Monica Seles - Steffi Graf

[britbox]

I've got embroiled in this topic too many times over the years. Monica Seles was a great player but I think their is a lot of casual inaccurate reporting on the degree to which Steffi Graf benefited. So, I've had a stab at a blog post. Look forward to opinion on the content but also the way it's written.

I'm not precious and it's my first real attempt, so rip it to bits...

http://www.tennisfrontier.com/blogs/britbox/monica-seles-stabbing-steffi-grafs-legacy/

 

[Kieran]

I read it and like the way it's written. This is one of sport's great alt-history, conspiracy theory stories, but the real criminal got off lightly, as you pointed out.

Graf had nine slams in the bag before Seles won her first, then Seles became a major force in the women's game. I think if we look at Seles-Graf at slam level before the stabbing (8-11 in Steffi's favour) and then after the stabbing (1-11 in Steffi's favour) we can see a major shift in the slam winning momentum right there.

And we can pinpoint exactly when this shift occurred.

But we can't say how things would have panned out, and this is why there's so much speculation. Would Seles have gotten a handle on grass? Would Steffi have won the next four slams in a row anyway?

The answers to these are like a lot things in tennis - it depends on which player you prefer. I have no horse in that race, but I think that Seles was heading for more than 9 slams before the stabbing, and Steffi would have had a major rival during that period too, instead of the makeweights that were left to her. In this regard, both players careers can be said to have been adversely affected, but Seles far more so, obviously...

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

Good job BB.
It is so tough to make sense of "what ifs". Like Kieran said, you end up going with who you like and I did not have a horse in that race either. But I always believe tennis is a sport of match-ups, and Seles was very close to being in the head of Steffi at the time of the incident. Would that have been permanent, would Steffi have been able to turn it around, who can say?

 

[jhar26]

Excellent article. Ultimately it's all guess work. There's no way of knowing for sure how good a player Monica would have been without the stabbing. We assume that she was at her peak when it happened, but maybe she would have improved even more without it, we don't know. Having said that, when I pictured both players in my mind I always felt that Steffi was the better player. But records aren't made in my mind of course. My guess would be that Monica would probably have ended up winning a few of Steffi's slams and perhaps some that others ended up winning. Steffi's slam count would be somewhere in the region of Chris and Martina and Monica's in the region of Serena. In the end it wouldn't have had a serious impact on Steffi's status in the game although Monica might rank a few spots higher on most people's ATG ranking list.

 

[jhar26]

Britbox (or anyone else for that matter) - would you agree that their USO final of 1995 was the defining moment of their rivalry, especially from Steffi's perspective? For Monica it was pretty much a "I have nothing to lose" type of match. She had been away for more than two years and getting to the final was already a huge achievement for her. But for Steffi it was in a way the match of her life. One that she ABSOLUTELY HAD to win. If she had lost that one people really would have questionned everything she had achieved during Seles' absence. But by winning it she made those achievements legitimate. I think that 1995 USO match was a really huge, huge match for Graf, and the pressure she must have felt must have been immense.

 

[El Dude]

You folks are so non-committal! Of course we can't know, but why not speculate?

One thing you didn't include in your excellent piece, britbox, is that before the stabbing Seles had won seven of the last eight Slams she had participated in - a remarkable feat - including 2-1 vs. Graf at Slams during that span. I see no reason why she shouldn't have at least come close to continuing that pace; she was only 19 when she was stabbed, and while female tennis players seem to peak earlier than men - more like 18-24- she was on the early side of her peak.

That said, I don't see a ton of Slams taken away from Graf. Probably the '94 Australian Open, maybe 1-2 French Opens and 1-2 US Opens. That's a range of 3-5, in my book. So if we take off 4 and add them to Seles, Steffi still ends with 18, Seles 13. But that doesn't count other Slams she would have won due to sustained excellence, conditioning, and confidence.

So it is my view that Seles was, at her peak, one of the greatest female tennis players in history - equal to Graf, Serena, Navratilova, Court and Evert at their best. Actually, I might place her 6th behind those five, and only then because of her career from mid-93 on being relatively pedestrian. I think if she hadn't been stabbed she would have managed 15+ Slams and be in the conversation with the others for GOAT.

