieved so far. On the other hand, not even on his best day I think he has the game to take down the three real contenders playing their A game.


Orange horse (it is clay, after all): Pella.


Dangerous low seeds:

Besides already mentioned Pella and Wawrinka, we have Lajovic and FAA.

Dangerous floaters:

Fucsovics
Berretini
Kohlschreiber
Garin
Struff
Dimitrov
Sousa
Munar
Cuevas
Sonego
Jarry
Londero

I can easily see each of those beating any top seed apart from Nadal, Djokovic and Thiem. And they would be a terrible R1 even for them.

Honorable mention (pending on a WC):

David Ferrer. Is still playing decent tennis and could be a very dangerous floater. I can see him stringing some wins and making a final splash -- and I don't even like the guy.

 

[El Dude]

Nice summary. I'd add Cecchinato and Coric as dangerous floaters. Nishikori and Schwartzman too, but can they be considered floaters, both being solid clay vets? At the least their names should be mentioned, maybe as "orange seeds."

 

[mrzz]

^^By floater I meant "unseeded" (maybe I am using it wrong?)., so a possible R1 for everyone. The players you mentioned are all seeded above 16, with the exception of Schwartzman. He is one I could definitely add as a dangerous low seed (currently at #24) but maybe because I have seen him in better form I didn't. I think right now he is a tad bellow the names I mentioned in the "dangerous level" department -- but that can quickly change.

Edit: Just to clarify, I mentioned the "floaters" as they can simply land anywhere in the draw, and the low seeds as they can get anyone in R32. Higher seeds (16 and above) will get the top 2 (or top 4) in theory in the latter, "expected" stages. On average naturally I expect them to fare better than my floaters, on the other hand, given their draw positions their chances to create an upset are smaller, as they will face lower ranked players until they meet the big dogs when everyone is already "hot".

 

[herios]

You did not use the wrong word. By definition, "floater" means someone who could float anywhere, or in this context in anyone's draw.
Therefore a seeded player, no matter how low, like 32, is not a floater.

 

[herios]

Thiem as it stands right now, could meet Rafa or Nole in QF, not just SF.
He is ranked 5, but could get into the top 4 past Roger or Sasha, but we will wait to see the outcome in Madrid and Rome for that.

 

[tented]

Thiem as it stands right now, could meet Rafa or Nole in QF, not just SF.
He is ranked 5, but could get into the top 4 past Roger or Sasha, but we will wait to see the outcome in Madrid and Rome for that.

I can see Thiem getting into the top 4 because Sasha drops out, but Roger has literally nothing to lose since he can only gain points at clay tournaments.

 

[herios]

David Ferrer. Is still playing decent tennis and could be a very dangerous floater. I can see him stringing some wins and making a final splash -- and I don't even like the guy.

David announced his retirement and his last event will be in Madrid.

 

[mrzz]

David announced his retirement and his last event will be in Madrid.

Yes, but he changed plans once -- as he was supposed to retire in Barcelona and got a WC for Madrid. So I figured he could receive another for RG and retire there. Pure speculation (but that's why I added the "pending on WC" remark before. But the clarification should be there from the start) .

 

[Moxie]

Yes, but he changed plans once -- as he was supposed to retire in Barcelona and got a WC for Madrid. So I figured he could receive another for RG and retire there. Pure speculation (but that's why I added the "pending on WC" remark before. But the clarification should be there from the start) .

There has been a lot of speculation that Ferrer will take a WC at RG, so you're not alone in that.

 

[El Dude]

BTW, with Trump in office, "orange seed" has a rather unsavory quality to it.

 

[Moxie]

BTW, with Trump in office, "orange seed" has a rather unsavory quality to it.

At least he didn't say "Cheetoh-seed."

 

[mrzz]

BTW, with Trump in office, "orange seed" has a rather unsavory quality to it.

Actually I wrote "orange horse" -- and that is surely fitting...

 

[Moxie]

Thiem as it stands right now, could meet Rafa or Nole in QF, not just SF.
He is ranked 5, but could get into the top 4 past Roger or Sasha, but we will wait to see the outcome in Madrid and Rome for that.

