Taking Stock of the Young Guns (end of 2015)

[El Dude]

There's been lots of talk about the younger generations of players in various threads, so I thought I'd start a new thread to focus discussion here. As I said in one thread, I'll go into this in greater detail in my generations series, and possibly another article I was researching called "Looking for the Next Great Tennis Player." But I'll share some of that research now.

As I said elsewhere, the five-year generation of players born from 1989-93 is, right now, the worst in Open Era history - at least going back to Arthur Ashe's generation (b. 1939-43) that saw only five Slam titles. This current generation hasn't won a Slam yet, and the way things are looking it is hard imagining they will. Of key importance is that if you look at the year-end rankings in five year increments going back to 1975, the #1 in every fifth year belonged to the generation that is currently the age that the 89-93 generation is (22-26)....except this one. Take a look:

Year-end #1 players (age)
2015: Djokovic (28)
2010: Nadal (24)
2005: Federer (24)
2000: Kuerten (24)
1995: Sampras (25)
1990: Edberg (24)
1985: Lendl (25)
1980: Borg (24)
1975: Connors (23)

I found it rather uncanny that every player other than Djokovic was between a tight range of 23-25.

If we go back further it gets sketchy because we don't have computer rankings, but according to Wikipedia we have:

1970: (tie) Laver (32), Rosewall (36), Newcombe (26)
1965: Laver (27)
1960: (tie) P Gonzales (32), Rosewall (26)
1955: P Gonzales (27)
1950: (tie) Kramer (29), Segura (29)
1945: Riggs (27)
1940: Budge (25)
1935: Perry (26), Vines (24)
1930: Cochet (29)
1925: Tilden (32)
1920: Tilden (27)

I only include this to show just how much of a young man's game tennis has become in the Open Era.

Anyhow, back to the current era, here's the 1989-93 generation in the top 50 with birth year:

Generation b. 1989-93
8. Kei Nishikori (1989)
14. Milos Raonic (1990)
17. Bernard Tomic (1992)
19. Dominic Thiem (1993)
20. Benoit Paire (1989)
25. Jack Sock (1992)
28. Grigor Dimitrov (1991)
32. Steve Johnson (1989)
33. Joao Sousa (1989)
39. Vasek Pospisil (1990)
41. Jiri Vesely (1993)
43. Martin Klizan (1989)
45. Aljaz Bedene (1989)
48. Donald Young (1989)

Kei has a chance to go up a slot or two depending upon how he does in London, but the rest are basically set. We've seen some rises from a bunch of players - Tomic, Thiem, Sock, and Vesely - but Nishikori, Raonic, and Dimitrov have all dropped.

Now let's compare the younger generation.

Generation b. 1994-98
30. Nick Kyrgios (1995)
45. Borna Coric (1996)
51. Hyeon Chung (1996)
78. Thanasi Kokkinakis (1996)
81. Alexander Zverev (1997)
87. Lucas Pouille (1994)
110. Kyle Edmund (1995)
126. Kimmer Copperjans (1994)
133. Elias Ymer (1996)
140. Jared Donaldson (1996)

Now let's dial the older generation back five years, to when they spanned the same age range (turning 17-21):

89-93 Gen, 2010 Year-end Rankings
87. Ricardas Berankis
98. Kei Nishikori
106. Grigor Dimitrov
156. Milos Raonic
160. Federico Delbonis
161. Jerzy Janowicz
173. Ryan Harrison
203. Guillaume Rufin
208. Bernard Tomic
214. Filip Krajinovic

As you can see, the 1994-98 generation is in MUCH better shape than the 89-93 generation was five years ago, and thus will presumably be better going forward. The highest ranked teenager in 2010 was Dimitrov at #106, while this year there are four teenagers finishing in the top 100, one of whom is finishing in the top 50. Berankis has been particularly disappointing, essentially stagnating since he broke into the top 100.

So there's room for cautious optimism with the 94-98 generation, if only in comparison to the weak 89-93 generation. There doesn't seem to be a stand-out future all-time great, but there are several players who could be very good and win multiple Slams, just no Rafas or Novaks. I see the 94-98 generation as being somewhat similar to the weakish 74-78 generation. But unlike that generation, which was sandwiched between Sampras/Agassi on one hand (69-73) and Federer (79-83) on the other, the 94-98 generation will benefit from the weak 89-93 generation before it in a similar way that the 84-88 already is benefiting.

