Novak's 2014 spring offensive and the battle for Paris

[Denis]

Up to Roland Garros (including it) Novak has 4860 points to defend. Rafa has 7030 points to defend.

Rafa is 920 points in the lead with Novak still playing Davis Cup. I think we might get to see a real hunt for no 1 this spring! On top of that I imagine that the battle for Paris might be the decisive victory to take the no 1 spot back.

Especially considering that almost half of the season will be on hardcourt.

 

[Moxie]

Not to be a buzz-kill, but Rafa has no points to defend in Oz or before. So when he wins it…2000 free ones, baby! :angel: :hug

 

[Denis]

I took that into account. He still has 7030 points to defend up till Paris.

 

[Moxie]

(I thought you were on your bike.) Yes, but he'll be in the meat-and-potatoes of his year, so I don't think the big showdown comes in Paris, which Nadal will be holding onto tightly with his multi-taped fingers, come early June. (Where is the icon where I show my 'guns?' Oh, see avatar, and pretend they're mine. LOL!)

 

[Denis]

It's not so much about what Nadal can do (7030 points is almost max for him in this part of the season 60% of his points), but it is more what Novak can do. And if he wins AO, he can do significantly better than last year.

 

[Moxie]

Oh, I get it. Just puffing things up for my team! (That's why the reference to showing of my 'guns.') Gotta keep the spirit alive!

"And if he wins AO, he can do significantly better than last year." He won the AO last year, so I'm not sure why that would change his dynamic. It has kick-started his year the last 3, but is no proof of what comes after. The only real game-changer would be NOT defending, n'est pas? :huh:

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I want a different AO Champion next year. I will be happy with anyone, even
Dennis Istomin.

 

[Iona16]

I want a different AO Champion next year. I will be happy with anyone, even
Dennis Istomin.

I've got my fingers crossed for Andy.

 

[Mastoor]

We will probably see No1e 3.0 in 2014

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

someone from the AO mentioned them putting down a quicker HC for the 2014 tourney..

hope they do it..:

 

[reddy]

We will probably see No1e 3.0 in 2014

No3e ?

 

[Fiero425]

I want a different AO Champion next year. I will be happy with anyone, even
Dennis Istomin.

I've got my fingers crossed for Andy.

Like Rafa at the FO and Federer at Wimbledon, I think Nole wants to "own a major!" No other male has won Aussie Open 3 straight years in the Open era with a 4th to eclipse most top players for all time greatness "down under!" I had a thread earlier this year where we assigned different past stars to have major trophy renamed after them and I chose Nole for the men and M. Court on the ladies'! :clap

 

[Denis]

We will probably see No1e 3.0 in 2014

I'm sensing it too Mastoor.

By the way, I made a mistake in my calculations Novak only has 4860 points to defend up till Paris. That's more than 2000 less than Rafa.

 

[Kieran]

I'm looking at Rafa taking Oz.

And he has zero points to defend in Miami.

He'll be business as usual on clay.

And he has nothing to defend at Wimbledon.

If Novak plays well early year, he might be able to make it a race again on the summer hards, or after, but I expect Rafa to start next year very strongly and extend his lead at the top.

By the way, I love the optimism of Denis and the Nole fans - it's like looking into a mirror!

 

[Denis]

^ You're missing the point. It doesn't matter what Rafa does as he barely can improve on last year. Do you really think he will defend Chile, Sao Paolo, Mexico City? AND play the AO, IW and Miami? I hope so! Means he will be gassed when RG starts.

What matters is what Novak will do. And he has a lot of opportunities coming up. Only 4860 points to defend. Much room for improvement.

 

[Kieran]

I think Nole will lose points in Oz, and Rafa will gain.

He'll gain in Monte Carlo and can obviously dominate the clay season

And he can gain big time at W.

As for the small clay tourneys in February, he can win them without gassing himself.

You're looking at it as all chances to gain for Novak - ghats what I'm doing, but for Rafa!

I think he'll win the Oz open and after this it's irrelevant...

 

[Denis]

I think Nole will lose points in Oz, and Rafa will gain.

He'll gain in Monte Carlo and can obviously dominate the clay season

And he can gain big time at W.

As for the small clay tourneys in February, he can win them without gassing himself.

You're looking at it as all chances to gain for Novak - ghats what I'm doing, but for Rafa!

I think he'll win the Oz open and after this it's irrelevant...

:laydownlaughing :lolz: :clap

 

[nehmeth]

Kind of dumb to mock what Kieran wrote. It's no more of a stretch than what you conjecture - maybe less when you think about it. They played one of the toughest battles ever in Oz in 2012. Who's to say after the way Ralf beat up Nole on the American hard courts that he won't go to Oz and do the same there?

Novak had a great end of year run again this year. But all that does is restore a little confidence for 2014. In no way does it make up for his failures at the French Open, Wimbledon and New York. He was either unable to or just didn't step it up where it matters most. At best, this year end run allows us fans to be hopeful rather than overly optimistic.

 

[Denis]

Kind of dumb to mock what Kieran wrote. It's no more of a stretch than what you conjecture - maybe less when you think about it. They played one of the toughest battles ever in Oz in 2012. Who's to say after the way Ralf beat up Nole on the American hard courts that he won't go to Oz and do the same there?

Kieran is saying Nadal will win all events up to RG. Basically an improvement of Novak's 2011 start. You think that is realistic? :s

I'm definitely not making such a claim for Novak. Just pointing out he has 2180 points less to defend up till RG with half of the tourneys played on hards. And I think Novak has a good chance on clay too.

 

[Kieran]

No, I didn't say that. I didn't say he'd win IW or Miami. I think he'll win Oz - though of course, he might not - but on clay?

Business as usual...