Why 2018 is going to be a blood-bath (maybe)

[El Dude]

By "blood-bath" I mean a wild and woolly season, with no clearly dominant player and lots of upsets, and perhaps some surprise title winners.

I hate to say it, but I suspect that a decade from now, 2017 will be viewed as the last year of Fedal dominance - maybe even the last year that any of the Big Four are clearly dominant. I do think that Roger and Rafa could win more Slams (if I were to guess, I think they'll win 2 or 3 more between the two of them, maybe 4-5...so 3 is my best guess...but with those two, who knows?). Let me explain.

Roger and Rafa aren't getting any younger, and both show signs of injury concern. Roger was nigh unbeatable in the first half of 2017, but something seemed off come grass season. Now he cruised through Wimbledon, but I'm not sure how he would've fared against a healthy Novak or Andy. As for Rafa, he had a great year as well but wasn't unbeatable and had a fair amount of good fortune with draws.

Now consider: Novak and Andy will be back. We don't know at what level, but they'll be back.

Consider also: There will be a very strong "second tier," with not only a developing Zverev, a peaking Dimitrov and now Goffin, a hungry Thiem, a resurgent del Potro, Cilic, a healthy Raonic and Nishikori, etc.

One more: Next Gen is getting closer and closer. Kyrgios is an elite talent who is always dangerous; what happens if he finds himself a coach that can handle his tempestuous nature? Rublev, Shapo, Tiafoe, Khachanov, Medvedev, Chung, Coric, Tsitsipas, etc...all are improving. Maybe none are ready to challenge the elites in 2018, but by year's end some should be pushing for spots in the top 20, and maybe one or two the top 10 by 2019.

2017 could also be viewed as the beginning of the sea change that we've been waiting for for a few years.
Despite it being dominated by Fedal, it wasn't dominated by the Big Four, with several new big title winners. Consider that in 2016, all 15 big titles were won by players born between 1985-88 (Wawrinka, Nadal, Djokovic, Murray, and CIlic). In 2017, we had a range of 1981 to 1997 (Federer, Nadal, Dimitrov, Sock, Zverev). More importantly, it was the first year in which a player born after 1988 won a big title, and this year there were three: Dimitrov, Sock, and Zverev.

So as we end 2017 and look to 2018, there are a few overlapping questions:

*Will the Big Four Hegemony re-assert itself? How will Djokurray come back? How much more do Fedal have in them? Will Stan re-claim his spot in the expanded Big Five, or start slipping like his fellow 1985ers (Berdych, Tsonga)?

*Is late 2017 a sign that Lost Gen is now able to step up and compete for Slams?

*Will any among Next Gen join Thiem and Zverev in the (near) elite?

In other words, you have two clusters of questions: those about the older generations and those about the younger. What kind of year we'll have in 2018 will largely be determined by how these two clusters play out in relation to each other. We could see a Big Four renaissance for another year or two, or we could see their hegemony crumble quicker than we thought. Or, as I suspect, somewhere in-between: with a "Wild West" context that I've been predicting (wrongly) for a few years now. Maybe 2018 is the year...

 

[mrzz]

I concur that it is hard to see someone dominating, but... most years in this decade had something completely unpredictable happening, so maybe some guy like Youzhny steps up and wins a major (!!!!!!!!!!!).

Two names that could become big time spoilers in hard courts in 2018 are Querrey and Anderson (to add to the op already long list of names).

Strangely enough, one guy I could see dominating in 2018 would be a healthy and in-form del Potro. I am not saying that it will happen for sure, but if this proves to be the case, it will look "natural" in hindsight...

 

[El Dude]

Haha re: Youzhny. He seems like a good candidate for retirement. I was surprised to Robredo playing challengers.

I have secret high hopes for Del Potro, but like Dimitrov--another favorite of mine--disappointment has been the norm, and I'd rather go into the year with low expectations.

I am also tentatively thinking that Novak is going to bounce-back in a big way. Not 2011/2015, and probably not for the first few months, but I think he's going to be the best player in the second half of the year, maybe even dominant: the USO, a couple Masters and the WTF.

