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Some of you might remember this chart that I've posted several times. The title should be self-explanatory, but basically it includes all big title winners of the Open Era by the age they won their first big title. It is color coded by career big titles, in different categories. I've also added a selection of active ATP 500 and ATP 250 winners below by their current age, as well as a few notable players without any titles.
I've added Jack Draper (age 23) and Jakob Mensik (age 19) since the last time I posted this; Alexei Popyrin is also very recent.
A few comments:
1. The Title of the Thread. Mensik became just the 14th player of the Open Era to win his first big title as a teenager. Notice that of the 14, eight went on to win 6+ Slams, and a ninth will almost certainly win 6 (Alcaraz); ten of the 14 won at least one Slam, and one is TBD (Rune).
Meaning, of the 11 retired or almost retired players in this category, only two players--Alberto Mancini and Andrei Medvedev--never won Slams. 9 out of 11 did, and 8 out of 11 became ATGs, with the 9th (Chang) one of the very best single Slam players ever.
Both Rune and Mensik are TBD, but based on historical precedents both have a good chance of becoming ATGs, or at least nearly great players. As of now, it is hard imagining Rune becoming an ATG, but on the other hand, history supports that he'll probably win at least one Slam. But it is hard not thinking that he'll join with Mancini and Andrei Medvedev as "disappointing prodigies."
2. "One Big Title Wonders." I have often pointed out that quite a few "One Slam Wonders" were lesser players than some of the very best Slamless players. We can compare Gaudio vs Rios, Edmondson vs. Okker, Costa vs. Mecir, etc etc. Well, "One Big Title Wonders" are even more dubious, in terms of marking their overall career performance. You can even see how some of the players in blue are better players than some of the players in yellow. Among active players, cmpare Casper Ruud or Matteo Berrettini to Alexei Popyrin or Borna Coric.
3. The Bell Curve. In a way, this chart is interesting because of how predictable and obvious it is. You can see how the vast majority of players won their first big title by age 26, after which there is a huge drop-off and then 1-4 players per age through age 32. You can see the basic pattern mirrored at every level of accomplishment: every 6+ Slam winner won their first by age 21, which is also the age that Jannik Sinner won his first. The 2-4 Slam winners are tricky, because Stan Wawrinka became a big outlier; before him, every 2-4 Slam winner had won their first big title by age 24, and then Stan won his first age age 27. As I've often said, this gives hope to players on the back-end of their 20s. Interestingly enough, Stan is also the only multi-big title winner to win his first after age 24.
4. Beware Age 32 (or 26?). The chart ends at age 32 because no player has won their first big title at age 33 or older. Right now the 33+ year old with the best chance of winning their first is probably the 38-year old Gael Monfils, though that seems very unlikely. Not saying it will never happen, but it isn't likely in the next few years. That said, age 26 seems to be an important year, because of the drop-off after of first big title winners. So for players age 27 or older, time is running out. Meaning, if you turn 27 and you haven't won a big title yet, chances are you never will.
5. Who's Next? This is purely speculative, but the most likely candidates are probably either one of the better players in their mid-20s like De Minaur, Berrettini or Ruud, maybe Paul or Humbert. Of the young guys, players like Fils, Tien and Fonseca seem like more a matter of when than if; probably Shelton, as well. There's another dozen or so guys in the age 23-28 range that all are, at least, darkhorses, though probably only a few will actually end up winning big titles.
I don't think Fonzie is quite ready to win a big title, but I also wouldn't be surprised if he's next. Look at how Mensik "clicked on" to a higher level in the SF and F of Miami. The same could happen to Fonseca at any time, even though I still think we're at least a half dozen or more tournaments from that. But I do think he'll probably win his first within the next 15 months (by RG '26), if not later this year. I think someone like Fils or Shelton is a bit "riper" for their first, but who knows.
I've added Jack Draper (age 23) and Jakob Mensik (age 19) since the last time I posted this; Alexei Popyrin is also very recent.
A few comments:
1. The Title of the Thread. Mensik became just the 14th player of the Open Era to win his first big title as a teenager. Notice that of the 14, eight went on to win 6+ Slams, and a ninth will almost certainly win 6 (Alcaraz); ten of the 14 won at least one Slam, and one is TBD (Rune).
Meaning, of the 11 retired or almost retired players in this category, only two players--Alberto Mancini and Andrei Medvedev--never won Slams. 9 out of 11 did, and 8 out of 11 became ATGs, with the 9th (Chang) one of the very best single Slam players ever.
Both Rune and Mensik are TBD, but based on historical precedents both have a good chance of becoming ATGs, or at least nearly great players. As of now, it is hard imagining Rune becoming an ATG, but on the other hand, history supports that he'll probably win at least one Slam. But it is hard not thinking that he'll join with Mancini and Andrei Medvedev as "disappointing prodigies."
2. "One Big Title Wonders." I have often pointed out that quite a few "One Slam Wonders" were lesser players than some of the very best Slamless players. We can compare Gaudio vs Rios, Edmondson vs. Okker, Costa vs. Mecir, etc etc. Well, "One Big Title Wonders" are even more dubious, in terms of marking their overall career performance. You can even see how some of the players in blue are better players than some of the players in yellow. Among active players, cmpare Casper Ruud or Matteo Berrettini to Alexei Popyrin or Borna Coric.
3. The Bell Curve. In a way, this chart is interesting because of how predictable and obvious it is. You can see how the vast majority of players won their first big title by age 26, after which there is a huge drop-off and then 1-4 players per age through age 32. You can see the basic pattern mirrored at every level of accomplishment: every 6+ Slam winner won their first by age 21, which is also the age that Jannik Sinner won his first. The 2-4 Slam winners are tricky, because Stan Wawrinka became a big outlier; before him, every 2-4 Slam winner had won their first big title by age 24, and then Stan won his first age age 27. As I've often said, this gives hope to players on the back-end of their 20s. Interestingly enough, Stan is also the only multi-big title winner to win his first after age 24.
4. Beware Age 32 (or 26?). The chart ends at age 32 because no player has won their first big title at age 33 or older. Right now the 33+ year old with the best chance of winning their first is probably the 38-year old Gael Monfils, though that seems very unlikely. Not saying it will never happen, but it isn't likely in the next few years. That said, age 26 seems to be an important year, because of the drop-off after of first big title winners. So for players age 27 or older, time is running out. Meaning, if you turn 27 and you haven't won a big title yet, chances are you never will.
5. Who's Next? This is purely speculative, but the most likely candidates are probably either one of the better players in their mid-20s like De Minaur, Berrettini or Ruud, maybe Paul or Humbert. Of the young guys, players like Fils, Tien and Fonseca seem like more a matter of when than if; probably Shelton, as well. There's another dozen or so guys in the age 23-28 range that all are, at least, darkhorses, though probably only a few will actually end up winning big titles.
I don't think Fonzie is quite ready to win a big title, but I also wouldn't be surprised if he's next. Look at how Mensik "clicked on" to a higher level in the SF and F of Miami. The same could happen to Fonseca at any time, even though I still think we're at least a half dozen or more tournaments from that. But I do think he'll probably win his first within the next 15 months (by RG '26), if not later this year. I think someone like Fils or Shelton is a bit "riper" for their first, but who knows.
