Reilly Opelka

[secrettennisjunkie]

I watched the end of the 3rd plus all of the 4th and 5th sets of the Goffin-Opelka match and came away impressed with the teen tower. I like that he served and volleyed quite a bit although his volleying needs work. Obviously he gets a lot of comparison to Isner but I think he has potential to be better. He doesn't run around his backhand to rip an inside out forehand like most Americans and instead rips a 2-hander crosscourt. He's still a bit wild but can rally pretty well for his size and actually won a 20-stroke rally vs Goffin. I tell you he hits a harder forehand than just about anyone on tour. If he gets a sitter, just look out.

I thought for a moment he was actually going to beat Goffin as the Belgian couldn't buy a 1st serve in the middle part of the 2nd set but Opelka couldn't get enough returns in play and then fell apart at the very end.

Maybe I'm drinking the Koolaid on this guy but I can't imagine him failing to get into the top 100 if not top 50 by the end of the year, and he's certainly going to be a threat at Wimbledon. And actually he may not be done growing, though not sure if that's good or bad.

 

[El Dude]

First off, good to see you again, stj. Nice take on Opelka - yeah, he did very well vs. Goffin, a top 20 player. Actually, there have been some impressive, promising performances from a variety of young players.

Anyhow, with Fritz, Opelka, Tiafoe, Kozlov, Mmoh, Rubin, Paul, etc, American tennis is looking up...a bit, at least.

 

[herios]

Thanks for explaining the technical aspects of this player who I have yet to see. It is good that he has such abilities beside his height / serve, if he develops into a Isner redux, he will be able to achieve good results and has time on his hand.
Let's not forget that Isner started late the pro career, after finishing college and that did not prevent him to have a pretty good career, being a fixture in the top 20 for years, dipping into the top 10 a few times.
The main concern for Opelka will be the injuries. he already missed a good chunk of his first year for a foot injury. he needs to get stronger so he can play the whole calendar, then his ranking will improve faster.

 

[herios]

In one of the matches commented by Gilbert, he predicted that Opelka has the highest ceiling potential among the young USA players, top 5, if he will stay injury free. I found that very interesting, even if he will be proven wrong.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

The only fragment of Opelka I saw was a service game he lost due to which he lost the whole match. That is a very bad sample to base a judgement of him. But, I did not get a good feeling after seeing that. He lost that game at love.

 

[El Dude]

Interesting and maybe true. None of the Americans look like surefire elites. I thought Fritz might be, and he is still only just 19, but I'm starting to question his fire; he's about to fall out of the top 100. Tiafoe has mechanical issues. Kozlov looks more like a future top 40ish guy. Donaldson may never reach the top 50. Too soon to say about Mmoh.

Here are the Americans age 21 and younger, with current live ranking, in the top 200ish:

97. Tiafoe (19)
98. Fritz (19.2)
100. Donaldson (20.2)
119. Escobedo (20.5)
120. Kozlov (18.9)
184. Opelka (19.4)
194. Mmoh (19)
201. Rubin (20.9)

It will be fun to see which of these guys separate themselves from the pack. I suspect we'll know a lot more by year's end, with maybe a couple of them in the top 50 and most in the top 100. Escobedo has been playing really well of late and could be ready to jump into the top 100. Mmoh is slowly but surely advancing.

 

[herios]

Interesting and maybe true. None of the Americans look like surefire elites. I thought Fritz might be, and he is still only just 19, but I'm starting to question his fire; he's about to fall out of the top 100. Tiafoe has mechanical issues. Kozlov looks more like a future top 40ish guy. Donaldson may never reach the top 50. Too soon to say about Mmoh.

Here are the Americans age 21 and younger, with current live ranking, in the top 200ish:

97. Tiafoe (19)
98. Fritz (19.2)
100. Donaldson (20.2)
119. Escobedo (20.5)
120. Kozlov (18.9)
184. Opelka (19.4)
194. Mmoh (19)
201. Rubin (20.9)

It will be fun to see which of these guys separate themselves from the pack. I suspect we'll know a lot more by year's end, with maybe a couple of them in the top 50 and most in the top 100. Escobedo has been playing really well of late and could be ready to jump into the top 100. Mmoh is slowly but surely advancing.

I also like to speculate like you, but I find usually your expectation way too optimistic regarding the younger crowd.
I do not see any of them in the top 50 by year end.

 

[secrettennisjunkie]

I don't disagree with Gilbert. After watching Opelka, I certainly think he has the upside. He definitely has the big weapon around which to build his game and if his movement and backhand can become serviceable I could see him reaching the top 5. Fritz has really plateaued and will be back on the challenger circuit soon if he doesn't defend points at Memphis and Acapulco.

 

[El Dude]

Interesting and maybe true. None of the Americans look like surefire elites. I thought Fritz might be, and he is still only just 19, but I'm starting to question his fire; he's about to fall out of the top 100. Tiafoe has mechanical issues. Kozlov looks more like a future top 40ish guy. Donaldson may never reach the top 50. Too soon to say about Mmoh.

Here are the Americans age 21 and younger, with current live ranking, in the top 200ish:

97. Tiafoe (19)
98. Fritz (19.2)
100. Donaldson (20.2)
119. Escobedo (20.5)
120. Kozlov (18.9)
184. Opelka (19.4)
194. Mmoh (19)
201. Rubin (20.9)

It will be fun to see which of these guys separate themselves from the pack. I suspect we'll know a lot more by year's end, with maybe a couple of them in the top 50 and most in the top 100. Escobedo has been playing really well of late and could be ready to jump into the top 100. Mmoh is slowly but surely advancing.

I also like to speculate like you, but I find usually your expectation way too optimistic regarding the younger crowd.
I do not see any of them in the top 50 by year end.

Yeah, I'm an optimist But to be fair, I said "maybe a couple" which isn't quite predicting that it will happen but that it could. But I do think that "most" (which in the above list is at least five of the eight) will probably be in the top 100.