Rafael Nadal: Discuss His Future Scheduling Strategy

[masterclass]

There is no doubt that so far in 2013, following his return from a 7 month absence, Nadal has had the right plan to achieve success and keep his knees in good shape. Out of 13 tournaments played this year, he has won 10 titles including 2 majors and 5 Masters 1000 events. He was a finalist in 2 of the others, and dismissed in the 1st round at Wimbledon after his clay campaign, which culminated in his 8th title at Roland Garros.

After the previous year's marathon losing battle to Novak Djokovic on the medium slow Plexicushion hard courts of Rod Laver Arena at the Australian Open, Nadal skipped the Australian Open this year to start his return on the friendly clay courts on the Golden Swing (South and Central America). He also skipped the slowish Laykold courts of Miami after winning the preceding Indian Wells Masters.

In the somewhat faster North American DecoTurf hard court season this year, Nadal has taken a more aggressive approach to his game and has obviously generally tried to play not as far back and take control of points earlier and finish points sooner than he has in the past.

In the past, most, if not all of his injury problems have started with the hard court events early in the year. In many cases he has been able to play in spite of them through the clay season but sometimes has not being able to continue at all, or has played at a reduced level afterwards.

What should Nadal's general scheduling strategy be to ensure his best chances of success and longevity?

Here are some questions to think about for this discussion:

Should he again skip the Australian Open and other early hard court events, and start with the Golden Swing?

Should he skip Miami again? Should he avoid playing back to back Master's events?

Should he avoid playing and practice on hard courts as much as possible?

Should he reduce his clay court season a bit so he may be more fresh at Wimbledon?

Should he play a reduced schedule after the US Open, with perhaps only a warm up tournament prior to the Year End Championships - World Tour Finals?

Or should he play as much as he can all year and hope nothing bad happens?

Have a good discussion. We may be able to determine whose opinions were more on target only once the future is past.

Respectfully,
masterclass

 

[NADAL2005RG]

Since his doctor discovered the 7 month break had left Nadal with 100% healthy tendons (according to all tests) for the first time in many, many years, his schedule will be very, very busy. I remember Nadal saying when he returned this year that his "bad knee" is now actually better than his "good knee". And it got better and better every month as the recovery pains subsided. By Montreal he was wearing no bandages. Things are really not going according to plan for Nadal's detractors....

 

[Kieran]

There has to be common sense. For instance, Oz is important but playing Davis Cup right now? Why?

Also, he's entered Basle. Ditch it. Listen to the knees and chase the big ones, while playing enough to actually have a shot at them. His priorities should be the WTF and Australia and he doesn't have to plug his schedule full of stuff for either.

Then rest after this and take stock again...

 

[masterclass]

Since his doctor discovered the 7 month break had left Nadal with 100% healthy tendons (according to all tests) for the first time in many, many years, his schedule will be very, very busy. I remember Nadal saying when he returned this year that his "bad knee" is now actually better than his "good knee". And it got better and better every month as the recovery pains subsided. By Montreal he was wearing no bandages.

Yes, yes, his doctors say a lot of things. We all saw the reports and how they continuously (at least 3 times by my count) revealed different diagnoses of his knee over the course of his 7 month layoff.

But the question is, is what strategy should he use to keep himself healthy or close to it, and avoid more forced layoffs?

The man has a history of injuries forcing him to miss playing many major events during his career.

2003 - Missed Roland Garros with right elbow injury

2004 - Missed Roland Garros and Wimbledon with left ankle stress fracture injury suffered at Estoril against Gasquet (withdrew next round)

2005 - No majors missed.

2006 - Missed Australian Open with a foot injury

2007 - no majors missed, but battled through knee problems in latter half.

2008 - no majors missed, but suffered knee injury (tendonitis) at Paris-Bercy late in the year and missed Masters Cup

2009 - suffered knee problems in Rotterdam, missed Dubai. Lost at Roland Garros. Missed Queens and Wimbledon citing tendonitis in both knees.

2010 - retired to Andy Murray in QF of Australian Open (knee problems)

2011 - lost in straight sets to David Ferrer in QF of Australian Open having apparent hamstring injury.

2012 - withdrew prior to Miami SF due to knee problems. Lost in the 2nd round of Wimbledon to Rosol and subsequently withdrew from each tournament including Olympics and the US Open as the year progressed due to knee problems (various diagnoses reports: July - tendonitis, August - Hoffa's syndrome, September = partial tear of patellar tendon).

2013 - missed Australian Open due to not being recovered sufficiently from knee injury to play well after stomach virus caused him to miss prep events

2014+ - ?

Respectfully,
masterclass

 

[NADAL2005RG]

Whatever the opinions are here, the one thing we know for sure is that Nadal knows a lot better than us. I doubt any of us advised for him to take 7 months off (preceded by an 8 slam stretch - from 2010 RG - 2012 AO - where he made 7 slam finals), but he did, and the results here in 2013 are astonishing. A genius on and off the court. That's why he's the only man ever to win slams for 9 years in a row, despite fierce skepticism concerning his longevity.