But in the end, we can never know, which is sad.

 

[Billie]

Written by a Graf fan, obviously.

We don't know how their respective careers would have progressed had Monica not been stabbed. We can speculate only.

As a person who was born in the same country as Monica, I was mesmerizmed with her intensity on court. I had never seen anything like that before, not in Martina or Chris, let alone other "regular" players. Jelena Gencic is an old tennis coach from Serbia and she said that Monica and Nole were two very special people and tennis talents. She dubbed them great after spending a couple of weeks with them. All kids from that part of the world would go to see Ms Gencic if they wanted a professional opinion about their talents. But not many get to be called great and potential #1.

People argue so much about technique and the way how somebody hits their shots, but they completely forget about phychological aspect, which is so important especially in an individual sport.

I think that Monica would grow as a tennis player more, improve in all aspects of tennis game and certainly win a lot more slams. I can't explain to you what a traumatic event like that can do to a young person. Especially at a time when nobody really can help you seek justice. I don't think people can understand any of that untill they experience how it is when somebody is gunning for you in the worst possible way. Monica was never the same, even though she came back to competition, she wasn't the same player because she wasn't the same person. For somebody who remembered and admired her when she was fearless little Mo, I was sad to see her struggle after the comeback.

Graf is a great player, but she did not endear herself to me (and I am just honest about it). She complained that WTA kept Monica's ranking as #1 when she finally came back, never reached out to her, never publicly tried to campain against violence in tennis or anything like that. She is just too cold and calculated for my taste. Sport is great, but there are bigger things than tennis.

 

[britbox]

The thing is she didn't struggle when she first came back. She won the Canadian Open (winning the final 6-0,6-1). She then went to the US Open and didn't drop a set until she reached final and faced Graf. She then went and won the Australian Open (Graf was absent). She got injured before the French and got knocked out in the QF). She never did much at Wimbledon (her worst surface) but returned to the US Open again in the September and got to the final again without dropping a set... before facing Graf again. If she hadn't had Graf to contend with at the US Open she'd likely have had 3 majors in 13 months.

It was after this that her Dad fell ill with cancer, she got very depressed and put on a lot of weight.

As I mentioned in the article - the stabbing was a tragedy and probably cost her some majors. But from 1996 onwards, I can't see her career trajectory being much different.

As for Graf - I don't understand what you mean by campaigning for an end to violence in tennis. There wasn't an epidemic of violence - it was more of a "one off" incident. The only other violent incidents I can recall are brawls between Serbian and Croatian football fans in the stands. Usually at the AO.

I'm not sure what Graf could have done other than suggest a couple of extra security guards around the players... and to be honest, Steffi Graf was completely blameless anyway.

 

[britbox]

You folks are so non-committal! Of course we can't know, but why not speculate?

One thing you didn't include in your excellent piece, britbox, is that before the stabbing Seles had won seven of the last eight Slams she had participated in - a remarkable feat - including 2-1 vs. Graf at Slams during that span. I see no reason why she shouldn't have at least come close to continuing that pace; she was only 19 when she was stabbed, and while female tennis players seem to peak earlier than men - more like 18-24- she was on the early side of her peak.

That said, I don't see a ton of Slams taken away from Graf. Probably the '94 Australian Open, maybe 1-2 French Opens and 1-2 US Opens. That's a range of 3-5, in my book. So if we take off 4 and add them to Seles, Steffi still ends with 18, Seles 13. But that doesn't count other Slams she would have won due to sustained excellence, conditioning, and confidence.

So it is my view that Seles was, at her peak, one of the greatest female tennis players in history - equal to Graf, Serena, Navratilova, Court and Evert at their best. Actually, I might place her 6th behind those five, and only then because of her career from mid-93 on being relatively pedestrian. I think if she hadn't been stabbed she would have managed 15+ Slams and be in the conversation with the others for GOAT.

But in the end, we can never know, which is sad.

El Dude - Look at what Graf was doing in from mid-90 through 1992. She had totally dominated the sport prior to that period. She was in pretty much every major final. 13 consecutive major finals going back to 1987.

So if Seles won only 2 of her 7 majors by having to go through Graf, then what was happening to Steffi during that period?

