Nole's defeat in slam finals

[BIG3]

Nole's slam final record is far from stellar, which distanced him from Fedal. Will he become another Lendl with losing record in slam finals? Maybe losing record, because even in his prime, he rarely brought his best in finals. He is good enough and consistent enough to reach final WHILE struggled to win the trophy, ever since AO 2012. On the other hand, I am sure he will end with 10+ slams, but not that much about career slam after loss to Stan today. :cry

I watched every final of his dated back to 2007. Let us look into these 8 loss.

1. 2007 US Open vs Fed 6–7(4–7), 6–7(2–7), 4–6
2. 2010 US Open vs Rafa 4–6, 7–5, 4–6, 2–6
3. 2012 French Open vs Rafa 4–6, 3–6, 6–2, 5–7
4. 2012 USO vs Murray 6–7(10–12), 5–7, 6–2, 6–3, 2–6
5. 2013 Wimbledon vs Murray 4–6, 5–7, 4–6
6. 2013 USO vs Rafa 6–3, 5–7, 2–6, 4–6
7. 2014 French Open vs Rafa 6–3, 5–7, 2–6, 4–6
8. 2015 French Open vs Stan 6–4, 4–6, 3–6, 4–6

Though 2007 USO was straight set loss, it is the only one that Nole SHOULD HAVE won, but didn't because he choked at MULTIPLE key points. It was his virgin show in slam final and facing GOAT in his prime. He paid tuition.

Two loss to Murray. Nole lost to gusty wind in 2012 USO. It hurt more on Nole's precision/placement play than Murray. Murray can hit through wind better.

Four loss to Rafa. On 2 RG, neither of them played great, but Rafa B level on clay is better than Nole's B, without any doubt. On HC, conventionally thinking that Nole has upper hand. Nole didn't play bad on either of USO, except 4th set mental collapse 2013. Unfortunately, Rafa brought his career performance on these key finals, thus beat Nole fair and square. Nole played his A or A- game, Rafa simply played out of himself.

RG loss to Stan. Is it the most lopsided by winners department in all his finals?

Out of these 8 matches, I think he SHOULD HAVE taken 2007 and 2012 USO, but lost, in larger part to his own nerve (2007) and weather (2010). He revenged in 2011 USO though.

Did Nole under-perform in slam finals? What do you think?

 

[lacatch]

I think that Nole definitely choked far more in the past. These days in finals of Masters and GSs, he's far more likely to have a brief walkabout/loss-of-concentration than to lose the match entirely. As a Nole fan, I'm totally at peace with his loss today. I think it had almost everything to do with Stan's level and little to do with Nole's play. Hats off to Stan--end of story!

 

[Fiero425]

He may have underperformed, but who hasn't! Navratilova had the same problem in fact; making final after final winning half, but the thing is "you can't win them all!" I'm happy enough that Nole still has time to achieve his goals and take a FO! The way I see it, he may have won a couple of other titles that he shouldn't of due to luck and other circumstances! That final in 2011 USO wouldn't have been possible if he hadn't saved 2 MP's against Fed in the semi that he obviously stroked with his eyes closed! Everyone's been in this situation of being the fave, it's all set up for a quick major added to their totals, but upsets occur:

Jimmy Connors was set up to win '75 USO after Orantes played into the night, well past midnight to overcome a 2 set deficit to take out Vilas! He came out the next afternoon and played passively, but overcame the star power of Connors to win in straight sets! It happens!

 

[brokenshoelace]

Disagree that Novak should have won the US Open final against Roger. Yeah, he choked away key points in sets 1 and 2 but that pretty much confirms his inexperience coming up against a largely more experienced, more proven, and better player at that point. Federer had double digit slams then while Novak had zero. There's a reason what happened happened.

 

[brokenshoelace]

That said, it's true that being 8-8 in slam finals is a poor record for a player of his caliber, no matter how we look at it.

I think he should be given a complete pass for his first two losses in slam finals. The 2007 US Open final mentioned above and the 2010 US Open final. In case of the latter, that was the first time Novak rediscovered his slam form in a while and Nadal was just a better player back then, playing the best tennis of his career. Novak just wasn't ready. His game wasn't quite where it needed to be and his shaky serve was a big indicator.

