Would Rafa be wiser to cut back on...

[Kieran]

...clay.

Think about it. He has about 8 slams left where he's either favourite, co-favourite, or you wouldn't be the least surprised if he wins them. Then maybe 4 slams where he's a dangerous outsider, waiting for the top players to lose, or get injured.

So that's 12 slams, and only 3 are on clay. He's prohibitive favourite on these clay slams until proven otherwise, but that still leaves 9 slams where he would have no reason to fear anybody and it would be logical for him to tackle these as a priority, legacy-wise.

He scoots away to Rio and South America to line his itchy pants pockets on clay, but wasn't the impetus for last season's great revival truly sewn at Indian Wells? He was the best HC player last season, and he started this year by reaching the final in Oz. He's a player on hards, but more so when he turns up fresh and fit. He can bluff and grind his way on clay playing way below his max, but on hards he needs to be sharp and well-drilled.

On grass, he's been way off the pace the last two seasons. Yet his grasscourt pedigree is only second to Federer, in the modern game. In fact, Rafa is the only player to win two majors on hards, grass and clay.

So why doesn't he commit more to hards, and ease the workload on clay? I know, he gets most of his seasons haul of points on clay, whereas on hards, there are players who fancy themselves and have better records than him.

But just think of the legacy for a minute: his remaining time is limited. What's the difference if he has 8 or 10 RG titles? 2 slams, yes, but it would make his career total look slanty. Why not focus himself on the other surfaces, make a stronger push at Wimbledon, the US Open, skip those late season exo tourneys after the WTF, and maybe even cut back his summer clay schedule.

Maybe he should look at the bigger picture, and not be so miserly and fretful in his approach. What you think?

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

he should stay with the clay, for a start he really enjoys playing on it, and for another start i don't see him winning wimbledon again, those days seem over but the other 3 majors are still within reach.

tennis here or there isn't the problem..he seems hyperactive to me, if its not playing tennis, its the gym, or practise, then he likes playing golf, football, mountain bike up hills etc, the nov/dec exhibitions so he never rests his body at all even if he isn't playing in a atp tourney.

 

[shawnbm]

I don't think Rafa can afford to give up all those clay court events on which he annually feasts. They have,historically, been the bedrock of his ranking and have kept him in the top four even when not playing his best. It is the clay that serves as the foundation for his entire game, particularly in the confidence area. He leaps out of the clay season primed and running--at times it gets him SW19 and on three occasions, he finally made it to the final in NY (winning twice). No, I think he cuts back elsewhere (hards especially) and keeps lapping up the clay points and titles in Paris two more times.

 

[Tennis Miller]

...clay.

Think about it. He has about 8 slams left where he's either favourite, co-favourite, or you wouldn't be the least surprised if he wins them. Then maybe 4 slams where he's a dangerous outsider, waiting for the top players to lose, or get injured.

So that's 12 slams, and only 3 are on clay. He's prohibitive favourite on these clay slams until proven otherwise, but that still leaves 9 slams where he would have no reason to fear anybody and it would be logical for him to tackle these as a priority, legacy-wise.

He scoots away to Rio and South America to line his itchy pants pockets on clay, but wasn't the impetus for last season's great revival truly sewn at Indian Wells? He was the best HC player last season, and he started this year by reaching the final in Oz. He's a player on hards, but more so when he turns up fresh and fit. He can bluff and grind his way on clay playing way below his max, but on hards he needs to be sharp and well-drilled.

On grass, he's been way off the pace the last two seasons. Yet his grasscourt pedigree is only second to Federer, in the modern game. In fact, Rafa is the only player to win two majors on hards, grass and clay.

So why doesn't he commit more to hards, and ease the workload on clay? I know, he gets most of his seasons haul of points on clay, whereas on hards, there are players who fancy themselves and have better records than him.

But just think of the legacy for a minute: his remaining time is limited. What's the difference if he has 8 or 10 RG titles? 2 slams, yes, but it would make his career total look slanty. Why not focus himself on the other surfaces, make a stronger push at Wimbledon, the US Open, skip those late season exo tourneys after the WTF, and maybe even cut back his summer clay schedule.

Maybe he should look at the bigger picture, and not be so miserly and fretful in his approach. What you think?

The type of approach you're suggesting is pretty much what Lendl did in going after Wimbledon, probably at the expense of a few other slams. I always admired him for it, but I also feel he doesn't get the historical recognition and credit he deserves because he "only" won 8 overall.

