The Rise of the Canucks! Raonic, Shapo, and FAA

[Carlg]

Hi all! I'm a big fan of Canadian Tennis and right now we seem to be in a golden era for the sport here! I've been following Raonic since he broke onto the scene and just this past year Denis Shapovalov and Felix Auger Aliasimme have jumped on my radar as both are the best players in their age group(FAA is 15 and born in 2000, Shapo is 17 and born in 1999).

Seeing the growth of Raonic this year and the rise of these two young guys I wanted to make a thread to track their progress. Especially in light of reading El Dude's articles on "greats" I am curious to see if the young guys can get on that track. His first target is making the top 100 by age 19 which is not that far away for Shapo.

I also want to predict/hope for certain results for each guy this year. I also want to see how these guys compare against other young stars in their age group as they go.

For the rest of this year this is what I hope to see from each guy:

Raonic:

reach a new career ranking of #3 in the world and win at least 1 match at the world tour finals to finally give himself some "free" points for the next year.

Raonic is currently #3 in the singles race and has a decent buffer above the guys below him(900 pts). Considering the injury woes of the players most likely to catch him I think if he can avoid injury himself he has a good chance to hold on to the #3 spot. He has recently broke through with his first slam final and I am excited to see where he goes from here!

Shapo:

move into the top 250 by the end of the year.

Shapo has been on a tear this year, winning three futures titles, and recently winning the juniors wimby tune up and then the wimbledon junior titles. His confidence has to be sky high. He will be in his first main tour even this next week(500 level washington), followed by a challenger event a couple weeks later in Canada. He's not really dropping any points for the rest of this year and with his play as of late and these opportunities I think he can reach these goals. It is clear he is too good for juniors, and seems to be at the top of the futures level so I am excited to see how he can do at the challenger level and up!

FAA:

stay in the top 600 by the end of the year.

FAA has had some good results this year but seems to be learning how to win in tight situations, coming close but ultimately falling in his most recent tests. But for a 15yr old to be in these situations already is amazing! He is dropping 23 points(his total is 48) in a couple of weeks and so for him to simply maintain his current ranking will be great for him. I am curious to see how he does as he is playing in more and more futures and challenger tournaments. I would love to see him break through with a futures title by the end of the year.

I'll make sure to update this thread as these guys post significant results.

 

[herios]

I am a little concerned for Felix. I read on another thread he is having tachycardia. I hope it is not true.

 

[El Dude]

Yeah, it isn't good news, herios. He is absurdly talented but tachycardia would probably greatly limit, even end, his career. Hopefully it is manageable.

Shapo is also very promising, although perhaps a bit less so.

 

[Carlg]

I am a little concerned for Felix. I read on another thread he is having tachycardia. I hope it is not true.

I Just looked up an article put out around RG and FAA said he wasn't too concerned about it but that will be an interesting thing to follow to see if it comes out as more serious than he thinks.

 

[Carlg]

I'm also really looking forward to Shapo playing in Washington! There's a lack of highlight footage of these young guys so it's hard to get a good feel for how good they can be! The more big tournaments they play in the more we will see what they can be!

 

[herios]

The only thing I do not want to see from Shapo and FAA is they would pull a "Peliwo" on us.

 

[Carlg]

The only thing I do not want to see from Shapo and FAA is they would pull a "Peliwo" on us.

Amen to that! Although, looking at Peliwo's accomplishments it is encouraging to see a difference already!

If my math is right, Peliwo didn't win his junior titles until he was 18.5 whereas Shapo won just turn 17 a couple months ago. Peliwo made his first junior final right around when he turned 18 whereas FAA made his while still 15! I think juniors works by birth year instead of age, and being that Peliwo's birthday was in January he could be quite a bit older than the juniors he was playing against which makes his early success more questionable than Shapo.

Also, Shapo has 3 Futures wins and a challenger semi-finals already whereas peliwo didn't make his first challenger semi-final until after he turned 18. Peliwo didn't win his first Futures until he was almost 20 and he did it by a walkover.

Anything can happen though but just thought I would post this info.

Also Peliwo only ever won 2 ATP main tour matches both when he was 19. So if Shapo can win a match this week or at Rogers cup he will already be well ahead of Peliwo.

Looking forward to their progress!

PS- Shapo and FAA look to have a lot of opportunities to play in North American Challenger events(a couple in Canada) coming up here as well so it will be an exciting time to watch how they do in these more comfortable confines!