After that it gets interesting. I think the conditions were the main determining factor in his loss to Rafa at the FO in 2012. It started out hot, which pretty much means no chance against Nadal, and Novak was really having a hard time timing the ball and finding his range. Then when conditions became cool, he started seeing the ball like a Basketball in set 3 and completely blew Nadal off the court. Rain forced the match to be stopped, they came out the following day in hot conditions, and Nadal did his thing. Keep in mind that mentally, it was easier for Nadal as the momentum was all Novak when the match was stopped and when they came out the next day, Nadal knew all he had to do is win a set and he's the champ. Mentally, that's a huge challenge for Novak because you're coming out for what is essentially another match knowing that if you lose a set you're out.

Conditions again played a part in his loss to Murray as the wind really affected him. When it calmed down, he raised his game. He did kinda fall apart in the final set though.

The 2013 loss to Murray at Wimbledon is probably his most inexcusable performance. Murray was playing better tennis then and looked more comfortable on grass (always did actually), but Novak was extremely poor.

I thought he played OK against Nadal at the US Open in 2013, but again it came to who's the more in form, confident player at that moment, which it often comes down to. He probably would have been disappointed in not winning the third set (which again comes back to form and confidence. It's not a coincidence Nadal played the big points better) and especially, being unable to put up any resistance after that.

I thought he was poor in last year's FO final all around. Disappointing performance, honestly. Nadal was vulnerable coming into that tournament and I'd argue of all the finals he played at RG, that was when he was there for the taking the most. Nevertheless, it turned out to be a hot day and you know what that means, especially that Nadal played some inspired tennis in sets 2 and 3.

Didn't think there was much he could have done against Stan. Sometimes, $hit happens.

 

[Kieran]

I was at the match in 2007 against Fed, and we all saw it. Nole carried himself well, but he was a relative greenhorn facing a bloke who was further down the line in experience. Nole had chances in every set, from memory, but was out of his league.

I think 8-8 isn't a great record in slam finals. He isn't Murray, where we can point at it and say, well, he got there! He done great to get there but look who he faced! Nole has often underperformed just when you want him to step up. Happened in the finals that Murray won, and it happened in some semi-finals too. Put against this, he often plays outrageously large to pull off a result, like the matches Fiero mentioned above. I still have him as a brittle player, occasionally untouchable, and often unreliable...

 

[DarthFed]

I'd separate it between matches he lost where he was understandably overwhelmed and then the rest. In the 1st category you have 2007 and 2010 USO and 2012 RG.

The others are all matches coming in that you figure Nole had at least a pretty solid chance in. For my money the worst were the 2 Murray matches. In one he was the big favorite but kind of stunk it up in the wind and then wilted in the 5th. At Wimbledon I expected Nole to lose a tough one but he went down easy in straights, blowing leads badly in all 3 sets. Yesterday may have been the most understandable of the losses given how Stan played even though Nole was the huge favorite going in. Last year was pretty poorly played for the most part as both he and Nadal had physical issues by the end. And in 2013 USO Nole took until the 2nd set to show up and then he got up 3-1 in the 3rd, disappeared for a few games and then Rafa took the 3rd set after a couple tough games at the end and then Nole gave up.

 

[Fiero425]

I'd separate it between matches he lost where he was understandably overwhelmed and then the rest. In the 1st category you have 2007 and 2010 USO and 2012 RG.

The others are all matches coming in that you figure Nole had at least a pretty solid chance in. For my money the worst were the 2 Murray matches. In one he was the big favorite but kind of stunk it up in the wind and then wilted in the 5th. At Wimbledon I expected Nole to lose a tough one but he went down easy in straights, blowing leads badly in all 3 sets. Yesterday may have been the most understandable of the losses given how Stan played even though Nole was the huge favorite going in. Last year was pretty poorly played for the most part as both he and Nadal had physical issues by the end. And in 2013 USO Nole took until the 2nd set to show up and then he got up 3-1 in the 3rd, disappeared for a few games and then Rafa took the 3rd set after a couple tough games at the end and then Nole gave up.

Nole has to be one of the unluckiest players in some of these situations! You have the opponent who's on a roll playing well, Nole pulls back just a little on his groundstrokes and the next thing you see, "he blinks" on long rallies! When that starts happening, he panics like any other player; S & V into a cannon, excessive drop-shotting, and not receiving any free points on serve, spinning them in! He's doomed psychologically and is guaranteed to lose! :cover

 

[Obsi]

I still have him as a brittle player, occasionally untouchable, and often unreliable...

