NOVAK--A REFLECTION

[shawnbm]

It is not lost on me that he was frightening close to winning another calendar year slam this year like two years ago. He has now surpassed Roger yet again, both in major semifinals and finals contested over a career and likewise broke free of a tie with Federer for most years (3) winning at least 3 majors in a calendar year. He also (this ear) moved from second past Federer on the career tiebreak win-loss record and percentage of tiebreak wins over the long haul. He has surpassed Roger and Rafa in year-end number one ranking record, and then we know about his Masters Shields records, his weeks at #1 on the ATP tour and a host of other records that are too numerous to set forth here. A lot of his major victories in finals have been over or through Roger and Rafa, as well as Andy and others like Stanislas (although that one in particular has posed unique problems for him). His 2011 and 2015 (hell, perhaps even this year and 2021) are right up there with Nadal in 2010 or 2013, Roger in 2005-2007 and Connors and McEnroe during their best years. So, all in all, what to say about the Serbian Slayer?

In the Open Era it is very hard for me to deny that he is the most accomplished ATP professional of them all. He has been so good for so long it is astounding. He is beating on far younger generations unmercifully (Roger and Rafa did too to be fair) and his upside is still way up even now, whereas one is retired and the other is closing in on that. I now believe that even with Carlitos, he has two or three, possibly more, he is more than capable of winning. That is simply mind-boggling at his age. Who else has been this good at this age or even since 30? I think he stands alone. His game has improved quite a bit since his first major in 2008. His service is better and more reliable, his return of serve is better than anyone else's likely in history (only Agassi and Connors can even be mentioned with his and they were not at his level), his volleying is up there and far better than before and his tactical play is stellar and likely far better than ten or so years ago. Then there is the stamina and will to win. He has come back from match point down in majors more than anyone I can recall (El Dude can share the specifics). His five set record has to be up there with the best of all time as well--he is quite clutch in the deciding set it seems to me. What to say about Novak Djokovic?

I will be interested in hearing what the gang has to say here, but I feel we have witnessed the single best player over the long haul on the men's tour. Whether Sampras or Federer at their peak would have beaten Nole on grass or hard courts, or the fact Rafa at his best on clay was largely unbeatable by anyone, is not the question. The reality is he has outperformed all of the others for longer and to a greater degree (he has far and away the most "big titles" as that is defined by the ATP) than all of the other greats--and this is no longer in dispute in any imaginable argument otherwise. We should enjoy him as he continues to extend all the great records he alone holds as he extends it into the future and recall we were there to see it. I said the same thing about Federer during his dominance and as to Nadal concerning his clay records, but Novak has clearly surpassed them both. A truly incredible athlete--remarkable.

 

[El Dude]

Nice one, Shawn. It is getting harder to support a "multiple GOAT" view at this point...Novak is pulling away from the pack enough, that I think more and more folks will accept his GOAT status, when all is said and done. As you say, it is a combination of peak and career longevity. At this point his career sort of looks like as if Bjorn Borg had the longevity of Jimmy Connors.

My current prediction for his final Slam count is 27, which is just crazy. I remember getting flack back in 2014 after he won his 7th or so, in predicting that he might equal Pete's record (or something like that). It seemed crazy to think that a 27-year old (Daniil's age) would have 6 or 7 more Slams in him...and he's actually won 17 more since.

Here's a crazy stat: His 12 Slam titles after turning 30 (!) are as many as Roger (4) and Rafa (8) combined. Here's the most Slams won after turning 30:

12 Novak
8 Rafa
4 Federer, Rosewall, Laver
2 Agassi, Wawrinka
1 Sampras, Gomez, Connors, Newcombe, Gimeno, Ashe

Anyhow, I'll see if I can find that stat about titles won after being down match point, but my main go-to stat sites don't have it, at least not that I saw on a cursory search. But yeah, that's my impression, though it is hard to tell if that's because of a few rather memorable ones (e.g. 2019 Wimbledon) or if Novak is really as extraordinary in defending match point as we think he is.

 

[Moxie]

Wow! He's won 50% of his Majors since turning 30.

 

[Fiero425]

It seemed like it was foretold many years ago we would be at this point! I still have a very vivid memory of a consensus of past greats that Novak had already surpassed Fedal in greatness after winning his 1st FO in 2016! The ct. then was 17-14-12 w/o Fedal Redux in 2017! They said there was little to really stop him even though he had to overcome more over the years in the way of injury, a Covid ban, & DQ @ USO! The longevity of the Big 3 is unprecedented and will probably keep them at the top for all time! The game is so fast & grueling now, I can't imagine any of these snowflakes being able to stay on the court long enough to break any of their records! Alcaraz is a great player! I'll give it up to him, but I can't see him holding up for 20 years! He has some legit competition in Medvedev, Sinner, Rune, Zverev, & Tsitsipas one of these days! Djokovic has 24, taking 3 majors in a season for the 4th time! What's to really stop him from winning 1 or 2 more for the next 3-4 years? He keeps himself fit & stretched, w/ a very selective schedule!

 

[Nadalfan2013]

Wow! He's won 50% of his Majors since turning 30.

 

[Kieran]

I’ve been thinking a lot about Novak winning 12 of his last 19 slams. The best he did at his actual peak was to win 11 out of 22 between 2011-2016. Roger won 12 from 17 slams between 2003-2007.

I don’t think Novak is better than he was 10 years ago, but having opportunities is another thing I’ve been thinking about, and like Roger in his years of complete dominance, opportunity presented itself and these boys are capable.

