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Roger Federer will turn 33 later this year and seems to have righted the ship from the disastrous 2013 campaign in which he looked to be in steep decline (it seems it was mainly a combination of a lingering back injury and resulting loss in confidence). I think we can assume that he'll stay good to his word to stick around until the 2016 Olympic games, when he'll be 34 going on 35. But after that, all bets are off - I wouldn't be surprised to see him retire later that year, perhaps at Basel.
Anyhow, the question arose for me - which of the Big Four (other three, really) do you think will stick around longest? Rafa turns 28 soon and Andy and Novak 27. They're all at an age where players often lose a half-step and transition from what I all "peak phase" to "plateau phase," which players tend to hang out in for about half a decade, with further steep decline and/or retirement happening around 31-32.
The elite players that not only hang around after 31 or so, but at a very high level, are exceptions - namely Agassi and Connors and now Federer. But Sampras, Edberg, Becker, Lendl, McEnroe, and Wilander--not to mention Borg--all retired or faded away by the time they got into their early 30s. Even Lendl, whose peak was later than most great players in that he didn't win a Slam until age 24 and had his best years at age 25-27, faded sharply around age 31-32.
But what do we expect from these three? Who has the mind-set to continue on the grind of the tour longest? Not to mention health? Cali has expressed the view that players can be just as good in their early 30s as they were in their mid-20s; this is debatable, but I think there's some truth to it in that some players do manage to remain at a very high level - if they have the mentality and conditioning to do so. Anyone who is in their mid-30s or older knows that while you can remain in good shape, it takes more and more work the older you get.
I think also there's a chemical change - a matter of testosterone. The desire to win is stronger when you're young and, I think, when you haven't become a father. When a man becomes a father there's often less of biological urge to "make one's mark," or at least it changes. When you have kids at home then priorities start to shift, as might soon be the case with Novak Djokovic.
What do you think?
Anyhow, the question arose for me - which of the Big Four (other three, really) do you think will stick around longest? Rafa turns 28 soon and Andy and Novak 27. They're all at an age where players often lose a half-step and transition from what I all "peak phase" to "plateau phase," which players tend to hang out in for about half a decade, with further steep decline and/or retirement happening around 31-32.
The elite players that not only hang around after 31 or so, but at a very high level, are exceptions - namely Agassi and Connors and now Federer. But Sampras, Edberg, Becker, Lendl, McEnroe, and Wilander--not to mention Borg--all retired or faded away by the time they got into their early 30s. Even Lendl, whose peak was later than most great players in that he didn't win a Slam until age 24 and had his best years at age 25-27, faded sharply around age 31-32.
But what do we expect from these three? Who has the mind-set to continue on the grind of the tour longest? Not to mention health? Cali has expressed the view that players can be just as good in their early 30s as they were in their mid-20s; this is debatable, but I think there's some truth to it in that some players do manage to remain at a very high level - if they have the mentality and conditioning to do so. Anyone who is in their mid-30s or older knows that while you can remain in good shape, it takes more and more work the older you get.
I think also there's a chemical change - a matter of testosterone. The desire to win is stronger when you're young and, I think, when you haven't become a father. When a man becomes a father there's often less of biological urge to "make one's mark," or at least it changes. When you have kids at home then priorities start to shift, as might soon be the case with Novak Djokovic.
What do you think?
