Russia, election meddling and cyber influence

Moxie

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France today has warned Russia about meddling in its elections. In the US, it is generally believe that Russian involved itself, and there are calls for a Special Prosecutor to investigate. Additionally, Russia is trying hard to have an internet propaganda presence, mainly in Sputnik News and Russia Today, which get quoted here often, and are state-sponsored. I'm wondering what folks here think about this. How effective can this be, and what does the current Russian push for influence mean for Europe and the US?

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-cyber-idUSKBN15U22U

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sputnik_(news_agency)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RT_(TV_network)
 
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Nekro

France today has warned Russia about meddling in its elections. In the US, it is generally believe that Russian involved itself, and there are calls for a Special Prosecutor to investigate. Additionally, Russia is trying hard to have an internet propaganda presence, mainly in Sputnik News and Russia Today, which get quoted here often, and are state-sponsored. I'm wondering what folks here think about this. How effective can this be, and what does the current Russian push for influence mean for Europe and the US?
I think that most of these are conspiracy theories.

The reason many people in Europe like Russia is that Russia is closer to Europe's old conservative values than what Merkel&co represent.

Also many countries are doing great business, etc.. deals with Russia. Especially in Eastern European countries that are discriminated against hard by the western EU countries. So in my country for example we have an "Eastern Opening" strategy, we're working on the good relationships with Russia and China. We made a great deal with Russia to pimp up our nuke plant for example.

What i noticed is that when i talk about Russia on international boards often people think that i'm a "putinbot", that i'm paid or something by the Russians to say good things about them. which is idiotic. :lol3: Because they believe all the anti-russian propaganda from the western media. They also believe the theories about these Russian "agents" or whatever working on "converting " people to "putinism" or whatever. This is BS. I'm talking with russians a lot, i'm playing with russians a lot, i would have been approached i guess by "agents" i spend so much time in the eastern community but nothing like that happened.

So i think that it's 99% conspiracy theories....
 

Moxie

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So all of what has come out about the US elections, which caused Lt. Gen. Flynn to "resign" as National Security Advisor (he was pushed out by Trump,) seems just conspiracy theory to you? He spoke to the Russian ambassador, I believe, and I don't know how untoward what was said actually was, but he lost his job. And the NYTimes says that other aides in the Trump camp spoke to various Russian players. Trump himself mentioned Paul Manafort, his previous campaign chair, as someone who had contacts with Russians. There isn't anyone here that doubts that Russia made an effort to influence the US elections, via leaks, and in favor of Donald Trump. Whether or not that had an influence on the election is debatable, but that it happened seems not to be.

I'm really not asking if people like Russia or Putin. I'm talking about influencing foreign elections and a propaganda campaign. Your personal experiences are colorful and illustrative, but, as Humphrey Bogart said in "Casablanca," not really worth 'a hill of beans' in the wider context of the world. But thanks for giving it the personal touch.
 
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Nekro

So all of what has come out about the US elections, which caused Lt. Gen. Flynn to "resign" as National Security Advisor (he was pushed out by Trump,) seems just conspiracy theory to you? He spoke to the Russian ambassador, I believe, and I don't know how untoward what was said actually was, but he lost his job.

What happened there was this:

I guess you know Obama as one of his last moves threw out lots of Russian diplomats of the USA. Flynn called Sergey Kislyak and told him not to worry, in other words they discussed the sanctions. And since the Russians got the promise that there's no problem, the next government were going to withdraw the sanctions, they didn't do anything, they didn't throw out any Americans. Trump after he got president even mentioned the sanctions should be taken back. But then it turned out the phone of the Russian ambassador was bugged. Flynn resigned cause he lied to Mike Pence he didn't talk with the ambassador and not because he conspired or anything.... Why do you think they didn't leak the actual convo? Because it contains nothing bad, They just used it to make Trump's team look bad and to spawn more conspiracy theories.


Anyway, when i was talking about conspiracy theories i was primarily talking about how Russia is getting influence in Europe through implants or agents.
 
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Moxie

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What happened there was this:

I guess you know Obama as one of his last moves threw out lots of Russian diplomats of the USA. Flynn called Sergey Kislyak and told him not to worry, in other words they discussed the sanctions. And since the Russians got the promise that there's no problem, the next government were going to withdraw the sanctions, they didn't do anything, they didn't throw out any Americans. Trump after he got president even mentioned the sanctions should be taken back. But then it turned out the phone of the Russian ambassador was bugged. Flynn resigned cause he lied to Mike Pence he didn't talk with the ambassador and not because he conspired or anything.... Why do you think they didn't leak the actual convo? Because it contains nothing bad, They just used it to make Trump's team look bad and to spawn more conspiracy theories.