Chris Evert was 18-16 in slam finals. Would you say she was a brittle player, often unreliable?

 

[Fiero425]

I still have him as a brittle player, occasionally untouchable, and often unreliable...

Chris Evert was 18-16 in slam finals. Would you say she was a brittle player, often unreliable?

Unfortunately I'd have to say Chris was unlucky enough to extend her career during the reign of a finely tuned Martina Navratilova! She may have not been brittle, but it was her mental strength that got her the titles she acquired! Plenty were more talented so it appears she got the most out of her limited athletic ability! Both were fortunate not to deal with severe injuries taking them out for extended periods which is routine these days! :nono :angel: :dodgy:

 

[BIG3]

That said, it's true that being 8-8 in slam finals is a poor record for a player of his caliber, no matter how we look at it.

I think he should be given a complete pass for his first two losses in slam finals. The 2007 US Open final mentioned above and the 2010 US Open final. In case of the latter, that was the first time Novak rediscovered his slam form in a while and Nadal was just a better player back then, playing the best tennis of his career. Novak just wasn't ready. His game wasn't quite where it needed to be and his shaky serve was a big indicator.

After that it gets interesting. I think the conditions were the main determining factor in his loss to Rafa at the FO in 2012. It started out hot, which pretty much means no chance against Nadal, and Novak was really having a hard time timing the ball and finding his range. Then when conditions became cool, he started seeing the ball like a Basketball in set 3 and completely blew Nadal off the court. Rain forced the match to be stopped, they came out the following day in hot conditions, and Nadal did his thing. Keep in mind that mentally, it was easier for Nadal as the momentum was all Novak when the match was stopped and when they came out the next day, Nadal knew all he had to do is win a set and he's the champ. Mentally, that's a huge challenge for Novak because you're coming out for what is essentially another match knowing that if you lose a set you're out.

Conditions again played a part in his loss to Murray as the wind really affected him. When it calmed down, he raised his game. He did kinda fall apart in the final set though.

The 2013 loss to Murray at Wimbledon is probably his most inexcusable performance. Murray was playing better tennis then and looked more comfortable on grass (always did actually), but Novak was extremely poor.

I thought he played OK against Nadal at the US Open in 2013, but again it came to who's the more in form, confident player at that moment, which it often comes down to. He probably would have been disappointed in not winning the third set (which again comes back to form and confidence. It's not a coincidence Nadal played the big points better) and especially, being unable to put up any resistance after that.

I thought he was poor in last year's FO final all around. Disappointing performance, honestly. Nadal was vulnerable coming into that tournament and I'd argue of all the finals he played at RG, that was when he was there for the taking the most. Nevertheless, it turned out to be a hot day and you know what that means, especially that Nadal played some inspired tennis in sets 2 and 3.

Didn't think there was much he could have done against Stan. Sometimes, $hit happens.

This is too generous to excuse Nole''s loss. Yes, I see that he lost to wind more than Murray in 2012 USO. But all four majors are played in summer time and supposed to be hot and dry. Is it too much to ask something like 2012 RG cool and wet? AO is the only final played in the evening. Is it the most critical factor helping him, compared his poor performance on the other three?

 

[the AntiPusher]

That said, it's true that being 8-8 in slam finals is a poor record for a player of his caliber, no matter how we look at it.

I think he should be given a complete pass for his first two losses in slam finals. The 2007 US Open final mentioned above and the 2010 US Open final. In case of the latter, that was the first time Novak rediscovered his slam form in a while and Nadal was just a better player back then, playing the best tennis of his career. Novak just wasn't ready. His game wasn't quite where it needed to be and his shaky serve was a big indicator.

After that it gets interesting. I think the conditions were the main determining factor in his loss to Rafa at the FO in 2012. It started out hot, which pretty much means no chance against Nadal, and Novak was really having a hard time timing the ball and finding his range. Then when conditions became cool, he started seeing the ball like a Basketball in set 3 and completely blew Nadal off the court. Rain forced the match to be stopped, they came out the following day in hot conditions, and Nadal did his thing. Keep in mind that mentally, it was easier for Nadal as the momentum was all Novak when the match was stopped and when they came out the next day, Nadal knew all he had to do is win a set and he's the champ. Mentally, that's a huge challenge for Novak because you're coming out for what is essentially another match knowing that if you lose a set you're out.

