Novak in 2016

[lacatch]

I know we're not quite done yet with this season, but based on what we've seen this year and on history, what do u expect slam count and otherwise from Novak? I'll take a shot: I think it's going to be very difficult to replicate 2015 next year, but I think he's both highly motivated and disciplined, and playing at an astronomical level when he needs to. With no one on the immediate horizon to challenge him, I expect him to bag at least 3 slams next year plus a slew of masters. Not quite 2015, but not a significant drop either.

 

[herios]

Win RG. You could hear him in his speech today, he is already thinking about it. The rest will come along.

 

[nehmeth]

This year, the one guy who has pushed Novak all year - is Novak. And while he is the first to demur whenever someone asks him about Roger's record, I am beginning to believe that his goal is 18.

As long as he stays healthy, I think he will continue to work on improving incrementally on all levels, and then go out and play the matches as they come. The French Open is the top priority. Playing his best and winning everything else is a close second.

He wins at least two slams and four masters next year... probably more. Maybe a whole lot more.

 

[Mile]

2 slams at least, I think 3 are very possible again.

Masters will be at some 4-5 maybe, due to Olympics.

 

[El Dude]

I think he'll drop a bit, but not massively so. The entire tour next year will be tougher. the 1989-93 gen will bounce back, perhaps hugely so, and the younger generation (b. 1994-98) will keep getting better and we'll start seeing one or several of them head-hunting top 10 players. I don't think we'll see the emergence of a new elite player, but we'll have several players born in the 90s vying for the top 10 by year's end, and a whole bunch in the top 20-30. It probably won't be until 2018 or later that we see an actual regime change, but we will start seeing a compositional change of the top 20 towards younger players.

Novak will remain an easy #1, but a lot depends upon how much Rafa can get back. Roland Garros might be tougher this year as Rafa will be just as hungry as Novak to win that title, perhaps even more so. Consider what's at stake for Rafa: Assuming he doesn't win AO, if he can't win RG then he may never win another Slam. I think he'll have a strong clay season and that whatever round they meet in, the true final will be Rafa-Novak.

Anyhow, I think Novak will win either 2 or 3 Slams and 3-5 Masters. We might see a similar slip as we saw from Roger in 2006 to 2007, where his Slam and WTF results were the same but everywhere else declined. Still, no matter how unassailable Novak's reign seems right now, it is hard to imagine that he'll win three Slams two years in a row. So much can happen. But I'd be surprised if he won less than 2 and didn't finish #1 again.

 

[nehmeth]

The entire tour next year will be tougher. the 1989-93 gen will bounce back, perhaps hugely so, and the younger generation (b. 1994-98) will keep getting better and we'll start seeing one or several of them head-hunting top 10 players.

E.D., enjoyed your post. This stood out to me. I know we're in the prediction phase, and I am also hopeful that we will see more from the younger generation. However, the last few years the older players are the ones winning more, and I was wondering what makes you think that trend will reverse itself next year.

 

[herios]

The entire tour next year will be tougher. the 1989-93 gen will bounce back, perhaps hugely so, and the younger generation (b. 1994-98) will keep getting better and we'll start seeing one or several of them head-hunting top 10 players.

E.D., enjoyed your post. This stood out to me. I know we're in the prediction phase, and I am also hopeful that we will see more from the younger generation. However, the last few years the older players are the ones winning more, and I was wondering what makes you think that trend will reverse itself next year.

I am with you on all counts. I am thinking Nole could have a little less productive year than this one. I am sure he will focus down on the RG and Olympic title, and that will be coming with a letdown at Wimbledon and USO, or at least less hunger in those two instances. If he takes AO, RG and RG and the Oly I will be a happy camper. Those 3 titles plus a few masters will keep him in the lead.
I am also wondering if ED is not too enthusiastic about the generation following the lost one.
They disappointed me after the USO, with one exception, Chung, who managed to climb on the strength oh his results on the challenger tour. However, he is still unproven on the main tour.
Post USO, all of Kyrgios, Coric, Kokkinakis and Zverev were underwhelming for me. That period of the year, when the more seniors are supposed to be gassed out offers a great opportunity to sneak through, like Coric did the year before. Instead of improving, they flat lined or went backwards.
But this is a thread about Nole next year, I will talk about the teenagers in another thread later.

 

[El Dude]

The entire tour next year will be tougher. the 1989-93 gen will bounce back, perhaps hugely so, and the younger generation (b. 1994-98) will keep getting better and we'll start seeing one or several of them head-hunting top 10 players.

E.D., enjoyed your post. This stood out to me. I know we're in the prediction phase, and I am also hopeful that we will see more from the younger generation. However, the last few years the older players are the ones winning more, and I was wondering what makes you think that trend will reverse itself next year.

Here's my thinking. The 89-93 generation was improving, albeit gradually, through 2014 but then took a step back in 2015. I am guessing that this not only reverses, but that they continue on from the 2014 development. There's a handful of this group that I think will all be in or near the top 20 next year: Raonic, Nishikori, Dimitrov, Thiem, Vesely, Sock, Goffin, Tomic. No great players in the mix, but I see all of them being around the top 20 for the next half decade, with maybe a few of them in the top 10 and one or two surprise Slams. I mean someone's gotta do it, right? :-/

The 94-98 generation will keep improving and I think we'll start seeing more upsets from them, players like Coric taking out players like Berdych - that sort of thing. But as I said, they're still a couple years away from making serious noise.

The entire tour next year will be tougher. the 1989-93 gen will bounce back, perhaps hugely so, and the younger generation (b. 1994-98) will keep getting better and we'll start seeing one or several of them head-hunting top 10 players.

E.D., enjoyed your post. This stood out to me. I know we're in the prediction phase, and I am also hopeful that we will see more from the younger generation. However, the last few years the older players are the ones winning more, and I was wondering what makes you think that trend will reverse itself next year.

I am with you on all counts. I am thinking Nole could have a little less productive year than this one. I am sure he will focus down on the RG and Olympic title, and that will be coming with a letdown at Wimbledon and USO, or at least less hunger in those two instances. If he takes AO, RG and RG and the Oly I will be a happy camper. Those 3 titles plus a few masters will keep him in the lead.
I am also wondering if ED is not too enthusiastic about the generation following the lost one.
They disappointed me after the USO, with one exception, Chung, who managed to climb on the strength oh his results on the challenger tour. However, he is still unproven on the main tour.
Post USO, all of Kyrgios, Coric, Kokkinakis and Zverev were underwhelming for me. That period of the year, when the more seniors are supposed to be gassed out offers a great opportunity to sneak through, like Coric did the year before. Instead of improving, they flat lined or went backwards.
But this is a thread about Nole next year, I will talk about the teenagers in another thread later.

Well part of it is in comparison to the 89-93 group - the 94-98 is in much better shape at a similar point in their history. I'll share more of my research later on. But if the 89-93 group is arguably the worst generation of the Open Era, the 94-98 generation looks more like a not-great-but-not-terrible generation like the 74-78 generation. In other words, I'm optimistic mainly in relation to the 89-93 generation. I don't see any potential all-time greats (yet) but I'm not ruling it out, and I think several of them have a chance to win a Slam or three.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

The only thing that I am willing to safely predict is that Novak will be YE #1 at end of 2016 also.
That is a much safer bet than saying he will win 2 slams or 4 masters or anything else.

 

[isabelle]

To have twins like Mr Vavrinec