Playing in WTF without being in top 8

[GameSetAndMath]

With Federer somewhat struggling to qualify for the WTF this
year ( While I am confident that he will make it, but it may be late
in the season before it becomes certainty), I was looking at the
rule book of ATP more carefully. According to it, the top 7
players in the race get automatically invited to WTF. The next
invitation does not automatically go to the 8th ranked player in the
race. It goes to a grand slam winner provided that grand slam
winner is at position 20 or less in the race. If there is no such
player, it goes to the 8th player in the race.

For example, if Federer happens to win US open this year,
but does not finish in top 8, but finishes in top 20, he will still
get invited to WTF.

This kind of thing happening is very rare, of course.
Does anybody know whether there was ever a player who
played in WTF despite not being in top 8? How about Goran
in the year in which he won Wimbledon as a wild card.
I do not know.

 

[Johnsteinbeck]

thanks for the reminder.

btw, you're also right in regards to Goran - in 2001, he was the first to benefit from the system, two years after it was introduced (before, you had the seperate tour and grand slam cup events). Albert Costa did it the next year, and Gaston Gaudio in 2004 (pretty sure regarding Gaudio, but not 100%, as i don't know when the cut-off was - the tournament started Nov 13, Gaudio was ranked #10 on Nov 1st, but #8 just two weeks prior to that. i reckon it's not likely that the cut-off was as early as a month before, so it was probably the RG win that got him in).

of course, noone has qualified that way since, mainly because the top guys' stranglehold on the slams set in. as for your example: it won't be relevant for the Fedster this year - if he won the USO, he'd easily rank top 8 with those points. on the other hand, if by some freak accident a non top-8 player should win it, who knows, Fed might be the one who's hurt. but seeing as in the past it's only been Wimby/RG winners who got in that way, i guess it's safe to say that it's rather unlikely we'll see another of those entries through the USO.

 

[britbox]

According to it, the top 7
players in the race get automatically invited to WTF. The next
invitation does not automatically go to the 8th ranked player in the
race. It goes to a grand slam winner provided that grand slam
winner is at position 20 or less in the race. If there is no such
player, it goes to the 8th player in the race.

I wasn't aware of that, thanks for the info. I wonder what would happen if two players outside the Top 8 won majors... pretty unlikely scenario I guess.

I don't think Fed finishes outside the Top 8 though - pretty sure he'll be in London.

 

[Johnsteinbeck]

^ yeah, i guess that's really unlikely. anyway, the higher ranked of the two (or three? or four? ) would take the #8 slot. atp #1-7 are always safe.

 

[El Dude]

I thought this was going to be about poor Janko Tipsarevic, last year's #9 who was in the WTF and looked so clearly outmatched.

As johnsteinbeck said, if Federer wins the US Open this would be a moot point - he'd easily be in the top 8, probably top 5 - at least as long as he doesn't tank the rest of the North American tour. But let's look a bit further.

First of all, Nadal's already in and Novak is on the cusp. Let's also assume that Murray and Ferrer get in quite easily. That leaves 4 slots. Here's the rest of the top 20 Race Rankings:

5. 2775 Berdych
6. 2515 Federer
7. 2455 Tsonga
8. 2370 Del Potro
9. 2150 Wawrinka
10. 1855 Gasquet
11. 1725 Haas
12. 1585 Almagro
13. 1445 Nishikori
14. 1420 Simon
15. 1245 Anderson
16. 1235 Janowicz
17. 1210 Cilic
18. 1190 Raonic
19. 1165 Paire
20. 1090 Seppi

I think once you get past Haas the chances of contending for the WTF drop way down. I suppose we could include Jerzy Janowicz as a dark-horse candidate, but he's still too far behind, almost 1300 behind Federer. That leaves us with seven likely players contending for four spots:

5. 2775 Berdych
6. 2515 Federer
7. 2455 Tsonga
8. 2370 Del Potro
9. 2150 Wawrinka
10. 1855 Gasquet
11. 1725 Haas

Remember the saying, when a couple people are being chased by a bear you don't need to out-run the bear, only the other person? So Roger only needs to out-run Wawrinka, Gasquet and Haas; he has a 365 point lead over Stanislas - certainly not comfortably large but it is something. I suspect we'll know more after the North American tour.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

According to it, the top 7
players in the race get automatically invited to WTF. The next
invitation does not automatically go to the 8th ranked player in the
race. It goes to a grand slam winner provided that grand slam
winner is at position 20 or less in the race. If there is no such
player, it goes to the 8th player in the race.

I wasn't aware of that, thanks for the info. I wonder what would happen if two players outside the Top 8 won majors... pretty unlikely scenario I guess.

I don't think Fed finishes outside the Top 8 though - pretty sure he'll be in London.

