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I did an extensive study of player ages, Slams, etc, in order to try to get a sense of who might be the "Next Great Player" (NGP). By NGP I mean an all-time great, which I'll use the criteria of 6+ Slams.
I'll spare you the exhaustive (and exhausting) research--I was going to do a blog on it but it got out of hand and unwieldy, so I thought I'd essentialize it. One of the criteria I came across is that ALL 6+ Slam winners in the Open Era were in the top 100 by age 18, and in the top 10 by age 21. They also all won their first Slam by age 24, most by age 22. So right there we have three criteria for which ALL 6+ Slam winners fulfill, which I think gives us a sense of who might (and might not) be a potential all-time great.
Applying those criteria, the only active player that fits all three is Juan Martin Del Potro (Andy Murray just missed the cut by winning his first Slam at age 25). Born in 1988, he finished 2006 (age 18) No. 92 in the world and 2009 (age 21) no. 5 in the world. He won his first (and only) Slam in 2009, shortly before turning 21. Of course his career was derailed by injury and the chances of him winning 6+ Slams are now virtually none.
Interestingly enough, Donald Young met the first criteria--he finished age 18 at No. 100 in the world--but has missed all the others.
So aside from Del Potro, there are only two players who have met the first criteria--finishing their age 18 season in the top 100: Borna Coric and Alexander Zverev. Coric finished last year at No. 93, this year at No. 45. He is 19 now so if he is to stay on track for all-time greatness, he needs to reach the top 10 by the end of 2017...which certainly seems doable.
Half a year younger, Zverev turned 18 earlier this year and finished No. 83 in the world. He would need to reach the top 10 by 2018.
No other active player born 1997 or earlier (and thus 18 or older) finished their age 18 season in the top 100 AND still has a chance at the second and third criteria. This means that young players like Hyeon Chung, Thanasi Kokkinakis, Jared Donaldson, and even Nick Kyrgios are all disqualified from all-time greatness...if the historical precedent holds.
There is a broader criteria that applies to multi-Slam winners of the Open Era, all of whom finished in the top 100 by the age of 21. For that criteria there still are quite a few players that could fulfill the requirements, including (among players at least 21 years old with 0-1 Slams): Tomas Berdych, Richard Gasquet, Marin Cilic, Kei Nishikori, Milos Raonic, Grigor Dimitrov, Bernard Tomic, Dominic Thiem, Jiri Vesely, and Lucas Pouille. Jack Sock just missed the cut, finishing his age 21 season at No. 102. There are others, but those are the most notable names. There are other players that might have reached the top 100 by age 21 but have floated around (or away), names like Andrey Kuznetsov, Ryan Harrison, Cedric Marcel Stebe (remember him?), etc. This clearly is a very loose criteria.
(Notably absent from the list are David Ferrer and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga).
One final note. I compiled a list of all players from 1984 to 2015 who finished in the top 100 as teenagers. There were 84 players in all (I did include a couple players like Grigor Dimitrov; he finished 2010 at age 19 and #106...it was close enough!). Of the 84, nine were born 1989 or later - so the jury is still out. Of the 75 others, 7 went on to become all-time greats (6+ Slams), and 24 won at least a single Slam. This means that of players who finished in the top 100 as teenagers, approximately one-third end up winning a Slam, and about 10% become all-time greats.
Here are the nine players born 1989 or later who have finished in the top 100 as teenagers, chronologically: Donald Young, Kei Nishikori, Grigor Dimitrov, Bernard Tomic, Ryan Harrison, Nick Kyrgios, Borna Coric, Hyeon Chung, Thanasi Kokkinakis, and Alexander Zverev. If they are true to historical precedents, about three of them will eventually win at least one Slam and maybe one of them will become an all-time great.
If I were to guess, I'd say that Kyrgios, Coric, and Zverev have the best chances at winning a Slam. I still think Nishikori or Dimitrov could do it, and Chung shows some potential, but those first three seem to be the most likely. As for as an all-time great, none stand out. Grigor has the talent, but the ship has sailed for him, I'm afraid. I think his best-case scenario is that he gets his act together and has a late peak in his late 20s, maybe even a Stan Wawrinka-like scenario. But 2015 was a real set-back; he should have been establishing himself as a fixture in the top 10 and a contender for the top 5 and Slams. Oh well.
Beyond this group, there are some players that I'll be watching next year, to see if they can sneak into the top 100. Harry Taylor Fritz and Andrey Rublev just turned 18 within the last month, so even though they won't make the top 100 this year, they have a chance next year and I'm willing to say they deserve the "late season birthday extension." And then we have Frances Tiafoe turning 18 in January, so these three are players I'm looking at for possible future stardom.
