Korean Peninsula tension

[mrzz]

I wonder how the current escalation of threats is being perceived in different parts of the world... DPKR is the spear head of a deeper strategical stand off between the US and China/Russia, but anyway we have two admittedly juvenile minds with the finger close to the trigger. I guess I´ll search for English language Japanese and South Korean news pages...

BB, how you see this?

 

[Federberg]

It's a fascinating stand off mate. I do think that Trump is trying to pressure China into acting. In a way, he's done well to try to put the onus on China, but the bottom line is that there's only one actor in this drama that has every right to consider itself under existential danger and that's DPRK. I think this type of strategy might have worked decades ago, but not in the modern information age. Everyone pretty much knows what Trump is trying to do, even though he's doing it in a typically clumsy way. As things stand, it looks to me that Russia and China are far more likely to be winners when all is said and done. The more Trump tries to escalate this the more any dampening of tensions and diplomatic solution will work against US interests. The simple fact is that it's the US which is just a few hundred miles away from Chinese and Russian borders. They are simply not going to accept any peaceful outcome that alters DPRK without concessions from the US. Which is why in the end this hysteria is puzzling to me. DPRK has had nuclear capability for a long time. They would never use it against the US, but from their perspective they have to threaten to remain relevant. Everyone knows this. This situation should not be held captive to the ego of an unfit President in my view. As for any sort of war, he'll blow any chance of re-election because this is not the Middle East. There will be blood and lots of it on both sides. Taking nuclear weapons off the table, conventional actions will be attritional and there would be way more bodybags going back to the US than in any Middle Eastern adventure, that won't play well with Trump's isolationist base..

 

[Nekro]

I wonder how the current escalation of threats is being perceived in different parts of the world... DPKR is the spear head of a deeper strategical stand off between the US and China/Russia, but anyway we have two admittedly juvenile minds with the finger close to the trigger. I guess I´ll search for English language Japanese and South Korean news pages...

BB, how you see this?

imo it's just another circus while Trump's peeps are entrenching themselves....

There are extremely grim faces behind Trump who know what they're doing, they won't screw up by attacking for real.....

Most people are expecting impeachment and "end game" very soon, i'm expecting Putin level dictatorship and long years of Trump to come.....

 

[britbox]

I wonder how the current escalation of threats is being perceived in different parts of the world... DPKR is the spear head of a deeper strategical stand off between the US and China/Russia, but anyway we have two admittedly juvenile minds with the finger close to the trigger. I guess I´ll search for English language Japanese and South Korean news pages...

BB, how you see this?

Not sure to be honest mate. I'm more in line with Federberg's thinking that from the DRPK end it's just more saber rattling from a pantomime villain. Trump is predictably unpredictable... and it wouldn't surprise me if he took some action. I wasn't expecting him to pump any tomahawk missiles into Syria when he did... no idea what he's going to do with North Korea or what forces are at play with Russia/China. I generally brush off North Korea stuff... but the ante seems to have really been upped over the last day or two, so intrigued...

 

[mrzz]

Not sure to be honest mate. I'm more in line with Federberg's thinking that from the DRPK end it's just more saber rattling from a pantomime villain. Trump is predictably unpredictable... and it wouldn't surprise me if he took some action. I wasn't expecting him to pump any tomahawk missiles into Syria when he did... no idea what he's going to do with North Korea or what forces are at play with Russia/China. I generally brush off North Korea stuff... but the ante seems to have really been upped over the last day or two, so intrigued...

But that´s exactly the scary part. If "some action" involves any kind of military action, there is a different-than-zero chance that DPKR could go nuclear. Even if it just one artifact that blows up lost in the sea 500 KM´s away from Guam before DPKR is blown to pieces, there are world wide consequences. Or they could decimate Guam or some part of South Korea. It is far-fetched for the real world, I know, but not impossible. And once we go that route, who knows what comes next. It is a door we should not be knocking on.

While I agree with both of you guys line of thinking, and also with Nekro´s point that there are sober, smarter and stronger forces behind Trump, sometimes the system is hostage of itself: puppets or not, those two (Trump and Kim) are the guys with the finger on the trigger, and things are personally oriented enough to allow that one of those brats cause heavy damage out of some idiotic outburst.

I ask you specifically, Britbox, as you would guess that Australian press (and people) are following this quite closely... let us know when you start to dig bunkers!

