What will be the next dominant style of play?

El Dude

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Tennis has seen an interesting change in the way the game has been played, especially over the last 30-40 years. In a way the 80s were the most pivotal as racquets changed, wood was gone and they became larger, but you still had a diversity of top players - from Becker's power game to Edberg's serve and volley finesse, and then someone like Sampras who combined both. Actually, I think in a way you could make an argument that Becker and Edberg are the archetypes of the two major styles of play, which is interesting in that their careers were so evenly matched, even though Becker had to clear dominance in the H2H (25-10), although Edberg led their Grand Slam matchups (3-1).

Anyhow, in the late 90s and early 00s you still had a lot of finesse oriented players at the top, such as Lleyton Hewitt and Juan Carlos Ferrero, and then of course Roger Federer, who seemed versed in all styles. But with the next generation, Rafa, Novak, and Andy, the physicality of the game jumped another notch, with a new level of powerful and grueling baseline tennis. The game today seems to emphasize power and endurance over finesse and quickness, although clearly all aspects are important. But it is hard to imagine even a peak form Lleyton Hewitt being a top player today. Or I could imagine someone like Grigor Dimitrov being far more successful 15 years ago.

But let's get to my question. What could possibly come in and change the way the game is played? Imagine a player that would do to Rafa, Novak and Andy what they did to Federer and his generation? Or what Lendl, Becker, etc did to McEnroe and Connors? I'm not just talking youth, but a new style that, in a way, "solved" or surpassed the old style.

Now a lot of this has to do with the courts themselves. The aggressive baseline game suits the slow courts of the 21st century. If the courts ever speed up again, then we might see more finesse, more serve and volley. But barring that, what kind of player would it take to "surpass and solve" the current dominant players? Clearly it would have to be someone who could not only play the game of the current greats, but had some extra element. Someone who could "short circuit" the endless rallies and five-set matches with a new approach to attacking tennis that we haven't quite seen before.

Any thoughts?
 

DarthFed

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The next wave of tennis is going to be the taller, big servers/power players who can actually move well. I know it sounds weird but I've long tried to picture an "NBA style player" who decided to play tennis instead of basketball. We are talking someone with Isner's height (or a few inches shorter) who could have his serve except this player would be 10 times more athletic. I think as the game and the human race evolves we will see these kind of players in tennis and it might become the dominant style at some point.
 

Federberg

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Excellent thread. I've pondered this very issue a number of times. Before I answer though, a couple of things. I would argue that the likes of Hewitt and JCF were baseliners, definitely not finesse players, excellent movers and timers of the ball, but finesse is not something that springs to mind when I recall their game styles. Also since the old man is still around, and number 2 in the world, I think it's probably more fair to say what the other members of the top 4 did to his generation, not necessarily to him, but I'm being nitpicky!

To the question at hand..

I think that speed and movement aren't going away, whatever evolves will have that as a necessity.

But I do agree, the ability to short circuit the endless baseline rallies is probably going to be an important component. I have often speculated that you'll see a player come along who can hang with the top baseliners, and even push them back, and he will short circuit the point by sneaking in and putting away volleys more frequently. Sort of what Roger tries to do at his current best, but with more success because their greater baseline power pressures shorter returns.

All this of course assumes that technology stays roughly the same. But the truth is, that in order to get a more accurate assessment of what's likely we probably need to have a better understanding about how technology is going to change. That will probably determine what new style will be effective.
 

shawnbm

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I agree with DarthFed--I too have thought along the same lines. Safin was a precursor to this; imagine another Sampras serving in the 130-140s and rushing the net and playing aggressive tennis, but being 6'5" tall or more? Power tennis plus size will the next dominant thing.
 

Federberg

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It could well be height. That makes a lot of sense. When I think of the greats, I often categorise certain of them in one of 2 groupings: evolutionary or revolutionary.

Federer and McEnroe, to me, were evolutionary, while Lendl was revolutionary. Fed and Mac made the best out of the available technology, while Ivan grabbed hold of new technology and changed the game. Before we can be certain where the game goes we need to look at what technological changes can occur to racquet, ball, or court surface technologies. Then from that we'll get a better sense of what type of player would benefit. Just a thought
 

DarthFed

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shawnbm said:
I agree with DarthFed--I too have thought along the same lines. Safin was a precursor to this; imagine another Sampras serving in the 130-140s and rushing the net and playing aggressive tennis, but being 6'5" tall or more? Power tennis plus size will the next dominant thing.

Yep the Safin mold is what I had in mind except it might be Safin 2.0 (little bigger, little more power and little more athletic) that we are referring to, and one that hopefully has a better mind :snicker
 

britbox

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Look at the way the kids are coached.... all the emphasis is on a strong baseline game, double handed backhand, good serve and solid forehand. If you visit a few clubs it's like seeing an "identikit" blueprint. On that basis, I don't see it changing any time soon.
 

Federberg

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I agree britbox. The best coaches let the talented kids develop in their own unique style. One of the things that has held back British juniors is having the eccentricities of their individual styles ironed out by coaches lacking the imagination to realise that those very quirks might be the thing to make them great players. Can you imagine what would have happened to a Stefan Edberg if he was English? :nono They would have spent so much time trying to work on that forehand instead of allowing him to dominate and learn how to win with the awesome backhand. Sadly too many coaches are still like this. Kids need to be helped to make their strengths even stronger, worry about the weaknesses later
 

Haelfix

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I would disagree with this assessment and say there is much less ball bashing now compared to the late 90s and early 2ks. So there was more power players a generation ago.

A few players still do it, but it's much more what I call control tennis now which is really the Spanish school of tennis that pioneered the style.