Anyway, when i was talking about conspiracy theories i was primarily talking about how Russia is getting influence in Europe through implants or agents.
Your recounting of that makes it actually worse than it has yet proven to be, though it does reflect how it sounds. IF Flynn was basically making a pre-deal with Russia on sanctions, that was illegal. The fact that Putin did not react to Obama's throwing out his diplomats seems to confirm that he had reason not to react strongly and vindictively, as would have been his usual. Flynn didn't resign because he lied to Pense. Trump knew, and he didn't tell Pense, either. For two weeks. Trump forced him to resign only when it came out in the press. See the difference? But I don't want to cloud the sin by saying that it was the cover-up that was the problem. There was a very solid possibility that Flynn was trading favors with the Russian ambassador before the hand-off of powers. And if Trump knew about it and colluded, that's an impeachable offense. I doubt all of that will be provable, but there is still a lot to be gotten to the bottom of, and, if the Republicans in charge have a care for this country and a back-bone, they'll look into it.

As to Europe, there are concerns coming out of France.
 
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Nekro

Lol people have been talking about incoming impeachment from the start for this and that, for everything. I don't see it happening :p

Yes yes, there are concerns nonstop from western europe, i'm just laughing about that tbh...

The only thing i care about is Merkel. She has to be removed asap so Europe can be fixed. Europe also needs to fix the relationship with Russia. Then all will be great.
 

Moxie

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The only thing i care about is Merkel. She has to be removed asap so Europe can be fixed. Europe also needs to fix the relationship with Russia. Then all will be great.
Would you care to illuminate on that? What would be fixed by Merkel being out and the European relationship with Russia fixed? I'm genuinely interested in your take on this.
 
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Nekro

Would you care to illuminate on that? What would be fixed by Merkel being out and the European relationship with Russia fixed? I'm genuinely interested in your take on this.
Well, ofc no more migration level messup from Merkel, also Merkel was an obama-soros puppet. (Yeah and btw Soros needs to go too. I hope he really packs up his CEU and takes it to Bonn as he "threatened" lol, only in our dreams, he knows here's still the best and safest place for it, once the German right goes berserk they'll throw all the Soros-like people and their little institutions out of Germany) Yeah, and NATO is a heap of junk. We don't need nato, we don't need their stupid terrorist missions thanks. Europe needs cooperation with Russia militarily, economically and in every way.
 

Moxie

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Thanks for clarifying your position. That's helpful.
 

mrzz

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Moxie, good that you got a thread just for this topic, I really wanted to talk about it with someone with a different view than mine.

Before I get into specifics, I have a general comment that in fact reflects what I don´t like about the current state of affairs, and in my view is far more important than this specific subject. The subject, however, illustrates my point, as I hope you will see.

Most debates about important issues, nowadays, sound more like parallel monologues than actual dialogues. People on both sides tend to repeat themselves, citing the same sources, the same arguments, and never listening to what the other side has to say. At most they try to discredit their sources, or their intellectual references. I am pretty sure you are thinking "hell yeah", while people with opposing views to your are thinking... "hell yeah" too.

I say this living on a country that I would guess is as divided as yours. There are some important differences, but the divide is there, and it is extremely strong. I spent most of my life trying to speak with both sides, because I really cannot line up with neither, and lately I feel that I cannot speak with almost anyone. I wonder how many people in your country feel the same. There is a political war, or better, a lot of political wars going on and some groups just want it to go on, they want the divide because they profit from it, either economically, politically or in whatever crazy sense it is meaningful to them. We give such people what they want when we fail to even talk to each other properly.

Ok, now back to topic. Russia.

I do not think it is a conspiracy theory. I think that it is a wild twist of ordinary facts that play with people´s imagination. I follow some discussions and it sounds like we are talking about 007 stuff, with high tech plots and criminal masterminds laughing in the backstage. However, the actual information (not opinion) that we have on the subject shows what is completely obvious for anyone that does not naively looks at international geo-politics.

Political forces in one state interfere in other sovereign states? all the time.
Political forces and sovereign states use cyber-info, social media and whatever to help their political intentions? all the time.
Trump and Putin where on the same side on this one? Much, much less than the average alliance made by most political forces in the world most developed nations.

The day to day activity of diplomats includes talking to a lot of people, making a lot of connections. Have you ever checked on what the US admittedly did in Ukraine? You have videos of political meetings with members of the US (former) administration with guys who are OPENLY neo-nazi. The US made public statements saying that it (shoud I use "it" to refer to a country? correct me please, no harm intended) expected the government in Ukraine to acquire a more moderate position on a lot of issues...

