When will Novak lose the #1 ranking (and can he surpass Roger's 302 weeks at #1)?

[El Dude]

So what do you think? Novak is closing in on 170 weeks at #1, is all but guaranteed to surpass 200 weeks next year. He's currently 28 years and 5 months, and will turn 29 in May of 2016.

By the way, as of Monday he'll be tied with John McEnroe for fifth most weeks at #1 in the ATP rankings (1973-present). Then there's a huge gap to Jimmy Connors with 268, Ivan Lendl at 270, Pete Sampras at 286, and "Mr 300" Roger Federer at 302.

2015 is obviously locked up and given his huge point total (16785) he's pretty much guaranteed to remain #1 at least until next summer. Consider the points he has to defend:

2015
Nov (2500): Paris Masters, World Tour Finals

2016
Jan (2045): Australian Open W, Qatar QF
Feb (300): Dubai F
Mar (1040): Indian Wells, Davis Cup
Apr (2000): Miami Masters, Monte Carlo
May (2200): Roland Garros, Rome
June (2000): Wimbledon
August (1200): Canada, Cincinnati
Sept (2000): US Open
Oct (1500): Shanghai, China

So now let's consider the worst-case scenario - if Novak doesn't play any of those tournaments and what his point total would be. He would end the year with a still substantial 14285, end January with 12240, Feb with 11940, Mar with 10900, April with 8900, May with 6700, etc. In other words, even if he didn't play any matches for the next six months he'd remain #1 until April or May. That gets him to about 200 weeks.

But of course we can't expect that even if Novak drops off, it will be that extreme. My guess is that 2016 will be his third best year, after 2015 and 2011. He'll probably win about two Slams (maybe 1-3), several Masters (3-5) and be the favorite for the WTF once again and almost certainly finish his fifth year as the year-end #1.

In other words, 2016 is his to lose. Not only is he unlikely to do anything more than drop a fraction, there's no likely candidate to challenge him. That said, I do think we'll start seeing more from the younger generations. But it probably won't be until 2017 or 2018 that we see a real power shift.

So taking all that into account, I think we can say...

*Novak will glide past 200 weeks at #1 unless something catastrophic happens
*Novak is the favorite to finish 2016 at #1 again, which would bring his total weeks to about 230 and consecutive weeks to about 130.
*Barring something completely unexpected, the earliest he might lose the #1 ranking is probably some time in 2017, the year he turns 30 years old.

So again, 200 weeks is a foregone conclusion and 250+ seems very possible, even probable. 300? It is a distinct possibility. But consider that if Novak got to 300 weeks without losing the #1, it would be sometime in the April/May range of 2018, around his 31st birthday. By Novak's 31st birthday Nick Kygrios will be 23, Thanasi Kokkinakis and Hyeon Chung will be 22, Borna Coric and Alex Zverev will be 21, etc. In other words, the next generation will be entering its prime. And this doesn't even account for players like Kei Nishikori (28), Milos Raonic (27), Grigor Dimitrov (26), Dominic Thiem (24), Jiri Vesely (24), etc, being in their primes. It will get harder and harder for a 30+ year old Novak to defend his throne.

So the point is, while 2016 could be just as "soft" as 2015 in terms of competition for Novak, 2017 will be harder and 2018 might be very competitive. I think also we shouldn't underestimate how hard it is to maintain the level he is currently playing at. Even if he is coasting now, with inevitable age-related decline it coupled with continued improvement from younger players it will be harder and harder to maintain this level.

Anyhow, if I was to guess a time that he'll lose the #1 ranking, it would probably be sometime either in late 2017 or early 2018. So his dominance will last at least into 2017, then he might go through a period similar to Sampras' 1998-00 when Pete swapped #1 back and forth between several other players, but still was able to accrue another 70 or so weeks spread over three years. So in other words, maybe Novak maintains his dominance into mid-to-late 2017 to get to around 250 weeks, and then swaps #1 back and forth with other players in 2018-19 and still surpasses 300 and Roger Federer.

Who knows, really, but it is fun to consider!

 

[nehmeth]

302? As much as I like Novak, I don't have the faith to see that yet.