Here are my big title predictions:

Australian Open: Dimitrov
Indian Wells: Federer
Miami: del Potro
Monte Carlo: Goffin
Madrid: Thiem
Rome: Murray
Roland Garros: Nadal
Wimbledon: Federer
Canada: Zverev
Cincinnati: Djokovic
US Open: Djokovic
Shanghai: Djokovic
Paris: Kyrgios
WTF: Djokovic (and YE1)

I mean, whothafuck knows, but it is fun to guess - and I'm happy to put my balls on the chopping block.

 

[rafanoy1992]

Haha re: Youzhny. He seems like a good candidate for retirement. I was surprised to Robredo playing challengers.

I have secret high hopes for Del Potro, but like Dimitrov--another favorite of mine--disappointment has been the norm, and I'd rather go into the year with low expectations.

I am also tentatively thinking that Novak is going to bounce-back in a big way. Not 2011/2015, and probably not for the first few months, but I think he's going to be the best player in the second half of the year, maybe even dominant: the USO, a couple Masters and the WTF.

Here are my big title predictions:

Australian Open: Dimitrov
Indian Wells: Federer
Miami: del Potro
Monte Carlo: Goffin
Madrid: Thiem
Rome: Murray
Roland Garros: Nadal
Wimbledon: Federer
Canada: Zverev
Cincinnati: Djokovic
US Open: Djokovic
Shanghai: Djokovic
Paris: Kyrgios
WTF: Djokovic (and YE1)

I mean, whothafuck knows, but it is fun to guess - and I'm happy to put my balls on the chopping block.

One more thing: Djokovic and Murray will start 2018 outside of the Top 10 so Round of 16 and QF matches will be fun and crazy...

 

[Moxie]

One more thing: Djokovic and Murray will start 2018 outside of the Top 10 so Round of 16 and QF matches will be fun and crazy...

I agree, and also with other players in not exactly "normal" seeding places, I think the AO could be a bit wild.

@GameSetAndMath gave us a good listing of where people are ranked, and how that might affect the AO on the Status Report on Injured Players thread.

 

[El Dude]

Here's a crazy thought: Novak hasn't won a big title in 16 months, since the 2016 Rogers Cup. That's the biggest gap since 2008-09, when he went 18 months between the 2008 Rome Masters and 2009 Paris Masters.

Rafa only had one year+ gap since he broke through in 2005: between the 2014 Madrid Masters and 2016 Monte Carlo - almost two years. Since then he's won five big titles--two Slams and three Masters--so Novak fans can be hopeful.

As for Roger, he also didn't have a year-long gap from 2003 until 2012-14, when he went exactly two years between winning the Cincinnati Masters. He then went about 17 months between the 2015 Cincinnati Masters and 2017 Australian Open.

 

[Moxie]

It's probably fair to say that 2017 was the last Fedal year. I get your two clusters of questions, and well-organized.

1.) I think everyone's question will be how and when Novak comes back. It doesn't sound like he's in shape to take the AO. Rafa and Roger are at least well-placed, at #1 and #2 to still see some good results, particularly on their favorite surfaces, until they're not. Murray will start to feature again, but he's got no Lendl. Not sure where to put Stan, but we'll have to see how he comes back from knee surgery, too. Personally, I think he's finished winning Slams, and will become more of a spoiler.

2.) Has Dimitrov passed the Rubicon, finally? How long before Zverev comes into full power? What of Thiem, Kyrgios and del Potro? You assume that Raonic and Kei come back healthy, but we'll see there, too. Both have been a bit plagued. Basically everyone else is even more of a question mark, but some of these youngsters, like Rublev and Shapo, especially, will start moving up by more than small increments.

 

[Moxie]

Here's a crazy thought: Novak hasn't won a big title in 16 months, since the 2016 Rogers Cup. That's the biggest gap since 2008-09, when he went 18 months between the 2008 Rome Masters and 2009 Paris Masters.

Rafa only had one year+ gap since he broke through in 2005: between the 2014 Madrid Masters and 2016 Monte Carlo - almost two years. Since then he's won five big titles--two Slams and three Masters--so Novak fans can be hopeful.

