Peak Federer Vs Peak Djokovic

[ClayDeath]

Peak Federer vs peak Djokovic:

 

they decide to play 10 matches on every surface:

1. clay
2. hard courts
3. grass
4. indoor hard courts

 

what gives? who has the edge on these 4 surfaces? who wins exactly how many times on each of these surfaces?

Post away and have fun.

 

[britbox]

Will think about this one and give a more detailed response later, as it's tough...

Gut check says at an absolute levels favour the current incarnation of Djokovic, but relative levels say Fed and I mean this in the context where a peak 25 year old Federer playing now would be playing at an even high level than he was playing then.

 

[ClayDeath]

same here. I have to ponder over this one a little bit.

this very topic is going to rain on every tennis forum under the sun soon.

I will give exact counts later in terms of matches won and lost on all 4 surfaces.

 

 

 

everybody is welcome to jump and in and share their own sense of this.

 

my initial sense is that I have to give Federer the edge on grass and clay.

 

[Moxie]

Wow, that is a pretty fun one, actually.  Good topic, CD.  If we're defining terms:  peak Fed is 2004-7, and peak Novak is 2011-now?  I'll start:

1. clay - I think Roger fan's consistently underrate him on clay because of Rafa, but he was the 2nd best for some time.  However, Djokovic's natural movement on clay is better.  Here, I would say, Djokovic is more natural on clay, and Federer was all-around enough to do well.  I'm inclined to give a heavy edge to Djokovic, as he's a much more natural clay player, and has a great passing shot, which gets Roger, even at his best.  8-2 Novak.
2. hard courts - This is tough, because they played their best in almost two different times of HC play.  Roger was still a little more S&V in the early days, if I'm not wrong.  Novak plays a baseline-based HC game.  Roger has such a great serve.  And so many weapons, including a superior net game, even though Djokovic has improved at both serve and net.  6-4 Roger.
3. grass - You have to go with Roger here, as the opposite of what I said about Djokovic on clay.  Fed's game is very natural to grass.  Djokovic's is all-around enough to have adapted, but he has not always looked so comfortable, even in 2011, when he won.  8-2 Roger.
4. indoor hard courts - This might be the toughest to judge, as both have great records.  Both love the no-weather influence.  But Fed's game is so quick, and was so pristine in his time.  Djokovic still likes the baseline more, which likely prime-Fed would have eaten alive.  This seems to be the decider in my model, and I would go with Federer here.  7-3.

I put that at 23-17 in favor or Federer.  In his prime, I think Federer played with the more confidence of the two, and has the more natural tools in the tool shed.  So a 5 match differential in his favor seems about right.  Fair to both.  No?

 

[ClayDeath]

Wow, that is a pretty fun one, actually. Good topic, CD. If we’re defining terms: peak Fed is 2004-7, and peak Novak is 2011-now? I’ll start:

1. clay – I think Roger fan’s consistently underrate him on clay because of Rafa, but he was the 2nd best for some time. However, Djokovic’s natural movement on clay is better. Here, I would say, Djokovic is more natural on clay, and Federer was all-around enough to do well. I’m inclined to give a heavy edge to Djokovic, as he’s a much more natural clay player, and has a great passing shot, which gets Roger, even at his best. 8-2 Novak.
2. hard courts – This is tough, because they played their best in almost two different times of HC play. Roger was still a little more S&V in the early days, if I’m not wrong. Novak plays a baseline-based HC game. Roger has such a great serve. And so many weapons, including a superior net game, even though Djokovic has improved at both serve and net. 6-4 Roger.
3. grass – You have to go with Roger here, as the opposite of what I said about Djokovic on clay. Fed’s game is very natural to grass. Djokovic’s is all-around enough to have adapted, but he has not always looked so comfortable, even in 2011, when he won. 8-2 Roger.
4. indoor hard courts – This might be the toughest to judge, as both have great records. Both love the no-weather influence. But Fed’s game is so quick, and was so pristine in his time. Djokovic still likes the baseline more, which likely prime-Fed would have eaten alive. This seems to be the decider in my model, and I would go with Federer here. 7-3.