 

[Kieran]

Just to be clear, he didn't "decide" to take 7 months off. He was forced into downtime and it happened to last 7 months. He wanted to be back for Oz but a fever scalded his practice time and he knew he wouldn't be ready.

There's no great genius master plan here. His absence was forced upon him by physical necessity. There are some of us who agree that his scheduling throughout his career has been distinguished by the absence of genius, or even common sense...

 

[brokenshoelace]

Should he again skip the Australian Open and other early hard court events, and start with the Golden Swing? No, at least as far as skipping the AO goes.

Should he skip Miami again? Should he avoid playing back to back Master's events? Yes for skipping Miami. Not sure about the other won.

Should he avoid playing and practice on hard courts as much as possible? Easier said than done. You're playing a hard court tournament, you're going to practice on hards. You're not going to keep transitioning back and forth from hards into clay on a day-to-day basis.

Should he reduce his clay court season a bit so he may be more fresh at Wimbledon? Yes.

Should he play a reduced schedule after the US Open, with perhaps only a warm up tournament prior to the Year End Championships - World Tour Finals? Yes.

Or should he play as much as he can all year and hope nothing bad happens? No.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Just to be clear, he didn't "decide" to take 7 months off. He was forced into downtime and it happened to last 7 months. He wanted to be back for Oz but a fever scalded his practice time and he knew he wouldn't be ready.

There's no great genius master plan here. His absence was forced upon him by physical necessity. There are some of us who agree that his scheduling throughout his career has been distinguished by the absence of genius, or even common sense...

Dude, don't even bother. I literally made the exact same post (at least as far as your opening sentence goes) in another thread, and yet he still insists that he "decided" to take 7 months off.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Since his doctor discovered the 7 month break had left Nadal with 100% healthy tendons (according to all tests) for the first time in many, many years, his schedule will be very, very busy. I remember Nadal saying when he returned this year that his "bad knee" is now actually better than his "good knee". And it got better and better every month as the recovery pains subsided. By Montreal he was wearing no bandages. Things are really not going according to plan for Nadal's detractors....

Can you please provide a source to your claim that Nadal's knee is 100% healthy according to his doctor? Especially since it contradicts Nadal's pain in South America and later, Barcelona.

 

[Kieran]

Should he avoid playing and practice on hard courts as much as possible? Easier said than done. You're playing a hard court tournament, you're going to practice on hards. You're not going to keep transitioning back and forth from hards into clay on a day-to-day basis.

I saw an interview from during the Open and he said he practices less hours on hards now than he used to, which makes sense.

Also, I think that some other fans need to get past the idea that any play on clay is automatically good, and indeed balming for his knees. I think he has to factor in recovery time on all surfaces, including clay, so I'd prefer he tones it down there and leaves something for Wimbledon. If this year has shown anything it's that his season doesn't have to be greedily centred on the dirt...

 

[NADAL2005RG]

Since his doctor discovered the 7 month break had left Nadal with 100% healthy tendons (according to all tests) for the first time in many, many years, his schedule will be very, very busy. I remember Nadal saying when he returned this year that his "bad knee" is now actually better than his "good knee". And it got better and better every month as the recovery pains subsided. By Montreal he was wearing no bandages. Things are really not going according to plan for Nadal's detractors....

Can you please provide a source to your claim that Nadal's knee is 100% healthy according to his doctor? Especially since it contradicts Nadal's pain in South America and later, Barcelona.

http://www.nadalnews.com/2013/02/07/lequipe-interview-no-panic/#.UjUzcn9FYbA

I’m not afraid because I know in what state my knee is in. Since three weeks, all the tests I have undergone have shown perfect results. The truth is that my left knee is in fantastic shape compared with the other one (laughs). I know now that if I run, I won’t risk torn tendons. That’s “importantissime”. The doctors have promised me that. So, it’s alright, no anxiety. Even if the tendon still gives me pain…

See, the tests they did in February showed his tendons were in absolutely perfect health. It was advised that he expect recovery pain however for a while, which he did (he limped when he won Indian Wells). The recovery pain gradually went away, just as the doctors expected.

Regarding Nadal taking 7 months off.....I don't have a link but it is a fact that Toni said (just after Wimbledon 2012) from now on Nadal will only play when 100%, and that he would no longer rely on painkillers. So the plan from July 2012 was to withdraw from every event until his doctors told him his tendons were 100% healthy. That's why Nadal would later say that withdrawing from the Olympics was the most difficult thing he's ever done (because he knew he could play, but was sticking to his 100% rule). That plan took him through 7 months of inactivity.

 

[isabelle]

Did you notice that he'll play double in DC (with Marc Lopez) this afternoon ??
If his knees aren't painful after that..I can understand him to play singles but doubles.....not very careful after such a long season, he's not a reasonnable guy at all. Tony asked him to take care of his body but he has always the same "extreme" attitude...he plays till the pain is too strong to stand then he has another long injury pause..don't understand why he brutalizes his body like that, he's a kind of masochist

 

[Front242]

There has to be common sense. For instance, Oz is important but playing Davis Cup right now? Why?

