Who do you think will win at least one Slam?

[El Dude]

Among current players on tour who have not won a Slam. Consider it "probable" - better than 50% chance, or that you just have a hunch about.

As you can see, I didn't include players like Ferrer, Monfils, Gasquet, Isner, etc. Maybe this isn't fair considering I included Berdych and Tsonga and I should have included Monfils as a crazy wildcard, but space was limited. Similarly with Borna Coric, who seems very unlikely to be more than a top 20 player, and maybe not even that. Another Bernard Tomic?

I also didn't include those young players--Tiafoe, Kozlov, Shapovalov, etc--that aren't in the top 100.

 

[El Dude]

I voted for Milos, Zverev, Thiem, Pouille, Kyrgios, and Fritz.

Of the 89-93 generation, it seems Milos has the best chance. I just don't see Kei getting over the hump; maybe a Masters eventually, but I think his chances of actually winning a Slam are less than Milos.

Then we have Thiem and Pouille, who seem to be poised to take over from Berdych and Tsonga as the second tier players. I think they have good chances of winning a Slam or two because of what will be a weaker field for a couple years before some player asserts dominance. Kyrgios will be the dangerous guy on tour who will lose some really silly matches, but be feared by everyone. If he wins one, I think he'll win several - but that first will be really tough.

Of the really young guys, Zverev and Fritz seem the most promising, although I'm starting to get a hair of doubt about Fritz. But Zverev looks like he'll be a multi-Slam winner, and Fritz should win at least one or two.

I wouldn't be totally surprised if a player like Khachanov or Edmund sneaks a Slam in...but I do think it is unlikely.

 

[Kieran]

I'd knock Sock off that list - I don't see him ever reaching a slam quarter final, let alone winning one. And Tsonga and Berdych - even if they faced each other in a grand slam final , Djokovic or somebody else would win it.

I think the likes of Kei or Milos would need to play each other so that one of them would win one, but otherwise, they seem too well-behaved to skip the queue and barge their way to the front.

Grigor? Goffin? Edmund? I assume these are typos?

From the list? One of the youngsters, but so far not enough is known about them at that level. Gun to my head? Zverev will win at least one slam...

 

[kskate2]

I don't see an option for none. :snicker

 

[El Dude]

Come on folks, vote.

Kieran, I hear you - but wanted to give a variety of options. The list isn't meant to represent who I think will win a Slam, but would conceivably could.

 

[kskate2]

I can't honestly vote for any of them Dude.

Milos - Don't really see him being able to put 2 weeks worth of solid matches together and be able to get over the hump mentally in the final
Kei - Had his chance at the USO. Not likely to get back to a slam final w/ his current serve
Berd & JoWilly - That ship has sailed
Thiem - Overplays. He needs to manage his schedule so he can peak for a slam and even then I don't know that he could put 2 weeks of matches together either
Nick - Has all the weapons, but can he sustain himself mentally and focus for 7 matches?
Pouille - Serve is a bit of a liability
Zverev - Another one that has all the weapons. Can he focus for 2 weeks and 7 matches? Probably the only one I could see putting it all together at some point in the future.
Goffin - Not enough power or aggression
Dimi - Nada
Sock - 2nd serve and BH are huge liabilities
Fritz, Kachchanov, Edmund - Don't know enough, but what I've seen they lack mental fortitude to win one

 

[El Dude]

I hear you, Kelli - and the only one of those players that, in my mind, looks like a true "probable" Slam winner is Zverev. But the fact is, SOMEONE has to win, right? Unless we see a situation where Novak, Andy, and Stan pass the baton to Zverev without any gaps, and no real challengers.

I see us entering a phase not unlike the late 90s-early 00s, or perhaps more accurately like the early 70s. John Newcombe (born in 1944) was the best player born between Rod Laver (1938) and Jimmy Connors (1952), with a secondary cast of Arthur Ashe (1943); Stan Smith, Ilie Nastase, and Jan Kodes (all born in 1946)--none of whom won more than 3 Slams. I could see Zverev being the Newcombe of the next gen: a player that will be better than the rest, but not stand out as truly dominant like some of the greats. That means that some other players will also win a Slam or two, and for me the most likely candidates are Thiem, Pouille, Kyrgios, Fritz, and possibly some of the younger guys not yet in the top 100: Tiafoe, Lee, Kozlov, Rublev, Tsitsipas, Ruud, Shapovalov, M Ymer, Aliassime...but it is too soon to tell for most of these guys.

Novak and Andy turn 30 in May of 2017 and even if they can maintain their stranglehold on the tour for another couple years, it won't be forever--and they'll almost certainly diminish before players that we don't even know about come into their prime 5+ years from now. This is why I'm looking at that list and thinking, "some of these guys are going to win Slams." Aside from Zverev it is a bit baffling, but some of them almost certainly will.

Perhaps this poll and question would have been better phrased as, "Of the following players, who do you think are most likely to win at least one Slam?"

 

[Puppet Master]

Please exclude the disgusting error machine from Japan. He bends over more than Bendych.
On a serious note, I, like many others, still can't give up on Grigor for some reason, even though the guy is clearly powerless and needs a elite player to choke and play terribly to win, but there is this hint of an insane talent that I just can't get over. Probably Thiem though, out of everyone listed. There is nothing wrong with Thiem winning a slam, I am just afraid it will happen far too late.

 

[Carol]

The question should be "what year those players will win a GS? :huh:

 

[the AntiPusher]

I meant to vote for Zverev..oops although my sentimental is JowillieTs :clap

 

[mrzz]

Reading this thread I am pretty sure that Federer, Djokovic and Nadal will end their careers with 305 slams combined.

 

[El Dude]

Reading this thread I am pretty sure that Federer, Djokovic and Nadal will end their careers with 305 slams combined.

Such an over-exaggeration! By my calculations, based upon the thread responses Roger will finish with 24, Rafa with 26, and Novak with 37, plus Andy with 18 - so that's 105, not 305!

 

[kskate2]

Reading this thread I am pretty sure that Federer, Djokovic and Nadal will end their careers with 305 slams combined.

Such an over-exaggeration! By my calculations, based upon the thread responses Roger will finish with 24, Rafa with 26, and Novak with 37, plus Andy with 18 - so that's 105, not 305!

You forgot somebody. According to my crystal ball Stanimal will end up with 10, so that equals 115.

 

[herios]

Reading this thread I am pretty sure that Federer, Djokovic and Nadal will end their careers with 305 slams combined.

Such an over-exaggeration! By my calculations, based upon the thread responses Roger will finish with 24, Rafa with 26, and Novak with 37, plus Andy with 18 - so that's 105, not 305!

You forgot somebody. According to my crystal ball Stanimal will end up with 10, so that equals 115.

And a good chunk of these will be won in the wheelchair events

 

[mrzz]

Reading this thread I am pretty sure that Federer, Djokovic and Nadal will end their careers with 305 slams combined.

Such an over-exaggeration! By my calculations, based upon the thread responses Roger will finish with 24, Rafa with 26, and Novak with 37, plus Andy with 18 - so that's 105, not 305!

You clearly forgot the non-linear GOAT correction that would add another 200 slams to Federer.