OK, Rafapologists, what's the excuse this time?

[El Dude]

 

[nehmeth]

uzzled Mastoor??

 

[Moxie]

How about he played poorly and got beat? Now, I do wish people would stop mistaking this forum for the trashy ones that some of you can't resist, apparently. We don't really have Rafa apologists here. If he's actually injured, it's not an excuse. When he gets outplayed, our regulars will cop to that.

 

[Ricardo]

i go with the second, he played poorly but no distraction..... no need to add salt to injury. Pretty sure Rafa's best on clay is behind him, and i mean it career-wise. He has not played THAT well for the last 3 years, don't think he has much more to give anymore.

 

[Kieran]

Very unfair poll, sir! I shoulda been allowed to tick all options, since all applied today...

 

[Moxie]

i go with the second, he played poorly but no distraction..... no need to add salt to injury. Pretty sure Rafa's best on clay is behind him, and i mean it career-wise. He has not played THAT well for the last 3 years, don't think he has much more to give anymore.

I will agree that Rafa's best on clay is behind him, or certainly as consistently as it was. I think he was stratospheric in 2008. After '09, he's been simply better than everyone else, not more. However, I don't agree with the assumption that he doesn't have much more to give. Peaks and troughs will become more to the usual, eventually, but he's still the best on clay. He just lost today. Remember that Roger went a while without a Slam, and still pulled off a Wimbledon at 31. And Rafa's still only 27. A bit early to write him off as finished, I'd say.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

i go with the second, he played poorly but no distraction..... no need to add salt to injury. Pretty sure Rafa's best on clay is behind him, and i mean it career-wise. He has not played THAT well for the last 3 years, don't think he has much more to give anymore.

I am not so sure of that though.

In the main Monte Carlo thread I posted the complete list of losses of Rafa on Clay.
As of today, his record on clay is 300-22. Of the 22 losses, 10 were in the period
2002-2004 when Rafa was a baby and has not even won a GS.

In the five year period 2005-2009, Rafa had exactly 6 losses (to Fed twice and
to Soderling, Ferrero, Gaudio and Andreev once each).

In the next five year period 2010-2014 (agrred that 2014 is not over yet), Rafa
had exactly 6 losses (to Novak thrice and to Zeballos, Verdasco and Ferrer once each).
I don't see a decline here in the first place, to be worried or to make dramatic
statements such as his best on clay is over.

However, there is one trend though. Even though he is winning as much as
he used to win, he probably is not demolishing people as badly as he used to.
In particular, even though Rafa won Rio, I think he played crappy in that
whole tournament (not just one isolated match).

But, I do think he may have three losses in this clay season. Now that
he lost MC, he will definitely play Barcelona and not skip it. He will win it.
He will probably lose Madrid and FO this year. If that happens, 2014 would
be his first 3-loss clay season since 2004. But, I think we should wait
at least for that to happen before making statements such as Rafa's
best on clay is behind him.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

I thought he was distracted because he was too busy thinking about how many Hawaiian Gooses are in the world.

 

[Front242]

Didn't watch it but I think it's pretty obvious the 44 unforced errors sealed his demise. Those would be poor numbers for him even in a bad performance in a best of 5 set match, let alone a straight sets loss in best of 3. Clearly a bad day for him and a solid if not spectacular (from what most people were saying) performance from Ferrer. Disappointing for Nadal fans as Ferrer didn't need to do anything special to win from what I gather. Us Fed fans are used to losses like this where the other guy didn't need to do much. Brisbane against Hewitt, Robredo at the US Open last year, Nishikori at Madrid last year and Miami this year. Those sort of losses when the opponents play solidly if not spectacularly sting.

Nadal winning just 1 point in the tiebreak was a huge shock.

 

[Moxie]

Didn't watch it but I think it's pretty obvious the 44 unforced errors sealed his demise. Those would be poor numbers for him even in a bad performance in a best of 5 set match, let alone a straight sets loss in best of 3. Clearly a bad day for him and a solid if not spectacular (from what most people were saying) performance from Ferrer. Disappointing for Nadal fans as Ferrer didn't need to do anything special to win from what I gather. Us Fed fans are used to losses like this where the other guy didn't need to do much. Brisbane against Hewitt, Robredo at the US Open last year, Nishikori at Madrid last year and Miami this year. Those sort of losses when the opponents play solidly if not spectacularly sting.

