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As we all know, the elite inner circle of men's tennis has been pretty consistent--even boringly so--for the last few years, with Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Novak Djokovic trading places at the top, and Andy Murray hanging around on the periphery, with a more central role over the last year or so. The second tier, or "near-elite", has been more changeable, but still relatively consistent - with Tsonga, Ferrer, and Berdych there for a few years now, and del Potro again in the mix, possibly the most talented of the group. Both tiers have been pretty consistent and static, at least since the fading away of players like Andy Roddick, David Nalbandian, Robin Soderling, etc.
So far there are no true candidates, whether in the second tier or beyond, that threaten to break into the inner circle elite. That said, it seems that this year there are a group of players who are challenging for a higher spot - and even a place in the top 10 eventually. That is, while no one seems to be breaking into the elite, there are a few players who could end up challenging for a place in the top 10 and thus near-elite of the game. Let's take a look:
Richard Gasquet - I personally think that Gasquet has peaked, that he won't reach the top 8 barring an injury to one of the top 8. But he's become very consistent - he's made it to the 4R at each of the last five Slams, and six of the last eight. I don't see him ever making it past the SF, but he's a candidate to upset someone in the QF, or even a dark horse to win an ATP 1000 - perhaps the revolving door that is Paris.
Stanislas Wawrinka - He's actually #6 in the Race to London rankings and playing some of the best tennis of his life. Can he maintain? I don't know but I could see him hanging out with Gasquet and Tipsarevic for a bit.
Milos Raonic - Milos seems to be stagnating a bit, but is holding steady around #15. While he has established himself as a true top 20 player, he's yet to have that big breakthrough into the near-elite which probably has to come through beating a top 10 player in a Slam. He's made it to the 4R in each of the last two Slams, but has yet to make it beyond the QF of an ATP 1000. I think he's a good bet to make it at least to a QF in one of the next three Slams, maybe as far as a SF. I don't think he quite has what it takes to beat Djokovic or Nadal in a Final, though.
Jerzy Janowicz - This kid is great. I personally like his game better than Raonic's - he's much quicker, with more weapons. In a way if we call Dimitrov Baby Federer than Jerzy could be Baby Djokovic. think he's a top 10 player, maybe even top 5 someday, once the Big Four start fading. I wouldn't be surprised to see him beat a top 10 player or two at a Slam this year and sneak into a QF or SF. To go beyond that he'd have to grow up a bit, though.
Grigor Dimitrov - We've seen a significant step up for Grigor this year. Like Raonic and Janowicz, I think he's a top 10 player in the making and should be in the mix for Slams once the Big Four start to fade in a couple years and before the next great player(s) emerges. More and more we're going to see these three challenge, and eventually beat, the near-elite players. I'm not sure if Grigor is ready to beat a Ferrer or Tsonga at a Slam, but I could see him beating a Gaquet, Tipsarevic, or Berdych.
Jeremy Chardy, Benoit Paire, Fabio Fognini, Sam Querrey, Ernests Gulbis - I put these five in a similar category in that I think they're all borderline top 20 talents who we're going to be seeing more of in the next few years. None will make the top 10, in my opinion, but they'll be dipping in and out of the top 20 at points.
Ernests Gulbis, you ask? I think he's capable of hanging around the top 20-30 for a few years. He might not have the consistency to break into the top 10, but he seems about as talented as players like Gasquet and Cilic, so if they can do what they've been doing, why not Gulbis?
Honorable Mention: Kei Nishikori. I have a hard time seeing him get any better than he is now - a true top 20 player.
So far there are no true candidates, whether in the second tier or beyond, that threaten to break into the inner circle elite. That said, it seems that this year there are a group of players who are challenging for a higher spot - and even a place in the top 10 eventually. That is, while no one seems to be breaking into the elite, there are a few players who could end up challenging for a place in the top 10 and thus near-elite of the game. Let's take a look:
Richard Gasquet - I personally think that Gasquet has peaked, that he won't reach the top 8 barring an injury to one of the top 8. But he's become very consistent - he's made it to the 4R at each of the last five Slams, and six of the last eight. I don't see him ever making it past the SF, but he's a candidate to upset someone in the QF, or even a dark horse to win an ATP 1000 - perhaps the revolving door that is Paris.
Stanislas Wawrinka - He's actually #6 in the Race to London rankings and playing some of the best tennis of his life. Can he maintain? I don't know but I could see him hanging out with Gasquet and Tipsarevic for a bit.
Milos Raonic - Milos seems to be stagnating a bit, but is holding steady around #15. While he has established himself as a true top 20 player, he's yet to have that big breakthrough into the near-elite which probably has to come through beating a top 10 player in a Slam. He's made it to the 4R in each of the last two Slams, but has yet to make it beyond the QF of an ATP 1000. I think he's a good bet to make it at least to a QF in one of the next three Slams, maybe as far as a SF. I don't think he quite has what it takes to beat Djokovic or Nadal in a Final, though.
Jerzy Janowicz - This kid is great. I personally like his game better than Raonic's - he's much quicker, with more weapons. In a way if we call Dimitrov Baby Federer than Jerzy could be Baby Djokovic. think he's a top 10 player, maybe even top 5 someday, once the Big Four start fading. I wouldn't be surprised to see him beat a top 10 player or two at a Slam this year and sneak into a QF or SF. To go beyond that he'd have to grow up a bit, though.
Grigor Dimitrov - We've seen a significant step up for Grigor this year. Like Raonic and Janowicz, I think he's a top 10 player in the making and should be in the mix for Slams once the Big Four start to fade in a couple years and before the next great player(s) emerges. More and more we're going to see these three challenge, and eventually beat, the near-elite players. I'm not sure if Grigor is ready to beat a Ferrer or Tsonga at a Slam, but I could see him beating a Gaquet, Tipsarevic, or Berdych.
Jeremy Chardy, Benoit Paire, Fabio Fognini, Sam Querrey, Ernests Gulbis - I put these five in a similar category in that I think they're all borderline top 20 talents who we're going to be seeing more of in the next few years. None will make the top 10, in my opinion, but they'll be dipping in and out of the top 20 at points.
Ernests Gulbis, you ask? I think he's capable of hanging around the top 20-30 for a few years. He might not have the consistency to break into the top 10, but he seems about as talented as players like Gasquet and Cilic, so if they can do what they've been doing, why not Gulbis?
Honorable Mention: Kei Nishikori. I have a hard time seeing him get any better than he is now - a true top 20 player.
