Novak v 3.0 beta - preview

Mastoor

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As you know many tennis fans stop watching past USO and if you are one of them too bad, you missed to see glimpses of the future in No1e's performances in Beijing and Shanghai.

At both tournaments No1e showed set of improvements that if he manages to have condensed and to execute consistently in his matches, he will be able to have 2014 to dwarf his 2011 season.

What are those improvements in No1e's game?

First of all during the Beijing tournament No1e showed huge improvement in his service. This was obvious in his singles and also doubles matches partnering Wawrinka. No1e has many nayesayers who would love to dispute this and they may say that the quality of the returners wasn't the best (Rosol, Verdasco, Gasquet, Querrey, Haas, Meyer) however the final he played against one of the very best, so the quality of No1e's service can't be disputed. To many, No1e's service was better than his childhood idol's.

In Shanghai, No1e's service wasn't as brilliant but he was obviously shifted his focus to other elements of his game. Still, he had up to 10 aces per match and many quick service games.


What became obvious to everyone watching No1e's matches in Shanghai is that No1e started playing more on the net and that he is excellent there having success rate of 18 to 19 in 20 points, which is 90 to 95%. This is against all high quality top 40 opponents who are most or all but perhaps Granollers (Fognini, Monfils, Tsonga, del Potro) well known by their passing shots which guarantees that No1e's success rate on the net of above 90% does mean that his net game is simply that - outstanding!.

Is this all, improved service and improved net game? Not at all.

Shot selection too. Many tennis fans noticed in last two years that No1e was lacking shots he was once famous for, namely down the line and inside out shots from both wings. In last 2 years, No1e either didn't hit them or would do with not much power and hope in them, just to continue the point, but only sometimes to make a winner or to force his opponent to error what was often his main weapon in past. Not in Asia in last two weeks. No1e was again hitting down the line and inside out winners from both sides "just like that" (read - frequently and with huge success and authority).

Keep in mind that he is also the best returner ever and that he's been working hard on improving his fitness.

To summarize, in 2014 in No1e we will potentially have someone with yet unseen combination of tennis skills, some people say No1e v 3.0.
 

Front242

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And he didn't fire any overheads into the net which is always good :D He looked razor sharp alright apart from the 2nd set yesterday where it appeared he was either half cut (drunk) or his blood sugar levels were low. Weird balance issues there. Topping 2011 is going to be hard, probably impossible but it's good to be optimistic and I like what I saw from him. Defending two straight tournaments is impressive. I personally see him as a red hot favourite to defend the WTF and Del Potro is gonna be a factor there too. Though many will say this is Nadal's best shot at winning the WTF (and it is with Fed struggling and Murray out) I just don't see it happening based on the last two tournaments but we'll see.
 

Mastoor

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Well, No1e's fans think that the end of the year is for No1e mostly to 1. try to get back to #1 2. to win DC. You see it as opportunity for him to defend WTF (if he stays healthy he will do I believe), what I see this Autumn is that he is preparing to outclass himself and everyone else in the process.
 

Kieran

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It's very touching that you still call him "No1e", it really is, and of course, to you he's always #1, so this is fine. And yes, some fans stop watching after the US Open - thought you were one of them, in fact! You were missed. But Nole played great at the end of last year too. He was getting equal results then and he won the WTF, but this year wasn't an improvement on 2011.

Now, I would never write him off because we've seen him play spectacularly before and he's clearly in irresistible form right now, and on a surface that allows him to. When he reaches other surfaces his game maybe doesn't click so well. It has been a pleasing feature of his game that he approaches the net more and I thought he was going to use that more in the US Open final, but he's far from a complete net player and his overhead is still WTA levels when he needs better.

Also, he's brittle. I mean, he can be a tough guy with a huge roar, but he can be meek. He can be overcome, and this is what he needs to get back, because the difference in 2011 was mainly mental: he just wouldn't go away and this gave him the confidence to stay out there and undermine Nadal. I like your post and I think it all remains to be seen, and hopefully these two great players will both raise the level of the sport - again - and that you'll actually hang around after Nole's losses, as well as his victories, because the forum needs balance and the view of many fans, not just fans of Fedal...
 