Graf had a tumultuous period in that timeframe - their was the big blackmail scandal that had her hounded by a media scrum -- resulting in her publically breaking down in tears at Wimbledon. She fractured a thumb, she missed part of a season with Rubella including an AO and had some of her worst results in years. She lost to Nav for the first time in 4 years at the US, she got battered by Sanchez in Paris, getting bagelled for the first time since 1984. She even had a 4-8 H2H with Sabatini during that patch. Outside of that slump, she was 25-3 against Gabby.

So maybe Seles had an opportunity there that she took.

As for post stabbing - see comments in response to Billie. 3 major finals in 13 months including an AO title. Ask yourself the question, if Seles won the AO in 1996 then why didn't she repeat in 1997, 1998? She was out injured. She missed 5 post-stabbing majors due to injury. I find it difficult to imagine she would never have been injured if the stabbing hadn't taken place. Also that her career trajectory would have been any different post-1996. Largely because she couldn't maintain the level she had even AFTER the incident further down the line.

 

[Kieran]

I like El Dude's post. We can see clearly a momentum shift after Seles was stabbed. She won 8 slams to Steffi's 2, and then after the stabbing she won 1 to Steffi's 11.

This isn't a coincidence. There's a point in time we can recognise and it's the point of Parche's knife.

She was never the same after the stabbing, no matter that she played great here and there. The intensity wasn't the same. Seles was a beast before the stabbing. But we can't tell how many she'd have won or how many Steffi would have won. We only have what was.

Question for Britbox!

Straight after the stabbing, Steffi won four slams in a row, against a series of makeweights and lumpen fodder. Do you really believe she'd have won four in a row if Seles hadn't been assulted?

I know, you analysed it very well in your blog, and most likely answered this above, but really, I don't see it...

 

[britbox]

I like El Dude's post. We can see clearly a momentum shift after Seles was stabbed. She won 8 slams to Steffi's 2, and then after the stabbing she won 1 to Steffi's 11.

This isn't a coincidence. There's a point in time we can recognise and it's the point of Parche's knife.

She was never the same after the stabbing, no matter that she played great here and there. The intensity wasn't the same. Seles was a beast before the stabbing. But we can't tell how many she'd have won or how many Steffi would have won. We only have what was.

Question for Britbox!

Straight after the stabbing, Steffi won four slams in a row, against a series of makeweights and lumpen fodder. Do you really believe she'd have won four in a row if Seles hadn't been assulted?

I know, you analysed it very well in your blog, and most likely answered this above, but really, I don't see it...

Questions to Kieran:

If you don't count things after the stabbing, do you still count Monica's 9th major in Australia? At the time, everybody was saying she was back.

Do you remember the 95 or 96 US Opens? Seles didn't drop a set and was handing out bagels for fun until she met Graf in the final. Somebody she had never previously beaten on a fast hardcourt... and never would.

After Graf went to 13 consecutive grand slam finals, do you appreciate she started hitting a slump when the blackmail scandal erupted, compounded by injuries, getting beaten by players she had previously owned, missing her first major with injury and highlighted by publically breaking down in tears at Wimbledon? She didn't make the finals for 6 of the 8 majors - quite a contrast from her previous dominance and consecutive appearances in major finals.

As for your question, IF Monica was around then I suspect she would have had a good chance in Paris and Australia. I mentioned that in the Blog. However, Graf was actually beginning to rise and meet the challenge before the stabbing. Seles 10-8 final set decider on Graf's worst surface was well earned but outside of that, Graf was beating her more often than not.

It's kind of interesting because you can't bottle time. 19 year old Seles never got injured.

The reality is she got older she did get injured like all players.
She missed 5 later slams through injury. She ended up having other off-court issues (like most players).

People don't take that into account when handing out hypothetical majors. That was the purpose of the blog - it wasn't to suggest she wouldn't have won more, it was to look at each major individually, and when you break it down, slam by slam, then some of the hypothetical numbers bandied around look vastly inflated. It's a romantic story, but it's fiction. Graf's titles are in the non-fiction section of the library.

