Who could win a Slam?

[El Dude]

Of course anyone could win a Slam, but let's be reasonable. Stan Wawrinka surprised us all by breaking the Big Four Hegemony, which opens the proverbial door for "anyone" to win a Slam.

In the Nishikori thread Kirijax suggested that Kei could win a Slam if healthy. As I wrote, my initial response was "no way," but upon further thinking I thought, "Why not?"

This got me thinking: which players have what it takes to seriously challenge for and win a Slam? I'm not talking about only those that probably will win a Slam eventually, or the many that conceivably could if everyone else in the top 20 came down with the flu at the right time, but those players - like a Wawrinka - that have the complete game that if they play to their peak at the right time, they could win one.

After watching Nishikori play yesterday, I think he is legit. I hadn't seen that big serve before. In some ways he reminded me of a combination of Agassi (great returner, defender) and Sampras (big serve).

The first player that comes to mind is Tomas Berdych. I think 2014 or 2015 might be his window of opportunity, as the Big Four slip a notch but before Berdych declines too steeply.

Grigor Dimitrov seems like only a matter of time.

One player that comes to mind as a real dark horse is Ernests Gulbis. I know, it is a long-shot, but it certainly seems like he's finally putting it all together.

I just don't see Ferrer or Tsonga doing it, but I suppose it is possible for Ferrer if the stars align. Tsonga seems lost.

It will be another year or two until we get a real sense of the potential of young players like Thiem, Vesely, Kyrgios, etc.

[/i]Who else? Who do you think has a legit shot at a Slam?

 

[Kieran]

Well with Grigor, "only a matter of time" seems like a provocative statement. It's not like the guy is banging on the door. He had a QF in Oz, but since then he hasn't nudged anyone aside.

Gulbis? Not even if he was the only player entered, would he win a slam.

Ferrer? No.

Berdych? See Gulbis.

They really are a lost generation, with barely any finals at MS level between them, let alone much of calibre at slam level.

I think with Nishi, what's great so far this year is his mentality. That's what I look for in future slam winners: mentality. Shot-making alone won't win majors, but you can have a narrow game, but a deep and tough mentality, and that'll do it. So far, Nishi is more dogged and upright than he's been before. He's facing up to the question, rather than ducking them, and this is a good sign. Plus, he has good tools, in both serve and return.

Will he ever win a major? I don't know. Time will tell. I think you were correct ages ago, El Dude, when you said this is a generation that might be totally skipped in the running order...

 

[brokenshoelace]

Berdych has a better chance than Gulbis since, well, he actually makes it deep in tournaments, but he needs A LOT (and I mean A LOT) of chips to fall.

I wouldn't be surprised if/when Grigor wins a major but, a matter of time? I'm still not sure about that. I think there's quite a few holes in his game still, but he's definitely the best among the rising bunch (keep in mind though, it's not like the usual suspect are going to be extinct next year and Dimitrov will find himself on top of the mountain. The kid still has ways to go).

 

[El Dude]

I say "a matter of time" for Grigor because he's just 22, turning 23 soon, and is the single player, I think, who will benefit most when the Big Four start to decline over the next few years. A 22-year old Grigor can't quite beat a 27-year old Rafa (but at least makes it interesting), but what about a 24-year old Grigor and a 29-year old Rafa?

So I am not saying that he's knocking at the door, but he's close and, given his continued and sustained improvement, I can see him being Slam-worthy (as in a legit contender) as soon as 2015.

But Kieran, yeah, they are a lost generation. Consider that the current youngest player to win a Slam was born in 1988 (Del Potro). This means that no players turning 25 or younger this year--born in 1989 or later--have won Slams.

But again, I think we're entering an interesting era in which the Big Four start to slip a bit, and the Lost Generation peak. We might see some surprise Slam champions; actually, we just did. So my question is, if we do some more new winners who might they be? Who do you think? New Slam champions ARE only a matter of time, so the question is who and when? Certainly the Big Four won't win every Slam title for the next five years.

 

[Denis]

Interesting thread. It will only happen if Nadal, Djokovic and Murray somehow all screw up in one single tournament (and Federer in the short term). If that happens, you need to be around. On the one hand, this makes me think that someone who is incredibly consistant might be able to pull it off aka (I hate to say it) someone like Ferrer. On the other hand, it might just as well be a player with a lot of potential who actually delivers. Say someone like Gulbis.

I think Nishikori could fall in the former category, but really everything needs to fall in place. The list is rather short though, also because of the experience of the past decade.

 

[Moxie]

^ I agree that in the short term it would take a lot to get through what are still the big 4. However, they are increasingly given to donations. I'm not jumping on a bandwagon here, but I like Nishikori for his sturdiness, mentally, and his ability to execute a game plan. As everyone says, the question with him is fitness. I think Dimitrov will be considered an under-achiever if he never gets a Major. He has many tools, and is learning to be more judicious in employing them. I have a harder time pegging someone like Gulbis. He's got lovely skills and is working harder on his commitment, and his waffly head, but I have a hard time seeing him maintaining great focus through a Major.

I wonder if a question within this question is who would be the next new player to win at RG or Wimbledon?