Conditions again played a part in his loss to Murray as the wind really affected him. When it calmed down, he raised his game. He did kinda fall apart in the final set though.

The 2013 loss to Murray at Wimbledon is probably his most inexcusable performance. Murray was playing better tennis then and looked more comfortable on grass (always did actually), but Novak was extremely poor.

I thought he played OK against Nadal at the US Open in 2013, but again it came to who's the more in form, confident player at that moment, which it often comes down to. He probably would have been disappointed in not winning the third set (which again comes back to form and confidence. It's not a coincidence Nadal played the big points better) and especially, being unable to put up any resistance after that.

I thought he was poor in last year's FO final all around. Disappointing performance, honestly. Nadal was vulnerable coming into that tournament and I'd argue of all the finals he played at RG, that was when he was there for the taking the most. Nevertheless, it turned out to be a hot day and you know what that means, especially that Nadal played some inspired tennis in sets 2 and 3.

Didn't think there was much he could have done against Stan. Sometimes, $hit happens.

Preach :angel::clap

 

[the AntiPusher]

I'd separate it between matches he lost where he was understandably overwhelmed and then the rest. In the 1st category you have 2007 and 2010 USO and 2012 RG.

The others are all matches coming in that you figure Nole had at least a pretty solid chance in. For my money the worst were the 2 Murray matches. In one he was the big favorite but kind of stunk it up in the wind and then wilted in the 5th. At Wimbledon I expected Nole to lose a tough one but he went down easy in straights, blowing leads badly in all 3 sets. Yesterday may have been the most understandable of the losses given how Stan played even though Nole was the huge favorite going in. Last year was pretty poorly played for the most part as both he and Nadal had physical issues by the end. And in 2013 USO Nole took until the 2nd set to show up and then he got up 3-1 in the 3rd, disappeared for a few games and then Rafa took the 3rd set after a couple tough games at the end and then Nole gave up.

In regards to the 2013 USO, he didn't give up, Rafa broke Novak's will and spirit(very similar to what Stan did yesterday)

 

[Federberg]

^I wouldn't necessarily categorise Lendl as a pushover and his record is looking more and more similar to Novaks. In fact one could argue that Lendl and Djokovic have a great deal in common, and I'm not just talking about their slam final records. They both were late entrants into golden ages, Lendl joining Borg, Macenroe and Connors (how come we never include Wilander?), and Novak of course joining Fedal.

I want to say Lendl differs in that most of the losses were early on, so perhaps he has more of an excuse than Novak? But I'm not even sure that's the case. If we say that Novak's prime started in 2011, he still doesn't come out smelling of roses. Personally I'll hold off judgement until his career is over, he may yet turn it around. No question though... a 50% finals conversion rate is.... wobbly

 

[the AntiPusher]

I'd separate it between matches he lost where he was understandably overwhelmed and then the rest. In the 1st category you have 2007 and 2010 USO and 2012 RG.

The others are all matches coming in that you figure Nole had at least a pretty solid chance in. For my money the worst were the 2 Murray matches. In one he was the big favorite but kind of stunk it up in the wind and then wilted in the 5th. At Wimbledon I expected Nole to lose a tough one but he went down easy in straights, blowing leads badly in all 3 sets. Yesterday may have been the most understandable of the losses given how Stan played even though Nole was the huge favorite going in. Last year was pretty poorly played for the most part as both he and Nadal had physical issues by the end. And in 2013 USO Nole took until the 2nd set to show up and then he got up 3-1 in the 3rd, disappeared for a few games and then Rafa took the 3rd set after a couple tough games at the end and then Nole gave up.

Nole has to be one of the unluckiest players in some of these situations! You have the opponent who's on a roll playing well, Nole pulls back just a little on his groundstrokes and the next thing you see, "he blinks" on long rallies! When that starts happening, he panics like any other player; S & V into a cannon, excessive drop-shotting, and not receiving any free points on serve, spinning them in! He's doomed psychologically and is guaranteed to lose! :cover

I don't know about "has to be one of the unluckiest players". The AO 2012 win over Rafa was very fortunate for him and it stings for the Rafa fans just like the 09 US0 loss to JMDP for the FedFans.

