The Race to London is getting interesting

[El Dude]

Novak, Roger, Rafa, and Stan have already qualified - so that is half the slots accounted for. If Kei wins the US Open he's going to be pretty darn close, as would Marin Cilic. But right now, before the US Open Final, you have a group of seven men clustered around for four spots:

4000 Cilic
3675 Nishikori
3535 Ferrer
3510 Berdych
3425 Raonic
3335 Dimitrov
3155 Murray

And that's not counting a resurgent Tsonga (2555) or Gulbis (2400). After that there are no real candidates (Bautista Agut is next with 1830 and has very little chance of catching the pack).

So what do you think? Of the 7-9 contenders, which 4 do you think will play at the World Tour Finals? Will Nishikori's and Cilic's play continue? Will Tsonga continue to rise?

Gulbis is the easy player to eliminate - he's 1000 points behind #8. Tsonga will also probably miss the cut, as he's 835 points behind - that's a lot to catch up with only two Masters and four ATP 500s left. Of the remaining seven, I think Dimitrov is fading, or will fade and just miss the cut. Of the others, who knows. I think Raonic is hungry, and Nishikori has a nice edge and is almost a lock if he wins tomorrow; if Cilic wins, both are in a good position. Who knows with Andy. Imagine a WTF without stalwarts Andy, Ferrer, Berdych, and Tsonga. Del Potro won't be back, either - so we'll see a lot of new faces this year.

Regardless, it should be fun to watch how it all plays out.

EDITED to include Cilic's win.

 

[herios]

Because there are 6 bigger events left in basically 2 episodes:
1. Asian swing with Beijing, Tokyo and Shanghai the and a few smaller events;
2. European indoor with Valencia, Basel and Paris and again a few smaller

there will be a little more clarity hopefully after episode 1 concludes.
One thing I would mention is, in such a tight race every point will count, so maximizing as much possible on the potential points in the smaller 250 events could be crucial.
Usually Murray did not participate in those small events at the end of the calendar, so I doubt they are in his calendar this year either, he might need to ask for some WC entries because he is trailing now the aspirants.
Remember Gasquet last year won Moscow and that clinched it for him to the detriment of Tsonga who failed to win enough points in Vienna.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

I want Kei, Milos, Grigor and Cilic to make it. But with no points to defend, Murray should get in there.

 

[DarthFed]

That's crazy how tight the race is. Substitute Murray for Milos and Berd for Cilic and I agree with Murat's list

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

That's crazy how tight the race is. Substitute Murray for Milos and Berd for Cilic and I agree with Murat's list

Come on man, that's %50 of the list! And why do you want the Bird there anyways? You dislike him as much as me...

 

[DarthFed]

^ I've always liked Berd, I don't like when Roger faces him though. I guess I could root for an easier matchup for Roger and say Raonic instead of Berd. But please no Cilic.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

^ I've always liked Berd, I don't like when Roger faces him though. I guess I could root for an easier matchup for Roger and say Raonic instead of Berd. But please no Cilic.

Getting warmer...
But if Cilic keeps up the form, he can definitely sneak in there. He is playing solid tennis, in every way.

 

[DarthFed]

He probably will get in but I don't want that guy in the YEC, definitely don't want him winning a slam.

 

[Riotbeard]

I think Kei is a lock. He has performed very well in asia in the past and in the indoor stretch. Other than it's tough. This Berdie's time of year also, and Andy has had good results in fall before. If Cillic does not win tomorrow, I would guess: Kei, Berdie, Raonic, and Andy with 1st alternate being grigor.

 

[Moxie]

I think Kei is a lock. He has performed very well in asia in the past and in the indoor stretch. Other than it's tough. This Berdie's time of year also, and Andy has had good results in fall before. If Cillic does not win tomorrow, I would guess: Kei, Berdie, Raonic, and Andy with 1st alternate being grigor.

I'd go with this, mostly. I don't care between Berdy and Cilic. (If Cilic knowingly cheated, I doubt he is now, and so you do get to try again, I'd say.) I'd like to see Grigor in the mix, and for him, I'd throw Raonic under the bus. Don't know how that works mathematically, though. But Murray, with nothing to defend should get in there, and I'd like to see him. I want to see him getting back to his best level.

 

[DarthFed]

I think Kei is a lock. He has performed very well in asia in the past and in the indoor stretch. Other than it's tough. This Berdie's time of year also, and Andy has had good results in fall before. If Cillic does not win tomorrow, I would guess: Kei, Berdie, Raonic, and Andy with 1st alternate being grigor.