I put that at 23-17 in favor or Federer. In his prime, I think Federer played with the more confidence of the two, and has the more natural tools in the tool shed. So a 5 match differential in his favor seems about right. Fair to both. No?

excellent post.

 

I am getting ready for sleep now. I have not been feeling all that well. I have had a toothache.

will give this some thought tomorrow.

 

and we will all try to reply to your post as well.

 

[ClayDeath]

I like Federer's chances on grass and clay.

 

 

more on this tomorrow and exact match wins and losses estimates.

I can start with grass anyway: I think peak roger takes down nole 7 out of 10 times on grass.

 

[MikeOne]

I actually think this is quite predictable...

Out of 10 matches in each surface:

Outdoor slower surfaces.  (IW, Miami, AO)- clearly edge for Djokovic. A young pre-prime Novak straight setted Roger at AO back in 08 and straight setted him again in same surface in 11. Novak 7-3

Outdoor fast hard courts (USO, Dubai, Cincinatti etc..). US open is pretty even as it's fast but not as fast as Cincy but at Cinci, clear edge to Roger (he's beaten Novak handily here in the past). I would put it 6-4 Federer as USO would be even but clear edge to Roger in faster courts.

Grass. Edge to Federer but close given slower nature of grass courts in past 10 years or so. Djokovic has really raised his level on grass but i think Roger's more natural volleying ability and more effective serve give him a 6-4 edge.

Clay. Both are very similar here but slight edge to Novak. Novak has beaten Nadal 4-5 times on clay and is a more consistent performer on clay. He's won more masters and even though he hasn't won FO yet, he's been very close and remember, Fed won his when Nadal was out. 6-4 Novak

Indoors. Pretty even. It's hard to go against Fed but looking at what Novak has done on indoors, it's pretty nasty. He's won EOY masters 4 or 5 times? He's pretty much dominated indoors since 2011. Roger has always been a fantastic indoor player. 5-5

 

 

[ClayDeath]

long time no see MikeOne.

 

[britbox]

I actually think this is quite predictable… Out of 10 matches in each surface: Outdoor slower surfaces. (IW, Miami, AO)- clearly edge for Djokovic. A young pre-prime Novak straight setted Roger at AO back in 08 and straight setted him again in same surface in 11. Novak 7-3 Outdoor fast hard courts (USO, Dubai, Cincinatti etc..). US open is pretty even as it’s fast but not as fast as Cincy but at Cinci, clear edge to Roger (he’s beaten Novak handily here in the past). I would put it 6-4 Federer as USO would be even but clear edge to Roger in faster courts. Grass. Edge to Federer but close given slower nature of grass courts in past 10 years or so. Djokovic has really raised his level on grass but i think Roger’s more natural volleying ability and more effective serve give him a 6-4 edge. Clay. Both are very similar here but slight edge to Novak. Novak has beaten Nadal 4-5 times on clay and is a more consistent performer on clay. He’s won more masters and even though he hasn’t won FO yet, he’s been very close and remember, Fed won his when Nadal was out. 6-4 Novak Indoors. Pretty even. It’s hard to go against Fed but looking at what Novak has done on indoors, it’s pretty nasty. He’s won EOY masters 4 or 5 times? He’s pretty much dominated indoors since 2011. Roger has always been a fantastic indoor player. 5-5

I'd give the edge to Fed on clay as it stands, just.

Outdoor Hard Slow: 7-3 Novak.
Outdoor Hard Fast: 6-4 Fed
Clay: Dithering between 5-5 and 6-4 Fed... maybe 5.5-4.5 is a truer reflection of how I feel about this one, but I'll round up and go 6-4 Fed
Grass: 7-3 Fed
Indoors: 5-5

Fed 27 Novak 23

 

[Billie]

I don't know but if I had to chose a tennis player to fight for my life, I would not look past Nole.  Not only he saved so many match points and went on to win matches when he wasn't at his best but at his best it means he is a mean tennis machine and his mind is off the charts.  On any surface.

