Singles Race to London: where will Federer end this year?

[Denis]

Federer is currently ranked no. 10 (!) in year to date rankings:

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Rankings/YTD-Singles.aspx

He will have a good indoor season at least, but is this the beginning of the end? Wimbledon and the US Open will be crucial for him, an upset might cause him to move below top 4 for the first time in a decade or so.

 

[Front242]

The 2 months with no play didn't help and of course the lack of any title defenses so far this year. Poor showing for him this year so far alright but hopefully the 2 months off will rejuvenate him. We'll find out pretty soon next week if he's rusty as an old nail or improved in form.

 

[El Dude]

Well its all relative to the rest of the field. I think he's clearly the 4th best player in the game right now, and that his year-end rankings will reflect that, or close to it. I suppose he could fall to #5-7 if Ferrer and/or Del Potro and/or Berdych plays a ton and Federer goes out early in a Slam, but I think #4 is most likely.

 

[Ricardo]

Federer is currently ranked no. 10 (!) in year to date rankings:

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Rankings/YTD-Singles.aspx

He will have a good indoor season at least, but is this the beginning of the end? Wimbledon and the US Open will be crucial for him, an upset might cause him to move below top 4 for the first time in a decade or so.

anyone with a brain would know he is not in it for the ranking, so why bother? why should anyone be worried that he is now 10th in the race? nobody serious about ranking would take vacation mid-season (not due to injuries or mis-haps), and have such casual schedule. What's your point exactly?

 

[shawnbm]

Roger plays for slams and to beat the top dogs--he plays for legacy. It seems clear to me he no longer cares much about his ranking; he already came back and took the number one ranking from Nole last year and won his record-tying 7th Wimbledon. I think he would like another Wimbledon, French and US Open--in that order.

 

[Ricardo]

Roger plays for slams and to beat the top dogs--he plays for legacy. It seems clear to me he no longer cares much about his ranking; he already came back and took the number one ranking from Nole last year and won his record-tying 7th Wimbledon. I think he would like another Wimbledon, French and US Open--in that order.

Nice to see what he did after the big mouth Martina motivated him to prove her wrong.

 

[Didi]

My guess is that Fed's goal is to physically peak for Wimbledon, the US Open and the Indoor season. When he is fit and in full force his first strike tennis is still head and shoulders above anybody. That's the part of the season where people should start judging his season. He knows very well that at this stage of his career it doesn't make any sense to destroy himself in grueling baseline wars with Djokovic, Nadal and Murray. Of course he can't avoid them during the slow hardcourt spring and clay season but peaking for Wimby, Cincinnati, New York and the Indoor season is the most effective and best way forward for him.

I also wonder if his back problems at Wimbledon caused some subsequent setbacks we don't know of yet. I mean he looked physically dead in the match with Benneteau and for large parts Malisse. Then he went on to win the title, probably under immense pain. We will never know though. But his serve and overall game has not been the same since. He played his worst US Open and Indoor season in more than a decade and had his worst start into a season since probably 2003. I'm not the right one to speculate but it seems to me that he sacrificed a lot for that Wimbledon trophy in 2012.

 

[I.Haychew]

Someone please help me out. What does it take to qualify for the WTF? Finish the year ranked in the top 8? Or be among the top 8 in points accumulated in 2013? Which is it?

 

[ftan]

Someone please help me out. What does it take to qualify for the WTF? Finish the year ranked in the top 8? Or be among the top 8 in points accumulated in 2013? Which is it?

It is the points accumulated in 2013. You have to be top 8, I hope Federer gets enough to make through. Although I am quite sure, if he sees himself at risk at losing the spot.. he will buck up his schedule

 

[El Dude]

Nice post, Didi, I suspect you're right about Federer's intentions.

ftan, Roger would have to go out early (before the QF) in a couple Slams to not qualify for the WTF. Top 8 is relatively "easy" for him. About 4,000 points gets you into the top 8 and Roger already has 1170 on the season. If he averages a SF finish at the three remaining Slams (3 x 720) he's almost there (3330) and would only need to do fairly well at a few ATP 1000s. Or he could even only make it to the QF (3 x 360 = 1080 + 1170 = 2250) and win a single ATP 1000 and do well in a few others and he'd be in.