I think Rafa has to keep piling up the clay slam total and hope a few others break his way (for example, getting Roger in a final). Intentionally playing more hards and less clay at this point in his career seems too physically risky.


Cheers
TM

 

[Kieran]

That's the thing, though: he's shown in the last couple of HC slams that he doesn't need things to go his way (well, apart from his back injury): he outplayed Nole on a fast hard court.

I think the clay season wears him out. Lendl is a great call on this, I think he skipped the FO to prepare for Wimbo, which was really giving up some great opportunities...

 

[Front242]

No doubt about it that the clay season wears him out. It wouldn't tire him out as much if he didn't win them all and therefore play more matches than everyone else but then again, it's a catch 22, does he want more trophies or less trophies. Not sure cutting back clay would help him at all for Wimbledon, for example. The trouble there is more to do with the transition of surfaces and the grass being much faster the first week. 2 weeks off between RG and Wimbledon is enough for any top player.

 

[Tennis Miller]

That's the thing, though: he's shown in the last couple of HC slams that he doesn't need things to go his way (well, apart from his back injury): he outplayed Nole on a fast hard court.

I think the clay season wears him out. Lendl is a great call on this, I think he skipped the FO to prepare for Wimbo, which was really giving up some great opportunities...

I think he needs the clay season to get his mojo going, but you're right, he doesn't need to play ALL of them!

Cheers
TM

 

[isabelle]

He should skip Barcelona to stay fresh and as healthy as possible

 

[TsarMatt]

I am in complete agreement. Nadal is the most dominant and prolific clay-courter of all time. He has proven numerous times that he is - in every sense of the word - a God on the dirt. I understand he plays his best tennis on there, sure, but what else does he need to prove (talking about the 250 and 500 titles)? Even though his success is still freakishly good on the HCs, I wouldn't mind seeing the man play there more frequently, if only to further improve himself on that surface.

Then again, he is Nadal and he can do whatever he damn well pleases!

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

That's funny Kieran, because in one of the former versions of this board, 4-5 years ago, when I was a newbie, I got a lot of criticism because I suggested the same thing. So, yeah, I agree with you. I have agreed with that position for 4-5 years. Because he was the best ever on clay even back then.

 

[Kieran]

4-5 years ago, the clay was a checkout till for Rafa, racking up the MS titles, RG on rote. Now, he's got to formulate an exit strategy. He's at the tail end of his career, so where can he make the most impact? I think he could win at least one, but maybe two Wimbledons, but not if he's knackered after RG and can't practice, or play Halle. Next season will be better, with the extra week.

As for hards, he can succeed there too. If he's to win more majors, is prefer they're not in Paris, no matter how awesome and unprecedented his dominance is there..

 

[huntingyou]

I think realistcally, Rafa has the potential for 4-5 Slams within the next 11 events. Two FO, one Wimbledon and one on hards. (He could win zero, such it's the nature of predicting slams for a player who has injuries issues and has done so much already)

The question is how can he maximise his schedule where he can be at his peak both mentally and physically for the slams. I agree with the OP, there is no need for Barcelona and the back to back MS of Madrid/Rome. Basically, ideally he would win two events before RG, arrive fresh and hopefully have a straight forward tournament win or lose.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Come on folks. Clay is the bread and butter of Rafa. If he does not do well on clay
in an year, he is sure to have an all around bad year that year. In fact, uncle Toni has
even made the exact statement. Their approach is to have a good clay season to
break even and then anything else that comes along is gravy.

Also, remember that even when he stopped playing after a bad Wimbledon in 2012,
he still managed to remain in top 5 by virtue of all the clay points that he accrued.

However, my suggestion to Rafa would be to play on Clay only during the proper
clay season. i.e., after Miami and upto RG only.

At the beginning of his career, Rafa used to play in clay tournaments throughout
the year whenever he could find one. Later, when he realized that he is one of the
big names in the game, he cut out all clay tournaments that are not in the proper
clay season part. However, later when he realized that he is getting banged up,
he wanted to participate in clay tournaments even outside of the regulary
clay season. He is in that mode now.

Basically, Rafa should stick with MC, Barcelona, Rome, Madrid and RG only for
his clay diet. He should keep away from South American clay season in February
and also the post Wimbledon clay tournaments such as Hamburg.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

rafa cannot help himself, if its clay...he's gonna play.

he is like augustus gloop out of willy wonka.."father, father, I vont more cake"..rafa vonts more clay, 3 masters, a 500, and the French. he is a bit full after all that clay.

