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In another thread, I wrote:
I thought this was a worthy topic for its own thread (and thankfully one that should be relatively immune to GOAT argument spats!)
To add a bit more. The proverbial "Lost Gen" is now in their early 30s, or will be by the end of next year, so I think we can safely assume that they've peaked and begun to decline. In fact, they probably peaked half a decade ago, when Grigor Dimitrov won the WTF and Nishikori and Raonic were still fixtures in the second week of Slams.
Next Gen--which I have typically seen as players born in the 1994-98 range, but prefer to include Dominic Thiem (Sept, 1993) and kind of see Casper Ruud (Dec, 1998) as veering into the Millenial Gen--is finishing the 2022 season as age 24-28, meaning tennis prime years. So one would think that they're peaking right now - at least as a whole cohort.
And of course the next gen, or what I call Millenial Gen (born 1999-2003) is just starting to make some serious waves, and mostly be two of its youngest members, with both Alcaraz and Rune born in 2003. As good as they've both been this year, I think it is safe to say that they're still a couple years from peaking. And this seems true of players like Felix Auger-Aliassime (born 2000) and Jannik Sinner (2001), both of whom seem to have more upside to fulfill. I'd add Musetti to this list, as well as maybe Sebastian Korda and one or two others.
But if we imagine a line before which are players who have not yet reached their peak, and after which are players who are as good as they'll ever be, which Next Genners have already reached their peak? I'm not talking about titles won, but in terms of seeing their best level.
I think we've seen the best we're going to see from Daniil Medvedev. He had a rough 2022, but the player he was in 2021 was his peak form and the question is whether he can get back to that level. If he can, I could see him finishing his career with 2-4 Slams and a few more big titles.
I'm unsure about guys like Zverev, Tsitsipas, Rublev, Hurkacz, Berretini, Ruud, Tiafoe, Fritz, etc. I see them in groups, in terms of what I see their actual upside as:
I think both Zverev and Tsitsipas have another "half-step" possible, but it is entirely mental. Meaning, I think we've seen their best level of play, but not consistently so.
I'd like to say Rublev has another octave, but I don't think so - I think he's going to continue being what he's been the last few years, and because of that I see a Masters or two in his future but probably not a Slam, unless magic strikes. I see Hurkacz and Berretini in a similar category: Solid second tier types and candidates for darkhorse Slams, but more likely maxing out at Masters titles.
Half a step behind those guys, for me, are Ruud, Tiafoe, Fritz, as well as Masters winners like Coric, Khachanov, and Norrie. I don't see any of these guys winning Slams, except for maybe one random opportunistic Slam amongst all of them. Ruud probably deserves to be in the group above this one, but he just seems like more of a high floor guy to me, but without that "extra something" to be a serious Slam threat...sort of like David Goffin at his best, or maybe Kei Nishikori. In the loss to Alcaraz I saw a guy with a nice, high floor, but when facing the types of players who reach Slam finals, his A game isn't going to match up, so it will always be the other guy's Slam to lose.
Finally, there are two guys that I see as wildcards: Nick Kyrgios and Denis Shapovalov. As I mentioned, I can see a scenario where Kyrgios has a Stanimal-esque run. Chances are against it--that sort of run is, well, it has only really happened once. But it can also happen in a smaller fashion; maybe Nick has a magical Australian Open and wins it, or maybe he just sprinkles in a Masters or two.
Shapo could continue as-is for years and end up with a rather disappointing career. Or, perhaps with the right coach, could clean up his game and take a big leap forward, and at least join the "Masters threat list" with guys like Rublev and Berretini.
Thoughts?
I thought this was a worthy topic for its own thread (and thankfully one that should be relatively immune to GOAT argument spats!)
To add a bit more. The proverbial "Lost Gen" is now in their early 30s, or will be by the end of next year, so I think we can safely assume that they've peaked and begun to decline. In fact, they probably peaked half a decade ago, when Grigor Dimitrov won the WTF and Nishikori and Raonic were still fixtures in the second week of Slams.
Next Gen--which I have typically seen as players born in the 1994-98 range, but prefer to include Dominic Thiem (Sept, 1993) and kind of see Casper Ruud (Dec, 1998) as veering into the Millenial Gen--is finishing the 2022 season as age 24-28, meaning tennis prime years. So one would think that they're peaking right now - at least as a whole cohort.
And of course the next gen, or what I call Millenial Gen (born 1999-2003) is just starting to make some serious waves, and mostly be two of its youngest members, with both Alcaraz and Rune born in 2003. As good as they've both been this year, I think it is safe to say that they're still a couple years from peaking. And this seems true of players like Felix Auger-Aliassime (born 2000) and Jannik Sinner (2001), both of whom seem to have more upside to fulfill. I'd add Musetti to this list, as well as maybe Sebastian Korda and one or two others.
But if we imagine a line before which are players who have not yet reached their peak, and after which are players who are as good as they'll ever be, which Next Genners have already reached their peak? I'm not talking about titles won, but in terms of seeing their best level.
I think we've seen the best we're going to see from Daniil Medvedev. He had a rough 2022, but the player he was in 2021 was his peak form and the question is whether he can get back to that level. If he can, I could see him finishing his career with 2-4 Slams and a few more big titles.
I'm unsure about guys like Zverev, Tsitsipas, Rublev, Hurkacz, Berretini, Ruud, Tiafoe, Fritz, etc. I see them in groups, in terms of what I see their actual upside as:
I think both Zverev and Tsitsipas have another "half-step" possible, but it is entirely mental. Meaning, I think we've seen their best level of play, but not consistently so.
I'd like to say Rublev has another octave, but I don't think so - I think he's going to continue being what he's been the last few years, and because of that I see a Masters or two in his future but probably not a Slam, unless magic strikes. I see Hurkacz and Berretini in a similar category: Solid second tier types and candidates for darkhorse Slams, but more likely maxing out at Masters titles.
Half a step behind those guys, for me, are Ruud, Tiafoe, Fritz, as well as Masters winners like Coric, Khachanov, and Norrie. I don't see any of these guys winning Slams, except for maybe one random opportunistic Slam amongst all of them. Ruud probably deserves to be in the group above this one, but he just seems like more of a high floor guy to me, but without that "extra something" to be a serious Slam threat...sort of like David Goffin at his best, or maybe Kei Nishikori. In the loss to Alcaraz I saw a guy with a nice, high floor, but when facing the types of players who reach Slam finals, his A game isn't going to match up, so it will always be the other guy's Slam to lose.
Finally, there are two guys that I see as wildcards: Nick Kyrgios and Denis Shapovalov. As I mentioned, I can see a scenario where Kyrgios has a Stanimal-esque run. Chances are against it--that sort of run is, well, it has only really happened once. But it can also happen in a smaller fashion; maybe Nick has a magical Australian Open and wins it, or maybe he just sprinkles in a Masters or two.
Shapo could continue as-is for years and end up with a rather disappointing career. Or, perhaps with the right coach, could clean up his game and take a big leap forward, and at least join the "Masters threat list" with guys like Rublev and Berretini.
Thoughts?