 

[El Dude]

Britbox, I think you sell Seles a bit short and, to be honest, seem to have written that piece with a tendency towards trying to support Graf's greatness. No problem with that, but it does seem like you've got a bias here.

For me it is hard imagining that a 19-year old with 8 Slams wouldn't have piled on many more. Monica won her 8th Slam just a month or so after turning 19. Steffi was amidst her great 1988 campaign when she turned 19 - but at the same age Monica won her 8th, she was between her 3rd and 4th. That is not to sell Steffi short at all, but just pointing out how amazing Monica's start had been.

To put that in context, at the same age (19 and change) Chris Evert had two Slam wins and Martina Navratilova didn't win her first until age 21. Of course a fast start doesn't automatically equate with a huge Slam total - Martina Hingis won all five of her Slams before her 19th birthday - but it does mean something.

The sad part is that we didn't get to see what could have been one of the greatest rivalries in tennis history. I imagine that Graf and Seles would have been duking it out throughout the 90s and both would have ended with 15+ Slams.

 

[britbox]

Britbox, I think you sell Seles a bit short and, to be honest, seem to have written that piece with a tendency towards trying to support Graf's greatness. No problem with that, but it does seem like you've got a bias here.

For me it is hard imagining that a 19-year old with 8 Slams wouldn't have piled on many more. Monica won her 8th Slam just a month or so after turning 19. Steffi was amidst her great 1988 campaign when she turned 19 - but at the same age Monica won her 8th, she was between her 3rd and 4th. That is not to sell Steffi short at all, but just pointing out how amazing Monica's start had been.

To put that in context, at the same age (19 and change) Chris Evert had two Slam wins and Martina Navratilova didn't win her first until age 21. Of course a fast start doesn't automatically equate with a huge Slam total - Martina Hingis won all five of her Slams before her 19th birthday - but it does mean something.

The sad part is that we didn't get to see what could have been one of the greatest rivalries in tennis history. I imagine that Graf and Seles would have been duking it out throughout the 90s and both would have ended with 15+ Slams.

The purpose was looking at it from a Graf standpoint, so it's fair point. But it's also to highlight some casual numbers that often get bandied around without any detail.

As I mentioned above, other events occurred during Seles career that get overlooked. i.e. injuries, off-court problems, the death of her father, weight issues... These weren't issues when she went on her great run. She was out injured for 3 Australian Opens after the stabbing so she could never have won them anyway. It's things like this that get overlooked when doing hypothetical slam counting on a very casual basis.

Am I selling Seles short? I said I thought she would probably win more, but I would have said the same if John McEnroe had been stabbed at the end of 1984, Mats Wilander in 1988. If Nadal had been stabbed in 2010, I'm sure Djokovic's achievements would have been given an asterix in some quarters. The point is future events are anything but predictable, but history is set in stone.

I'm not sure the slams at a certain age is that relevant. You provided some good examples yourself.

 

[Kieran]

Questions to Kieran:

If you don't count things after the stabbing, do you still count Monica's 9th major in Australia? At the time, everybody was saying she was back.

I didn't say we don't count things after the stabbing. I said the stabbing was an obvious turning point in their slam winning momentum.

I agree with the rest of it and I'm sure Steffi was affected by all that stuff adversely.

And her career was affected by Monica's stabbing positively. But we'll never know the extent. It's all guesswork, and that's what makes it so big a topic. However, Steffi was also a smaller victim of the stabbing because this conjecture exists...

 

[britbox]

I imagine that Graf and Seles would have been duking it out throughout the 90s and both would have ended with 15+ Slams.

There lies the inspiration for the blog in the first place. You've already removed 7 majors from Graf... so I'd be interested roughly where she loses those seven?

 

[Kieran]

You've already removed 7 majors from Graf... so I'd be interested roughly where she loses those seven?

The first place to look is usually under the sofa cushions...

 

[britbox]

Questions to Kieran:

If you don't count things after the stabbing, do you still count Monica's 9th major in Australia? At the time, everybody was saying she was back.

I didn't say we don't count things after the stabbing. I said the stabbing was an obvious turning point in their slam winning momentum.

I agree with the rest of it and I'm sure Steffi was affected by all that stuff adversely.

