RED ALERT!

[Kieran]

Rafa has fallen in the quarters of both Monte Carlo and Barcelona. Is this a true crisis?

Or is he glad of the rest? :snigger

Personally, I always have faith in Rafa and there's plenty of time before Paris to get this right, but the urgency is absent, and he's drifting away from matches in a way he never did. The concentration is not so tight.

His hitting isn't clean and he has no consistency at all on his serve.

The clay season is officially wide open...

 

[brokenshoelace]

It's so easy to tell when Nadal isn't playing well. It's also easy to tell when he's just not playing well but could snap out of it at any moment, and when he's low on confidence and really struggling. In this case, it is clearly the latter, and I've been preaching this for a while now.

No amount of false hopes due to a few decent performances against overmatched competition is going to change that. He's not moving well, he's serving terrible, and he's not hitting the ball well. The main problem, is the first two factors I mentioned. For Nadal, especially on clay, movement is vital. If he's moving well, he's playing well. Period.

Which brings me to the second point, and that's the serve. When you're not moving as well as you normally do, and not hitting the ball cleanly, the serve can be used to compensate. Yes, Nadal never had a dominating serve, and yet much of his run last year was in part due to solid serving, which allowed him to relax and play his game. So the serve for Nadal is not so much about what damage he can do with that particular shot, but the effect it has on the rest of this game. In this case, he's just not confident he can hold serve, since he's serving poorly and playing bad from behind the baseline, so he's rattled and not thinking clearly on the court. Hence more unforced errors, short balls, a lack in confidence to go for the lines, etc...

Luckily, there are two Masters 1000 events leading up to the FO still, so there's time to recover, but he needs to get his $hit together quickly.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

Here is the thing though: Up ahead is Madrid, probably Rafa's least favorite tournament on clay of any color, and his least successful. What does it do to his confidence to go there and lose to someone early again, and by early, I mean quarters or semis?

This happened to Roger too...the aura of invincibility disappeared and people started taking shots at him. That hurt him mentally. I am not sure Rafa is quiet there yet, but he better get his feces together, like BS said above.

 

[Kieran]

Good post, buddy! He's gone into a slump and it's like an infection that's hitting every bone in his body. The serve is back to the old days, where I just don't trust him to hold. He doesn't look at all alert in his movement and if anything, he reminds of players I've seen, who've had enough and are going through the motions and can't summon the energy or verve to maintain their level. It's particularly worrying cos this time it's clay.

If there's a consolation, a strange one, it's that this had eventually to happen, and that's no consolation at all...

 

[El Dude]

I would think the concerns about Rafa are exemplified by who he lost to - Ferrer and Almagro - two players whom he has totally dominated in years past. And on clay to boot (not that Ferrer and Almagro are clay slouches). It isn't like he lost to a random player (Darcis, Rosol) who played the match of his life on a surface that troubles Nadal.

I honestly wonder how much he wants it right now. One thing we fans don't question enough is how hard it is for a great player to dominate for years on end; I think it is all too easy for us to ignore how hard it is to bring your top form match after match, year after year. Rafa just had an amazing comeback last year so it's hard to maintain that level. I've said before, and will say again, I think Rafa does best when he's not on top, when he has the challenge of getting to the top.

This is Rafa's third reign as #1. The first time lasted for 46 weeks, the second for 56. Novak's two reigns have been 53 and 48, so very similar. Rafa has 4,000 points to defend in May, then another 4,000 in August. Novak has a lot less, especially in May (I think about 800) but also in August (<2,000). The point being, Rafa's 29-week reign could very well end sometime either after Roland Garros or after the US Open, depending upon how things pan out, which would make his third reign somewhere in the 35-50 week range, similar to his previous two reigns.

Of course it all remains to be seen, but it's interesting to see some of the possibilities and prior trajectories.

 

[secrettennisjunkie]

The especially surprising thing is that he's lost to two guys that he owns, Ferrer and Almagro.

 

[herios]

I would think the concerns about Rafa are exemplified by who he lost to - Ferrer and Almagro - two players whom he has totally dominated in years past. And on clay to boot (not that Ferrer and Almagro are clay slouches). It isn't like he lost to a random player (Darcis, Rosol) who played the match of his life on a surface that troubles Nadal.

I honestly wonder how much he wants it right now. One thing we fans don't question enough is how hard it is for a great player to dominate for years on end; I think it is all too easy for us to ignore how hard it is to bring your top form match after match, year after year. Rafa just had an amazing comeback last year so it's hard to maintain that level. I've said before, and will say again, I think Rafa does best when he's not on top, when he has the challenge of getting to the top.

This is Rafa's third reign as #1. The first time lasted for 46 weeks, the second for 56. Novak's two reigns have been 53 and 48, so very similar. Rafa has 4,000 points to defend in May, then another 4,000 in August. Novak has a lot less, especially in May (I think about 800) but also in August (<2,000). The point being, Rafa's 29-week reign could very well end sometime either after Roland Garros or after the US Open, depending upon how things pan out, which would make his third reign somewhere in the 35-50 week range, similar to his previous two reigns.