 

[Nekro]

I'm more in line with Federberg's thinking that from the DRPK end it's just more saber rattling from a pantomime villain.

u read this BB? http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/08/09/the-game-is-over-and-north-korea-has-won/

 

[Federberg]

But that´s exactly the scary part. If "some action" involves any kind of military action, there is a different-than-zero chance that DPKR could go nuclear. Even if it just one artifact that blows up lost in the sea 500 KM´s away from Guam before DPKR is blown to pieces, there are world wide consequences. Or they could decimate Guam or some part of South Korea. It is far-fetched for the real world, I know, but not impossible. And once we go that route, who knows what comes next. It is a door we should not be knocking on.

While I agree with both of you guys line of thinking, and also with Nekro´s point that there are sober, smarter and stronger forces behind Trump, sometimes the system is hostage of itself: puppets or not, those two (Trump and Kim) are the guys with the finger on the trigger, and things are personally oriented enough to allow that one of those brats cause heavy damage out of some idiotic outburst.

I ask you specifically, Britbox, as you would guess that Australian press (and people) are following this quite closely... let us know when you start to dig bunkers!

I'm not sure I find Nekro's view (at least as you've represented it) logically consistent. If there are sober guys behind Trump then they have to know that the more powerful participant shouldn't be the one playing a game of brinkmanship. The only rational thing for a group of sober people to do is to reel Trump in, and if he refuses then the 25th amendment might need to be employed. As I see things, the guys behind Trump are trying to follow Trump's lead, he is the Commander in Chief after all. They may well have explained the strategic relationships where DPRK is concerned but Mr Dealmaker is a day trader. You can't day trade your way out of this without losing in the longer term. So far there has not been one single example of successful deal making from Trump. I had hoped that by now he would realise that this is not real estate. Right now I think that we are seeing exactly the same thing we have seen many times over the last six months. Each time there's a moment where Trump ends up saying something like "who knew xxxxx was so complicated". This is not the time to be learning on the job. This is exactly the time where you need the institutional government memory to come to the fore, but instead we have an administration that has done everything it can to get rid of the very personnel that would be critical in this sort of situation.

One thing is patently obvious to the international community. DPRK is not going to launch any strikes. Their sole objective is survival. They'll assert themselves every now and then, bluster and bravado, in order to extort products from outsiders, but that's as far as they'll go. We are now stuck in the very type of crisis situation that we've all been afraid of, with this moron of a President. And if that wasn't bad enough, he's expending energy attacking GOP leaders he'll need in the coming days. I highly doubt Congress will allow Trump to act in this situation, that's the one blessing. It's one thing to launch strikes in the Middle East, this is an entire different basket of do do...

PS, I never thought there would be anything positive about a Trump Presidency, but if it forces Congress to re-assert it's constitutional position then that will be a wonderful thing. Maybe the US can become a less centralised military industrial complex because of the twat. Lord knows he's somehow caused Europe to re-unite in a way that might allow them to survive when I really didn't think the Eurozone stood a chance

 

[Nekro]

I'm not sure I find Nekro's view (at least as you've represented it) logically consistent. If there are sober guys behind Trump then they have to know that the more powerful participant shouldn't be the one playing a game of brinkmanship. The only rational thing for a group of sober people to do is to reel Trump in, and if he refuses then the 25th amendment might need to be employed

You know the people behind him can be sober without having a libtard (or even conservative or whatever) agenda.... They are working for their own interests, making good deals, grabbing more power, now they're gonna make it big....

Actually the only messup in my previous post was that i didn't emphasize Trump's own skills there.... he's not a complete madman either, he's a professional and seasoned criminal too except he's enjoying the show.... he's manifested his criminal mafia mindset many times before, that's the kind on mindset the people behind him have.... They won't throw this great opportunity away on impulse.... like the libtards' been predicting for so long

What i find funny is that the libtards are now talking of the 25th amendment after every non-event just like they were predicting his election failure before..... do libtards have any self-awareness??? According to GSM the end game is damn near.... i'm waiting patiently, i mean they've been shouting "end game" and "he's screwed" so long it has to come sometime...

BTW i would be the happiest if the end came for Trump but i can't see how it's gonna happen, as i see it he's getting stronger every day.....


About the EU, i predicted only the Brits were gonna jump in the well when everybody was saying the opposite, ask BB, he was reading my stuff on t4u.......

 

[Federberg]

It's very difficult to read the stuff you write mate. Define libtard please? As for the rest, I think you underestimate American democracy, it's been around for a while now. There are institutional frameworks that have lasted for centuries. If you're trying to apply the experiences you've had in your own part of the world I think you're on the wrong track

 

[Nekro]

It's very difficult to read the stuff you write mate. Define libtard please? As for the rest, I think you underestimate American democracy, it's been around for a while now. There are institutional frameworks that have lasted for centuries. If you're trying to apply the experiences you've had in your own part of the world I think you're on the wrong track

look in the mirror and see what libtard is...

