Singapore Day 5: Sharapova/Radwanska, Kvitova/Wozniacki, Halep/Ivanovic

[tented]

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Click here for Day 5 Order of Play

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Please use this thread to discuss Day 5 action.

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[Correspondent Kiu]

Standings:

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Red Group
Simona 2-0
Serena 2-1
Ana 1-1
Genie 0-3

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White Group
Caro 2-0
Aga 1-1
Petra 1-1
Masha 0-2

 

[markus1]

One big questions hangs above day 5.. Will Simona tank to eliminate Serena, or will she play fair and square? I think it will be the latter, but this way she can also lose. Decisions time.

 

[tossip]

One big questions hangs above day 5.. Will Simona tank to eliminate Serena, or will she play fair and square? I think it will be the latter, but this way she can also lose. Decisions time.

all eyes are on her now...:hug..if she wants to be respected as an elite player she will play to win otherwise there will be asterisk on her resume..she has to do the ethical thing otherwise no one will respect her.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I posted this in Day 4, may be it should be posted here.

Here is the current situation in the Red Group with only one match left to be played.

1. If Halep wins the match against Ana (independent of in how many sets),
Halep wins the Red Group and Serena will be the runner up (as Halep
will have 3 wins, Serena 2 wins, Ana 1 win and Genie 0 wins).

2. If Ana wins the match in three sets, Halep wins the Red Group and Serena
will be runner up (as Serena, Halep and Ana all will have 2 wins each and
Halep has 5 sets won out of 7, Serena 4 out of 6 and Ana 4 out of 7).

3. If Ana wins the match in two sets, we have an interesting situation.
Serena, Halep and Ana all will have 2 wins each. Further, all would
have won 4 sets out of 6 and so % of sets won will also be tied.
So, it will come to percentage of games won. Serena has won
52.17% of games and is done. We will know the % of games won
by Ana and Halep after the last match. The two girls with the
highest % of games won will advance to SF. While theoretically,
Serena still has a chance even in this scenario, her prospects
are not good in this scenario. [UPDATE: upon further calculations,
it turns out that independent of the exact score, in this case
Serena will be eliminated; the exact score is needed only
to determine which one of Simona and Ana will be the winner
and which one will be runner up; see post #9 below for details.]

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Theoretically speaking, YE #1 is not yet decided. Maria can still become YE #1, if she
wins the whole tournament by winning the final against anyone not named Williams (that is the ONLY way she can do so any more) and mathematically she still has a chance for it (even though Maria making it to SF itself looks highly unlikely at this time).

 

[GameSetAndMath]

"In order for Sharapova to progress to the semifinals, she will need to win her last match against Agnieszka Radwanska and rely on Caroline Wozniacki beating Kvitova, and have both matches decided in straight sets."

Assuming, all possibilities are equally likely in the last two remaining matches in the white
group, this gives Maria a 6.25% chance of making it to the semifinals as the runner up
and 0% chance of making it to the semifinals as the winner.

 

[Correspondent Kiu]

That's a lotta ifs GSM
But hey, anything can happen. It's good that it came down to last day and last matches, this is the way it should be. i don't like one-sided results.

Now since I was 3 for 4 yesterday, I am feeling good!
Stay tuned for correspondent Kiu's predictions. I'll probably be 1 for 4 tomorrow!

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Simona is in pole position now. Not only that she can tank her match against Ana, she
can even afford to get double bagelled by Ana and still would make it to SF. If she gets
double bagelled, Simona's game winning percentage will be 55.81% which is still higher
than that of Serena's 52.17% and so Simona is guaranteed to make SF even in that
case.

But, if she tanks by eating double bagel, Ana's winning percentage would be 66.67%
and so, Halep will end up as a runner up of the group and Ana will become the winner
of that group. Hence, Halep would not go to that extent.