As for Roger, he also didn't have a year-long gap from 2003 until 2012-14, when he went exactly two years between winning the Cincinnati Masters. He then went about 17 months between the 2015 Cincinnati Masters and 2017 Australian Open.

This is a good comparison: mid-late career trough, followed by resurgence. No reason to think that Novak can't find his groove again, and kill it again, for a while. I do think that the gap that Roger and Rafa just put between him and them is pretty much insurmountable, though. Maybe 4 more, to tie Rafa, which would be why, channeling Darth, I would say Rafa has to stay focused and committed.

 

[El Dude]

A few random thoughts in response to you posts, Moxie.

If I were to guess, Roger will win one more (20), Rafa two (18), and Novak three (15). But who knows.

I think Dimitrov is going to have a nice little 3-5 year stretch. I think he has definitely crossed the "Rubicon" - or maybe gotten the Baby Federer monkey off his back - but I don't think he'll all of a sudden become a great player. But I do see a Slam or two in his future. Finally!

As for Zverev, I suspect he'll have another strong year in 2018, but not win a Slam until 2019. Similarly with Rublev, although on a lower level. His game still seems a bit rough, mainly due to volatile emotions. I see him reaching the top 20 in 2018, but not pushing for the top 10 until 2019. Shapo is so young, but will advance quickly. I also see a possible top 20 finish next year.

Who knows about Kei and Milos...I don't have a good feeling about their futures, though. The second tier group (#5-15ish) is a lot more crowded and they might be edged out and consigned to Gasquet Land: worst of the second tier, or best of the third tier.

Kyrgios remains the wildcard. When he's on, he plays like an elite. But he's so moody, so inconsistent. I could see him being one of those "could have been greats" who wins a Master or two, but never manages to win a Slam. But he certainly has the talent to do so.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

If Stan's surgery is good, there's no reason for him to be too worried. He's talented and he's proven it time and again. Novak and Murray will play good tennis I guess.

I really feel Roger will be the favourite for AO. Only that guy is in great form on HCs despite a bit lackluster results in patches. He'll not be ineffective at AO. That's where I expect him to be cutting diamonds barring any fuck ups. Then, Wimbledon is going to be another place for Roger to be a contender. But, he might not be the lone contender there. Novak has proven his ability to trouble Roger there. Anyways, I don't expect Roger to wane. He should be doing ok at the very least and should finish the year in top 3 or 4. Slam chances are certainly there.

Rafa seems to have a real problem against Roger on HCs. And I suspect, some other players could expose his weakness on this surface too. Rafa will do great on clay again with decent result on hards but I won't expect him to win a slam outside clay again right now.

Novak and Murray have a lot to fight for on hard and grass.

P.S.: Geez, I never considered weak gen and newer gens. I always happen to discount them.

Zverev
Dimitrov

I expect only these guys to be possibly dangerous. I give Dimitrov a bit more of a chance to go all the way at a slam. Whether he can deliver against a prime Roger or another other prime decent hard court player/GC player is a question mark.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

Just like AO last year, this AO is also going to be crazy. Great times for AO. Djokorray to be the low seeded elites this time.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I hope Roger takes USO seriously in 2018 and get one more title there. This is important as if he does so, he will be in sole possession of the record for max # of USO titles. Currently, he is tied at 5 with two other folks.

p.s. Incidentally, if Roger wins AO, hw will tie Novak for max # of AO titles.

 

[Federberg]

Lol! Mate you’re like a broken record. You’ve been trying to call time on Fedal for years now. You’ll be right one day. But there comes a time when this isn’t intelligent speculation anymore. Just sounds like the drunk at the end of the bar desperate to be heard. I would respect this a bit more if you were close to predicting this year...

 

[El Dude]

Who are you talking too, @Federberg? I'm not "calling time" on Fedal - I'm just saying that they won't have it as easy in 2018 as they did in 2017, and that 2017 was probably he last year they'll truly dominate as a pair. Read above - I still predict both to win a Slam.