Also, he's entered Basle. Ditch it. Listen to the knees and chase the big ones, while playing enough to actually have a shot at them. His priorities should be the WTF and Australia and he doesn't have to plug his schedule full of stuff for either.

Then rest after this and take stock again...

Nah. Playing Basel is a great move in advance of the WTF as it's the most similar surface to the WTF courts. You can bet he's getting a very hefty appearance fee too since it's first time playing there afaik. And most importantly he'll have some practice against top indoor players at Basel with Del Potro defending and Roger playing there too and hopefully trying his best to redeem his loss there last year.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

For 2014, Rafa should play AO, but skip pre-AO warm up tournaments. Instead,
he should get in few practice matches at AAMI Classic.

Then in February, he should play ATP 250 in Buenos Aries, Argentina and
ATP 500 in Rio Degenero, Brazil. Note that he has not played in either one of
these cities and so he might also rack in some appearance fees. Besides,
both being on clay will be soft on his knees.

He should then play IW and skip Miami. Thus get 4 weeks of continuous
rest.

He should go full swing on European Clay as usual. Play Monte Carlo,
Barcelona, Madrid, Rome and FO.

Then play Halle and Wimby. Then, get 4 weeks of continuous rest.

Then do Toronto, Cincy and USO.

At this time, if he is in a dominating or comfortable position, skip
Asian Circuit completely (or just play Shanghai).

Then play Basel and Paris (skip Paris, if played in Shanghai).
Finish the year with WTF.

Throw in one or two (but not all four) Davis Cup appearances too
so that qualifying for Olympics (in clay) does not become a problem later.

With this schedule, he would have played exactly two ATP 250s
and four ATP 500s (including Monte Carlo 1000) and six ATP 1000s
and Four GSs.

At his age, he is still in prime and he should try to play a full
schedule like above especially with knees appearing ok.

 

[Front242]

Skipping the AO would be madness. He's in the best form currently of all the top players and it's a shot at a 2nd career slam. That in itself should be a a huge reason to not skip it.

 

[Front242]

In short, no player who isn't injured should skip any slam event as they're what history remembers most. And definitely a guy who is gonna be number one again soon and playing the best of all the current top players should not skip any slam.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Skipping the AO would be madness. He's in the best form currently of all the top players and it's a shot at a 2nd career slam. That in itself should be a a huge reason to not skip it.

I don't understand how skipping the Australian Open is something people are willing to entertain. It's the beginning of the season and players are fresh/rested. Unless you have an injury, there's no reason to skip it at all. He has all the time in the world to take some time off after the Australian Open if he needs to (he really doesn't need to play anything until Indian Wells, giving him about 6 weeks of rest). Plus, as you mentioned, no matter what happens in the indoor season, Nadal will come into the AO with a lot of momentum and should be feeling very confident about the way he's been playing on hards. Skipping it would be idiotic. In fairness, I doubt the idea even occurred to Nadal.

 

[Kieran]

Even to Nadal, eh? Not even he'd be so stoopah! :laydownlaughing

Good point on Basle, Front, but I hope making more money isn't a feature of his planning. Slams, slams and slams. That's what he should be about for the next 24 months, and then after this just focus on the slams...

 

[huntingyou]

masterclass lacks class when it comes to Rafa "In the somewhat faster North American DecoTurf hard court season this year"

It never fails, Rafa dominates a surface and it suddenly becomes slow or now somewhat fast. Most people have no idea what a fast court actually is. Both Montreal and Cinci are really fast for outdoors hards and the UO it's the same it has ever been since Roggy won 5 consecutive Slams on it.

Anyways, when it come to schedule, Rafa is a moron and he will make the same mistakes that took him out of the game in 2009 and 2012. That guy is not that brilliant or loves money too much...take your pick.

Rafa schedule should look like this:

AO
Golden Swing (three events)

skip both IW and Miami (slow courts......no point when the next slam is RG-SW19)

MC-Barcelona
Skip Madrid
Rome

RG-Queens-SW19 (by skipping both IW-Miami and Madrid, his knees should be in better shape to pull off the double)

Canada
skip cinci IF he goes deep in Canada
UO

skip Shangai
Paris
WTF

The aim is to maximize his chances at the Slams, specially at RG-SW19 where another double would elevate Rafa as the greatest that ever play the game.

 

[rafanoy1992]

I think this should be Nadal's schedule:

Doha

Australian Open

Either do Indian Wells or Miami (He should only play one of these)

Monte Carlo

Barcelona OR Madrid (He should only play one of these)

Rome

French Open

Grass tune up

Wimbledon

Canada

Cincinnati

US Open

A 500 event

World Tour Finals

So, it should give him 14 or 15 tournaments a year. In my opinion, it should be enough to preserve his knees.