Will Kei Nishikori be the next world no 1?

Will Nishikori be the next new first time world no 1?


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Denis

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I think he will if he stays healthy.

This year he really started going for his shots and the stuff I've seen him do against Murray, Nadal, Djokovic and today against Ferrer on the biggest stages makes me think nobody of his generation will be able to challenge him. Obviously, he will either need to take the next step and beat the top 3 guys on a consistent basis or it might take a bit longer and it will happen when they need to retire.

He has a good serve, takes his shots quick and early, amazing backand, great variety, and that DTL stuff is just jawdropping.

Thoughts?
 

Denis

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tented said:
No. The next world No. 1 will be either Federer or Nadal.

I meant those that have not already been no 1. What is your problem man.
 

Kieran

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Well, someone's going to get it, and Kei has had a great year, he's doing virtually everything right, and he's good on all surfaces. But he's injury prone as well. I think if he can not only consolidate next year, but also build on things by winning a slam, then he's as good a name as any to bandy about. I think he has much more willpower than your average player.

I wouldn't bet on him, but I can't see anybody else who I'd place ahead of him, either...
 

tented

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Denisovich said:
tented said:
No. The next world No. 1 will be either Federer or Nadal.

I meant those that have not already been no 1. What is your problem man.

You asked who will be the "next" No. 1 -- you didn't specify it needed to be someone who hasn't already been No. 1.
 

Denis

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tented said:
Denisovich said:
tented said:
No. The next world No. 1 will be either Federer or Nadal.

I meant those that have not already been no 1. What is your problem man.

You asked who will be the "next" No. 1 -- you didn't specify it needed to be someone who hasn't already been No. 1.

I added a poll and specified the question.
 

DarthFed

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Probably not but as Kieran mentioned he might be as good a candidate as anyone. I still think the next first time #1 player will be Dimitrov with an outside chance for Murray (easy to forget he never quite reached #1).
 

DarthFed

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Also, one thing working in Kei's favor is that he doesn't appear to have a clearly weak surface. He made the USO final and has shown game on pretty much everything this year. Health seems to be his biggest concern.
 

Denis

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DarthFed said:
Also, one thing working in Kei's favor is that he doesn't appear to have a clearly weak surface. He made the USO final and has shown game on pretty much everything this year. Health seems to be his biggest concern.

Very true. If he gets older though the injuries might go away for his peak years as he will be stronger. Grass hasnt been too great of a surface for him although 4R this year at Wimbledon is pretty decent.
 

Kieran

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The Big If is whether or not he can improve on this year, because he's going to have to, significantly. The fear is that he's stretched thin just getting what he has. Next year will tell the tale of Kei even more. If he slumps, then he's just another guy in the line...
 

Denis

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Kieran said:
The Big If is whether or not he can improve on this year, because he's going to have to, significantly. The fear is that he's stretched thin just getting what he has. Next year will tell the tale of Kei even more. If he slumps, then he's just another guy in the line...

His game has the potential to get much better results. Don't think the improvement necessarily will have to be significant in terms of game. Just results. And while the big three are around it's going to be hard for sure. I think realistically it might happen in a couple of years, but who knows maybe earlier.
 

Denis

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He is world no 5 now and he only played 5 masters, in which he reached 1 final and two semis.

Health is the major issue so far.
 

El Dude

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Some candidates:

Kei Nishikori - Turns 25 in December so is really in his prime. As stated, his big issue is staying healthy and, um, Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, and Roger Federer, not to mention Andy Murray and the rest. I really like Kei's "Baby Sampras" game, but I'd still say his odds of every being #1 are less than even, probably far less. Still, if he's healthy for an entire year AND some of the other top players run into some bad luck, then he could do it.

Andy Murray - The clock is ticking for Andy. Who knows, maybe he'll rage back next year but he's on a similar timeline as Novak and an all-around inferior player. Unlike Rafa, Andy doesn't seem to be able to use set-backs as fuel for a rise to the top. Andy is already competing with Guillermo Vilas as the best player never to read #1.

Grigor Dimitrov - He's got the talent but perhaps not the head for it. He could be his generation's David Nalbandian, although he still has a ways to go to be as good as Daveed. He's still "only" 23, so he's got about half a decade of prime years to go so I'm not writing him off yet. While some (i.e. Kieran) are disappointed with his performance this year, let us not forget that his ranking has risen substantially each year since going pro: 493, 288, 106, 76, 48, 23, 11. Maybe next year he vies for the top 5-6, and the year after...well, that would be as good a year as any to grab the #1 spot. I still like his chances a tad better than Kei's.