Do I think the US is the empire of evil because of that? No, I believe they made a mistake, or an extremely cynical calculation, or whatever. The point is that the geo-political game is complex, and all players play it in a hard, self interested way. Nobody follows principles, they use them to justify their actions.

Some news pieces I watched on the way Russians used social media to influence the election made laugh for hours. I mentioned in other thread, one news piece supposedly made sneaking in an office in Moscow with "agents" generating social media content made feel ashamed of simply watching it. For, what, ten years at least political parties, companies, states, you name it, have armies of people doing this. Here in Brazil I can easily spot from which side came most comments on the news website (that´s an disgusting habit I have, to read those comments. It makes me sick all the time). Not the explicit ones, those are obvious, but the ones trying to pretend they are from one "side", when they are from the other. Point is, those are the rules of engagement. Whatever happened on this elections is not outside the curve.

Off course, half of South America grins when hears about the US complaining about foreign influence... it is selfish, I admit, but the irony is there.

You surely noticed that I did not get in too many specifics about this issue. I wanted to keep it in general terms, yes, and a lot of specifics were already discussed in other threads.

Just a comment on the Russian state media... is, it is "state" media, but honestly I do not see the difference to normal media. I could even suspect that they could be more independent than western media, which is completely partisan as well. People dream of media independence... and of course media itself try to feed the idea, but for me it is one of the most naive concepts one can think off. Of course one guy can suddenly follow his conscience and be loyal to a given principle, but this could happen anywhere, not only in the New York Times. Be it in US or in Russia, such a person would be kicked out one way or another. Again, as I put in other threads, the only way I believe a person can be well informed is to follow a lot of different sources, the most direct sources possible (watching live feeds of public sessions on state institutions, etc) and thinking hard by themselves. It takes a monumental effort, and sometimes it does not pay. But the alternative is to consume everything from a few sources, and hope that they don´t fall to the temptation to make you believe what they want you to believe. You are a opinion maker yourself, you know it does not take a conspiracy to twist it. I am sure you are fair, but I would not expect much from the rest of the world.
 
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britbox

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Moxie, "meddling" or "influencing" elections is par for the course... it's Geopolitics 101. Of course, there are different degress of "meddling"... from sponsoring military coups to putting out propaganda.

The United States is the biggest culprit by a country mile.

As for Flynn, yes he probably had to go... he lied about it, but "back-channelling" is nothing new. He was stupid getting so directly involved rather than using a proxy.

I roll my eyes at the Russian "story" that some Americans seem to be clinging onto for dear life... so Trump wants to explore a new relationship with Russia... so what? If the US and Russia can find some common ground on international affairs, how is that a bad thing?

The status quo is that there is never-ending turmoil and carnage in the middle east and the Ukraine. Is that preferable to a different path?

RT is of course state sponsored and biased. Most of the western media is biased. The BBC is "state-sponsored". However, there is a lot of stuff I would never have been aware of without RT - regardless of it's bias. It's giving a Russian view. If people are so secure in their belief that western media is unbiased then what have you got to be afraid of by seeing an alternative view?

Western media is biased also. You only have to look at the differences between Fox and the likes of CNN and MSNBC on domestic US affairs... without even taking international affairs into consideration...

Vested interests are everywhere Moxie... this is nothing new, it's just more obvious now the Internet has opened our eyes to a whole bunch of different viewpoints.
 

Moxie

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Excellent post, Mrzz, and I take a lot of your points. Particularly that it is rather laughable and ironic to talk about fiddling elections from the POV of a South American. Believe me, when George W. Bush was awarded the presidency by the Supreme Court in 2000, we could all see how FL was likely jiggered in a few different ways. In a state where the candidate's brother was the governor, and his father had been the head of the CIA...who better to know how to rig an election? We are not naive to this.

However, if you think if Russia was just using social media to influence the US elections...who's being naive, now? We know it was also selective leaks, and there could have been electronic fixing of the numbers...they were very close in key states. It wouldn't have taken much.

As to freedom of the press v. state-sponsored media, there are differences. There's the BBC in Britain. There's NPR and PBS in the US. But Putin has done a lot of work to dismantle the free press in Russia and go back to the old Pravda days. Maybe you don't believe that and think that they are all filled with journalists with the same esprit de liberté, one as the other. But there is a lot of evidence that the Russian ones are under a lot more scrutiny and strong-arm.
 

