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While nothing that hasn't been discussed on these forums, an interesting read.
I guess my only caveat with this view is that there are new waves of players coming up all the time, and these players don't stagnate but also improve. The article also doesn't say anything about the historically weak generation of players that should be peaking and dominating now (e.g. Nishikori, Raonic, Dimitrov, Tomic, etc). What the Big Five have done over the last few years is amazing, but has been at least partially assisted by a very weak younger generation. As the younger cohort led by Zverev enters their 20s, they're going to get harder and harder to beat by guys in their mid-30s.
In other words, it isn't like the older players are playing in an unchanging field. Maybe a 35-year old Roger and a 31-year old Rafa can dispatch 19-20 year old Alex Zverev, but will a 37-year old Roger and 33-year old Rafa be able to beat a 22-year old Zverev?
The NextGen, players born 1995 and later, is just starting to come of age. The group seems to get stronger in 1997, players turning 20 this year. Traditionally, players enter their peak years sometime in the 20-22 range. Let's take the latter part of that, so 22. Players born in 1996 turn 22 next year; player born in '97 turn 22 in 2019, and players born in '98 turn 22 in 2020. So my point is, things are going to get harder and harder for the old guys. I'm not saying that they can't still win Slams in the years to come, but that the chances will become fewer and fewer.
I guess my only caveat with this view is that there are new waves of players coming up all the time, and these players don't stagnate but also improve. The article also doesn't say anything about the historically weak generation of players that should be peaking and dominating now (e.g. Nishikori, Raonic, Dimitrov, Tomic, etc). What the Big Five have done over the last few years is amazing, but has been at least partially assisted by a very weak younger generation. As the younger cohort led by Zverev enters their 20s, they're going to get harder and harder to beat by guys in their mid-30s.
In other words, it isn't like the older players are playing in an unchanging field. Maybe a 35-year old Roger and a 31-year old Rafa can dispatch 19-20 year old Alex Zverev, but will a 37-year old Roger and 33-year old Rafa be able to beat a 22-year old Zverev?
The NextGen, players born 1995 and later, is just starting to come of age. The group seems to get stronger in 1997, players turning 20 this year. Traditionally, players enter their peak years sometime in the 20-22 range. Let's take the latter part of that, so 22. Players born in 1996 turn 22 next year; player born in '97 turn 22 in 2019, and players born in '98 turn 22 in 2020. So my point is, things are going to get harder and harder for the old guys. I'm not saying that they can't still win Slams in the years to come, but that the chances will become fewer and fewer.