For Shapo he is scheduled for Washington this week, followed by Rogers Cup next week, then the Granby Challenger the week after that! If breaks through at one of these look at him to continue his rise in short order here! He plays Lacko tomorrow(ranked 98) so that'll be a good opportunity to notch his 2nd(?) top 100 win. He would play Sock if he wins there, which would be a good match for us to see where he is at compared to a player we are all more familiar with. Can't wait!

I'm not sure on FAA's schedule except that he is scheduled at that same Granby Challenger. He is defending 23 points there though(SF?) so it'll be interesting to see if he can hold onto those points!

 

[isabelle]

Raonic has a reasonable chance to win Toronto this year, if he really plays of course

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Shapo gets wild card in Toronto. Pops got direct entry due to multiple withdrawals.

 

[Carlg]

Well Shapo makes a big jump up due to his win over Nick. He is now ranked 291 and 221 in the race! With some challenger events coming in Canada I look for him to continue the climb is top 150 too much to ask?

FAA is playing well, just falling a bit short losing his last couple of matches. Curious how he does in the Canadian challengers coming up.

Milos lost early in the Canada Masters unfortunately, his lead in the race to hold down 3rd is down to only 500 points ahead of Nish.

Should be an interesting couple of weeks before the US open for tennis Canada!

 

[herios]

FAA lost his opener in the challenger at Grimby to Sekou (USA) ranked 276.

 

[Carlg]

With two challenger tournaments in the books it is time for an update!

FAA lost in the first round of both, but did manage to win a qualifying match to gain some points. He is currently ranked 731.

Shapo on the other hand has continued his impressive play making the quarter finals in the first challenger and the semi finals in this last one! He is currently ranked 250 and is up to around 190 in the singles race! Shapo continues to make great strides and with all this success I am curious how long it takes for him to break into the top 100!

Raonic plays again this week in Cincy with a golden opportunity to create more distance between himdelf and Nish in the Singles race for 3rd. Nish is slated to meet Andy in the quarters while Raonic would only face Andy in the Semis. Also with so many key players out of this one, this could be a golden opportunity for Milos to win his first 1000 tourney! If he can get past a tired Murray I like his chances!

 

[herios]

An update on Felix Auger-Aliassime has made the final in both singles and doubles of the boys event at the USO.
I doubles he plays with another Canadian, Benjamin Sigoin.
Shapovalov elected not to play the event, going forward he will focus on the ATP challenger tour.

 

[El Dude]

Didn't notice this when I bumped the Young Guns thread. FAA looks like the real deal--maybe the highest upside player on the radar, at least in terms of performance level relative to age.

Going forward, I'd like to see Shapo get close to the top 100 next year, or at least be on the cusp in the 100-150 range, which is usually where a player gets to once they win a Challenger or two but haven't broken through Slam Qualifications yet.

As far as FAA, I'm wondering if he continues on the Juniors tour next year or if he starts focusing on the Futures. If he remains a junior, I could see utter dominance. My guess is that he gradually transitions over the next year or so.

Rising up the ranks is really one step at a time. If Shapo can reach the top 100 by the end of 2017, that will be a great sign. If he doesn't, that's OK too--he has until April 15, 2018 to make the first benchmark on the "Pace of Greatness," which is the top 100 before his 19th birthday. FAA has all the time in the world and the main thing with him is his health, with his heart condition.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

FAA lost the doubles finals. SIngles finals is tomorrow.

 

[Carlg]

Well it's the end of the season so I thought I would write a post!

Raonic:

Raonic met my hopes for him by finishing world number 3 as well as winning at least 1 match in the WTF. On top of this I think he really has separated himself as "the best of the rest".

I plan to update expectations in March and then again after Wimbledon but for now my hopes for him for next year are:

- finish within 2000pts of #1
- make a slam final and 2 semis
- win a masters tournament
- break through and beat both Murray and Djokovic in big matches(semis or finals)

His starting off the year as #3 will really help him only face the big 2 in big matches which will help him pad stats but also gain more experience in high leverage situations against the best. It's clear to me that on a good day he can hang with both, but yet needs to develop the mental toughness/experience to find success in the big moments.

Shapo:

Shapo met my expectations of finishing within the top 250, currently ranked 249. The incredible part is that he met this goal while ending the season injured and missing out on a ton of potential points!

My hope for him for the next year is to make it into the top 100 and to win at least 1 challenger tournament and 5+ atp matches.

FAA:

I think Felix hit my hope for him to stay in the top 600(he is currently sitting at 601 with 2 points yet to be added in) and also did manage to win his first Futures title.