 

[Sundaymorningguy]

I think he would be wise to cut out the smaller clay events. I mean the problem that I think most of the top players don't take into account when making a schedule is more often than not they make the later parts of a tournament.

 

[Kieran]

I dunno, I think the too players expect to reach the latter parts of every tourney. I doubt Nadal entered Rio just hoping for the best (no matter what he says in the pressers)...

 

[Busted]

...clay.

Think about it. He has about 8 slams left where he's either favourite, co-favourite, or you wouldn't be the least surprised if he wins them. Then maybe 4 slams where he's a dangerous outsider, waiting for the top players to lose, or get injured.

So that's 12 slams, and only 3 are on clay. He's prohibitive favourite on these clay slams until proven otherwise, but that still leaves 9 slams where he would have no reason to fear anybody and it would be logical for him to tackle these as a priority, legacy-wise.

He scoots away to Rio and South America to line his itchy pants pockets on clay, but wasn't the impetus for last season's great revival truly sewn at Indian Wells? He was the best HC player last season, and he started this year by reaching the final in Oz. He's a player on hards, but more so when he turns up fresh and fit. He can bluff and grind his way on clay playing way below his max, but on hards he needs to be sharp and well-drilled.

On grass, he's been way off the pace the last two seasons. Yet his grasscourt pedigree is only second to Federer, in the modern game. In fact, Rafa is the only player to win two majors on hards, grass and clay.

So why doesn't he commit more to hards, and ease the workload on clay? I know, he gets most of his seasons haul of points on clay, whereas on hards, there are players who fancy themselves and have better records than him.

But just think of the legacy for a minute: his remaining time is limited. What's the difference if he has 8 or 10 RG titles? 2 slams, yes, but it would make his career total look slanty. Why not focus himself on the other surfaces, make a stronger push at Wimbledon, the US Open, skip those late season exo tourneys after the WTF, and maybe even cut back his summer clay schedule.

Maybe he should look at the bigger picture, and not be so miserly and fretful in his approach. What you think?

Nadal's not going to give up clay courts because they're a sure thing for him. All he has to do is show and guys crumble before him. Plus, his knees can't survive a lengthy hard court campaign year after year anymore. He's going to be 28 soon and he's got the knees of a 69 year-old. :laydownlaughing He won't be Roger and playing at 32-33. That's probably the major reason he probably won't surpass Roger's Slam total. I'm surprised he hasn't whined to the other Slam tourneys to change their surfaces to clay yet - as long as it's not that blue clay they tried in Madrid in 2012. Roger thrived on that slick, fast clay. Nadal...not so much. The bottom line for Nadal is always going to be playing on surfaces that are easier on his knees than hardcourts. The easy wins and points he picks up playing clay makes it stupid for him not to play a lot of clay tourneys.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

That's all good busted.

But, RN, being a top all surface player (not just a CLAY GOAT), should refrain
from playing on clay (even though he can easily win those events) before IW and
after FO. He can play all the clay he wants to in between. I think that would be
the best strategy for him.

Roger does not play in Newport just because it is grass and he can easily
win. If he had played Newport Grass Tournament every year, I guess that
would have fetched him at least 10 more titles.

Need to have some basic sense in scheduling.

 

[Kieran]

Well, maybe not the knees of a 69 year old, Busted! :laydownlaughing

To some Fedfans like GS&M, the injuries are a reason to purr delightedly, but it wasn't his knees that gifted Stan Oz. It was his back, and for this reason I agree, injuries will be one factor that might keep Roger ahead in the slam count.

Another, more obvious reason is that Rafa actually has had historic rivals throughout his career. For jus first nine majors, Roger had no great rival. Rafa had Roger, then Novak. But at his best, Rafa can beat any of them, which is the point of the thread: not that Rafa play til he's 33, but that he maximise his opportunities in the next 2-3 seasons. Preferably, off clay, since he's secure there. Not even at the expense of clay, either, but that clay shouldn't be played unnecessarily, at the expense of the other surfaces. He's the only player to have two majors on clay-grass-hards.

He can add to this resume, off clay, to make his legacy even more impressive...

 

[britbox]

Roger didn't have Rosol or Darcis to contend with either in those days. He must have been born under a lucky star.