Moxie

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Moxie, "meddling" or "influencing" elections is par for the course... it's Geopolitics 101. Of course, there are different degress of "meddling"... from sponsoring military coups to putting out propaganda.

The United States is the biggest culprit by a country mile.

As for Flynn, yes he probably had to go... he lied about it, but "back-channelling" is nothing new. He was stupid getting so directly involved rather than using a proxy.

I roll my eyes at the Russian "story" that some Americans seem to be clinging onto for dear life... so Trump wants to explore a new relationship with Russia... so what? If the US and Russia can find some common ground on international affairs, how is that a bad thing?

The status quo is that there is never-ending turmoil and carnage in the middle east and the Ukraine. Is that preferable to a different path?

RT is of course state sponsored and biased. Most of the western media is biased. The BBC is "state-sponsored". However, there is a lot of stuff I would never have been aware of without RT - regardless of it's bias. It's giving a Russian view. If people are so secure in their belief that western media is unbiased then what have you got to be afraid of by seeing an alternative view?

Western media is biased also. You only have to look at the differences between Fox and the likes of CNN and MSNBC on domestic US affairs... without even taking international affairs into consideration...

Vested interests are everywhere Moxie... this is nothing new, it's just more obvious now the Internet has opened our eyes to a whole bunch of different viewpoints.

I can be open to the idea that a different way of dealing with Russia and the Middle East might not be bad. Frankly, a lot of the old ways are so stale and cemented, that it could be good to break things up a bit. I do think Putin is dangerous, though, and should be treated carefully. (The Middle East is an entire other conversation.)

You'll see that we crossed posts, and said some of the same things, though perhaps to different ends.

Anyway, we're not "clinging to the Russia story for dear life." Here we believe it is something to get to the bottom of, and there are a lot of folks who want to. The main concern is what does Trump owe Russia, and part of the answer is likely in his tax returns, which he won't release. Another part might be in his potentially nasty sex life, though I doubt even a golden shower would get him impeached. It's not just a question of Russia sticking its nose in. It starts to be the compilation of things that comes back to: does Russia have something over Trump? That's all we want to know. And for the people that come from the smoke=fire camp, it's interesting how incurious they are at the moment. (By which I mean US Republicans.)
 

britbox

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I can be open to the idea that a different way of dealing with Russia and the Middle East might not be bad. Frankly, a lot of the old ways are so stale and cemented, that it could be good to break things up a bit. I do think Putin is dangerous, though, and should be treated carefully. (The Middle East is an entire other conversation.)

You'll see that we crossed posts, and said some of the same things, though perhaps to different ends.

Anyway, we're not "clinging to the Russia story for dear life." Here we believe it is something to get to the bottom of, and there are a lot of folks who want to. The main concern is what does Trump owe Russia, and part of the answer is likely in his tax returns, which he won't release. Another part might be in his potentially nasty sex life, though I doubt even a golden shower would get him impeached. It's not just a question of Russia sticking its nose in. It starts to be the compilation of things that comes back to: does Russia have something over Trump? That's all we want to know. And for the people that come from the smoke=fire camp, it's interesting how incurious they are at the moment. (By which I mean US Republicans.)

Well, that (the bolded part) is the million dollar question... but I think the default position should be no rather than yes, until anything comes up... let people investigate without the constant innuendo... I mean - actually let Trump try and govern. He was given a mandate by your fellow citizens. Protest after Protest.... Story after Story...Constant bashing from media, celebs and anybody remotely on the left... doesn't this get tiresome? Let him get on with it and judge him going forward.
 

Vince Evert

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France today has warned Russia about meddling in its elections. In the US, it is generally believe that Russian involved itself, and there are calls for a Special Prosecutor to investigate. Additionally, Russia is trying hard to have an internet propaganda presence, mainly in Sputnik News and Russia Today, which get quoted here often, and are state-sponsored. I'm wondering what folks here think about this. How effective can this be, and what does the current Russian push for influence mean for Europe and the US?

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-cyber-idUSKBN15U22U

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sputnik_(news_agency)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RT_(TV_network)
Moxie, even if the Russian President is, what is it especially that makes you feel nervous or even afraid ?
Explain your fears. An 'internet propaganda' Aw Mox. I look in the Sputnik website and usually I find them to be fair.
 

Vince Evert

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Well, that (the bolded part) is the million dollar question... but I think the default position should be no rather than yes, until anything comes up... let people investigate without the constant innuendo... I mean - actually let Trump try and govern. He was given a mandate by your fellow citizens. Protest after Protest.... Story after Story...Constant bashing from media, celebs and anybody remotely on the left... doesn't this get tiresome? Let him get on with it and judge him going forward.