 

[herios]

1. I am not projecting that far ahead, just enjoy the journey while it lasts. I am happy for what is in the bag and that is 200 weeks guaranteed.
2. Some of these young guns will fall short of expectations. They all need technical, physical and mental development and I am not sure if they will be able to do all those things.
3. You never know what will happen in the future. What I observed this process of aging in tennis keeps continuing and see players retiring later and developing later. And that fact will influence the end result of the big events. We will see the same names as the winners for more than we ever thought. More chances to the current leaders and less for the upcoming generation, for now.
Until some blockbuster talent shows up and these guys we are mentioning here are not in that category, we will keep seeing slams winners in the 24-30 age bracket.

 

[Didi]

I do believe that Murray will take over the #1 spot somewhere in 2017 and share it back and forth with Novak until a new force takes over somewhere in 2018-2019. I know that Andy might not be the popular choice around these boards but I do think he is the logical and most likely one before we start to consider kids who won't be peaking for another 4-5 years on today's tour.

In the past it was the clay season where Murray struggled to amass enough points to make a serious push for the #1 spot. But now we are talking about a three-times semifinalist at Roland Garros who pushed Novak to a deciding fifth set there this season and in the Rome semifinals of 2011 in what was arguably the best clay court battle of the year. He won back-to-back clay titles this season including a clay masters.

Furthermore he's a lock on medium paced hardcourts, having made a total of nine finals at Melbourne, I.W. and Miami combined. He's also the third best player on grass, faster hard courts and Indoors behind Novak and Roger and will very likely become the 2nd best or even on par with Novak on each one of them when Roger enters 2017, if he's not retired by then.

Now if you add Andy's abilities and consistency on all surfaces into one big picture, in theory he should be able to amass enough points to make a serious push for the top spot in 2016-2017. In 2015 so far Andy has amassed 8.750 points, now if we pretend for a second there was no Davis Cup final to be played I think it's safe to say that Andy would have prepared himself as best as he could to aim for as many points in Valencia, Paris Bercy and the Tour Finals as possible, thus breaking the 10.000 points barrier for the first time in his career with a probable finish of around 10.000 - 10.500 points on average.

Now that obviously won't be good enough to dethrone Novak in 2016-2018 even if the Serb drops a level but Andy is clearly improving. If he keeps on improving, remains healthy and scores a peak year of around 11.000 - 12.000 points, it might just be enough to get a brief crack at the #1 spot similar to someone like Becker, Wilander, Roddick or Safin.

Now, the one significant factor that speaks against Murray is his mileage. He's been a force on the tour and a top 4 player all the way back to 2008. He's got a lot of mileage and a tough injury record for a player who is aiming to push for the #1 spot. Maybe too much. Time will tell but as for now I can imagine two possible scenarios. In the first one Djokovic realizes the historical chance ahead of him to break all the records in this sport and dominates for another 3-4 years, surpassing Roger along the way. In the 2nd one it is Murray who dethrones him somewhere in 2017 as the most likely candidate.

 

[Riotbeard]

Who knows, but at 10 slams and 170 weeks, breaking Rogers records is not likely (and it never was), but it is certainly possible.

 

[El Dude]

If we look just at the numbers--10 Slams and 170 weeks at age 28 years and 5 months--one would think, "he probably has a Slam or two left in him but will likely wind down soon." But even if 2015 is his best year and it is all downhill from here, the weakness of the next younger generation (1989-93) and the fact the youngest generation (1994-98) is still several years away from prime-time, makes me think that Roger's records are assailable. Likely? No, not yet. Let's see how 2016 goes, not only how much of his 2015 level Novak retains but perhaps more importantly, how the younger players look.

As a fan of the game, I've been worried about the lack of young talent for a couple years now. But 2015, despite a half-step back from the 89-93 generation, has seen nice forward movement from the 94-98 generation. Consider the current rankings of players from that generation:

30. Kyrgios (20)
46. Coric (18)
51. Chung (19)
74. Kokkinakis (19)
78. Zverev (18)

Not to mention Edmund, Ymer, Donaldson and others on the cusp of the top 100, and even younger guys like Andrey Rublev, Taylor Fritz, and Frances Tiafoe entering the top 200.

