WTF ?

[Murat Baslamisli]

1 Nadal, Rafael (ESP) 9,010 0
2 Djokovic, Novak (SRB) 6,770 0
3 Murray, Andy (GBR) 5,430 0
4 Ferrer, David (ESP) 4,540 0
5 Del Potro, Juan Martin (ARG) 3,320 0
6 Berdych, Tomas (CZE) 3,225 0
7 Federer, Roger (SUI) 2,875 0
8 Tsonga, Jo-Wilfried (FRA) 2,455 0
9 Wawrinka, Stanislas (SUI) 2,205 0
10 Gasquet, Richard (FRA) 2,045 0
11 Haas, Tommy (GER) 1,995 0
12 Isner, John (USA) 1,925 7
12 Raonic, Milos (CAN) 1,9257

This is how it looks today. Does anyone see Roger NOT making it? Are positions 5 to 8 up for grabs? Can anyone after 12 sneak in? :huh:

 

[britbox]

1 Nadal, Rafael (ESP) 9,010 0
2 Djokovic, Novak (SRB) 6,770 0
3 Murray, Andy (GBR) 5,430 0
4 Ferrer, David (ESP) 4,540 0
5 Del Potro, Juan Martin (ARG) 3,320 0
6 Berdych, Tomas (CZE) 3,225 0
7 Federer, Roger (SUI) 2,875 0
8 Tsonga, Jo-Wilfried (FRA) 2,455 0
9 Wawrinka, Stanislas (SUI) 2,205 0
10 Gasquet, Richard (FRA) 2,045 0
11 Haas, Tommy (GER) 1,995 0
12 Isner, John (USA) 1,925 7
12 Raonic, Milos (CAN) 1,9257

This is how it looks today. Does anyone see Roger NOT making it? Are positions 5 to 8 up for grabs? Can anyone after 12 sneak in? :huh:

Roger will make it. Tsonga isn't healthy, so that's a buffer.

 

[DarthFed]

Roger is no guarantee to make it but if he calls it a season after USO I wouldn't be upset at all. He need only look at Rafa to see that some time off to mentally and physically refresh can make a world of difference

 

[El Dude]

I thought you meant the other, more common, usage of "WTF."

Roger would have to completely suck to not make it, and I think his match against Rafa was the tonic he needed to at least return to playing like a #5-8ish player. Tsonga missing the US Open really helps him and I don't think any of the others will play that much better than Roger, but you never know. Isner or Raonic could win Paris and sneak in. It will be interesting to see if both big men can continue their strong play.

I really don't want to see Gasquet at the WTF - he'd be another Tipsarevic. Probably Wawrinka too. My hope is that Tommy Haas sneaks in past Tsonga.

I think if Roger makes it to the QF at the US Open and keeps last year's points he's fine, but anything below that and he's in trouble. He'll probably also want to play Basel, Shanghai and Paris - is he schedule for all three? I'm thinking that Rafa will be playing at least Shanghai and Paris so as to push for that #1 ranking, so that makes it harder for Roger.

 

[El Dude]

Roger is no guarantee to make it but if he calls it a season after USO I wouldn't be upset at all. He need only look at Rafa to see that some time off to mentally and physically refresh can make a world of difference

That's a good point - if Roger bombs at the US Open, I wouldn't be suprised to see him take the rest of the year off until Doha to warm up for the Australian Open. I mean, if he goes out early in the US Open then I think his career would be better served by taking four months off than painfully struggling through more tournaments.

On the other hand, I could see him give it another shot at Basel and Paris and try to rev up for the WTF. Who knows.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

roger is almost guaranteed to qualify..

its so clear..all the dead hard sums work out in his favour.

that's the reality.

 

[El Dude]

roger is almost guaranteed to qualify..

its so clear..all the dead hard sums work out in his favour.

that's the reality.

It all depends upon which Roger shows up - the one who played Nadal or the one who played the half dozen or so previous matches. If its the one who played Nadal then I think he's right there with Ferrer, Berdych, and Del Potro; if not, well, he's not even a top 20 player in the form he exhibited in the last few tournaments.