And her career was affected by Monica's stabbing positively. But we'll never know the extent. It's all guesswork, and that's what makes it so big a topic. However, Steffi was also a smaller victim of the stabbing because this conjecture exists...

After Graf won those 4 majors successively, what was behind her loss of momentum after the Australian Open in 94? She didn't appear in another major final until the French in 1995.

It wasn't Seles. She wasn't even playing. Steffi was playing injured with a back brace during 1994, got knocked out of Wimbledon in the first round, only entered the US Open at last minute due to nagging injuries and missed the AO altogether. Topped off by a tax evasion inquiry. Sound familiar? Much like 91/92 her form suffered due to injury and off-court problems. At that point it was the biggest drought of her career. Monica Seles wasn't a factor.

Graf came back to full fitness and went on another slam winning rampage. The point being that Graf's peaks and valleys during her career didn't have a whole lot to do with Monica Seles, but more to do with Steffi Graf.

 

[El Dude]

Britbox, I think you make a good case for Graf, don't get me wrong. I also agree with you that Monica rose while Steffi was in a lull. Furthermore, I wouldn't take 7 Slams way from Graf - I think, at most, 4-5 (and maybe not even that). I wrote "15+" more to include Seles in the range, not that I think Graf would have won "only" 15. Graf was awesome and, I think, has as good a case as anyone for the women's GOAT. In another thread I even mentioned her as my choice (although, in the end, I think you can make a perhaps equally compelling case for Court, Evert, or Navratilova). I just think her numbers are a BIT padded by Seles' career derailment - to the tune of 2-5 Slams or so, probably 3-4. But even if we take away 4 she's tied with Evert and Navratilova, and of course we can't and shouldn't take away any of them.

I think my main point of disagreement is not that you over-tout Graf, but that you under-sell Seles. Sure, there was no guarantee that she would have continued at her pace - but the fact that she had won seven of the last eight Slams she had participated in is just incredible. I just see no reason to have expected a huge drop-off barring something catastrophic - which happened. Why wouldn't that pace continue, at least for a time? Even if Graf returned to peak form, Monica could have continued to win 1-2 Slams a year for half a decade or more. Could not all of those other factors you mentioned been reduced or even not present at all without the massive psychological impact of the stabbing?

It isn't just the stabbing, but the fact that she lost three years of her career when she was at her absolute peak. It would be like Roger Federer going out after the 2006 Australian Open and being out until late 2008 or 2009. I can't imagine him coming back and doing much (although the age range is quite different).

Frankly there just is no comparison. We've never seen a player miss three years at her (or his) very peak of performance. That's the tragedy of it. And even if Steffi would have gotten the upper hand and won more Slams than not against Monica, I imagine Monica would have been a close second and been there right with her in the rankings. But instead, from 1993 to Martina Hingis's great 1997, we have a huge drop-off from Graf - to Sanchez Vicario, Martinez, Pierce, etc. Some very good players, but somewhat reminiscent of the late 90s field after Sampras and Agassi.

So at the least I think we can say that Seles would have been the Agassi to Graf's Sampras, or the Nadal to Graf's Federer (at least 2005-07), and perhaps more than that. But alas, we'll never know. What we do know is that Graf is one of four candidates for GOAT, and Seles was one of the greatest of all time for a few short years. I don't think we can take that away from her. Just as Graf won 22 Slams no matter who she was playing against, Seles did win 7 of 8 Slams during a time when Graf was within her peak range. No small feat, that.

 

[britbox]

Britbox, I think you make a good case for Graf, don't get me wrong. I also agree with you that Monica rose while Steffi was in a lull. Furthermore, I wouldn't take 7 Slams way from Graf - I think, at most, 4-5 (and maybe not even that). I wrote "15+" more to include Seles in the range, not that I think Graf would have won "only" 15. Graf was awesome and, I think, has as good a case as anyone for the women's GOAT. In another thread I even mentioned her as my choice (although, in the end, I think you can make a perhaps equally compelling case for Court, Evert, or Navratilova). I just think her numbers are a BIT padded by Seles' career derailment - to the tune of 2-5 Slams or so, probably 3-4. But even if we take away 4 she's tied with Evert and Navratilova, and of course we can't and shouldn't take away any of them.

