The Race for #1

[El Dude]

Rafa's recent play puts the #1 ranking more up for grabs this summer. Let's take a look.

Current points (after Barcelona)
12900 Nadal
11040 Djokovic

That's a diminishing lead for Nadal, now at 1860.

Now let's look ahead at points to defend. Here are the remaining Slams, Masters, ATP 500, and WTF.

Nadal: 1000, 1000, 2000 / 10, 1000, 1000, 2000 / 300, 360, 360, 1000
Djokovic: 10, 180, 1200 / 300, 1200, 360, 180 360 / 500, 1000, 1000, 1500

You'll note the slah (/) signs between sections, which is me grouping the tournaments into May/Clay, Summer, and then the Fall, so you get:

May/Clay:
Nadal - 4000
Djokovic - 1390

Summer:
Nadal - 4010
Djokovic - 2400

Fall:
Nadal - 2020
Djokovic - 4000

So as you can see, Rafa has about 2600 points more to defend than Djokovic in the next six weeks or so and could lose his #1 ranking as early as June, although it would require continued sub-par play on his part and dominance by Djokovic. If Novak doesn't wrestle #1 from him by June, he'll have another chance on the US leg of the tour. After that, though, it is Novak that has more points to defend.

So look for the race to tighten up in May. Even if Rafa wins both Madrid and Rome and defends his 2000 points, Novak can close the 1860 point gap somewhat simply by doing better than his relatively poor results last year (2R, QF). In other words, if he loses in the SF at both tournaments this year the gap going into Roland Garros goes down to about 1300. If he makes it to the F at one of the tournaments, its around 1040; at both, its almost down to 800, which would leave him in striking distance of #1 if he wins the French Open.

Of course that all assumes Rafa wins Madrid and Rome which is far from a foregone conclusion, especially Madrid. If Rafa goes out early at one, or loses earlier at both and Novak does well, then Roland Garros could determine the #1 ranking.

Should be exciting!

 

[El Dude]

It should also be noted that by going out in the QF at Barcelona, Rafa slips to #4 in the Race to London rankings:

1. 3535 Wawrinka
2. 3050 Djokovic
3. 2920 Federer
4. 2870 Nadal
5. 2135 Berdych
6. 1440 Ferrer
7. 1205 Nishikori
8. 1195 Dimitrov
9. 1175 Dolgopolov
10. 1150 Fognini

Obviously it's still early in the season, but those are some surprising names at 7-10. Usual suspects like Andy Murray (#12), Tsonga (#15), and Gasquet (#22) have some ground to make up.

 

[herios]

It should also be noted that by going out in the QF at Barcelona, Rafa slips to #4 in the Race to London rankings:

1. 3535 Wawrinka
2. 3050 Djokovic
3. 2920 Federer
4. 2870 Nadal
.

Actually Rafa slipped to #4 a week ago after MC, this week he just failed to capitalize on points he usually was betting on, as he has not lost in Barca since 2004.

 

[DarthFed]

Rafa's recent play puts the #1 ranking more up for grabs this summer. Let's take a look.

Current points (after Barcelona)
12900 Nadal
11040 Djokovic

That's a diminishing lead for Nadal, now at 1860.

Now let's look ahead at points to defend. Here are the remaining Slams, Masters, ATP 500, and WTF.

Nadal: 1000, 1000, 2000 / 10, 1000, 1000, 2000 / 300, 360, 360, 1000
Djokovic: 10, 180, 1200 / 300, 1200, 360, 180 360 / 500, 1000, 1000, 1500

You'll note the slah (/) signs between sections, which is me grouping the tournaments into May/Clay, Summer, and then the Fall, so you get:

May/Clay:
Nadal - 4000
Djokovic - 1390

Summer:
Nadal - 4010
Djokovic - 2400

Fall:
Nadal - 2020
Djokovic - 4000

So as you can see, Rafa has about 2600 points more to defend than Djokovic in the next six weeks or so and could lose his #1 ranking as early as June, although it would require continued sub-par play on his part and dominance by Djokovic. If Novak doesn't wrestle #1 from him by June, he'll have another chance on the US leg of the tour. After that, though, it is Novak that has more points to defend.