You would think. Even the Boss was weighing in during his recent concert tour in Oz. At least Bruce was only reminding us of the U.S. migrants policies and constitution so he was mild protests compared to De Niro or Streep's to name but two.
 

Moxie

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Well, that (the bolded part) is the million dollar question... but I think the default position should be no rather than yes, until anything comes up... let people investigate without the constant innuendo... I mean - actually let Trump try and govern. He was given a mandate by your fellow citizens. Protest after Protest.... Story after Story...Constant bashing from media, celebs and anybody remotely on the left... doesn't this get tiresome? Let him get on with it and judge him going forward.
Be cautious about what you call his "mandate." He didn't win the popular vote, so there is more than 50% of the country that doesn't support his message or his agenda. And there is a strong feeling that his agenda comes from the white supremacist movement. "Alt-right," if you like, but I don't. I say call it what it is. And he's not a Republican, either, so everyone is wary of where this renegade will go next. No, the resistance doesn't get tiresome. If he's going to be as radical and freewheeling as he apparently wants to be, then we, the people, have a right to protest. So far, we the protestors and the judiciary are the best checks on him. And yes, the bolded part is the million dollar question...and it deserves to be answered, as there are doubts.
 

Moxie

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Moxie, even if the Russian President is, what is it especially that makes you feel nervous or even afraid ?
Explain your fears. An 'internet propaganda' Aw Mox. I look in the Sputnik website and usually I find them to be fair.
That Putin has set himself up as somewhere on the spectrum of oligarch/dictator. That's what makes me afraid. And what problem do you have with the notion of "internet propaganda?" Surely it exists. As to Sputnik news, I'm sure you find things to read, but you do need to take such things with a grain of salt, no matter how genial they seem. I like to pick up Epoch Times here, which is Chinese-centric and anti-mainland China for the western market. They have great recipes, restaurant write-ups, health articles, etc. But beware their front page..it tries to be bland and genial, but you know where it's coming from. Likewise RT and Sputnik and Breitbart. Like a broken clock, they might hit openmindedness on the head occasionally, but that's not where they're coming from and you should approach with caution. Remember they are also being written by underpaid people that are barely above the grade of bloggers. Call me old-fashioned, but I think the caliber of journalism that you get at the Guardian, NYTimes, Washington Post, Economist, WSJ, El País, La Stampa, La Vanguardia, the Globe and Mail is of a higher grade, and more editorially scrutinized than these fly-by-night papers that pass for journalism. Buyer beware, RZ.
 

britbox

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Be cautious about what you call his "mandate." He didn't win the popular vote, so there is more than 50% of the country that doesn't support his message or his agenda. And there is a strong feeling that his agenda comes from the white supremacist movement. "Alt-right," if you like, but I don't. I say call it what it is. And he's not a Republican, either, so everyone is wary of where this renegade will go next. No, the resistance doesn't get tiresome. If he's going to be as radical and freewheeling as he apparently wants to be, then we, the people, have a right to protest. So far, we the protestors and the judiciary are the best checks on him. And yes, the bolded part is the million dollar question...and it deserves to be answered, as there are doubts.

:facepalm: He has a full mandate. 306 - 232 in the electoral college is extensive. The popular vote is irrelevant. If it was based on popular voting, the whole electioneering process would have been carried out differently. Trump wouldn't have just concentrated on those swing states. Change the system... you'll change the electioneering and also voting patterns too.

You were protesting before he even took office... and he was voted in because he came with ideas outside of the typical political establishment.. and is clearly prepared to implement them.
 

Moxie

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:facepalm: He has a full mandate. 306 - 232 in the electoral college is extensive. The popular vote is irrelevant. If it was based on popular voting, the whole electioneering process would have been carried out differently. Trump wouldn't have just concentrated on those swing states. Change the system... you'll change the electioneering and also voting patterns too.

You were protesting before he even took office... and he was voted in because he came with ideas outside of the typical political establishment.. and is clearly prepared to implement them.
Maybe you and I understand "mandate" differently. The electoral college is one thing, but a mandate has to do with how many people back your agenda. Trump lost the popular vote by 48.2% for Hillary v 46.1% for Trump. That is not a mandate in my understanding of it. Sure, the electoral collage is how we determine presidents, but it's not how we define majority opinion. Would you like to redefine mandate for me? And I'm not sure what you mean by saying that I was protesting before he even took office. I hit the streets on 1-21-17. You seem to be taking the US elections rather personally, btw.