Prediction: Alexander Zverev will be #1 next year

El Dude

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OK, I know I write this as he takes the first set off Roger in the Canada Masters. But I've been thinking about this over the last few weeks, and regardless of whether Roger comes back in this match, I will still feel the same. Let me explain.

We cannot understate the importance of winning a first big title as a breakthrough. When Zverev won Rome earlier in the year, he solidified his place as being among the upper echelon of players - not yet elite, but in the near-elite. In fact, I think when you look at great players, their first big title marks the beginning of what we could call "early prime" - when they reach a very high level of play, showing that they are capable of winning big, but have not yet reached the full extent of their abilities. I think Zverev is quite clearly in his early prime. What and when his peak will look like remains to be seen, but he certain has to win a Slam before really getting there.

Now if he wins today, I think all of a sudden this chances at the US Open go up. I'm not saying he's a favorite, but he comes a serious contender. But more to the point: winning a Masters, and possibly more, this year sets the groundwork for another step up next year - and that step brings him into the best of the best. As it stands now, Zverev is third in the race rankings and looks like he should be able to hold that for the rest of the year. A jump from #24 in 2016 to #3 this year is huge - and makes the leap to #1 next year not as hard to fathom.

I do think that Novak will bounce back next year, although to what extent remains to be seen. Probably Andy as well. Roger and Rafa will probably slip a bit, if only because next year's tour should be stronger, and of course they're both continuing to age, and I think there will be some let down after their remarkable seasons in 2017. But clearly the hold of the Big Four/Five on the tour is loosening, and even if they resurge as a whole, I think Zverev is ready to be part of the mix.

For the rest of this year, Zverev will consolidate his position as the "best of the rest" - because that is what he is, in my view - better than all but the Big Five, and possibly better than a fading Wawrinka. He will hopefully (finally) go deeper at the US Open, and then sometime next he will take over at #1. Whether or not he is YE #1 depends upon if he wins a Slam. He'll need to. But considering his relatively poor performances at the Slams this year, especially at RG, he could really gain some points. One possible path I could see is him edging closer with strong performances and a Masters or two in the first half, and then taking over at #1 after winning Wimbledon or the US Open.

Of course in the end, who knows - we shall see. But it is fun to speculate about, and boy am I glad to see a new elite player. Hopefully a few of his peers will join him soon.
 
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herios

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Maybe he will. So far he layed poorly in slams, until that changes, he will not be number 1.
 

The Strokes

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I'm impressed with AZ too--who wouldn't be? But so far he's done poorly in slams and he won't make #1 without at least one.
He can surge bigtime for the remainder of the year because he doesn't have that many points to defend (compared to Murray Waw DJok--all of whom are going to drop out of the top 5 IMO. Well Djok and Waw for sure as they are done for the year, and Murray prob as he is defending over 3,000 points (approx)
So likely top four (not in order, but maybe?) Rafa, Fed, Zverev then Thiem or Cilic. IN 2018 Fed and Rafa have all the points to defend, if Djok comes back to top form, then it's all for grabs; to a lesser extent same for Murray and Wawrinka.

Got to watch AZ a fair bit in MOntreal and his groundies and serve are fantastic. I would say his other shots (except maybe smash?) aren't there yet, volleys' passing shots, drops, not champion quality yet. He's just 20, he'll get them in time.
 

shawnbm

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He will need to at least make the semifinals of New York to stay in the conversation. Frankly, he may be tapped to be in the final the way things are going. If he wins, then he likely would become number one a few months thereafter, assuming he continues to go to finals and semifinals the rest of the year.
 

Front242

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Very much doubt it personally. Novak may come back strong and Andy too. There are also 2 decent players called Roger and Rafa. Nah, sorry, can't see it till all the above have retired. Zverev has not been good at slams and imo will remain a best of 3 winner only for the foreseeable future. Lacks consistency and fitness and if his serve is off it's game over. Hits a lot of routine shots into the net too.
 

Shivashish Sarkar

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Zverev can bash the ball if you land it up short. If you are going to have him move around and out of his comfort zone by hitting wide and deep I guess he would be a bit out of sorts. He is not a bad mover. But just isn't the best retrieving, IMHO. If you can prevent the short balls and hitting into his comfort zone, he can be dominated. Also, he lacks certain elements in his game and does not have a great plan B. So, unless he works on his game further, he does not have a chance at no. 1. The old guard (Big 5) still have a lot of game to chalk up strategies to tackle him.

I don't want to throw cold water on anybody. It would not be a bad thing to watch a Big 6 for a year.
 

Shivashish Sarkar

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One guy with a champion's spirit is Shapovalov. He plays well, wields a single-handed BH, and plays his FH with authority. He moves around like real quick and has a lot of involvement in the game. He should manage his schedule intelligently to improve his rankings so that he gets an entry into main draw everywhere. He has a great game for hards already and should think about making great progress.

Duh, can't think of anyone else for next year apart from Zverev and him.
 
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GameSetAndMath

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Sasha's game is stead but not anything spectacular.

I actually like the new kid in the block much better (even though he lost to Sasha). Shapovalov has got some swagger that simply cannot be matched by other young chaps such as Sasha, Thiem, etc.