So look for the race to tighten up in May. Even if Rafa wins both Madrid and Rome and defends his 2000 points, Novak can close the 1860 point gap somewhat simply by doing better than his relatively poor results last year (2R, QF). In other words, if he loses in the SF at both tournaments this year the gap going into Roland Garros goes down to about 1300. If he makes it to the F at one of the tournaments, its around 1040; at both, its almost down to 800, which would leave him in striking distance of #1 if he wins the French Open.

Of course that all assumes Rafa wins Madrid and Rome which is far from a foregone conclusion, especially Madrid. If Rafa goes out early at one, or loses earlier at both and Novak does well, then Roland Garros could determine the #1 ranking.


Should be exciting!

Your numbers are a bit off. Nole lost in RG semis so he has 720 there, not 1200. I also don't know where the 300 is coming from right after RG as Nole didn't play any grass warm up. And then it appears you are giving Nole 360 at last year's USO when it would be 1200

 

[Federberg]

I'll laugh my head off if Roger ends the year as number 1! On the plus side for him.. and Rafa.. lots of points to gain at SW19.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

It should also be noted that by going out in the QF at Barcelona, Rafa slips to #4 in the Race to London rankings:

1. 3535 Wawrinka
2. 3050 Djokovic
3. 2920 Federer
4. 2870 Nadal
5. 2135 Berdych
6. 1440 Ferrer
7. 1205 Nishikori
8. 1195 Dimitrov
9. 1175 Dolgopolov
10. 1150 Fognini

Obviously it's still early in the season, but those are some surprising names at 7-10. Usual suspects like Andy Murray (#12), Tsonga (#15), and Gasquet (#22) have some ground to make up.

Roger overtook Rafa in Race rankings before Barcelona started. See WTF thread.

 

[Fiero425]

It should also be noted that by going out in the QF at Barcelona, Rafa slips to #4 in the Race to London rankings:

1. 3535 Wawrinka
2. 3050 Djokovic
3. 2920 Federer
4. 2870 Nadal
.

Actually Rafa slipped to #4 a week ago after MC, this week he just failed to capitalize on points he usually was betting on, as he has not lost in Barca since 2004.

Poor Rafa has the same problem Nole had after a great 2011 and '12; so many points to defend, it's impossible! He can only hope Nole's game falls off and he doesn't defend his lower point total which isn't likely!

 

[Federberg]

It just accentuates how incredible Rogers run was to be able to comfortably defend points consistently for so long

 

[Fiero425]

It just accentuates how incredible Rogers run was to be able to comfortably defend points consistently for so long

Well it helped to win 3 majors several times in a year! lol! He accomplished so much in just a short period of time! No matter if Rafa overtakes his total of 17, I'd still put Roger ahead of him due to his major runs at Wimbledon and the USO while Rafa just had his one at the FO! He also survived without serious injury so he wasn't missing for months at a time!

 

[herios]

I'll laugh my head off if Roger ends the year as number 1! On the plus side for him.. and Rafa.. lots of points to gain at SW19.

And what will you do if Wawrinka finishes the year at #1?

 

[Federberg]

^I'll be rolling round the floor with laughter. Honestly? I would be delighted. Bring on the change... but with a player that I like dominating!

 

[Fiero425]

I'll laugh my head off if Roger ends the year as number 1! On the plus side for him.. and Rafa.. lots of points to gain at SW19.

And what will you do if Wawrinka finishes the year at #1?

I'd have more respect for the tour and other players if the top spot is someone other than Roger, Nole, or Rafa! Murray was never in the conversation IMO and DelPo can't stay on court long enough to matter! If you've read my rants on how disappointed I've been in these gutless wonders; bout time some have started upsetting the elite of late! Rafa in particular has not been playing well and it's finally caught up with him! Who would have thought, back to back clay tourney loses, and Nole had nothing to do with it! Amazing! :clap :lolz: :snigger :laydownlaughing :angel:

 

[Kieran]

They weren't back to back losses...

 

[Fiero425]

They weren't back to back losses...

Read it again, I said "back to back clay TOURNEY" loses! uzzled :huh: :angel:

 

[Kieran]

They weren't back to back losses...

Read it again, I said "back to back TOURNEY" loses! uzzled :huh: :angel:

You did, buddy, mea culpa!

 

[Fiero425]

They weren't back to back losses...

Read it again, I said "back to back TOURNEY" loses! uzzled :huh: :angel:

You did, buddy, mea culpa!