Of course it all remains to be seen, but it's interesting to see some of the possibilities and prior trajectories.

I will keep it short. I think Rafa arrived to that stage when he becomes inconsistent. Was that 2010 for Roger?
From here on, he will be more times upset than in the last 9 years or so.

 

[shawnbm]

Wasn't is six years ago when Roger was 27 (or almost) that losses that were unexpected started popping up--Canas, not making final of AO, losing SW19 to Nadal? There were other losses and 2008 was a definite step down from 2007. Still, Federer ended up adding another four majors after 2008 US Open, so that bodes well for Rafa. It may be a red alert if for no other reason he is losing early on clay against historically inferior players.

 

[Asmodeus]

It's the beginning of the end! That's my vote.

 

[herios]

Wasn't is six years ago when Roger was 27 (or almost) that losses that were unexpected started popping up--Canas, not making final of AO, losing SW19 to Nadal? There were other losses and 2008 was a definite step down from 2007. Still, Federer ended up adding another four majors after 2008 US Open, so that bodes well for Rafa. It may be a red alert if for no other reason he is losing early on clay against historically inferior players.

Check your memory Buddy!
Roger was in 2007 still winning 3 slams. He lost to Canas, so what?
This is a lot more like 2010, when Roger's string of SF in slams came to an end. And all this was post his AO slam win. So how many slams Roger won ever since? 1

 

[herios]

It's the beginning of the end! That's my vote.

I agree. He had already 3 unusual exits: IW, MC and Barca.

 

[Kieran]

Wasn't is six years ago when Roger was 27 (or almost) that losses that were unexpected started popping up--Canas, not making final of AO, losing SW19 to Nadal? There were other losses and 2008 was a definite step down from 2007. Still, Federer ended up adding another four majors after 2008 US Open, so that bodes well for Rafa. It may be a red alert if for no other reason he is losing early on clay against historically inferior players.

Check your memory Buddy!
Roger was in 2007 still winning 3 slams. He lost to Canas, so what?
This is a lot more like 2010, when Roger's string of SF in slams came to an end. And all this was post his AO slam win. So how many slams Roger won ever since? 1

Fortunately, it doesn't work like this, and Rafa and Roger are two totally different creatures...

 

[huntingyou]

Everything that has a beginning has an end......

Rafa should go fishing during Madrid and comeback ready for Rome.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

yep..go fishing with lots of men. forget tennis in Madrid, he not like it anyway.

 

[Kieran]

Everything that has a beginning has an end......

Rafa should go fishing during Madrid and comeback ready for Rome.

That's actually not so bad an idea. I know, huge points to defend but I hope he's not bean counting at the minute, I hope he's looking at a bigger picture. Maybe break the rut and the hype and the routine and try something that surprises everybody, including himself, take the heat off, enjoy, and then burst back in full of vengeance...

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

he needs to arrest the decline otherwise he will be losing more on clay, then his confidence will be zero AND he will be leaving his favourite part of the season.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Fortunately, it doesn't work like this, and Rafa and Roger are two totally different creatures...

Roger's cause of bad results was a decline in physical form and fitness caused by
aging body.

However, I believe that Rafa's cause of bad results is due to concentration issues
Of course, he is playing bad, not moving well etc. But, the cause of it is not physical
issues at all. Something is bothering him mentally. What is it and can anything be
done about it? That should be the question. It is not the case of a general decline
in Rafa's game. I think whatever are the mental issues that he is dealing with is
resolved, his game will surely get back to original level.

In 2009 when Rafa lost to JMDP in March he admitted that it is due to concentration
issues and did not explain further. Later, we found that it is a legitimate thing as he had
anxiety caused by his parents' separation.

I am wondering as to whether everything is fine between Xisca and him?
Are there any spaniards around here with any inside info? If not Xisca issue,
are there any other mental issues bothering him?

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

^^maybe she is his beard. his head could be filled with closet gay anxiety and its taking him ovahhhh.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

he just lost a tennis match..why does it have to be such a big deal ?..rafa prob be ok after a bit of fishing.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Everything that has a beginning has an end......

Rafa should go fishing during Madrid and comeback ready for Rome.

That's actually not so bad an idea. I know, huge points to defend but I hope he's not bean counting at the minute, I hope he's looking at a bigger picture. Maybe break the rut and the hype and the routine and try something that surprises everybody, including himself, take the heat off, enjoy, and then burst back in full of vengeance...

No, No I think it would be a bad idea.

Rafa is a confidence player. He needs wins and titles before going into RG.
If he had won Barcelona, it may be OK to skip Madrid. Not at this time.

Given that he went out in QFs on both occassions, he has only played a
grand total of six matches in the last two weeks. So, to get his form and
confidence back, he must play both Madrid and Rome.

Besidess he has a week of gap now to enjoy some fishing Mallorca.