The point being, things look better in terms of young talent than they have in years. These guys are still several years from being prime-time players, but I think several of them could start playing spoilers against the current regime as early as 2016.

 

[Kirijax]

I do believe that Murray will take over the #1 spot somewhere in 2017 and share it back and forth with Novak until a new force takes over somewhere in 2018-2019. I know that Andy might not be the popular choice around these boards but I do think he is the logical and most likely one before we start to consider kids who won't be peaking for another 4-5 years on today's tour.

In the past it was the clay season where Murray struggled to amass enough points to make a serious push for the #1 spot. But now we are talking about a three-times semifinalist at Roland Garros who pushed Novak to a deciding fifth set there this season and in the Rome semifinals of 2011 in what was arguably the best clay court battle of the year. He won back-to-back clay titles this season including a clay masters.

Furthermore he's a lock on medium paced hardcourts, having made a total of nine finals at Melbourne, I.W. and Miami combined. He's also the third best player on grass, faster hard courts and Indoors behind Novak and Roger and will very likely become the 2nd best or even on par with Novak on each one of them when Roger enters 2017, if he's not retired by then.

Now if you add Andy's abilities and consistency on all surfaces into one big picture, in theory he should be able to amass enough points to make a serious push for the top spot in 2016-2017. In 2015 so far Andy has amassed 8.750 points, now if we pretend for a second there was no Davis Cup final to be played I think it's safe to say that Andy would have prepared himself as best as he could to aim for as many points in Valencia, Paris Bercy and the Tour Finals as possible, thus breaking the 10.000 points barrier for the first time in his career with a probable finish of around 10.000 - 10.500 points on average.

Now that obviously won't be good enough to dethrone Novak in 2016-2018 even if the Serb drops a level but Andy is clearly improving. If he keeps on improving, remains healthy and scores a peak year of around 11.000 - 12.000 points, it might just be enough to get a brief crack at the #1 spot similar to someone like Becker, Wilander, Roddick or Safin.

Now, the one significant factor that speaks against Murray is his mileage. He's been a force on the tour and a top 4 player all the way back to 2008. He's got a lot of mileage and a tough injury record for a player who is aiming to push for the #1 spot. Maybe too much. Time will tell but as for now I can imagine two possible scenarios. In the first one Djokovic realizes the historical chance ahead of him to break all the records in this sport and dominates for another 3-4 years, surpassing Roger along the way. In the 2nd one it is Murray who dethrones him somewhere in 2017 as the most likely candidate.

Didi, you are my new best friend. Go Murray!

 

[dante1976]

~300 weeks is hard to achieve as hell but... if he finds that extra determination and if some new archenemy(ies) shows up to challenge him, everything is possible 2016 will be "the year" for him and that's it. Personally I don't think he'll get bored of winning so reborn Rafa/Andy with new head on his shoulders or some "new threat" can push him to chase/hold that no1 spot/winning big tournaments.

 

[nehmeth]

Time will tell but as for now I can imagine two possible scenarios. In the first one Djokovic realizes the historical chance ahead of him to break all the records in this sport and dominates for another 3-4 years, surpassing Roger along the way. In the 2nd one it is Murray who dethrones him somewhere in 2017 as the most likely candidate.

The idea of Andy doing it in 2017 is a stretch for me, since he hasn't done it yet. Unless he finds that "thing" he had under Lendl, his role seems destined to be a spoiler rather than the future #1.

 

[herios]

Time will tell but as for now I can imagine two possible scenarios. In the first one Djokovic realizes the historical chance ahead of him to break all the records in this sport and dominates for another 3-4 years, surpassing Roger along the way. In the 2nd one it is Murray who dethrones him somewhere in 2017 as the most likely candidate.

The idea of Andy doing it in 2017 is a stretch for me, since he hasn't done it yet. Unless he finds that "thing" he had under Lendl, his role seems destined to be a spoiler rather than the future #1.