So here's my "fearless prediction" for these two generations going forward. The 89-93 generation will improve in 2016 and have its best year yet, with a half dozen players or more clawing their way into the top 20 and one or two of them back in the top 10. They will also see their first Masters title, maybe more than one. They will eventually win a Slam or two, but probably not more than several, and will be eclipsed by the 94-98 generation by 2018 or 2019.

As for the 94-98 generation, we will see continued and steady improvement over the next few years until they become the dominant generation on tour sometime in the 2019-20 range. There will be a couple years of total chaos where there are three generations vying for power, maybe 2017-19, but by 2020 certainly the 94-98 generation will have gained supremacy. This generation, I predict, will have no clearly dominant player, but several who win multiple Slams, although probably none that cross the six-Slam threshold that marks all-time greatness.

 

[El Dude]

A few other players worth mentioning, that are on my radar:

175. Andrey Rublev (b. 1997)
207. Taylor Fritz (b. 1997)
221. Frances Tiafoe (b. 1998)
245. Duckhee Lee (b. 1998)

These guys are way too young to properly assess, but look to see how they progress in 2016. They should be all around or near the top 100 by the end of the year to "keep the pace" needed to be top 10 players.

 

[herios]

Anyhow, back to the current era, here's the ten highest ranked players of the 1989-93 generation with birth year:

Generation b. 1989-93
8. Kei Nishikori (1989)
14. Milos Raonic (1990)
17. Bernard Tomic (1992)
19. Dominic Thiem (1993)
25. Jack Sock (1992)
28. Grigor Dimitrov (1991)
39. Jiri Vesely (1993)
57. Jerzy Janowicz (1990)
67. Pablo Carreno Busta (1991)
69. Denis Kudla (1992)

El Dude this list is inaccurate. You need to drop the bottom 4 and insert:
Paire
Johnson
Sousa
Pospisil

 

[El Dude]

Whoops, you're right. I made the mistake of using the under 25 option from live-tennis.eu. I'll adjust the OP.

 

[Riotbeard]

Great post El Dude. Not really much to argue with. Not convinced about the Nishikori generation next year, but it is certainly plausible.

 

[herios]

The amended top 10 in the Nishikori generations is the following (I will put in brackets their last year end ranking for a comparison how did they do this year):

8. Nishikori (5)
14. Raonic (8)
16. Goffin (22)
18. Tomic (56)
19. Thiem (39)
20 Paire (118)
26. Sock (42)
28. Dimitrov (11)
32. Johnson (37)
33. Sousa (54)


So, with the exception of Nishikori, Raonic and Dimitrov, all the other players got better this year. There is no doubt in my mind that this group will get even better next year, the only one question which remains to be seen is by how much.
They are aged between 22 (Thiem) and 26 (Paire and Sousa) and these guys have yet to reach their peak.

 

[herios]

El Dude. I was reviewing the list of players in Kyrgios generation (1994-98), and I observed that you did not include any players born in 1994. I assume you queried only players born after 1994, therefore you skipped that year entirely.
By the way, those players who are now 21y old, is another poor year, it seems, there is only one player born in 1994 right now in the top 100, Lucas Pouille.

 

[El Dude]

Whoops, another error on my part. I added in Pouille and Coppejans to the list above.

 

[herios]

Some of the rankings will still change this year. There are many challengers on going, this week and next week, which involve many young players and also many top 100 players.

For example, today on the challenger circuit, Paire, Berankis, Millman, Kyle Edmunds all won events.
All of them will gain ranking positions, as well as their opponents who were in the final.
What impressed me the most was Edmunds winning an event on clay in South America, defeating a veteran clay specialist, Berlocq.
Will the young Brit be good on clay??? Fingers crossed.

 

[herios]

Not sure if this was posted, I cannot remember it, therefore I am doing it here on this thrtead, because it is about one of the teenagers.

Hyeon Chung was named the most improved player of the year.
Started the year ranked 173, ended it ranked 51.

 

[El Dude]

that's nice to hear. I don't know anything about Chung's game, but for some reason he seems to be overlooked a bit.

 

[herios]

that's nice to hear. I don't know anything about Chung's game, but for some reason he seems to be overlooked a bit.