To put it another way, you really have to fall completely out of the elite to not make the WTF. If Roger is healthy he should be a shoe-in.

 

[ftan]

Nice post, Didi, I suspect you're right about Federer's intentions.

ftan, Roger would have to go out early (before the QF) in a couple Slams to not qualify for the WTF. Top 8 is relatively "easy" for him. About 4,000 points gets you into the top 8 and Roger already has 1170 on the season. If he averages a SF finish at the three remaining Slams (3 x 720) he's almost there (3330) and would only need to do fairly well at a few ATP 1000s. Or he could even only make it to the QF (3 x 360 = 1080 + 1170 = 2250) and win a single ATP 1000 and do well in a few others and he'd be in.

To put it another way, you really have to fall completely out of the elite to not make the WTF. If Roger is healthy he should be a shoe-in.

As always El dude, you are magical with numbers . I just cant imagine a WTF without RF

 

[I.Haychew]

Thanks, ftan and El Dude.

 

[DarthFed]

Federer is currently ranked no. 10 (!) in year to date rankings:

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Rankings/YTD-Singles.aspx

He will have a good indoor season at least, but is this the beginning of the end? Wimbledon and the US Open will be crucial for him, an upset might cause him to move below top 4 for the first time in a decade or so.

The beginning of the end was 5 years ago. The question is whether this is the end of the end.

Fed will finish top 6 in his sleep. If he wakes up sometime this year he can be anywhere from 2-4 but most likely #3 or #4 at this point. Still a lot of tennis to be played.

 

[herios]

Federer is currently ranked no. 10 (!) in year to date rankings:

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Rankings/YTD-Singles.aspx

He will have a good indoor season at least, but is this the beginning of the end? Wimbledon and the US Open will be crucial for him, an upset might cause him to move below top 4 for the first time in a decade or so.

The beginning of the end was 5 years ago. The question is whether this is the end of the end.

Fed will finish top 6 in his sleep. If he wakes up sometime this year he can be anywhere from 2-4 but most likely #3 or #4 at this point. Still a lot of tennis to be played.

Until the QF streak in slams is alive and continues, he will stay in the top 8 without a doubt. Wake me up when he fails to accomplish that for the first time.
The only caveat to the fact he is not in anymore for the points race rather to add slams, if he slips out of top 4, he makes his task very hard to come to fruition.
And yes, the next 2 onths will tell us a lot about his form.

 

[tented]

Federer is currently ranked no. 10 (!) in year to date rankings:

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Rankings/YTD-Singles.aspx

He will have a good indoor season at least, but is this the beginning of the end? Wimbledon and the US Open will be crucial for him, an upset might cause him to move below top 4 for the first time in a decade or so.

The beginning of the end was 5 years ago. The question is whether this is the end of the end.

Oh, geez, I hope not. Even as a huge Nadal, for me the day Federer retires will be a black day. I suspect that's the case with most fans of Rafa, and even Djokovic, even though they may not admit it -- or even be aware of it. Perhaps it will take Roger retiring for some to realize how much they wish he hadn't.

It does seem to be a particularly grim stretch for him, yet his obit has previously been written many times, only for him to come back. Who on earth, in 2011, would have bet even a dollar that Federer would win another Major? Not many, myself included, but he proved us wrong yet again.

 

[jhar26]

Roger had a incredible finish to the 2011 season after a long break. He is trying to do the same thing here, but this time in the heart of the season. It's a huge gamble in some respects, but the end of 2011 plus 2012 when he was going for Sampras' record of weeks at #1 was probably the last time he considered the ranking list a top priority. Even so, if his ranking would really be in danger of taking a nosedive I think he's likely to add a few tournaments to his schedule. His top priorities now are Wimbledon, the US Open and the other hardcourt tournaments before and after. He knows that him winning the FO is a bit unlikely with both Nadal and Djokovic in the draw (although he wouldn't pass up the opportunity if it should present itself of course) and I think he sees the entire claycourt swing more as a time to get rid of whatever rust there may be and to play himself back into form to reach his peak by the time of Wimbledon. Sounds like a plan, but it's also a gamble. But perhaps it's one worth taking. Him winning Wimbledon and breaking the record for weeks at #1 last year was a huge statement if ever there was one. Whatever more he may achieve from now on is just a bonus. He must realize that taking care of his body and picking his spots gives him the best chance of making that bonus a huge one.