My hope for Felix for next year is to make the top 200 if he focuses solely on the professional tour, or top 250 if he ends up playing some juniors. I also expect him to win multiple futures titles as well as win 5+ challenger level matches.

New:

Ben Sigouin

hope for him to end the year in the top 600

 

[El Dude]

I'm including conversation of Shapovalov and Aliassime in my next blog article, which is a review of the "young guns" and a discussion of their outlook next year.

I think all of those goals are possible for next year, but don't be disappointed if Shapovalov doesn't quite make the top 100, or Aliassime the top 200. Both are certainly possible, but they're both young enough that they don't "need" to meet those benchmarks to remain on the path towards elite status.

And I don't think Aliassime will focus solely on the pro tour. He just turned 16 a few months ago, so is likely to do another year of Junior Slams. But I do think he'll play more Futures and some Challengers, so it might be a mix.

 

[Carlg]

I'm including conversation of Shapovalov and Aliassime in my next blog article, which is a review of the "young guns" and a discussion of their outlook next year.

I think all of those goals are possible for next year, but don't be disappointed if Shapovalov doesn't quite make the top 100, or Aliassime the top 200. Both are certainly possible, but they're both young enough that they don't "need" to meet those benchmarks to remain on the path towards elite status.

And I don't think Aliassime will focus solely on the pro tour. He just turned 16 a few months ago, so is likely to do another year of Junior Slams. But I do think he'll play more Futures and some Challengers, so it might be a mix.

Looking forward to that article! Yeah, I like to put my hopes/goals for players on the high end of realistic! Assuming health, I would be shocked if Shapo didn't finish top 125 at minimum and FAA top 300....even 250 seems fairly conservative if he plays just the junior slams, but we will see!

I'm looking forward to updating this in March once we get to see some results...easier to forecast that way I think when you see how players actually perform a bit in the new season!

 

[Carlg]

Well, we are through March and so it is time for an update!

Milos:

2017 has been injury riddled for Milos! And the last couple times he's come back he's had to withdraw due to injury shortly after.

Let's look at my goals set for him and how he is doing:

1) finish within 2000pts of #1.

So when I made this goal/prediction I was thinking of Andy and Novak who have had equally disappointing seasons thus far. In the Race rankings Milos is ahead of Novak and only behind Andy by 195 pts. So in this regard the prediction would be looking not bad. However Roger has been crushing it this year, and if he wins Miami will already be over 4000pts for the year! If Roger can stay healthy he could be very difficult to catch! But at 35 and having missed big chunks of time in the last couple years we will see how he holds up. Unfortunately Milos went down again recently so we will see how his health is this year. This season has been so crazy though that ill have to wait until after wimbledon to see how this prediction holds. I have a feeling it will turn out to be too optimistic and a more reasonable goal would be to end the year as the atp #4 player in the world.

2) 2 semis and a final.

with him missing the australian open semis this is all but broke as I don't see him making semis at rolland garros.

3) masters title.

still will stick with this...hasn't been healthy for a masters yet.

4) break through and beat novak and andy in big matches.

still will stick with this as Andy and Novak's play has been off and injury plagued as well.

Overall Milos is underperforming/injury plagued this season. Hopefully we see more health so we can evaluate his play better.

Shapo

After a slow start Shapo has caught fire! He has already won 1 challenger tournament and made the final in another. In the live race rankings Shapo is also sitting at 94 thus keeping on pace for him to finish the year in the top 100. Still no main tour wins this year but the way he has been playing I am sure those will come.

At this point Shapo is definitely matching my predictions of him. I could see my expectations rising even more depending on how he does in the us challengers coming up in April/May. This early success has given his rankings a boost which will help make his journey easier as he no longer has to worry about going through qualifiers in challengers and will also get seeded in some of them as well. Looking forward to reevaluating him after wimbledon. Would love to see him in Milan at the end of the year.

FAA

Felix has also exceeded expectations this year. He's won a futures title, made the final in another. And made a Challenger Semis (thus winning 3 challenger matches already). In the live race he is currently 160 -safely inside my top 200 prediction already. My expectations of him might rise as well! I'm curious to see where he goes from here!

Ben

No real results thus far he justs needs a couple breakthrough results to meet my hopes for him.

I'll check back after wimbledon to see how these predictions are going and by then we will have a great idea of how their years will turn out!

With Milos' slow start it's been fun to have such good results from the next gen!

 

[kskate2]

Thanks for the update Carl. Hoping everyone is healthy for the clay and grass court seasons.