I think my main point of disagreement is not that you over-tout Graf, but that you under-sell Seles. Sure, there was no guarantee that she would have continued at her pace - but the fact that she had won seven of the last eight Slams she had participated in is just incredible. I just see no reason to have expected a huge drop-off barring something catastrophic - which happened. Why wouldn't that pace continue, at least for a time? Even if Graf returned to peak form, Monica could have continued to win 1-2 Slams a year for half a decade or more. Could not all of those other factors you mentioned been reduced or even not present at all without the massive psychological impact of the stabbing?

It isn't just the stabbing, but the fact that she lost three years of her career when she was at her absolute peak. It would be like Roger Federer going out after the 2006 Australian Open and being out until late 2008 or 2009. I can't imagine him coming back and doing much (although the age range is quite different).

Frankly there just is no comparison. We've never seen a player miss three years at her (or his) very peak of performance. That's the tragedy of it. And even if Steffi would have gotten the upper hand and won more Slams than not against Monica, I imagine Monica would have been a close second and been there right with her in the rankings. But instead, from 1993 to Martina Hingis's great 1997, we have a huge drop-off from Graf - to Sanchez Vicario, Martinez, Pierce, etc. Some very good players, but somewhat reminiscent of the late 90s field after Sampras and Agassi.

So at the least I think we can say that Seles would have been the Agassi to Graf's Sampras, or the Nadal to Graf's Federer (at least 2005-07), and perhaps more than that. But alas, we'll never know. What we do know is that Graf is one of four candidates for GOAT, and Seles was one of the greatest of all time for a few short years. I don't think we can take that away from her. Just as Graf won 22 Slams no matter who she was playing against, Seles did win 7 of 8 Slams during a time when Graf was within her peak range. No small feat, that.

Well, the intention of the Blog was took look at it from the Graf perspective and it's pretty easy for me to do as I was admittedly a Graf fanatic back in the day. The idea was more related to what people take away from Graf... very casually in most instances.

I'd put Seles chances as above average in 3 of majors with a huge assumption she was fully fit, had no issues and was playing at the same level as she was in 92,93. I do think there would be other opportunites for her when Graf wasn't on the other side of the net, so you'd give her an even greater likelihood of taking some of those.

But post 1996 I don't think her career trajectory would have been any different. We know when she would have been injured, we know about the off-court problems and we know about the depression regarding her father and coaches death and we know about the subsequent weight issues. Those wouldn't have changed in any event. So as far as I can see the window of opportunity that was lost was 1993-1995.

 

[El Dude]

Again, I appreciate your appreciation of Graf! She was amazing and nothing can be taken from her.

But I also disagree with you that Seles' career would have followed the same course post-1996 that it did. We don't know if she would have had weight problems, or if that was a coping mechanism. We don't know how she would have responded to her father's and coach's deaths - if she would have been more resilient without the "psychic wound" that the stabbing inflicted. We can't underestimate the impact that psychology has on everything else in one's life.

That said, the same basic argument against David Nalbandian's "neo-greatness" applies: In the end, what ifs, shouldas and couldas don't go in the record books. An aspect of greatness is mentality, and just as Nalbandian--despite having the physical talent--didn't have the mentality of a great, so too did Monica Seles fall short of the inner circle of women's greats. If you take her career up to the point of the stabbing and project it in any way other than the most pessimistic, she would have been an all-time great - one of a Big Five. But in the end that didn't happen and the history books show a clear Big Four (unless Serena can keep it up for another two or three years).

p.s. On a side note, it would be interesting to compare the careers of the Big Four to the careers of Seles, Hingis and Serena, all of whom faced significant setbacks that kept them from fully actualizing their talent. All three had GOAT talent, but all three faced different kinds of set-backs that kept them shy of the very inner circle to varying degrees.

p.p.s. And just as the holy grail of impossible multi-generational matchups on the men's side would have been peak Sampras vs. peak Federer (or perhaps peak Borg vs. peak Nadal), I would have loved to see peak Graf vs. peak Serena. Just imagine that. The consensus seems to be that, at her very best, Serena was the greatest women's player of all time, but a peak Graf might have found a way to win - she seemed to have a more diverse game, if I remember correctly.