After setting up the model and solving a quadratic equation, you can figure that
the optimal strategy for Halep would be to win five games and then tank the match
in straight sets. This would not only ensure that Serena will be eliminated, but will
also ensure that Halep will be the winner of the group (as in this case, Halep's
game winning percentage will be 60.41%, Ana's will be 60.37% and Serena's will
be 52.17%)

Once Simona wins, 5 games or more but loses the match in straight sets
(does not matter exactly how many games she wins as long as it is at least
five), she would achieve both objectives of eliminating Serena and guaranteeing
herself as the winner of the group. If she loses the match in straight sets and
scores 4 or less games, then Serena will be eiliminated, but Ana will end up
as the winner. If she wins the match or loses the match in three sets,
Halep will be the winner and Serena will be the runner up.

 

[faradubii]

What if Ana wins in straights by having a way better day than Simona? I know! We already decided she tanks the match. Serena did this to herself. Some points not lost to Bouchard (a bagel in the 2nd set was doable), not losing that bad to Simona (taking at least one break), not letting Ana win 8 games in that match.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Another interesting tidbit:.

At this time Maria is mathematically eliminated from winning the White Group.
Also, Serena is mathematically eliminated from winning the Red Group. These
are just plain impossible and not just improbable.

This would mean that in the (highly unlikely) event that Serena and Maria
face off once again this year, it will have to be in the finals of the WTF.
That would be exactly 10 years from 2004 WTF which was the last time
Maria beat Serena.

 

[Sundaymorningguy]

We'll I am inclined to think Simona will do her best as she can gain the number two ranking if she does well here or put herself in the position to get the number 2 seed for Australia.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

We'll I am inclined to think Simona will do her best as she can gain the number two ranking if she does well here or put herself in the position to get the number 2 seed for Australia.

Are you kidding? Wrong thinking (perhaps wishful) on your part. Sure, Simona would want to do well in WTF so that she can gain no. 2 seed. But, her best chances for that is to actually win the event. The best chance for that is to eliminate Serena right now when she can, instead of taking a chance by giving another life to Serena.

The RR match loss gives her 70 points and RR win gives her 230 points. So, the net reduction she takes by tanking is just 160 points. That is peanuts compared to the 450 she can possibly gain in the finals, if she strangles Serena right now.

If at all Simona does not tank, it will be due to principle (or fear of being chastised) and not due to strategy.

WTA could have avoided all these by scheduling Halep vs. Ana match first. :idea:

 

[Hoergren]

This board shows pretty good what happens if - it's from Sports Illustrated:

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Basically, here are the chances for different players making it to SF in the white group.

1. Wozniacki ----- 93.75%
2. Radwanska --- 56.25%
3. Kvitova -------- 43.75%
4. Sharapova ------ 6.25%

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

My Selections for the following matches are,

Sharapova,Kvitova (though I would not be surprised if she lost,following Kvitova is like being on a roller coaster ride) Halep.
Errani/Vinci to win in the doubles match.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

I find the suggestion that Halep would tank? quite offensive.

Halep has everything to play for at Singapore,we are talking about the Top 8 Elite current players in the world? these players have worked hard all year to qualify for this tournament,their reward was to be one of the Elite Top 8 in the world.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I am not saying Simona will tank. All I am saying is strategically, it would be a good idea
for her to tank. Finally, this has nothing to do with Simona as an individual. I would say
the same thing for anybody else in that position.

Remember what happened in Women's Badminton event in the Olympics. One team
tanked to make sure that another team is eliminated. Tanking happens at the highest
levels of sports. Don't be so naïve.

Here is a link to the Olympics badminton scandal

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

I am not saying Simona will tank. All I am saying is strategically, it would be a good idea
for her to tank. Finally, this has nothing to do with Simona as an individual. I would say
the same thing for anybody else in that position.

Remember what happened in Women's Badminton event in the Olympics. One team
tanked to make sure that another team is eliminated. Tanking happens at the highest
levels of sports. Don't be so naïve.

I am not naive

I happened to be working at a tennis tournament many years ago,where a ATP player was investigated in regards to Tanking.The player was Gilbus,when he was playing at Sydney tournament by the way.So I have had the first hand knowledge in regards to Tanking.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

All eyes will be on Simona tomorrow. If she chooses to tank, she should do artfully
so that nobody finds out.

Actually, even if Simona plays with good intention and effort and loses in straight sets,
lot of people will accuse her of tanking.