This could be a key point. Mrzz's summary is so good that I have not much else to add. Two points about Thiem: everyone will wonder if he's over-played before RG, and where he lands in the draw.

 

[El Dude]

Roland Garros could be like the last Game of Thrones episode.

 

[El Dude]

Rather than start a new thread, here's a chart I made of Rafa's clay season, from 2005 (the beginning of his prime) to today. Consider this an homage and bow of respect the King of Clay.

I think it is self-explanatory, but I used the color scheme from Wikipedia: green is a title, purple is runner-up, orange is SF, pale yellow QF, and light blue is 4R or before. I also included the opponent he faced; for his losses, the players in bold went on to win the tournament.

I know there are other clay season tournaments--not to mention the "mini-tour" in February mostly in South America, and then another few in July--but those are the "Big Clay Five" and the ones that Rafa has consistently played in.

I'd say he's been a fairly decent clay court player.

I'm also struck by how few of these he's missed - none since 2010, and only three overall. I also didn't realize until doing this that he's never won all five in a season. He's won 4 of 5 nine different times, but never all five. I thought he did it at least once but nope. What a slouch .

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Rather than start a new thread, here's a chart I made of Rafa's clay season, from 2005 (the beginning of his prime) to today. Consider this an homage and bow of respect the King of Clay.

.

1 Forgetting about winning all five. Barcelona is only a 500. Winning all three clay Masters and the RG in the same year is called
winning 'clay slam" and Rafa achieved it in 2010 (that was the only year in which he did it. Also, he kind of did it accidentlly.
Due to a different calendar that year, Rafa was forced to skip Barcelona which made him fresh for all the tourneys with
no two tourneys in consecutive weeks). AFAIK no one else has done it.

2. Let us come to the interesting point of predicting his RG based on his clay swing result. There have been four seasons in which
Rafa lost two or more warm-up tourneys. In two of them, he actually ended up winning RG. So, it is at worst 50/50 for Rafa
at RG even now.

3. Actully, it remains 50/50 even if you confine to seasons in which Rafa lost three or more warm-up tourneys.

4. The only way to reach 100% chance of Rafa failing is if he loses all four warm-up tourneys.

 

[Moxie]

^ Wait, I thought you were a math guy, GSMATH. How do you get to Rafa having a 100% chance of failing to win RG if he loses at all 4 warm-ups? Let's be honest...I'm not sure how you're only putting him at 50/50 now. I know you're rubbing your scaly little claws together after MC and Barcelona, but try to keep some perspective. For example, Stan won no clay tournaments before winning RG in 2015.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

^ Wait, I thought you were a math guy, GSMATH. How do you get to Rafa having a 100% chance of failing to win RG if he loses at all 4 warm-ups? .

In 2015, he lost all four warm ups and then lost RG. That being the only year in which he lost all four, we can say that his chances of losing in RG is 100% if he loses all four warm ups (I know sample size is very small, but makes basic sense).

 

[GameSetAndMath]

^ Wait, I thought you were a math guy, GSMATH. How do you get to Rafa having a 100% chance of failing to win RG if he loses at all 4 warm-ups? Let's be honest...I'm not sure how you're only putting him at 50/50 now. I know you're rubbing your scaly little claws together after MC and Barcelona, but try to keep some perspective. For example, Stan won no clay tournaments before winning RG in 2015.

I am restricting to only Rafa's history. Not looking at other players' history such as that of Stan etc.

 

[Moxie]

In 2015, he lost all four warm ups and then lost RG. That being the only year in which he lost all four, we can say that his chances of losing in RG is 100% if he loses all four warm ups (I know sample size is very small, but makes basic sense).

In the "sense" of wishful thinking. I know you didn't include other players' histories, such as Stan's, but a better way of looking at stats is by a player's history, tournament to tournament, and you know that. You're never going to get anyone to agree with you that Rafa would enter RG with 0% chance of winning it this year, regardless if he goes into it with no titles on clay. Fair enough? Or is anyone else here willing to give him 0% chance at RG, if he doesn't win Madrid/Rome?