The Elo Rankings Thread

[El Dude]

Like it or not, Elo is becoming more prominent in tennis discourse - not unlike how WAR took over baseball stats, though I'm guessing it will always be to a lesser degree, given that stats are more prominent in baseball fandom.

Anyhow, I thought it might be worthwhile to start an Elo Rankings thread, as its advocates see it as a more accurate depiction of a player's performance level than ATP ranking. I would only suggest that Elo doesn't quite represent peak level, but more "peak sustained level." It likes someone like David Ferrer more than it does Stan Wawrinka, because Ferrer was generally consistently better over a period of several months than Stan was, even when in Stanimal mode. It also tends to diminish players with surface weaknesses, like Sampras and Becker.

Note also that there are several versions. Ultimate Tennis Statistics only updates once per year, so I'll use Tennis Abstract, which is run by the "tennis stat guru," Jeff Sackmann. Generally speaking, TA's version is lower than UTS by 150-200ish points.

Anyhow, here's the pre-Doha Elo Ratings, according to Tennis Abstract (2/17/25):

1. Jannik Sinner 2325
2. Novak Djokovic 2197
3. Carlos Alcaraz 2169
4. Alexander Zverev 2089
5. Grigor Dimitrov 2023
6. Jack Draper 2021
7. Daniil Medvedev 2006
8. Taylor Fritz 2004
9. Alex de Minaur 1974
10. Tommy Paul 1972

And here's the top 33 (just because) Peak Elo of the Open Era (active in bold):

1. Rod Laver 2571
2. Bjorn Borg 2473
3. Novak Djokovic 2470
4. John McEnroe 2442
5. Ivan Lendl 2402
6. Roger Federer 2383
7. Rafael Nadal 2370
8. Jimmy Connors 2364
9. Andy Murray 2347
10. Jannik Sinner 2325
11. Boris Becker 2320
12. Pete Sampras 2319
13. Mats Wilander 2309
14. Guillermo Vilas 2298
15. Andre Agassi 2282
16. Ilie Nastase 2256
17. Jim Courier 2256
18. Stan Smith 2248
19. Stefan Edberg 2239
20. Carlos Alcaraz 2239
21. Juan Martin del Potro 2233
22. David Ferrer 2219
23. Kei Nishikori 2210
24. John Newcombe 2209
25. Arthur Ashe 2206
26. Michael Stich 2203
27. Vitas Gerulaitis 2201
28. Lleyton Hewitt 2192
29. Daniil Medvedev 2192
30. Tom Okker 2190
31. Michael Chang 2186
32. Goran Ivanisevic 2185
33. Andy Roddick 2181

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I don't know about Jack Draper at #5. Draper just doesn't pass the eye test for me to be the next best player after Sinner/Alcaraz/Djokovic/Zverev. He's already 23 and has made it past the 4th round of a slam only once.

However, TA can be right about upcoming talents. Mirra Andreeva is a good example. They already had her near the Top 50 of Women's Tennis ELO even before her 16th birthday. They now have her 4th behind Sabalenka/Swiatek/Gauff. This is one TA saw coming well before most people.

 

[El Dude]

That is a good point, though looking at his record, Draper's losses tend to be to very good players, which means less Elo loss. His losses over the last calendar year, in reverse order:

Rublev, Alcaraz, De Minaur, Humbert, Auger-Aliassime, F Cerundolo, Sinner, Rune, Thompson, Fritz, Norrie, Paul, De Jong, Machac, Medvedev, Hurkacz, Fritz, Hurkacz, Jarry, O'Connell.

In fact, once he gets O'Connell and Jarry off the 52-week books (in a few weeks), he might get a tiny boost - assuming he doesn't lose to someone outside of the top 20 or so. He's also beaten some top 10 guys, including Alcaraz back at Queen's Club last year.