I know why. He did not commit to main ATP events like Coric, Zverev and Kokkinakis, he chose instead to stick it out on the challenger tour instead, where he improved his ranking quite well.
He will be more visible from here on, I am sure.

 

[herios]

that's nice to hear. I don't know anything about Chung's game, but for some reason he seems to be overlooked a bit.

If Chung was under the radar until now, that will be over soon. He will get big time exposre, because he will be the first opponent for Novak in a few days.

 

[nehmeth]

that's nice to hear. I don't know anything about Chung's game, but for some reason he seems to be overlooked a bit.

I know why. He did not commit to main ATP events like Coric, Zverev and Kokkinakis, he chose instead to stick it out on the challenger tour instead, where he improved his ranking quite well.
He will be more visible from here on, I am sure.

It's one thing to improve your ranking against poor players and another to improve your game by stepping up to compete against the best players. Not sure his strategy was the best thing for him in the long run. We will see in a few days.

 

[herios]

that's nice to hear. I don't know anything about Chung's game, but for some reason he seems to be overlooked a bit.

I know why. He did not commit to main ATP events like Coric, Zverev and Kokkinakis, he chose instead to stick it out on the challenger tour instead, where he improved his ranking quite well.
He will be more visible from here on, I am sure.

It's one thing to improve your ranking against poor players and another to improve your game by stepping up to compete against the best players. Not sure his strategy was the best thing for him in the long run. We will see in a few days.

He is still very young (19). He will have plenty of time to develop playing against top players too.
I do not see Kokkinakis and Zverev much better than Chung, because they played the main tour one year earlier.

 

[herios]

I mentioned before that I was impressed by Taylor Harry Fritz, the young American player, on the USA report thread.

I am officially jumping on a bandwagon and I want to get in early to get a first class seat
I am truly a believer that Taylor Harry Fritz will be a really good player.
He started the season by winning another event in Happy Valley (AUS), defeating top seed Dudi Sela in the finals (ranked 98) and just qualified for the main draw today, so basically he is undefeated this year (8-0).

The most impressive about him is his mental toughness, sign of the champions, he showed today in his match against Misha Zverev. Taylor won the first set 6-3, then lost the second in a TB (7-5). He lost the next few games going down to 0-4, however he regrouped and won the next 6 games dfeating the much more experienced Zverev.
He will be the youngest player in the main draw at 18y and 2 months.

He is now set to play R1 against Jack Sock, and that is a bummer to have two young american hopefuls to face each other right away.

 

[mrzz]

that's nice to hear. I don't know anything about Chung's game, but for some reason he seems to be overlooked a bit.

I know why. He did not commit to main ATP events like Coric, Zverev and Kokkinakis, he chose instead to stick it out on the challenger tour instead, where he improved his ranking quite well.
He will be more visible from here on, I am sure.

It's one thing to improve your ranking against poor players and another to improve your game by stepping up to compete against the best players. Not sure his strategy was the best thing for him in the long run. We will see in a few days.

For some reason I remembered today that David Goffin did just that... went from around #100 in the world to around #40 by winning four or five challengers in a row, then continued his run and now is a consistent top 20. Maybe it is an exception (I really do not know), but he showed the strategy may work.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Well, you got to spend reasonable amount of time in the challenger circuit before moving on to ATP events. Less time spent there, will lead to getting crushed at ATP and losing confidence. More time spent there, will lead to not improving fast as you are not exposed to tough competition. There is a fine balance needed.

 

[El Dude]

Already Chung and Coric are out. Probably Zverev soon. But Noah Rubin?

Sent from my HTC6525LVW using Tapatalk

 

[nehmeth]

Already Chung and Coric are out. Probably Zverev soon. But Noah Rubin?

:snicker Chung was kinda done when the draw came out, don't you think??

Couldn't believe my eyes when I saw Rubin took down Benoit Paire in three sets. Happy for the young American. This wasn't the beginning I'd hoped for Benoit's year though. :cover

Rubin plays Pierre-Hugues Herbert next. A young(er) gun at 24, he upset Andujar to make it to the next round.

http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2016/01/american-noah-rubin-upsets-17th-seed-paire-for-1st-major-win/57267/#.Vpz4D5MrKHo