Yes, at times i think too that i'm underestimating American democracy, but if someone can bring it down it's Trump....

You know who was most correct about Trump? Swish, i don't know if you know him but he predicted everything about the elections and later 100% correctly, he also said "The Don" knows all the tricks....

Oh, and he also said the Saga continues.... so libtards, be scared

 

[Federberg]

So basically you don't know what you mean then?

I could easily label you mate, and I'm guessing I would be a sight more accurate that you seem to be about me. But whatever. I'm going to disengage here.

BB you'll have to remind me how to block people, the accumulation of morons on this forum is getting a bit.... tiresome

 

[Nekro]

So basically you don't know what you mean then?

I could easily label you mate, and I'm guessing I would be a sight more accurate that you seem to be about me. But whatever. I'm going to disengage here.

BB you'll have to remind me how to block people, the accumulation of morons on this forum is getting a bit.... tiresome

dude, don't get hysterical, last time you said you left the forum cause life is too short for this nonsense, now you want to block people? we know you're not gonna do it....

Ofc i know what i mean, libtards are people who go with mainstream libtard opinions, make the mainstream libtard predictions, they're for pc, (if Atlanticist) for discrimination against russia and eastern europe, they are for filling europe with muslim migrants, they are against global warming and for PETA bullshit, for gender fluidity, they are against anti-semitism, everybody knows who libtards are lol....

plz label me and show us how accurate you can be, don't just bluff ard

BTW the fact that you voted for the conservatives in the UK doesn't mean you're not a libtard you're Moxie level libtard but you're trying to act like a man without success

 

[Obsi]

the accumulation of morons...

...like yourself is getting a bit.... tiresome

 

[mrzz]

I'm not sure I find Nekro's view (at least as you've represented it) logically consistent. If there are sober guys behind Trump then they have to know that the more powerful participant shouldn't be the one playing a game of brinkmanship. The only rational thing for a group of sober people to do is to reel Trump in, and if he refuses then the 25th amendment might need to be employed.

What I meant -- or understood (but obviously could not express myself decently), is that I agree that there are people politically more competent behind Trump, as would happen to almost all politicians. Being the ego-centered showman the guy is, with little time or will to try to understand the all important details of real, big world politics, it is obvious that such a group must exist. On the other hand, once he sits on the chair, situation changes. President Trump is far more clumsy and reckless than candidate Trump (and we thought it was impossible...).

Anyway I see your point, and actually I agree he seems to be showing to be completely unfit for the job. But there may be some political calculation behind all this mess. For example, nobody talks anymore about Syria. I am not saying I buy it, just that it is a possibility. Just because I do not agree with a given policy I cannot say that it is not a valid one -- specially when I don't know what is going on behind the scenes.

Time will tell. But, there is a non-zero possibility that Trump is just a guy with bad hair, bad temper and little brains sitting on a pile of nuclear missiles. If time tells this story, we may not be listening.

 

[Federberg]

I hear you buddy. My fear is that the calculation isn't political. This is my biggest fear about Trump. I'm not sure he cares about the vital interests of the country he runs

 

[britbox]

North Korea playing a game of who blinks first, fire a missile over a Japanese island.

 

[Nekro]

North Korea playing a game of who blinks first, fire a missile over a Japanese island.

This confirms what the guy said in the "game is over and north korea has won" article....

Allegedly Trump fired Bannon btw cause he told the truth that there's no military option against North Korea and that pissed Trump off..... well, with the rest of Trump's crew Bannon had a dark future there anyway....

 

[mrzz]

That DRPK already has the capability to nuke all his neighbours is clear. As the negotiation will always be about going back one step, they want to show that they can reach American mainland, so they can surrender this in future negotiations, get the pay back and return to current status (in which they are the only small country holding Nukes, which gives them stability).

Yeah, the guy of the article has a good point. Problem is that in this process one little miss step could cost millions of lives.

 

[Federberg]

Everyone knows DPRK would never fire nuclear weapons. Not often I agree with Bannon, but the US has very few options on this. Military action is completely off the table as there is a serious risk to Seoul. Everyone knows it. And you can forget about DPRK ever giving up the arsenal. Not going to happen. I'm not sure even China or Russia will support that in reality. From their perspective there's a large US base just a few hundred miles away from their borders. They love what DPRK is doing, even if they pretend that they don't. The only scenario where they would enthusiastically support disarmament is if as part of the deal the US leaves ROK.

 

[Federberg]

I would love someone to explain why Trump thinks it's good idea to cancel the free trade agreement with South Korea at this time