Much more emphasis on defense, transitions, rallying and court position as opposed to who can hit the most winners to blitz the player off the court.
 

El Dude

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DarthFed said:
The next wave of tennis is going to be the taller, big servers/power players who can actually move well. I know it sounds weird but I've long tried to picture an "NBA style player" who decided to play tennis instead of basketball. We are talking someone with Isner's height (or a few inches shorter) who could have his serve except this player would be 10 times more athletic. I think as the game and the human race evolves we will see these kind of players in tennis and it might become the dominant style at some point.

That sounds right. You know, some of the young guys are in that mold - Kokkinakis (6'5") and Kyrgios (6'4"), for instance. Coric is smaller (6'1", I believe). Zverev is 6'6". Not sure how they move, though. Kokk and Kyrgios seem pretty good, although nothing like Nadal or Djokovic (but who is?).

federberg said:
Excellent thread. I've pondered this very issue a number of times. Before I answer though, a couple of things. I would argue that the likes of Hewitt and JCF were baseliners, definitely not finesse players, excellent movers and timers of the ball, but finesse is not something that springs to mind when I recall their game styles. Also since the old man is still around, and number 2 in the world, I think it's probably more fair to say what the other members of the top 4 did to his generation, not necessarily to him, but I'm being nitpicky!

OK, fair enough. To be honest I didn't watch a lot of tennis in Ferrero's and Hewitt's hey-day. I can see that they are baseliners with good movement, but it seems that they neither excelled in finesse or power - which is why Roger was so much better.


federberg said:
I think that speed and movement aren't going away, whatever evolves will have that as a necessity.

But I do agree, the ability to short circuit the endless baseline rallies is probably going to be an important component. I have often speculated that you'll see a player come along who can hang with the top baseliners, and even push them back, and he will short circuit the point by sneaking in and putting away volleys more frequently. Sort of what Roger tries to do at his current best, but with more success because their greater baseline power pressures shorter returns.

All this of course assumes that technology stays roughly the same. But the truth is, that in order to get a more accurate assessment of what's likely we probably need to have a better understanding about how technology is going to change. That will probably determine what new style will be effective.

I like the Safin 2.0 that shawnbm and DarthFed talked about - that seems to be what would be called for. Oh Marat, what could have been...he really should have been the "bridge player" between Sampras/Agassi and Federer, and Roger's main competitor those first few years. Oh well.

As for technology, it is hard to imagine anything drastic. How much lighter can racquets get?

I suppose the thing that comes to mind is that the ATP might want to balance the court speed closer to historical norms. Maybe they'll adjust courts, or maybe they'll institute new "springier" balls that make the game go faster. My sense, though, is that at some point they'll say, "We really have to do something about these five hour five-setters" and the sport will speed up again.
 

britbox

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federberg said:
I agree britbox. The best coaches let the talented kids develop in their own unique style. One of the things that has held back British juniors is having the eccentricities of their individual styles ironed out by coaches lacking the imagination to realise that those very quirks might be the thing to make them great players. Can you imagine what would have happened to a Stefan Edberg if he was English? :nono They would have spent so much time trying to work on that forehand instead of allowing him to dominate and learn how to win with the awesome backhand. Sadly too many coaches are still like this. Kids need to be helped to make their strengths even stronger, worry about the weaknesses later

Yeah, I subscribed to a lot of lot of Johan Kriek's thoughts on the subject... which were pretty much aligned with what you stated above.
 

brokenshoelace

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Baseline tennis mixed with athleticism and transition games.
 

Haelfix

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Honestly, the way Novak, Murray, Ferrer and Rafa have played slowcourt tennis, and the degree by which they clearly dominate percentages on neutral rallies and how they've neutralized big serves indicates that they've essentially 'solved' slowcourt play. One just doesn't see too much variation on the general theme, and when we do, it usually doesn't help much.

You would have to see a player that can generate enough offense to crack that level of defense wide open, while minimizing the counterpunch and in such a way that they still have a high percentage of makes vs misses. That's hard to do on slow court. It's hard to hit winners being pinned deep in the baseline with hard rally strokes like those aforementioned players hit. Even if you find such a player that can do it consistently, there are often ways to befuddle and crack their rhythm by changing pace, focusing on their weakness, tiring them out, spins etc.

I just don't see the current breed of baseline tennis going away while court conditions (balls, court speed etc) stay the same, it just requires too much perfection.
 

Federberg

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^I have to agree with that. That's why I mentioned looking at how technology evolves, and changes to speed whether via balls or courts, before we can determine what new style can prevail
 

Federberg

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I'm afraid you might be right Murat, but then again the new style if it emerges will probably have to be so different from what we see today. You never know, it might be a Santoro-like style but with real athleticism :)
 

shawnbm

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I understand what Haelfix says and think it dovetails into my thoughts on this--the next dominant style could be the big athletic guy that chooses tennis over basketball or football and serves like a Sampras but bigger, followed up by quality net play. I think Safin could hang with anyone in today's game from the baseline and he was quick. Imagine a bigger service and more attacking style by a guy even bigger than he? That prototype for the future could dominate the game for a while.
 

mrzz

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Let me take a step back... aren't we assuming that the current dominant style is a specific one based mostly on Nadal and Djokovic? Ok, these players indeed dominated the last few years, but can we assume that it was because of the style itself, or their absurd talent to impose this given style? Take those two out of the equation... which style is the dominant one? I would guess none...
 

GameSetAndMath

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It is definitely the case that the difference between different surfaces has become less over the years. This homogenization prevents multiple styles from thriving simultaneously.
 

Carol

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Will be this the future of this sport? sad.....

http://youtu.be/btbohlRp_lo