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OK, I know I write this as he takes the first set off Roger in the Canada Masters. But I've been thinking about this over the last few weeks, and regardless of whether Roger comes back in this match, I will still feel the same. Let me explain.
We cannot understate the importance of winning a first big title as a breakthrough. When Zverev won Rome earlier in the year, he solidified his place as being among the upper echelon of players - not yet elite, but in the near-elite. In fact, I think when you look at great players, their first big title marks the beginning of what we could call "early prime" - when they reach a very high level of play, showing that they are capable of winning big, but have not yet reached the full extent of their abilities. I think Zverev is quite clearly in his early prime. What and when his peak will look like remains to be seen, but he certain has to win a Slam before really getting there.
Now if he wins today, I think all of a sudden this chances at the US Open go up. I'm not saying he's a favorite, but he comes a serious contender. But more to the point: winning a Masters, and possibly more, this year sets the groundwork for another step up next year - and that step brings him into the best of the best. As it stands now, Zverev is third in the race rankings and looks like he should be able to hold that for the rest of the year. A jump from #24 in 2016 to #3 this year is huge - and makes the leap to #1 next year not as hard to fathom.
I do think that Novak will bounce back next year, although to what extent remains to be seen. Probably Andy as well. Roger and Rafa will probably slip a bit, if only because next year's tour should be stronger, and of course they're both continuing to age, and I think there will be some let down after their remarkable seasons in 2017. But clearly the hold of the Big Four/Five on the tour is loosening, and even if they resurge as a whole, I think Zverev is ready to be part of the mix.
For the rest of this year, Zverev will consolidate his position as the "best of the rest" - because that is what he is, in my view - better than all but the Big Five, and possibly better than a fading Wawrinka. He will hopefully (finally) go deeper at the US Open, and then sometime next he will take over at #1. Whether or not he is YE #1 depends upon if he wins a Slam. He'll need to. But considering his relatively poor performances at the Slams this year, especially at RG, he could really gain some points. One possible path I could see is him edging closer with strong performances and a Masters or two in the first half, and then taking over at #1 after winning Wimbledon or the US Open.
Of course in the end, who knows - we shall see. But it is fun to speculate about, and boy am I glad to see a new elite player. Hopefully a few of his peers will join him soon.
We cannot understate the importance of winning a first big title as a breakthrough. When Zverev won Rome earlier in the year, he solidified his place as being among the upper echelon of players - not yet elite, but in the near-elite. In fact, I think when you look at great players, their first big title marks the beginning of what we could call "early prime" - when they reach a very high level of play, showing that they are capable of winning big, but have not yet reached the full extent of their abilities. I think Zverev is quite clearly in his early prime. What and when his peak will look like remains to be seen, but he certain has to win a Slam before really getting there.
Now if he wins today, I think all of a sudden this chances at the US Open go up. I'm not saying he's a favorite, but he comes a serious contender. But more to the point: winning a Masters, and possibly more, this year sets the groundwork for another step up next year - and that step brings him into the best of the best. As it stands now, Zverev is third in the race rankings and looks like he should be able to hold that for the rest of the year. A jump from #24 in 2016 to #3 this year is huge - and makes the leap to #1 next year not as hard to fathom.
I do think that Novak will bounce back next year, although to what extent remains to be seen. Probably Andy as well. Roger and Rafa will probably slip a bit, if only because next year's tour should be stronger, and of course they're both continuing to age, and I think there will be some let down after their remarkable seasons in 2017. But clearly the hold of the Big Four/Five on the tour is loosening, and even if they resurge as a whole, I think Zverev is ready to be part of the mix.
For the rest of this year, Zverev will consolidate his position as the "best of the rest" - because that is what he is, in my view - better than all but the Big Five, and possibly better than a fading Wawrinka. He will hopefully (finally) go deeper at the US Open, and then sometime next he will take over at #1. Whether or not he is YE #1 depends upon if he wins a Slam. He'll need to. But considering his relatively poor performances at the Slams this year, especially at RG, he could really gain some points. One possible path I could see is him edging closer with strong performances and a Masters or two in the first half, and then taking over at #1 after winning Wimbledon or the US Open.
Of course in the end, who knows - we shall see. But it is fun to speculate about, and boy am I glad to see a new elite player. Hopefully a few of his peers will join him soon.