Also thinking of Larry Holmes a lot lately. Larry went 48 fights undefeated and approached the CYGS of boxing: Rocky Marciano’s 49. Larry blemished his record by a defeat to Michael Spinks, who’s probably more famous for having a 51 second quickie with Mike Tyson, or for having a brother who defeated Ali. Larry them must have thought feck it, and he had another 26 fights, losing 5 more, and inevitably sliding further away from comparisons with Rocky.

Marciano is not even considered to be the greatest heavyweight, but his record is untarnished and he has to be mentioned. But had Larry beaten Spinks, then retired undefeated, I still don’t think he’d have been compared with Rocky. Everything is about context and opportunity. Novak, by the way, is not Larry Holmes. He’s greater in our pantheon than Holmes is, in boxing. Novak is one of our very greatest.

That’s a great post, @shawnbm - you argued it perfectly. I enjoy reading your long form thoughts, when you get time to write them, very good stuff!

 

[don_fabio]

I think we can already talk about Novak as one of the best athletes ever. The man breaks all the records year after year and even though he clearly shows that his years are catching up with him, he constantly adapts and finds ways to win. That is the quality of the greatest ever. He hates losing more than anything.

In a way, I'm glad that he lost at Wimbledon, so he played USO relatively without pressure and won another slam where he lost so many times in the final. It is difficult to predict how many more slams there are in Novak, but this USO is certainly not his last. Every next slam he takes is a bonus, he could probably take another Wimbledon. I'll be happy if he gets to 25. The competition is there, they can beat him and we shouldn't expect another dream season like this, but I'm sure of one thing: in another year or two, Novak will still play in the semis and finals of slams if he stays healthy and once he is there he will always be a man to beat.

 

[Kieran]

Anyhow, I'll see if I can find that stat about titles won after being down match point, but my main go-to stat sites don't have it, at least not that I saw on a cursory search. But yeah, that's my impression, though it is hard to tell if that's because of a few rather memorable ones (e.g. 2019 Wimbledon) or if Novak is really as extraordinary in defending match point as we think he is.

I can’t think of many players who won a GS after being match point down. I know it happened, but seldom. Novak is occasionally blessed with the ability to laugh at himself at the right time. Often when he was match point down against Roger, it was as if he smiled and welcomed the challenge. I’m convinced that had he lost, the smile would remain. He’s the only great I’ve seen who faced match points that way. When Rafa missed that famous backhand in Australia, it was still only 30-all, but Novak was smiling. The fates are fickle, and often show a sense of humour. I think he alone among the 3 appreciates that.

He doesn’t always respond to pressure with a smile, as we know, but he has often achieved that very welcome state of freedom on big occasions, and very often that’s helped him to turn things around..

 

[tented]

I'll be happy if he gets to 25. The competition is there, they can beat him and we shouldn't expect another dream season like this, but I'm sure of one thing: in another year or two, Novak will still play in the semis and finals of slams if he stays healthy and once he is there he will always be a man to beat.

If by “the competition is there” you mean “Alcaraz” then I agree. If you mean anyone else, I don’t agree. At least in terms of big titles. Novak lost to Alcaraz at Wimbledon — one match all year, at all majors. Who else is going to stop him, even going forward the next year? Tsitsipas? Zverev? Ruud? Tiafoe? Fritz? See — I just made you laugh.

 

[shawnbm]

^^^^ Truth

 

[don_fabio]

If by “the competition is there” you mean “Alcaraz” then I agree. If you mean anyone else, I don’t agree. At least in terms of big titles. Novak lost to Alcaraz at Wimbledon — one match all year, at all majors. Who else is going to stop him, even going forward the next year? Tsitsipas? Zverev? Ruud? Tiafoe? Fritz? See — I just made you laugh.

Meddy has a decent shot on HC. Rune if healthy could be a challenge for aging Novak in RG (also HC?). Agree about the rest of the players you just mentioned, they are not good enough. I would also add Sinner, still not a threat to Novak.

 

[El Dude]

Regarding challenging Novak, it is crazy to think that Tsitsipas won two of their first three match-ups, but has lost the last nine, including two five-setters at Roland Garros in 2020-21. I know that bagging on Sissypuss has been done to death, but what a disappointment.

 

[rafanoy1992]

Regarding challenging Novak, it is crazy to think that Tsitsipas won two of their first three match-ups, but has lost the last nine, including two five-setters at Roland Garros in 2020-21. I know that bagging on Sissypuss has been done to death, but what a disappointment.

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It is why his slam final loss from two sets up was probably the most "devastating" out of the three players (Zverev and Medvedev).

With Zverev, he played bad and nervous tennis the whole match, so it wasn't a "shocking" loss even from two sets up.

With Medvedev, he already won the 2021 US Open prior to the 2022 AO Final AND he has somewhat redeemed himself in 2023.

But with Tsitsipas, it feels different. It feels like the air inside the balloon has been released and the balloon itself has duct tape in it. Another thing also is that he actually played really well in the 1st two sets of that final. He was fighting really hard especially in the 1st set TB. But ever since the 3rd set, Tsitsipas just mentally went away. And I feel like he has not recovered from that loss. What is interesting about the lack of fight is that at the 2021 AO, he handed Nadal's second loss from 2 sets up.

I am not saying that Tsitsipas would have been a world beater type of player if he would won that RG final (he still has major technical flaws), but at the very least we would see him in a different light and/or he would should more "fight" than whatever he is showing currently,