 

[Moxie]

MikeOne wrote:
I actually think this is quite predictable… Out of 10 matches in each surface: Outdoor slower surfaces. (IW, Miami, AO)- clearly edge for Djokovic. A young pre-prime Novak straight setted Roger at AO back in 08 and straight setted him again in same surface in 11. Novak 7-3 Outdoor fast hard courts (USO, Dubai, Cincinatti etc..). US open is pretty even as it’s fast but not as fast as Cincy but at Cinci, clear edge to Roger (he’s beaten Novak handily here in the past). I would put it 6-4 Federer as USO would be even but clear edge to Roger in faster courts. Grass. Edge to Federer but close given slower nature of grass courts in past 10 years or so. Djokovic has really raised his level on grass but i think Roger’s more natural volleying ability and more effective serve give him a 6-4 edge. Clay. Both are very similar here but slight edge to Novak. Novak has beaten Nadal 4-5 times on clay and is a more consistent performer on clay. He’s won more masters and even though he hasn’t won FO yet, he’s been very close and remember, Fed won his when Nadal was out. 6-4 Novak Indoors. Pretty even. It’s hard to go against Fed but looking at what Novak has done on indoors, it’s pretty nasty. He’s won EOY masters 4 or 5 times? He’s pretty much dominated indoors since 2011. Roger has always been a fantastic indoor player. 5-5

I’d give the edge to Fed on clay as it stands, just. Outdoor Hard Slow: 7-3 Novak. Outdoor Hard Fast: 6-4 Fed Clay: Dithering between 5-5 and 6-4 Fed… maybe 5.5-4.5 is a truer reflection of how I feel about this one, but I’ll round up and go 6-4 Fed Grass: 7-3 Fed Indoors: 5-5 Fed 27 Novak 23

Not to put too fine a point on it, but you've changed the equation.  27+23 = 50 and we were talking about 40 matches.  You split outdoor HCs between fast and slow.  That's a bit of a cheat, as that was a hard one.   Also, I think you're kidding yourself about Fed v. Djoker on clay.

 

 

[britbox]

britbox wrote:
<blockquote>
MikeOne wrote:
I actually think this is quite predictable… Out of 10 matches in each surface: Outdoor slower surfaces. (IW, Miami, AO)- clearly edge for Djokovic. A young pre-prime Novak straight setted Roger at AO back in 08 and straight setted him again in same surface in 11. Novak 7-3 Outdoor fast hard courts (USO, Dubai, Cincinatti etc..). US open is pretty even as it’s fast but not as fast as Cincy but at Cinci, clear edge to Roger (he’s beaten Novak handily here in the past). I would put it 6-4 Federer as USO would be even but clear edge to Roger in faster courts. Grass. Edge to Federer but close given slower nature of grass courts in past 10 years or so. Djokovic has really raised his level on grass but i think Roger’s more natural volleying ability and more effective serve give him a 6-4 edge. Clay. Both are very similar here but slight edge to Novak. Novak has beaten Nadal 4-5 times on clay and is a more consistent performer on clay. He’s won more masters and even though he hasn’t won FO yet, he’s been very close and remember, Fed won his when Nadal was out. 6-4 Novak Indoors. Pretty even. It’s hard to go against Fed but looking at what Novak has done on indoors, it’s pretty nasty. He’s won EOY masters 4 or 5 times? He’s pretty much dominated indoors since 2011. Roger has always been a fantastic indoor player. 5-5

I’d give the edge to Fed on clay as it stands, just. Outdoor Hard Slow: 7-3 Novak. Outdoor Hard Fast: 6-4 Fed Clay: Dithering between 5-5 and 6-4 Fed… maybe 5.5-4.5 is a truer reflection of how I feel about this one, but I’ll round up and go 6-4 Fed Grass: 7-3 Fed Indoors: 5-5 Fed 27 Novak 23</blockquote>
Not to put too fine a point on it, but you’ve changed the equation. 27+23 = 50 and we were talking about 40 matches. You split outdoor HCs between fast and slow. That’s a bit of a cheat, as that was a hard one. Also, I think you’re kidding yourself about Fed v. Djoker on clay.

OK, Hards: Djoker 6-4 Clay: Fed 6-4 Grass: Fed 7-3 Indoors: 5-5
Total: 22-18

I don't think I'm kidding myself about Federer on clay.  I'm not talking about Federer now, the PRIME Federer - don't forget how good he was on clay - he may even have another 4 Roland Garros titles if Nadal wasn't in the way.  Don't forget in Novak's outstanding 2011 where he was tearing through the field, he ran into old man Federer having a good day at Roland Garros, and we saw what happened there.