Yes, I concur. And not because I am a Nole fan, but what exactly will make Andy able to have a breakthrough at 30?? Is perhaps Greg Norman going to take Andy over next?

 

[Didi]

I understand your points Nehmeth and Herios but if, big if indeed, Djokovic drops a level or two, gets injured or whatever, who is the most likely candidate to take over that #1 spot if not Murray? I ask because there is no chance in hell any other player is going to become a super consistent all dominant force across all surfaces over night to surpass Djokovic in 2017-2018. The likes of Kei, Grigor and Raonic are light years away from Murray's proven consistency. Rafa and Roger might sneak another slam somewhere down the road but their career trajectory is going down from here on. And all the exciting young guns that Dude mentioned are many years away from entering the status Murray possesses right now.

My point is - if you don't see Murray as a future (not even briefly) Number One, which is legitimate and frankly understandable, then your conclusion must be that Djokovic will remain the #1 for many more years and thus breaking all possible records. There is no other player on the horizon who can seriously stop Djokovic from doing that. That's why I'm curious about Nehmeth on one hand saying he doesn't have the faith in Djokovic about the record of weeks at #1 but on the other hand excluding Murray as a candidate. If you have your doubts about Novak, then your conclusion must be that someone else will become a dominant force over night and dethrone Djokovic in the near future which I believe is an even bigger stretch than pointing out Murray. Who's on you radar to pull off that feat?

 

[nehmeth]

My point is - if you don't see Murray as a future (not even briefly) Number One, which is legitimate and frankly understandable, then your conclusion must be that Djokovic will remain the #1 for many more years and thus breaking all possible records. There is no other player on the horizon who can seriously stop Djokovic from doing that. That's why I'm curious about Nehmeth on one hand saying he doesn't have the faith in Djokovic about the record of weeks at #1 but on the other hand excluding Murray as a candidate.

You make it an either or statement - either Murray makes #1 or Novak remains #1 forever. We may not see the next guy yet, but he could already be out there. Maybe Dimitrov could suddenly find a way to remove his head from his arse and fulfill his promise. Maybe Tomic's father passes in his sleep and Tomic gets a real coach, gets fit and becomes Nole's nemesis. Maybe Kyrgios stops being a di.. :s Well, maybe not that.

While I may not have the faith to believe Novak will beat Roger's 302 weeks, neither do I have the faith that Andy's mental toughness will return to the level during his years with Lendl.

 

[Didi]

That's fair enough. While I do think we will see a new Slam Champion somewhere in 2017 who will also take home a couple of masters and finish in the top 3 similar to Nadal in 2005, I don't think said payer will be anywhere near consistent enough across all surfaces to dethrone Djokovic. After all it took Nadal a ridiculous 65-3 record from Vina del Mar up to the finals of Beijing to overtake Djokovic in October 2013. It's even 62-2 if we exclude Vina Del Mar since it was his first tournament after the long layoff. 62-2! That's unheard-of. That's what it takes to take down Djokovic from the top. And quite frankly even if Kei and Grigor get the serum of Captain America, it won't quite cut it. But then again, maybe somewhere in 2017-2018 during a throhy ceremony on finals sunday we get to hear..."As of tomorrow, you are no longer world number one. Sorry to tell you that mate."

 

[nehmeth]

After all it took Nadal a ridiculous 65-3 record from Vina del Mar up to the finals of Beijing to overtake Djokovic in October 2013. It's even 62-2 if we exclude Vina Del Mar since it was his first tournament after the long layoff. 62-2! That's unheard-of. That's what it takes to take down Djokovic from the top. And quite frankly even if Kei and Grigor get the serum of Captain America, it won't quite cut it.

uzzled

Maybe that's what Rafa found in '13.

 

[dante1976]

 

[El Dude]

LOL, dante.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

There is one more thing that people need to consider here. Novak has so far only played 14 tourneys.
With Bercy and WTF, it will be 16. But, then ATP players can count 19 tourneys for their rankings.
So, Novak has maintained his #1 with three tournaments to spare.

If there is some threat from somebody, Novak can always throw in some extra tourneys to maintain his spot.