Nadal winning just 1 point in the tiebreak was a huge shock.

Even though you didn't see it, you do have the drift. However, in fairness to Ferrer, and in spite of what Broken says, Ferrer was focused, and committed to his game plan, which was to attack Nadal's backhand, and he didn't waiver in his focus. We can't give GGL props for playing above his pay-grade today, and losing, and not give Ferrer props for playing TO his pay-grade today, and winning, when the top guy was having an off day. (And if someone calls that an 'excuse' I might have to knock them about the head.)

 

[Front242]

^ Yeah, I read he was employing the Djokovic tactic of attacking the backhand so maybe that frustrated Nadal and contributed to some of the ufes but there were 44 of them which is absolutely nuts for Nadal. Seems this year the transition from hardcourts to clay hasn't been as smooth as before and maybe his timing hasn't adjusted properly yet to the clay or at least not in time to face a dogged competitor like Ferrer anyway. Forget the easier, non taxing matches Nadal had before today, they didn't test him much. Needs to get the intensity back and he will with a lot of points to defend.

The race for year end number one sure got interesting today.

 

[Moxie]

i go with the second, he played poorly but no distraction..... no need to add salt to injury. Pretty sure Rafa's best on clay is behind him, and i mean it career-wise. He has not played THAT well for the last 3 years, don't think he has much more to give anymore.

I am not so sure of that though.

In the main Monte Carlo thread I posted the complete list of losses of Rafa on Clay.
As of today, his record on clay is 300-22. Of the 22 losses, 10 were in the period
2002-2004 when Rafa was a baby and has not even won a GS.

In the five year period 2005-2009, Rafa had exactly 6 losses (to Fed twice and
to Soderling, Ferrero, Gaudio and Andreev once each).

In the next five year period 2010-2014 (agrred that 2014 is not over yet), Rafa
had exactly 6 losses (to Novak thrice and to Zeballos, Verdasco and Ferrer once each).
I don't see a decline here in the first place, to be worried or to make dramatic
statements such as his best on clay is over.

However, there is one trend though. Even though he is winning as much as
he used to win, he probably is not demolishing people as badly as he used to.
In particular, even though Rafa won Rio, I think he played crappy in that
whole tournament (not just one isolated match).

But, I do think he may have three losses in this clay season. Now that
he lost MC, he will definitely play Barcelona and not skip it. He will win it.
He will probably lose Madrid and FO this year. If that happens, 2014 would
be his first 3-loss clay season since 2004. But, I think we should wait
at least for that to happen before making statements such as Rafa's
best on clay is behind him.

I think predicting 3 clay losses is still a stretch. Your own argument is how definitively he's won over the years, citing stats. Surely RG is up a bit for grabs this year, as it has been since '09. And yet Nadal has still been the only one to grab it. If you're saying we should wait and see, then I don't think you can say he will probably lose RG this year. If nothing else, he'll protect RG. As you say, it's too early to declare that Rafa's best on clay is behind him, at least in terms of winning.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I think predicting 3 clay losses is still a stretch. Your own argument is how definitively he's won over the years, citing stats. Surely RG is up a bit for grabs this year, as it has been since '09. And yet Nadal has still been the only one to grab it. If you're saying we should wait and see, then I don't think you can say he will probably lose RG this year. If nothing else, he'll protect RG. As you say, it's too early to declare that Rafa's best on clay is behind him, at least in terms of winning.

OK. Let me get out of the predicting business.

My real point is this: If Rafa has three losses on clay in one season, we can psssibly
say his best on clay is behind him; but, definitely not until then.

 

[Moxie]

BTW, Dude…what's with putting up a controversial thread topic then checking out? It does seem a bit wimpy to challenge Nadal fans right on the nose, and then not stick around to defend your point. IMO, anyway.

 

[El Dude]

Very unfair poll, sir! I shoulda been allowed to tick all options, since all applied today...