This should be "chilling" for the Rafa-fanatics! He normally comes into his own during this period of the season! I can't remember him being this vulnerable; even in '11 losing 2 straight clay finals to Nole! :snigger :clap :lolz: :angel:

 

[Kieran]

They weren't back to back losses...

Read it again, I said "back to back TOURNEY" loses! uzzled :huh: :angel:

You did, buddy, mea culpa!

This should be "chilling" for the Rafa-fanatics! He normally comes into his own during this period of the season! I can't remember him being this vulnerable; even in '11 losing 2 straight clay finals to Nole! :snigger :clap :lolz: :angel:

I know there were often cliches about Rafa being like Borg and that he could walk away from the game young, burnt out from the physical demands, like Borg did. I always denied this as being simplistic, but lately he looks so disinterested and lethargic and uninspired, he reminds me of Borg!

I still think he'll find his range and lasso fools into the corner using his whiphand, but that ole whiphand looks so stale recently... :nono

 

[Moxie]

They weren't back to back losses...

Read it again, I said "back to back TOURNEY" loses! uzzled :huh: :angel:

You did, buddy, mea culpa!

This should be "chilling" for the Rafa-fanatics! He normally comes into his own during this period of the season! I can't remember him being this vulnerable; even in '11 losing 2 straight clay finals to Nole! :snigger :clap :lolz: :angel:

I know there were often cliches about Rafa being like Borg and that he could walk away from the game young, burnt out from the physical demands, like Borg did. I always denied this as being simplistic, but lately he looks so disinterested and lethargic and uninspired, he reminds me of Borg!

I still think he'll find his range and lasso fools into the corner using his whiphand, but that ole whiphand looks so stale recently... :nono

And rather inexplicably. Still, it's hard to believe that the guy who won nearly everything last year is prepared to just cave. A fan holds his/her nerve, and I hope Rafa will, too.

 

[Fiero425]

Read it again, I said "back to back TOURNEY" loses! uzzled :huh: :angel:

You did, buddy, mea culpa!

This should be "chilling" for the Rafa-fanatics! He normally comes into his own during this period of the season! I can't remember him being this vulnerable; even in '11 losing 2 straight clay finals to Nole! :snigger :clap :lolz: :angel:

I know there were often cliches about Rafa being like Borg and that he could walk away from the game young, burnt out from the physical demands, like Borg did. I always denied this as being simplistic, but lately he looks so disinterested and lethargic and uninspired, he reminds me of Borg!

I still think he'll find his range and lasso fools into the corner using his whiphand, but that ole whiphand looks so stale recently... :nono

And rather inexplicably. Still, it's hard to believe that the guy who won nearly everything last year is prepared to just cave. A fan holds his/her nerve, and I hope Rafa will, too.

I always thought he would crack long before 30! It has little to do with my not appreciating how he plays, but he has to work so hard; even against the most anonymous of players! There's a reason players like Federer, Haas, Robredo, and others are nowhere near as broken down even though they're 5+ years older!

 

[Moxie]

You did, buddy, mea culpa!

This should be "chilling" for the Rafa-fanatics! He normally comes into his own during this period of the season! I can't remember him being this vulnerable; even in '11 losing 2 straight clay finals to Nole! :snigger :clap :lolz: :angel:

I know there were often cliches about Rafa being like Borg and that he could walk away from the game young, burnt out from the physical demands, like Borg did. I always denied this as being simplistic, but lately he looks so disinterested and lethargic and uninspired, he reminds me of Borg!

I still think he'll find his range and lasso fools into the corner using his whiphand, but that ole whiphand looks so stale recently... :nono

And rather inexplicably. Still, it's hard to believe that the guy who won nearly everything last year is prepared to just cave. A fan holds his/her nerve, and I hope Rafa will, too.

I always thought he would crack long before 30! It has little to do with my not appreciating how he plays, but he has to work so hard; even against the most anonymous of players! There's a reason players like Federer, Haas, Gasquet, and others are nowhere near as broken down even though they're 5+ years older!

Gasquet is exactly the same age as Rafa, to start. Haas gets free years for the 3 he was off the tour, and for not going as deep for some of the ones he was on it.

You and everyone thought Rafa would crack before 30. But, just to keep it in context, he's lost a few matches that he shouldn't have. It's a bit early to say it's over. The obituaries have been written for Federer, too, way before time. I'd say we all calm down.