 

[DarthFed]

Federer is currently ranked no. 10 (!) in year to date rankings:

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Rankings/YTD-Singles.aspx

He will have a good indoor season at least, but is this the beginning of the end? Wimbledon and the US Open will be crucial for him, an upset might cause him to move below top 4 for the first time in a decade or so.

The beginning of the end was 5 years ago. The question is whether this is the end of the end.

Oh, geez, I hope not. Even as a huge Nadal, for me the day Federer retires will be a black day. I suspect that's the case with most fans of Rafa, and even Djokovic, even though they may not admit it -- or even be aware of it. Perhaps it will take Roger retiring for some to realize how much they wish he hadn't.

It does seem to be a particularly grim stretch for him, yet his obit has previously been written many times, only for him to come back. Who on earth, in 2011, would have bet even a dollar that Federer would win another Major? Not many, myself included, but he proved us wrong yet again.

Roger has said he will play through 2016 Olympics countless times but will he continue on if he is not a legit threat to win a slam? I doubt it. "The end of the end" is when that happens, when he no longer will be considered an elite player. Fed could stay top 10 until late 30's but #8 or #9 and being a Tipsarevic or Gasquet with no prayer at a slam is not going to keep him satisfied.

I still think he is a threat, especially at the last 2 slams. It is just a horrid stretch for him. He can still play and I think we'll see that again shortly.

 

[Mog]

Roger had a incredible finish to the 2011 season after a long break. He is trying to do the same thing here, but this time in the heart of the season. It's a huge gamble in some respects, but the end of 2011 plus 2012 when he was going for Sampras' record of weeks at #1 was probably the last time he considered the ranking list a top priority. Even so, if his ranking would really be in danger of taking a nosedive I think he's likely to add a few tournaments to his schedule. His top priorities now are Wimbledon, the US Open and the other hardcourt tournaments before and after. He knows that him winning the FO is a bit unlikely with both Nadal and Djokovic in the draw (although he wouldn't pass up the opportunity if it should present itself of course) and I think he sees the entire claycourt swing more as a time to get rid of whatever rust there may be and to play himself back into form to reach his peak by the time of Wimbledon. Sounds like a plan, but it's also a gamble. But perhaps it's one worth taking. Him winning Wimbledon and breaking the record for weeks at #1 last year was a huge statement if ever there was one. Whatever more he may achieve from now on is just a bonus. He must realize that taking care of his body and picking his spots gives him the best chance of making that bonus a huge one.

Very nice post Jhar26.
What Roger achieved in 2011,getting back to #1 and winning Wimblrdon was his very fulfilling achievements. Most here and everywhere though it was kind of impossible but he did it. He did put the priority for #1 ranking to break Sampras record of 286 weeks at #1. But now ranking is not his priority, only slams win is. I think he has a chance of adding one slam( Wimbledon/USO) to his resume. This time it will be more difficult because there are Djokovic(the best one now), Nadal on his impressive come back, Murray playing very well.
RG and AUS are the most difficult ones for him to win at this stage.
As Jhhar25 said whatever more he may achieve from now on is just a bonus to enhance his superb resume.

 

[Denis]

If Federer remains healthy I don't think he will fall outside top 8 before the end of the year. However, not playing that much and a couple of poor results could lead to him losing his top 4 ranking. I am thinking whether the 'Big 4' reign is coming to an end, with Federer dropping out. It's all speculation of course, but his results this year have been rather poor so far. A good showing at Wimbledon or the US Open will be important in that respect.

 

[the AntiPusher]

If Federer remains healthy I don't think he will fall outside top 8 before the end of the year. However, not playing that much and a couple of poor results could lead to him losing his top 4 ranking. I am thinking whether the 'Big 4' reign is coming to an end, with Federer dropping out. It's all speculation of course, but his results this year have been rather poor so far. A good showing at Wimbledon or the US Open will be important in that respect.

"He knows that him winning the FO is a bit unlikely with both Nadal and Djokovic in the draw "

Fed knows that his chances of winning any GS very unlikely with both Nadal and Djoker in the draw especially if those two make it to the late rounds. Fed hasnt won a slam in that scenerio since US 08 if my memory serves me correct.