 

[Kieran]

I still have him as a brittle player, occasionally untouchable, and often unreliable...

Chris Evert was 18-16 in slam finals. Would you say she was a brittle player, often unreliable?

No. But you're basing this on the stats, I base my view of him being brittle and "often unreliable" on watching the man. Chrissy was always reliable, just sometimes she wasn't good enough. Novak was often good enough, just didn't bring it when he needed to...

 

[the AntiPusher]

^I wouldn't necessarily categorise Lendl as a pushover. In fact one could argue that Lendl and Djokovic have a great deal in common, and I'm not just talking about their slam final records. They both were late entrants into golden ages, Lendl joining Borg, Macenroe and Connors (how come we never include Wilander?), and Novak of course joining Fedal.

I want to say Lendl differs in that most of the losses were early on, so perhaps he has more of an excuse than Novak? But I'm not even sure that's the case. If we say that Novak's prime started in 2011, he still doesn't come out smelling of roses. Personally I'll hold off judgement until his career is over, he may yet turn it around. No question though... a 50% finals conversion rate is.... wobbly

Lendl wasn't a push over but he played against 3 players who had both a higher tennis IQ and skill set than he did prior to 1985

 

[Federberg]

^I wouldn't necessarily categorise Lendl as a pushover. In fact one could argue that Lendl and Djokovic have a great deal in common, and I'm not just talking about their slam final records. They both were late entrants into golden ages, Lendl joining Borg, Macenroe and Connors (how come we never include Wilander?), and Novak of course joining Fedal.

I want to say Lendl differs in that most of the losses were early on, so perhaps he has more of an excuse than Novak? But I'm not even sure that's the case. If we say that Novak's prime started in 2011, he still doesn't come out smelling of roses. Personally I'll hold off judgement until his career is over, he may yet turn it around. No question though... a 50% finals conversion rate is.... wobbly

Lendl wasn't a push over but he played against 3 players who had both a higher tennis IQ and skill set than he did prior to 1985

Hi AP, I edited my post, but you responded quickly. But we're in agreement anyway!

 

[the AntiPusher]

^I wouldn't necessarily categorise Lendl as a pushover. In fact one could argue that Lendl and Djokovic have a great deal in common, and I'm not just talking about their slam final records. They both were late entrants into golden ages, Lendl joining Borg, Macenroe and Connors (how come we never include Wilander?), and Novak of course joining Fedal.

I want to say Lendl differs in that most of the losses were early on, so perhaps he has more of an excuse than Novak? But I'm not even sure that's the case. If we say that Novak's prime started in 2011, he still doesn't come out smelling of roses. Personally I'll hold off judgement until his career is over, he may yet turn it around. No question though... a 50% finals conversion rate is.... wobbly

Lendl wasn't a push over but he played against 3 players who had both a higher tennis IQ and skill set than he did prior to 1985

Hi AP, I edited my post, but you responded quickly. But we're in agreement anyway!

Righteous FB, no worries :celeb::celeb:

 

[DarthFed]

I'd separate it between matches he lost where he was understandably overwhelmed and then the rest. In the 1st category you have 2007 and 2010 USO and 2012 RG.

The others are all matches coming in that you figure Nole had at least a pretty solid chance in. For my money the worst were the 2 Murray matches. In one he was the big favorite but kind of stunk it up in the wind and then wilted in the 5th. At Wimbledon I expected Nole to lose a tough one but he went down easy in straights, blowing leads badly in all 3 sets. Yesterday may have been the most understandable of the losses given how Stan played even though Nole was the huge favorite going in. Last year was pretty poorly played for the most part as both he and Nadal had physical issues by the end. And in 2013 USO Nole took until the 2nd set to show up and then he got up 3-1 in the 3rd, disappeared for a few games and then Rafa took the 3rd set after a couple tough games at the end and then Nole gave up.

In regards to the 2013 USO, he didn't give up, Rafa broke Novak's will and spirit(very similar to what Stan did yesterday)

And it was an easy will to break in that match if we go by what happened at 3-2 with Nole serving (not 3-1 I was wrong). I don't think Stan broke Nole's will yesterday, the 4th set was the most competitive of the match.