JesuslookslikeBorg

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its not no1e..but more like no2e.

a bit dubious but does my pac-man chum say yes ?..>> :approved: he does.
 

Murat Baslamisli

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Though I agree with what Mastoor says, the word "improvement" needs a bit more longer time span and a bigger sample size. Nole had a great serving week and a net game this last 2 weeks, especially against Delpo, but he has to keep it up for at least half a season for me to buy it as a solid improvement. Maybe he will. Maybe his net game has improved forever, but until I see him do it for a good chunk of the season, I will say "He had a good volleying week".
 

Moxie

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Novak is definitely looking on very fine form in the last 2 tournaments, and seems to have his focus and mojo going. Perhaps knowing he was going to lose his #1 ranking kicked him into high gear. I read that he is speaking outright that he wants to get his 2011 level back. He's looking fearsome for the rest of the season, for sure.
 

Riotbeard

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He does seem to have admitted finally that not all is going well, which necessary to start getting the necessary fire back for next season. A dominant fall will definitely put him into a good position for the Aussie.
 

Moxie

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Riotbeard said:
He does seem to have admitted finally that not all is going well, which necessary to start getting the necessary fire back for next season. A dominant fall will definitely put him into a good position for the Aussie.

This is exactly what I'm worried about, to be honest. He's a confidence player, and he seems to be feeling it now. Whatever happens at the WTF, Serbia is favored in the DC final, and he'll feed off of that, too.
 

DarthFed

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1972Murat said:
Though I agree with what Mastoor says, the word "improvement" needs a bit more longer time span and a bigger sample size. Nole had a great serving week and a net game this last 2 weeks, especially against Delpo, but he has to keep it up for at least half a season for me to buy it as a solid improvement. Maybe he will. Maybe his net game has improved forever, but until I see him do it for a good chunk of the season, I will say "He had a good volleying week".

Exactly. Nole has perhaps the worst overheads I've seen on the ATP tour and that is no exaggeration. And for someone who is not looking to come into net that much, the overheads become an even bigger deal. We've seen it play a big factor in big losses (think RG '13 and Olympics '08 for starters). It will take more than a good week to point out noticeable improvement.

The other thing about Nole the last 2 years goes beyond what shots he can and can't hit. He has brought his worst stuff to the biggest stages. He won AO where his game is way above everyone else, but the ones that are close to 50-50 he has been going down too easy. A resurgence in the Fall here can help him get going again but it's safe to say this AO has potential long-term implications if he fails to defend it.
 

Riotbeard

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Moxie629 said:
Riotbeard said:
He does seem to have admitted finally that not all is going well, which necessary to start getting the necessary fire back for next season. A dominant fall will definitely put him into a good position for the Aussie.

This is exactly what I'm worried about, to be honest. He's a confidence player, and he seems to be feeling it now. Whatever happens at the WTF, Serbia is favored in the DC final, and he'll feed off of that, too.

Your apocalypse, my paradise.
 

Moxie

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Riotbeard said:
Moxie629 said:
Riotbeard said:
He does seem to have admitted finally that not all is going well, which necessary to start getting the necessary fire back for next season. A dominant fall will definitely put him into a good position for the Aussie.

This is exactly what I'm worried about, to be honest. He's a confidence player, and he seems to be feeling it now. Whatever happens at the WTF, Serbia is favored in the DC final, and he'll feed off of that, too.

Your apocalypse, my paradise.

I know, I KNOW! And that's why I said it. Just to be honest. I can favor my player without being blinkered or blustering. Many reasonable posters have said that we have to see the next month + before any reasonable predictions can be made, going forward. Who would have thought that Djokovic would return to such superb form so quickly? (OK, a fan, but whatever...) Del Potro rising...yes, that was coming. Rafa's going to have to re-find his serve to make an impact in the next few tournaments. And with Murray back, early 2014, or all of it, could be very interesting.
 