Also, in 2013 almost no one predicted Roger could win another Slam. There was hope in 2014-15, but then 2016 happened. 2017 was a surprise to everyone.

As for Nadal, after his poor 2015-16 showings, the only person I know of who thought he'd find his way again was Carol.

 

[mrzz]

I guess the NextGen will get soundly beaten this year. Too many good guys coming back, in fact the lost generation trio of Dimitrov, Raonic and Nishikori (if healthy) can give all of them but Zverev a good beating, not to mention big 3+1+1, del Potro and my favorite boxer in tennis, Tsonga.

By the way, I am pretty sure Fedal are both quite aware that lot of people think they just had it easy in 2017. Anyone who followed closely knows that they actually did raise their level. So I guess they are eager to cross paths with Djokovic and Murray as soon as they can... they could have an unpleasant surprise for sure, but it would be fun anyway.

 

[Moxie]

As for Nadal, after his poor 2015-16 showings, the only person I know of who thought he'd find his way again was Carol.

Now, that's not quite true...I think a lot of his fans, and even some non-fans believed he had another Slam in him, or 2. Personally, I didn't think he'd be #1 again, much less YE#1, and I only secretly hoped for a 2-Slam year, but I don't think he'd been written off by most, and certainly not his fans. I'll agree that another full-on Fedal year was a surprise, but the did up their levels, and we've yet to see how/how fast Murray, Djokovic and the others come back, so 2018 could be pretty good for them, too. We'll see.

 

[El Dude]

@Moxie, so we're close to agreement. I thought he might have another RG in him, especially once Novak started flailing, but what surprised me is his overall excellence and sustained health. I don't think anyone, including Carol, predicted another YE1 and two Slams in a year.

@mrzz , it isn't either/or - they raised their level and had easier competition. I mean, just look at Rafa's run at the US Open - I haven't done the research, but I wouldn't be surprised if that was the weakest path to victory since the Australian Open in the early 1980s.

 

[Moxie]

@Moxie, so we're close to agreement. I thought he might have another RG in him, especially once Novak started flailing, but what surprised me is his overall excellence and sustained health. I don't think anyone, including Carol, predicted another YE1 and two Slams in a year.

@mrzz , it isn't either/or - they raised their level and had easier competition. I mean, just look at Rafa's run at the US Open - I haven't done the research, but I wouldn't be surprised if that was the weakest path to victory since the Australian Open in the early 1980s.

As @Federberg has said, though, you can make that point that Murray and Djokovic also shone when Roger and Rafa were faded. It does cut both ways. But I think this also makes the argument for the Big 4. Wawrinka shines on occasion, but Murray was the man to take the YE#1 last year, with Rafa and Roger absent, and Djokovic in a fade.

Surely Nadal's path to the USO was pretty easy. I'm not sure what that means to you. Personally, I think that, given that he's missed so many Majors due to injury, perhaps he was due an easy one. Whatever. Roger, Marin, and Sasha might have made it a better challenge, but they weren't there.

 

[Moxie]

I hope Roger takes USO seriously in 2018 and get one more title there. This is important as if he does so, he will be in sole possession of the record for max # of USO titles. Currently, he is tied at 5 with two other folks.

p.s. Incidentally, if Roger wins AO, hw will tie Novak for max # of AO titles.

If we're mentioning what we hope for, I hope that Rafa finally gets his 2nd AO title, which would be the double-career Slam.

 

[Federberg]

Who are you talking too, @Federberg? I'm not "calling time" on Fedal - I'm just saying that they won't have it as easy in 2018 as they did in 2017, and that 2017 was probably he last year they'll truly dominate as a pair. Read above - I still predict both to win a Slam.

Also, in 2013 almost no one predicted Roger could win another Slam. There was hope in 2014-15, but then 2016 happened. 2017 was a surprise to everyone.

As for Nadal, after his poor 2015-16 showings, the only person I know of who thought he'd find his way again was Carol.

Maybe I misread you but you did seem to be saying we might look back and see 2017 as the last year of dominance. I could live with that statement if there was supporting evidence but there’s nothing. Statements like that could have been made years ago, but in a year where Fedal clean up, where’s the beef?