Wild Speculation: How would a healthy Rafa have done in 2004 on clay?

[El Dude]

In thinking about breakthroughs in that other thread, I took a look (again) at Rafa's early career. He is somewhat unusual for a GOAT to have seemingly stalled for a couple years, finishing 2003 at #49 and 2004 at #51. But a deeper look reveals what Rafa fans--and serious fans in 2004--know: he missed clay season due to a stress fracture injury. He did win his first title in August, on clay in Poland.

So the question, for those who were already Rafa fans and/or serious tennis fans back in 2004: How would he have done on clay? Would he have won at least a clay Masters, even challenged for Roland Garros at 18 years old? What say you?

 

[Moxie]

Naturally, I have wondered about this over the years. Worth remembering that during the whole European clay season and in So. America, Rafa would have been only 17, until the late rounds of RG. I think he would likely have made a bit more noise than the previous year, but he was mostly having individual good wins, rather than winning tournaments, obviously. He was into the main draw of RG and had to pull out, though, so he might have made a bigger name for himself earlier by going a few good rounds there. Even though he was precocious, he was making a steady progression from age 16, so I don't think he'd have won a lot more in the way of titles, but we may have been more aware of him. Also remember that he helped Spain win DC at the end of 2004, so that was a big boost to his confidence going into 2005, when he actually did breakthrough.

 

[Moxie]

BTW, the above was off of memory. I went back and looked at Rafa's 2004 results. His first tournament of that year was Brisbane, and he made the final, where he was beaten by Hrabty. This was the first final he had made. A year later, he made his first final of an MS1000 in Miami. Note that both of those are HC tournaments. So he's always had some chops on HCs. Also an odd factoid I noticed: the only clay tournament he played before getting injured that year, he beat a 33-year-old Ivanisovic, then ranked 505. Odd.

 

[El Dude]

I've poured over his record before, but for some reason never really looked into 2004...I just assumed it was like 2003. But I really think there's good reason to believe that if he had played a full season he'd have been top 20 at least, maybe top 10. What a talent.

 

[Moxie]

I've poured over his record before, but for some reason never really looked into 2004...I just assumed it was like 2003. But I really think there's good reason to believe that if he had played a full season he'd have been top 20 at least, maybe top 10. What a talent.

I think he was up to #38 when he got hurt, and that with basically the full clay calendar in front of him, still at 17. Even just with some solid wins in each, he could well have broken into the top 20. This is why I try to remind Darth, for example, that Nadal didn't "skyrocket" from oblivion to a RG title and #2 in the world in mid-2005. It was pretty steady forward progress, until the injury that year that derailed his clay season and slid him back to #50 by EOY. Still, he finally won his first tournament, and had DC wins for Spain in SF and Fs. All of this, and a bit more maturity and muscle at 18/19 set him up for a break-out 2005.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Right now Rafa is one of very few players who have won a Slam the first time they played it. He would not have that record if he was healthy enough to play in 2004. Surely, he would have accumulated lot of points in the clay season in 2004 also, and would have become a top 20 player and perhaps would have won at least one Masters on clay.

But, I think this record sounds cool.

 

[mrzz]

Would lose to Kuerten, question himself and decide to play football.

 

[Moxie]

Would lose to Kuerten, question himself and decide to play football.

Except it was Federer who lost to Kuerten in 2004, and he didn't quit the game. B-)

 

[mrzz]

Except it was Federer who lost to Kuerten in 2004, and he didn't quit the game. B-)

Just because he sucks at football.

 

[Moxie]

Right now Rafa is one of very few players who have won a Slam the first time they played it. He would not have that record if he was healthy enough to play in 2004. Surely, he would have accumulated lot of points in the clay season in 2004 also, and would have become a top 20 player and perhaps would have won at least one Masters on clay.

But, I think this record sounds cool.

It doesn't just sound cool, it IS cool. But I have always said that it was because he was unfit to play in 2004, when he was entered into the main draw but had to bow out. Still, winning it at 18/19, the first time he played it is not chopped liver, especially since he did beat #1 to do it. However, it's not a record. It just puts him on a short list.

 

[Moxie]

Just because he sucks at football.

I think he has said it was his 2nd choice sport. Maybe the other option was fashion. He seemed to pick tennis and fashion. (With differing levels of success, in the later.)

 

[Ricardo]

Would lose to Kuerten, question himself and decide to play football.

Mr Kuerten himself didn’t retire out of embarrassment after losing to a very green teenager (not even a clay courted) at his peak, why would anyone else? Besides, Rafa makes mince meat out of Guyana, whichever way he slices it.

 

[mrzz]

Mr Kuerten himself didn’t retire out of embarrassment after losing to a very green teenager (not even a clay courted) at his peak, why would anyone else? Besides, Rafa makes mince meat out of Guyana, whichever way he slices it.

You mean this match?