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Moxie629 said:
This is exactly what I'm worried about, to be honest. He's a confidence player, and he seems to be feeling it now. Whatever happens at the WTF, Serbia is favored in the DC final, and he'll feed off of that, too.

We shall see, Moxie. He had all the confidence in the world when he was coming off huge wins in London (YEC), Melbourne and Monte Carlo only to fall apart for the next 6 months. Novak really puzzles me and two strong showings in Asia won't change that. Now he certainly deserves incredible credit for being an all-season player, for being the most consistent on tour, be it clay, Indoors, grass, medium or fast paced hardcourts, it doesn't matter, he's always in the semis or finals at the very least which is a huge testament to his game and greatness.

But ever since 2012 the problem remains it's pretty much Russian Roulette whether he will win or lose those semis/finals. That's why I think DarthFed made a very good point when he said he has brought his worst stuff to the biggest stages in 2012 and 2013. Twice in Paris, twice in Wimbledon and twice in New York in the defining moments when it really mattered. Plus the Olympics.

I'm glad he responded this well so far during the Asian swing and I really hope he finishes the season on a high but I'm not kidding or fooling myself. As Murat already pointed out, the sample size is way too small. It might sound harsh but he should never have let it happen in the first place that tournaments like Beijing and Shanghai become consolation prizes for his wounded confidence.
 

Front242

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NADAL2005RG said:
Best 3 players of 2014 = Del Potro, Djokovic, Monfils?

What, no Nadal? :rolleyes: Monfils? Nah. Most likely Nadal, Djokovic and Murray assuming he comes back strong from surgery. If Fed can bounce back maybe he'll have a good year too. Monfils is way too streaky and inconsistent and there's always a high chance he'll injure himself. The guy has so much potential but he's made of glass.
 
N

NADAL2005RG

Good. That's a relief. For a minute there I thought the Asian Swing results determined the following year's elite.
 

Kieran

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I don't buy the Davis Cup as being a humongous spur for Novak - again. It happened before but if they win the DC this time, it might just as easily remind him that he rose to the heights and didn't sustain them. Nobody could by the way, but a great year like 2011 can become a monkey on a guy's back too.

NADAL2005RG, that was a definite touch! :lolz:
 

brokenshoelace

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Actually, if people just bothered to look at the tennis instead of claiming that the world was coming to an end because Novak's results were on a decline, they'd have noticed that he has served better this year than he has in pretty much his entire career. Yes, other aspects of his game didn't click as well, but he's been serving excellent all year round, not just in Shanghai or Beijing. Watch his Wimbledon run all the way to the final.

As far as his net game goes, yeah, keep singing its praise until he misses the next overhead at a crucial time. His net game looks the same. He still does some things well, and some things mediocre by his standards (around the net that is). His high success rate is due to excellent approaches, not unlike Nadal.

"To many, No1e's service was better than his childhood idol's."

Okay, who are these "many" you speak of, because I'm pretty sure they know nothing about tennis, or happen to be lacking something essential between the ears. Novak's childhood idol was Sampras, and no, his serve, not this past week, not the week before, not next week, and not in a million years will be better, or remotely close to being as good as that of his childhood idol.

Agreed about his execution of his down the line backhand though. It's usually his bread and butter, but it's been a shot that has gone missing in key moments this year. Recapturing the feel on that particular shot can only do him good in the future.
 
N

NADAL2005RG

I wonder where Djokovic's China/Shanghai form ranks compared with his 2012 AO form.
 

Front242

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NADAL2005RG said:
I wonder where Djokovic's China/Shanghai form ranks compared with his 2012 AO form.

Can't really compare form based on different surfaces imo. Assuming the conditions and balls stayed the same or very close you could compare AO 2013 with AO 2012, for example, but these Asian hardcourts are different to the AO surface. So far though Djokovic is playing very well but different bounce, slightly faster in Asia I'd imagine so less time for opponents to defensively run down everything. I've no idea how much different they are speed wise but definitely they looked faster to me in Asia than the AO.