I'll spare you the exhaustive (and exhausting) research--I was going to do a blog on it but it got out of hand and unwieldy, so I thought I'd essentialize it. One of the criteria I came across is that ALL 6+ Slam winners in the Open Era were in the top 100 by age 18, and in the top 10 by age 21. They also all won their first Slam by age 24, most by age 22. So right there we have three criteria for which ALL 6+ Slam winners fulfill, which I think gives us a sense of who might (and might not) be a potential all-time great.
Applying those criteria, the only active player that fits all three is Juan Martin Del Potro (Andy Murray just missed the cut by winning his first Slam at age 25). Born in 1988, he finished 2006 (age 18) No. 92 in the world and 2009 (age 21) no. 5 in the world. He won his first (and only) Slam in 2009, shortly before turning 21. Of course his career was derailed by injury and the chances of him winning 6+ Slams are now virtually none.
Interestingly enough, Donald Young met the first criteria--he finished age 18 at No. 100 in the world--but has missed all the others.
So aside from Del Potro, there are only two players who have met the first criteria--finishing their age 18 season in the top 100: Borna Coric and Alexander Zverev. Coric finished last year at No. 93, this year at No. 45. He is 19 now so if he is to stay on track for all-time greatness, he needs to reach the top 10 by the end of 2017...which certainly seems doable.
Half a year younger, Zverev turned 18 earlier this year and finished No. 83 in the world. He would need to reach the top 10 by 2018.
No other active player born 1997 or earlier (and thus 18 or older) finished their age 18 season in the top 100 AND still has a chance at the second and third criteria. This means that young players like Hyeon Chung, Thanasi Kokkinakis, Jared Donaldson, and even Nick Kyrgios are all disqualified from all-time greatness...if the historical precedent holds.
There is a broader criteria that applies to multi-Slam winners of the Open Era, all of whom finished in the top 100 by the age of 21. For that criteria there still are quite a few players that could fulfill the requirements, including (among players at least 21 years old with 0-1 Slams): Tomas Berdych, Richard Gasquet, Marin Cilic, Kei Nishikori, Milos Raonic, Grigor Dimitrov, Bernard Tomic, Dominic Thiem, Jiri Vesely, and Lucas Pouille. Jack Sock just missed the cut, finishing his age 21 season at No. 102. There are others, but those are the most notable names. There are other players that might have reached the top 100 by age 21 but have floated around (or away), names like Andrey Kuznetsov, Ryan Harrison, Cedric Marcel Stebe (remember him?), etc. This clearly is a very loose criteria.
(Notably absent from the list are David Ferrer and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga).
One final note. I compiled a list of all players from 1984 to 2015 who finished in the top 100 as teenagers. There were 84 players in all (I did include a couple players like Grigor Dimitrov; he finished 2010 at age 19 and #106...it was close enough!). Of the 84, nine were born 1989 or later - so the jury is still out. Of the 75 others, 7 went on to become all-time greats (6+ Slams), and 24 won at least a single Slam. This means that of players who finished in the top 100 as teenagers, approximately one-third end up winning a Slam, and about 10% become all-time greats.
Here are the nine players born 1989 or later who have finished in the top 100 as teenagers, chronologically: Donald Young, Kei Nishikori, Grigor Dimitrov, Bernard Tomic, Ryan Harrison, Nick Kyrgios, Borna Coric, Hyeon Chung, Thanasi Kokkinakis, and Alexander Zverev. If they are true to historical precedents, about three of them will eventually win at least one Slam and maybe one of them will become an all-time great.
If I were to guess, I'd say that Kyrgios, Coric, and Zverev have the best chances at winning a Slam. I still think Nishikori or Dimitrov could do it, and Chung shows some potential, but those first three seem to be the most likely. As for as an all-time great, none stand out. Grigor has the talent, but the ship has sailed for him, I'm afraid. I think his best-case scenario is that he gets his act together and has a late peak in his late 20s, maybe even a Stan Wawrinka-like scenario. But 2015 was a real set-back; he should have been establishing himself as a fixture in the top 10 and a contender for the top 5 and Slams. Oh well.
Beyond this group, there are some players that I'll be watching next year, to see if they can sneak into the top 100. Harry Taylor Fritz and Andrey Rublev just turned 18 within the last month, so even though they won't make the top 100 this year, they have a chance next year and I'm willing to say they deserve the "late season birthday extension." And then we have Frances Tiafoe turning 18 in January, so these three are players I'm looking at for possible future stardom.