Remember that Roger hasn't beaten any of the top 8 players since Tsonga at the Australian Open, and he's lost to quite a few lower ranked players. I take heart from his gutsy performance against Nadal, but if he can't lock into that then he could very well slip out of the top 8 before the WTF.

 

[Kieran]

How has Rafa got more points on the Race board (9010) than the Tour board (8860)?

He's only counting the same points from February...

 

[ClayDeath]

we cant really go by his 2 showings on clay recently:

he was trying out a new racquet.

he might have been able to take cinci but he ran into rafa. he was pretty much in the hunt in that match.

 

[DarthFed]

People are still putting way too much stock on one and a half good sets. It's what happened as soon as Rafa stepped up that is more telling. If Roger was going to play his way out of the crap form this year he would have done so. Best to press the reset button on the nightmare 2013 season

 

[lacatch]

DarthFed--I think he DID play his way "out of the crap from this year" in his match with Rafa. Many thought he would be annihilated based on his previous form, but he pulled out a "vintage Federer" performance which shows he still has it. I think the difference came from two factors: 1) His back feeling better; and more importantly 2)Motivation. Roger REALLY wanted to show Nadal and the rest of the world that he can still compete at the top, especially on fast hards, and he went all out. And wasn't that far from winning the second set if a few points had turned out differently. BIG step forward, especially mentally, for the rest of '13 and especially '14.

 

[Kieran]

People are still putting way too much stock on one and a half good sets. It's what happened as soon as Rafa stepped up that is more telling. If Roger was going to play his way out of the crap form this year he would have done so. Best to press the reset button on the nightmare 2013 season

I think with Roger, as I said elsewhere, he found his range against Rafa but that's not the same as finding his form. We won't know until NY. It might be that his play in that match acts as a spur and a reminder of how he can play, or it could be just a one-off that happened because he's familiar with his opponent...

 

[DarthFed]

DarthFed--I think he DID play his way "out of the crap from this year" in his match with Rafa. Many thought he would be annihilated based on his previous form, but he pulled out a "vintage Federer" performance which shows he still has it. I think the difference came from two factors: 1) His back feeling better; and more importantly 2)Motivation. Roger REALLY wanted to show Nadal and the rest of the world that he can still compete at the top, especially on fast hards, and he went all out. And wasn't that far from winning the second set if a few points had turned out differently. BIG step forward, especially mentally, for the rest of '13 and especially '14.

Agree to disagree. The question with Roger is not whether he can still produce good tennis on occasion, the question is whether he can do it for a whole match and a whole week, etc. It was easy as cake for Rafa after 4-4 in the 2nd. That isn't getting it done at MS events and especially not majors where you need to play well for 3 sets. Rafa got a couple returns in, stepped up his play and Roger went down quietly. And this is not Rafa on clay we are talking about. At Fed's age and with his record there are no positives in defeat, especially at what had been one of his best tournaments. I hope I'm wrong but I expect an early loss at USO (even before the QF) but maybe he puts it together a bit in the Fall.

 

[ClayDeath]

what about tommy haas? does he have a chance?

 

[Didi]

I hope I'm wrong but I expect an early loss at USO (even before the QF) but maybe he puts it together a bit in the Fall.

I think to expect him to go out before the QF is a stretch, Darth. Who is going to take him out? Stakhovsky's performance (especially in the clutch) was a one-off, a freak occurrence, probably the best and most gutsy display of S & V I've seen since the heydays of Rafter, Henman and Sampras. We won't see anything like it for a long time. Do you seriously expect him to lose to the likes of Haas, Raonic, Isner, Janowicz, Anderson, Gulbis or Dimitrov? Over best of 5? Come on. They ain't Del Potro, Berdych or one of the Big 3. I would bet my left nut that he makes it to the QF at the very least. Fed is still a huge force on the US Open hardcourts. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he makes the semis.

 

[Front242]

what about tommy haas? does he have a chance?

I sure as hell hope so. Amazing that he's never played the WTF. I mean really, WTF?! Hopefully this year he makes it.

 

[DarthFed]

I hope I'm wrong but I expect an early loss at USO (even before the QF) but maybe he puts it together a bit in the Fall.