 

[Federberg]

I'm not going to participate in this conversation, but I'm just curious... Why not compare Novak with peak Rafa? Or is he being bypassed already?

 

[britbox]

I’m not going to participate in this conversation, but I’m just curious… Why not compare Novak with peak Rafa? Or is he being bypassed already?

Don't worry @federberg - we'll get around to it!

 

[ClayDeath]

That would be a good topic as well.
somebody fire up the thread.

 

[EdbergsGhost]

Interesting stat for this year:

 This year Djokovic has 3 out of 4 GS and 6 out of the 8 Masters he played. He is taking 75% of all big titles. In the three big events that he did not win, he was in the finals. He *lost just 1,600 points (10%)  out of 16,000 points available at at those events.  Wondered how Roger's 2006 matches up with it.

*(800 at RG and 400 each in the Cinci and Rogers Masters)

 

 

[Billie]

Edbergs Ghost that is just nuts.  Nole played 1 ATP 250 tournament, and 2 ATP 500, with 1 DC match, the rest are all M1000 and slams.

 

Federer did great in 2006.  He played few more lower level tournaments, but of the big ones he won 4 Masters 1000 titles (IW, Miami, Toronto, Madrid, when it was in the fall) and WTF.  He lost the finals of Monte Carlo and Rome, didn't play Hamburg, which was Masters 1000 until 2009.  He won 3 slams and made the final in 4th (lost to Rafa at RG).  Federer lost in the 2nd round of Cincinnati (to Murray), so that is the only one that he really messed up that year.

 

 

[Federberg]

I'm not endorsing this, but thought this was the appropriate place to post this. While watching the Murray Djokovic final at Bercy, commentators several times sought to put Djokovic's dominance in context. They repeatedly brought up the idea that his success is due to more and more courts being slowed down. For my money, Novak is doing everything he needs to do to put his name right up there. Frankly I think it already is. We can no longer just talk about Roger and Rafa. You have to have Novak in the conversation. He hasn't yet reached Rogers numbers, but jeepers, he's catching up!

 

For my part I would love to see more court variety (I'm making this comment independent of the Novak issue. Just my preference!). If I have one wish for next year it would be to see Novak win RG. A semi-final line up with Novak, Murray, Rafa and Stan would be something to see

 

[mrzz]

Even if I agree that the numbers are close, I do believe that, given the style of play, peak Federer would beat peak Djokovic around two thirds of the time on all surfaces but clay. Federer's winners around 2005 were just too fast, not even peak Djokovic would be able to track them down.

On clay, Djokovic should have the upper hand, but his failures at RG, including his 2011 loss to Federer himself put me in doubt.

But this has a big match up part on it. Their dominance against the field, which is what matters in the end, is quite similar.

 

 

[ClayDeath]

I’m not endorsing this, but thought this was the appropriate place to post this. While watching the Murray Djokovic final at Bercy, commentators several times sought to put Djokovic’s dominance in context. They repeatedly brought up the idea that his success is due to more and more courts being slowed down. For my money, Novak is doing everything he needs to do to put his name right up there. Frankly I think it already is. We can no longer just talk about Roger and Rafa. You have to have Novak in the conversation. He hasn’t yet reached Rogers numbers, but jeepers, he’s catching up! For my part I would love to see more court variety (I’m making this comment independent of the Novak issue. Just my preference!). If I have one wish for next year it would be to see Novak win RG. A semi-final line up with Novak, Murray, Rafa and Stan would be something to see

others out there in the field--the field he faces-- have exactly the same landscape. he is beating them all to death and slicing them to pieces because he is just better than them. how the hell can we spin our away out of that. he is taking anything he wants. he is not just beating them. he is running right over them.

 

he is also willing to outwork them all and keep progressing.

he does have a clear coast so that is helping his cause also: Rafa lost his way and his fighting spirit because he was not willing to work as hard as he always had. injury did not help this time around even though injuries have never meant anything to him in the past. he was simply willing to overcome them in the past. but that being said, rafa's decline is  several years in the making. people should have been able to catch that.

Andy does not have a forehand and Roger is pushing 35.