The last one is for you, my friend.

But no one voted! Too soon for humor? Is the wound too raw?

 

[nehmeth]

People have been predicting Rafa's decline (and outright demise) since 2009. Whether he loses early at Wimbledon, is injured and cannot play for 7 months, or is defeated after winning MC 8 years straight, or loses to Ferrer for the first time in 10 years on clay... saying he will probably lose RG, is still a bad bet.

 

[Moxie]

I think predicting 3 clay losses is still a stretch. Your own argument is how definitively he's won over the years, citing stats. Surely RG is up a bit for grabs this year, as it has been since '09. And yet Nadal has still been the only one to grab it. If you're saying we should wait and see, then I don't think you can say he will probably lose RG this year. If nothing else, he'll protect RG. As you say, it's too early to declare that Rafa's best on clay is behind him, at least in terms of winning.

OK. Let me get out of the predicting business.

My real point is this: If Rafa has three losses on clay in one season, we can psssibly
say his best on clay is behind him; but, definitely not until then.

As good as Rafa is on clay, I don't think there's a formula for deciding when he's in decline, or what that means. Obviously, he's not going to win everything on clay this year, but I believe he only had one year when he did. Anyway, as I mentioned with Federer, the King of Grass, he had a couple of fallow years, then won Wimby again. I suspect with Rafa, the clay season will get bumpier, but won't describe a steep decline, or anything that can be defined as "the moment" when it's over. Broken has said that he predicts a time when Rafa loses RG, then wins it again. That's not at all unreasonable. And I don't think a loss to Ferrer on a bad day tells us that this is the moment when it ends. (In fairness, of course, that is not what you're saying, GSM.)

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I think predicting 3 clay losses is still a stretch. Your own argument is how definitively he's won over the years, citing stats. Surely RG is up a bit for grabs this year, as it has been since '09. And yet Nadal has still been the only one to grab it. If you're saying we should wait and see, then I don't think you can say he will probably lose RG this year. If nothing else, he'll protect RG. As you say, it's too early to declare that Rafa's best on clay is behind him, at least in terms of winning.

OK. Let me get out of the predicting business.

My real point is this: If Rafa has three losses on clay in one season, we can psssibly
say his best on clay is behind him; but, definitely not until then.

As good as Rafa is on clay, I don't think there's a formula for deciding when he's in decline, or what that means. Obviously, he's not going to win everything on clay this year, but I believe he only had one year when he did. Anyway, as I mentioned with Federer, the King of Grass, he had a couple of fallow years, then won Wimby again. I suspect with Rafa, the clay season will get bumpier, but won't describe a steep decline, or anything that can be defined as "the moment" when it's over. Broken has said that he predicts a time when Rafa loses RG, then wins it again. That's not at all unreasonable. And I don't think a loss to Ferrer on a bad day tells us that this is the moment when it ends. (In fairness, of course, that is not what you're saying, GSM.)

Actually, Rafa had two years without a single loss on clay for the entire year. They are
2006 and 2010. People forget 2006, as Rafa (and Roger) skipped Hamburg after an
epic final in Rome.

Anyway, the bottomline is this. Since 2005 Rafa never had more than 2 losses per
season on clay. So, we surely cannot say Rafa's best on clay is behind him until
he at least manages to lose three matches on clay in the same year [Since, you
seem to be weak in logic, I must also mention that this does not mean that we can
say his best on clay is behind him just because he had an year with three losses].

 

[golds girl]

It is hard to be a Top 5er on these boards isn't it. It seems as though you can't just have a bad day. If you do, it means:
1) you're a has-been and washed up
2) coach needs to be changed stat
3) physical and mental maladies must be immediately addressed.

I have not seen the match but from the postings it seems as though Nadal was error-prone and Ferrer played very well. Sounds like a bad day to me. I don't need to find excuses for Nadal as I'm a rational human being who knows it's a fellow human being out there, not a robot.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

still..rafa/wafa has a nice cosy atp500 clay tourney in sunny Barcelona to cheer himself up on.

bound to win that one surely ?..who else is playing ? prob a load of lower ranked dirtball dweebs.