I think to expect him to go out before the QF is a stretch, Darth. Who is going to take him out? Stakhovsky's performance (especially in the clutch) was a one-off, a freak occurrence, probably the best and most gutsy display of S & V I've seen since the heydays of Rafter, Henman and Sampras. We won't see anything like it for a long time. Do you seriously expect him to lose to the likes of Haas, Raonic, Isner, Janowicz, Anderson, Gulbis or Dimitrov? Over best of 5? Come on. They ain't Del Potro, Berdych or one of the Big 3. I would bet my left nut that he makes it to the QF at the very least. Fed is still a huge force on the US Open hardcourts. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he makes the semis.

Roger is more vulnerable to major upset at Wimbledon but his form has dipped more and more starting with Wimbledon. I'd consider all those you listed a legit threat vs. "this Fed" except Haas. I'd be very surprised to see him take out one of the big 3 though maybe he has a shot vs. Novak who is struggling big time right now. And if he draws Ferrer in the QF then obviously Roger has a decent shot at getting to the semi and if he suddenly starts playing well he WILL get to the semi pretty rested in that scenario. Wait and see the draw but there are some real threats to Roger this year.
And P.S. there is a reason Stak looked so damn good in the 1st place and Melzer picked up on it.

 

[tented]

First, congrats to Murat for winning the Thread Title of the Day Award.

Second, I'm not worried about Roger not making the WTF, especially with Tsonga in such a questionable condition. We're coming into the time of year when Roger usually does really well, anyway. I know he's not having a particularly good year, but he should still be able to gather enough points to make it to London.

 

[britbox]

I hope I'm wrong but I expect an early loss at USO (even before the QF) but maybe he puts it together a bit in the Fall.

I think to expect him to go out before the QF is a stretch, Darth. Who is going to take him out? Stakhovsky's performance (especially in the clutch) was a one-off, a freak occurrence, probably the best and most gutsy display of S & V I've seen since the heydays of Rafter, Henman and Sampras. We won't see anything like it for a long time. Do you seriously expect him to lose to the likes of Haas, Raonic, Isner, Janowicz, Anderson, Gulbis or Dimitrov? Over best of 5? Come on. They ain't Del Potro, Berdych or one of the Big 3. I would bet my left nut that he makes it to the QF at the very least. Fed is still a huge force on the US Open hardcourts. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he makes the semis.

Roger is more vulnerable to major upset at Wimbledon but his form has dipped more and more starting with Wimbledon. I'd consider all those you listed a legit threat vs. "this Fed" except Haas. I'd be very surprised to see him take out one of the big 3 though maybe he has a shot vs. Novak who is struggling big time right now. And if he draws Ferrer in the QF then obviously Roger has a decent shot at getting to the semi and if he suddenly starts playing well he WILL get to the semi pretty rested in that scenario. Wait and see the draw but there are some real threats to Roger this year.
And P.S. there is a reason Stak looked so damn good in the 1st place and Melzer picked up on it.

C'mon Darth - he's not been playing well and he's had back issues, but the guy isn't chopped liver. Even as he's hit rock bottom this year, he's still comfortably a Top 8 player.

The Favourite? No. A threat? He will always be a threat until he hangs it up. I'm not hanging too much on the remainder of the year, but I'm guessing he'll show you he's still got more in the tank than has been on display during 2013. Assuming his back problems aren't an issue, I think he's a lock for the QFs at Flushing and then we'll see how he goes.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

roger is almost guaranteed to qualify..

its so clear..all the dead hard sums work out in his favour.

that's the reality.

It all depends upon which Roger shows up - the one who played Nadal or the one who played the half dozen or so previous matches. If its the one who played Nadal then I think he's right there with Ferrer, Berdych, and Del Potro; if not, well, he's not even a top 20 player in the form he exhibited in the last few tournaments.

Remember that Roger hasn't beaten any of the top 8 players since Tsonga at the Australian Open, and he's lost to quite a few lower ranked players. I take heart from his gutsy performance against Nadal, but if he can't lock into that then he could very well slip out of the top 8 before the WTF.

theres already a big points cushion over gasquet and tsonga is injured..he would have to have a pile of really early defeats not to qualify..i just don't see that happening.