According to ATP rule book, if two players ranked outside 7 (but <= 20)
are grand slam winners, the highest ranked grand slam winner gets the invitation,
the second highest ranked grand slam winner becomes the first alternate
and the player in position 8 becomes the second alternate. It should be
kept in mind that this may play a crucial role in the event one of the
legitimate (top 7 guys) decide not to participate due to injuries etc
despite qualifying. I believe Nadal gave away his legitimate spot in
the WTF at least one year if not more than one year in the recent past.

This year as far as Federer is concerned, it is not germane.
If at all he wins the US open, he will definitely finish in top 8 and so will
qualify directly. However, I would not be surprised if Federer
uses this route to qualification sometime down the road
before he hangs the racquet (perhaps winning Wimby in 2016
while being ranked outside top 10).

 

[herios]

This year, I am 99% it won't be an issue, Roger played well below his standard and he is still ranked 6, the reality is, no lower ranked players are stepping up in a consistent manner, just take a look, already the top 8 in the race to WTF are exactly the top 8 ranked players in the 52 week ranking as well.

 

[Johnsteinbeck]

#5, not 6

 

[Kieran]

#5, not 6

Patience, brother! Have patience...

 

[Johnsteinbeck]

#5, not 6

Patience, brother! Have patience...

you know, i was Just about to go back and edit it into "not 6 - yet".

although there are scenarios where he needn't ever be #6, of course, depending on who moves when. he hasn't been #4 this year either.

 

[herios]

#5, not 6

Roger is #6 in the race to London ranking, that is what I was talking about

 

[Johnsteinbeck]

whoops, my bad

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Now that we have Nadal winning USO, Roger just needs to finish in top 8 to
make it in WTF.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

Federer ??, will he want to face hadal at world tour finals even if he as a 4-0 record I think.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Actually, it is not easy to make it into WTF for Fed as there is tough competition from
four or five guys who are currently below him (Gasquet, Wawrinka, Milos etc).

Even if Fed makes it, it is not clear what good it will do to him, if he is going to
lose all his three matches in the Round Robin. It will only destroy whatever little
confidence he has right now.

It seems, perhaps it may be better if he does not qualify this year.

 

[August]

I think there's a scenario that a top 8 player may be out of the WTF this year. Roger has the runner-up points from the last year's WTF, but they aren't included in the Race to London. With those points he might be ahead of Wawrinka and Gasquet in the 52-week ranking but behind in the Race.

 

[Johnsteinbeck]

^ just to clarify - the WTF points get taken away before the WTF, so the top 8 in the race Are the top 8 in the ranking before WTF starts.

this thread originally was about the hypothetical option of a player qualifying for WTF not by total points, but by winning a slam (if a slam winner is ranked #20 or higher, then he gets to go, regardless of whether or not he's in the top 8).

 

[Denis]

I think it is not inconcevable Roger will not make it for the WTF. Here is today's points in the race so far:

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Rankings/YTD-Singles.aspx

1 Nadal, Rafael (ESP) 11,010
2 Djokovic, Novak (SRB) 7,970
3 Murray, Andy (GBR) 5,790
4 Ferrer, David (ESP) 4,900
5 Berdych, Tomas (CZE) 3,405
6 Del Potro, Juan Martin (ARG) 3,365
7 Federer, Roger (SUI) 3,055
8 Wawrinka, Stanislas (SUI) 2,925
9 Gasquet, Richard (FRA) 2,765
10 Tsonga, Jo-Wilfried (FRA) 2,455
11 Raonic, Milos (CAN) 2,105
12 Haas, Tommy (GER) 2,085
13 Isner, John (USA) 2,015
14 Almagro, Nicolas (ESP) 1,795
15 Fognini, Fabio (ITA) 1,785

The indoor season is usually really good to Roger, so that helps, but he is not a better player than Gasquet and Wawrinka at this moment and they are REALLY close to him in points.

 

[Johnsteinbeck]

^ well, he can consider himself lucky that DelPo and Jo-Willy aren't healthy atm. and indoors, you never know, Raonic might do something as well. however, while Ritchie and Stan were showing some great tennis, they aren't hallmarks of consistence either.

so yes, it's very much conceivable that Rog won't make it. i wouldn't count on it. but anyway, there's so many question marks hovering above him at the moment, what's one more?

 

[August]

I took a look at the points breakdown:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_ATP_World_Tour_Finals#Singles

I'd say Roger has more potential to increase his "Best Other" points than Stan and Richie. On the other hand, the only non-mandatory Roger is going to play is Basel. And this year he can't afford skipping Bercy (what he wasn't going to do this year anyway). But he may need deep runs in Basel and Bercy, which may harm his performances at the WTF.