I'd go with this, mostly. I don't care between Berdy and Cilic. (If Cilic knowingly cheated, I doubt he is now, and so you do get to try again, I'd say.) I'd like to see Grigor in the mix, and for him, I'd throw Raonic under the bus. Don't know how that works mathematically, though. But Murray, with nothing to defend should get in there, and I'd like to see him. I want to see him getting back to his best level.

If Cilic knowingly cheated he shouldn't even be playing right now. You are a little forgiving I'd say :angel:

 

[Sundaymorningguy]

Well whoever wins the Open tomorrow aren't they also a lock as a slam winner?

 

[herios]

I want Kei, Milos, Grigor and Cilic to make it. But with no points to defend, Murray should get in there.

OK, for you and Moxie I will explain once again nothing to defend is meaningless in the WTF race because here nobody is defending anything, everyone is earning points.
Murray trails in this race as well, less than in the ranking race where defending does matter.
His advantage by nothing to defend will just allow him to narrow the gap in the ranking, but in the WTF race he still needs to outperform some of the guys ahead of him.

 

[herios]

I think Kei is a lock. He has performed very well in asia in the past and in the indoor stretch. Other than it's tough. This Berdie's time of year also, and Andy has had good results in fall before. If Cillic does not win tomorrow, I would guess: Kei, Berdie, Raonic, and Andy with 1st alternate being grigor.

I'd go with this, mostly. I don't care between Berdy and Cilic. (If Cilic knowingly cheated, I doubt he is now, and so you do get to try again, I'd say.) I'd like to see Grigor in the mix, and for him, I'd throw Raonic under the bus. Don't know how that works mathematically, though. But Murray, with nothing to defend should get in there, and I'd like to see him. I want to see him getting back to his best level.

If Cilic knowingly cheated he shouldn't even be playing right now. You are a little forgiving I'd say :angel:

And you sound like someone representing the medieval inquisition. In every sport after a positive testing, there is a ban period, followed by a second chance. So let's stop the witch hunting because is pointless. He played several months now, trust me that he is tested these days, no question about that.

 

[DarthFed]

^ And the ban is supposed to be two years...

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

I want Kei, Milos, Grigor and Cilic to make it. But with no points to defend, Murray should get in there.

OK, for you and Moxie I will explain once again nothing to defend is meaningless in the WTF race because here nobody is defending anything, everyone is earning points.
Murray trails in this race as well, less than in the ranking race where defending does matter.
His advantage by nothing to defend will just allow him to narrow the gap in the ranking, but in the WTF race he still needs to outperform some of the guys ahead of him.

I am aware of the concept brother, just felt the need to mention he was not even playing this time last year.

 

[herios]

I want Kei, Milos, Grigor and Cilic to make it. But with no points to defend, Murray should get in there.

OK, for you and Moxie I will explain once again nothing to defend is meaningless in the WTF race because here nobody is defending anything, everyone is earning points.
Murray trails in this race as well, less than in the ranking race where defending does matter.
His advantage by nothing to defend will just allow him to narrow the gap in the ranking, but in the WTF race he still needs to outperform some of the guys ahead of him.

I am aware of the concept brother, just felt the need to mention he was not even playing this time last year.

Fact which is...meaningless:laydownlaughing

 

[herios]

For me it will be a tussle between the old guard: Ferrer, Berdych and Murray vs the new wave Nishi, Raonic, Dimi and Cilic, who none of them have been there before.
As there are 4 spots left, one new player at the minimum will make it, and that will be the winner tonight.
For the other 3, stay tuned.

PS I also would prefer as many new faces as possible, because that means the top 10 will be refreshed for the new year.

 

[El Dude]

As a Dimitrov fan, I actually hope he misses the cut this year. Why? Because I think he needs the push. His main flaw as a player is his lackadaisical mentality. He's improved upon it, but still seems prone to let up on the gas too soon (not unlike the older version of Federer, actually).

Missing the WTF might give Dimitrov the push he needs for 2015, when I hope that he wins his first Slam.

 

[Kieran]

As a Dimitrov fan, I actually hope he misses the cut this year. Why? Because I think he needs the push. His main flaw as a player is his lackadaisical mentality. He's improved upon it, but still seems prone to let up on the gas too soon (not unlike the older version of Federer, actually).

Missing the WTF might give Dimitrov the push he needs for 2015, when I hope that he wins his first Slam.

Yeah, this guy has made me mad.

Losing in straights against Monfils is something of a disaster, in terms of his progress. We often hear of "matches he should be winning by now", well, er - that's one right there!

I wasn't over impressed with how he ducked out of Wimbledon, either. I agree with you, Dude - he needs a fright. He needs to learn, it doesn't come to you, you've got to go and get it...