Milos Raonic - of the "Big Three" of his generation--along with Nishikori and Dimitrov--Raonic has perhaps the lowest ceiling, but we shouldn't undersell him. He keeps making small improvements, which are reflected in his year-end rankings over the last few years: #13 in 2012, #11 in 2013, and #8 this year (assuming Marin Cilic doesn't have a massive comeback at the WTF, the Milos would finish no lower than #9). But its harder to imagine Raonic as #1 than it is Nishikori or Dimitrov. A perfect storm would have to happen: The current Big Four would all have to subtantially decline and/or be injured, and none of his peers--or the up-and-coming next generation--would have to rise to the challenge. Regardless, Milos will be around for years to come, waiting for his chance at greatness-by-default.

Nick Kyrgios - It is easy to overrate Kyrgios because he beat Nadal at the US Open, but its also probably easy to underrate him. He has the talent to be a top 5 player and, at age 19, has a lot of room to grow. Finishing this year at #52 is nice for a 19-year old, but I'd like to see how he does over the next two years. Elite players tend to be in the top 10 by age 21-22, so he's got plenty of time, but he if he's going to get to the top he can't stall out.

Borna Coric - See Kyrgios, but more so - younger, more unproven, but also possibly more talented. Coric just turned 18 so is very, very young and still quite far away from being an elite player. But finishing the year in the top 100 is a nice feat for an 18-year old and he has a legit shot at being a top 20 player by his 20th birthday.

Outsiders: Tsonga, Berdych, Wawrinka, Del Potro. All worth mentioning, but none with a real chance at it, in my opinion.
 

GameSetAndMath

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I would take Andy of the list. Andy may even win a slam sometime in the next few years.
But, I really doubt he will ever make it to #1 considering Novak will be there throughout
(as they are of the same age) and new players seem to be already getting the better of Murray
already in important events (Grigor in Wimby and Kei at O2 etc).
 

Denis

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That actually goes for that whole generation: tsonga, wawrinka, berdych etc. they don't really have a chance outside the era of Nadal and Djokovic.

Don't see dimitrov have the mental goods either. Kyrgios and coric is too early to tell I agree.
 

El Dude

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GameSetAndMath said:
I would take Andy of the list. Andy may even win a slam sometime in the next few years.
But, I really doubt he will ever make it to #1 considering Novak will be there throughout
(as they are of the same age) and new players seem to be already getting the better of Murray
already in important events (Grigor in Wimby and Kei at O2 etc).

Well the list is spur-of-the-moment of players with more than a snowball's chance in hell, and I think Andy qualifies. Of course no one on that list really stands out as a probable #1 player. Kei and Milos are good but probably no good enough. Andy is a bit erratic these days, is exactly Novak's age and perhaps has seen his best days already. Nick and Borna are too young to tell for sure (and probably too unproven to get the honor of being referred to by their first names). Grigor is...Grigor. So I think Andy belongs and is as likely as any of those players to be the next #1.
 

TennisFanatic7

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I can't see any of the mentioned players as world number one. Andy is so weak on clay and there's so much of it on the calendar that he'd probably have to win two of the other three slams just to compensate for the landslide of points he'll lose to other top players in that time frame. Even when he held US Open and Wimbledon championships at once he was nowhere near reaching the top spot, albeit that was partially down to injury. I'd give him as much chance as any others mentioned here but after this year, I don't know.

Nishikori is probably the most logical choice out of the next/lost generation, but for some reason I just don't see it in him either. Maybe it's the injuries. Also, for all the good things he's done this year, he'll start his 2015 campaign as a 25 year old and he's yet to win even a Masters 1000 title.

Dimitrov seems to make spurts of progress then fade for a couple of months, he's a streaky one so it's not out of the question that he might have one massive "up" year and make it to the top spot, I wouldn't be all that surprised. I'm going off Grigor for some reason though.

Raonic is the most solid of the "next-gen" trio I think, but with lower peaks than Kei or Dim, he's fairly consistent across all surfaces and tends to at least meet his seeding in most tournaments. Again though, I don't think I see the real "numero uno" quality in him, he's a slightly better version of Berdych in my opinion.

Somebody has to be the next new number one though, and it's not certain that Nole, Roger and Rafa will hold the top spot long enough to keep these 4 guys off it before the Kyrgios/Coric generation overtakes the lot of them. Obviously I hope Andy gets it, and I think he has the best chance of these four, depending on whether his 2014 is the exception or the rule to the remainder of his career.

Therefore, I'm voting no in the poll!
 

tented

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Denisovich said:
That actually goes for that whole generation: tsonga, wawrinka, berdych etc. they don't really have a chance outside the era of Nadal and Djokovic.

But I thought Wawrinka is a great player? ;)
 

Denis

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tented said:
Denisovich said:
That actually goes for that whole generation: tsonga, wawrinka, berdych etc. they don't really have a chance outside the era of Nadal and Djokovic.

But I thought Wawrinka is a great player? ;)

As I said, he is too old. He is same gen as Nadal Novak. I think it needs to be a younger player, hence my pick for Kei.

Also, I'm avoiding any discussion involving the term 'great'. ;)